Friday, April 15, 2011

Week Three in the books: Now the real election begins

The debate week of the election is now over and the real election campaign is underway.  How do we assess the week gone by?

For the Liberals they had both positives and negatives.   The debates did not help them as much as they would have liked but at the same time they did not hurt them either.  They can take some solace from the fact that 10 million Canadians tuned into watch the debates and that was probably their first look at Mr. Ignatieff without the media or Conservative filter.  Although he did not blow the doors off I would imagine that he did make a reasonably positive impression, one that he can build on for the next two weeks.

The Liberals are showing signs that they are focusing their message with the new healthcare ads.  That is a good start.  Now I would like to see four other ads before the end of the election.  One to tie all of the undemocratic actions of the Conservatives together, including the attempted disenfranchizement of those students in Guelph.  The other three each focusing on jets, jails and corporate tax cuts and contrasting them with the Liberal family plan.  One ad for each of those Conservative priorities.  Then blanket the airwaves with them from now until E-day.

Mr. Ignatieff is still packing them in at rallies and the enthusiasm of Liberals has not waned since the beginning of the election.  That bodes well for the GOTV efforts on May 2 and it could mean those 800,000 or so Liberals who stayed home in 2008 will come out this time.  If they do that will have a profound effect on alot of ridings in this country.

Finally, if you believe the public polls the Liberals have cut the initial Conservative advantage, at the beginning of this campaign, in half.  Not bad when you consider that voters were not really paying attention during the first weeks.  Now that they probably are the Liberals have a great opportunity to keep moving up if they can continue to run a good campaign.

The Conservatives began their week with a controversy and ended it with two more.  In between the debates did not help them or hurt them.  It seems they just cannot run their campaign without stepping in it.  Their position has been on a steady and slow decline even though voters were not paying attention.  If they continue to suffer from more controversies in the next two weeks their fortunes would probably continue to wane, possibly beyond the point of no return.

Of the two controversies today watch the effects of the Guergis controversery.  Her experience could reinforce the notion amongst professional women in this country as to why they do not like nor trust Stephen Harper.  They contributed to costing him majorities on two other occasions and they could do the same thing this time, or worse. 

The NDP had a good week.  The polls tell me so, if you can believe the public polls.  However, one good week out of three is not nearly good enough and it is doubtful that they can sustain it over the next two weeks.  It would not surprise me one bit to see them fade in the coming days and weeks.

The Bloc also had a good week.  However, they are still not doing nearly as well as they did in 2008.  It is an open question as to whether they will be able to sustain their post-debate bounce for the next two weeks.

For the Green Party the debates gave them another opportunity to get noticed by complaining that they were not in the debates.  However, while that might get them some sympathy I doubt that it will get them any votes.

At the third week mark of the campaign it is still a toss-up as to who will win it.  Certainly, the Conservatives have the advantage in the public polls but their campaign is still being beset by scandal and controversy while the campaign of their chief opponent is being run smoothly.  The campaign is still the Conservatives' to lose but they are alot closer to doing so now at the beginning of the real election campaign than they were three weeks ago.


Blogger A Eliz. said...

Would someone please tell me, why Jack Layton is after Ignatieff more than Harper.

April 15, 2011 10:58 PM  
Blogger Frunger said...

Jack Layton is after Iggy because it's Liberal votes that he can steal the easiest. Simple as that.

If he's smart (which I think he is, although he out-thinks himself at times) he should look to replace the Liberals as the left wing alternative.

It's lofty, true, but the NDP have to look 2 to 4 elections down the line if they ever want to run the country.

First step, destroy the Liberal party. He had his chance when Harper tried to kill the subsidy. He needs to hit Iggy hard if he is to make up for that blunder.

April 16, 2011 12:44 AM  
Blogger marie said...

I really believe this was a deal cooked up by Layton and Harper to attack the lIberals at every turn.

Has anyone ever looked closely at Layton during this whole debate stuff. he looks and acts like a roster primped up strutting his feathers and has that sleazy smile all of the time when he attacks the liberals.

I don't trust that man one iota. He and Harper have definitly made a deal and Layton is playing his role to a tee. One cannot trust either of these men, (wimps) these men. They are both blood suckers and have sold their soulsto the devil.

April 16, 2011 2:22 AM  

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