Everybody Needs to Take a Breath

I am seeing alot of hyperbole and hyperventilating from people about these occupations across the country. Some of the claims by their opponents are almost as out there as the "demands" of the occupiers.

First of all Canadian democracy is in no danger. If our democracy was so fragile that a few hundred yahoos could bring it down then it had serious problems before that. That is not the case. Our democracy is very resilient so we can stop worrying about it.

Second, the weakness of the "truckers" and their cause is obvious if you just take a step back. What started out as an occupation of downtown Ottawa has escalated into blockades of several border crossings with the US and word tonight is the beginning of blocking access to the Ottawa airport. Why are they escalating it? Those who agree with them say it is an indication of their increasing strength when in actual fact it is an indication of their weakness. If they were strong and if they really believe they are winning they would not feel the need to escalate. The fact they do speaks volumes.

Third, these occupations are kicking the living shit out of the CPC and Conservative provincial governments. As well, the reactions of these Parties are showing how much trouble each of them are in electorally. Take Ontario. Doug Ford must be getting an earful from his business buddies for not cracking down on the blockade of the Windsor bridge. The amount of business that is being lost by his business buddies is adding up quickly, yet he has not done anything to bring it to a close. The reason why is to do so would probably piss off much of this base and if he is so damned frightened of losing his base, five months out from an election, then his internal polling is telling him that the June election is probably a tossup or worse.

Then there is Alberta. The public polls for Jason Kenney have been gruesome since the Pandemic started and the fact he gave into the occupiers' demands probably means that the public polls are on to something. It will be interesting to see if the occupiers in Alberta will go home. If the do not then he will look even weaker than before and probably finish his chances of being reelected.

It should be noted that both the Ontario and Alberta Conservatives are first term majority governments. Both should be shoe-ins for winning a second mandate, with reduced majorities, but majorities nonetheless. They are showing many signs that they do not believe that will happen the next time they need to face the voters.

Then there is the CPC. Many of the front bench Conservatives came out in support of the occupation and now they have either gone quiet and in the case of their new interim leader she has actually begun to make some statements calling for the blockades to end. Three days ago, during the emergency debate in The House, she gave all but a full throated support to them only to make must less unequivocal statements today. Again, the increasing unpopularity of the blockades is probably being reflected in their internal polling.

The only actor in all of this that does not seem ruffled is the Federal Government. Indeed, the PM gave one of the best speeches of his career during the emergency debate a couple of days ago and he has been given the opportunity to repeat and reinforce the key points of that speech when questioned about the "disloyalty" of those two Quebec MPs. Their outbursts were probably not planned but I believe both went the PM beforehand to let him know they would speak out and the PM and his team had responses at the ready.

As these blockades drag on a critical mass of Canadians will finally decide that something needs to be done to end them, including the use of force. If the police would have used force on day three then the "truckers" would have gained some sympathy and they would have been able to present themselves as martyrs. When they are finally removed in the next week or so they cannot expect any goodwill at all from Canadians.

Also, as these occupations, particularly of the Parliamentary Precinct continue, the Conservatives and the NDP will not be able to resist the government calling a public inquiry into this whole situation. The government will be able to make it a very broad one including having Conservative Members of Parliament having to testify under oath about their involvement in the occupations. Such an inquiry could produce some rather large political bombs before ending with a very interesting report just in time for the next election in about a year.

The Unremarkable Tenure of Erin O'Toole

Back when Erin O'Toole won the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada I stated in this space that he would have to actually lead. He did not so his final fate should surprise no one.

All political parties are multi-headed beasts. The Conservatives are not unique in that sense. The key for any leader of a party is to be able to convince all of the various interests within it to pull in the same direction, to water down their wine sufficiently so that their team stays in power long enough to achieve their objectives in an incremental fashion. Mr. O'Toole did not do that.

In his defence I am not certain any leader would be able to do that with the current Conservative Party of Canada. There may be too many factions who are not willing to compromise and/or think long-term within the Party to make it a viable political party but he should have at least tried and he did not. He pandered or at least attempted to pander but that is not the same.

Also in his defence his predecessor did him no favours by completely shirking his responsibility to renew the CPC after losing in 2015. He had three years to do so and never even attempted to do it. So Mr. O'Toole took over the same party that was created in 2004 and because he always had to put election readiness at the top of his priority list, because of the minority government situation, he could not make any efforts to renew the party either

So now the Conservatives have to elect their fourth leader to face Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in about 18 to 24 months. I am not certain who it will be but he or she is going to face the same problems as Mr. O'Toole and he or she will have to find a way to lead. We will have to see if they can actually do so but as I stated in a recent post the Conservatives might have to be humiliated during the next election to finally kick start the long overdue renewal of the party and to break the logjam of competing and uncompromising interests within the CPC.

It is a Good Thing Jim Watson Decided not to Run Again

Because he would not be able to be elected dog catcher in this city.

Any chance of him winning again was scuppered by the Light Rail Transit fiasco in this city. While it is probably not all of his fault, considering all levels of government had their hands in that particular pie, it still made him unelectable even before this week.

Now the total impotence of the City of Ottawa and Ottawa Police Services, along with their mealy mouthed excuses for that impotence, would have put the final nail into the coffin of his reelection chances. Really, could he have shown any greater weakness than he has in the past few days?

I am not suggesting that the OPS take action to remove the protests as I stated in my previous post. I am suggesting that they take action to contain it. Right now, truckers are allowed to drive around virtually the entire downtown core unopposed. Why? 

Put up barricades at the corner of Wellington and Kent street to the West and where Wellington meets Elgin Street to the East. Then set up barricades at all the cross streets on Queen street to the South. (That is only two blocks south of Parliament Hill) Make certain each barricade has sufficient armed cops to man them, with orders not to fraternize with the protesters. Have actual riot police from the OPS, OPP and RCMP available to move to problem areas. If someone wants leave on foot let them but make it a one way trip and maybe escort them to the VIA Rail station. If they have left a vehicle behind they can arrange to have it shipped back to them, at their own risk and expense and after paying all of the hefty fines, towing and impound fees.

Any truck located outside of that area is to be ticketed and towed if they are breaking any local bylaws, such as parking where they should not be or breaking the noise bylaws of this city.

Of course that is not going to happen and I noticed today that our illustrious Chief of Police has indicated that the OPS will probably need the army to come in and help. Talk about passing the buck. The Trudeau government will deny that because the first place to get help would be from the Ontario Provincial Police and the Mounties but by saying the army is needed the Chief of Police can blame the Feds for the ongoing fiasco and not his incompetence.

If I am a mayoral candidate for the November municipal election part of the platform I would be running on would include a complete overhaul of the OPS senior ranks and the civilian Police Services Committee that oversees the OPS. Every cop who has the word "chief" in his or her title would be fired and every member of the committee would be replaced.

The OPS and the City of Ottawa has been a joke this past week. I have no problem with trying to make certain things do not get out of hand but that does not mean that you become completely paralyzed either. There is much that can be done to contain the protest, which is what most law enforcement organizations do as a matter of course, and which the OPS has not done.

The Police Should not Forcefully Remove the Truckers in Ottawa

As inconvenient as they are and as damaging as they are to the downtown of Ottawa the truckers should not be forcefully removed.

When indigenous people blockaded railroads over the Trans Mountain pipeline the government did not try to bring them down by force despite the clamouring by Conservatives and their cheerleaders in the media to do just that. These truckers should receive the same consideration and I find it kind of ironic that the same people who were preaching restraint for the rail blockade protests are screaming that force be used for the truckers.

The one thing about both protests is the protesters have no political smarts. The railway blockades went on way too long. They did not achieve the objective they were looking to achieve, instead just created badwill towards the protesters and their objective. The same is true of the truckers. With each passing day they become less and less popular and they hurt their erstwhile cause (eliminating the vaccine mandates and COVID restrictions), indeed probably making both more popular. Further they are doing damage to their other unstated objective (getting rid of the Liberal government) because it allows PM Trudeau to look strong and the connection between the truckers and the CPC becomes more noticed with each story about them. My guess is until last night there were many a gritted teeth at CPC HQ because of the slow drip of political damage to the Conservatives caused by what the truckers did and are continuing to do. 

Then word came out that Mr. O'Toole is facing a vote of confidence from his caucus so that might distract CPC HQ for a time. 

Now this protest is just going to go on until the truckers get bored and they drift on back home. (Assuming they can find the fuel to get home). If the organizers would have had any kind of political smarts they would have had their big rally on Saturday, after the big lead up during the preceding week, declared victory and gone home in an organized fashion. They could have organized triumphant gatherings on the way home from supporters to give the impression of momentum for their cause. Thankfully, the organizers are not that smart.

Like the railway blockades the truckers protest in Ottawa will be ancient history before the end of the month and the only thing they will have achieved is an increase in support for vaccine mandates and other public health measures and the further erosion of the CPC as a viable alternative to the Liberals in the eyes of most Canadians, particularly those Canadians that live in the big cities and their suburbs. The very voters the Conservatives need if they ever hope to win power again.

The Liberals need to Win the Next Election in a Landslide

As an avowed liberal this statement could be dismissed as partisanship on my part but I am in earnest.

Although I generally support the Liberals I do know that for our system of government to be effective the governing party needs to be challenged by an effective opposition. It is the only way to guarantee that the governing party will remain honest, competent and that it will continue to work for the greater good. Unfortunately, that has not been the reality for quite some time and it has really been lacking since 2015. In reality the current federal government has been governing virtually unchallenged, despite being a minority government for over two years. And to any Dippers reading this and saying the NDP "forced" the government to develop and implement all of the COVID economic support measures you are flat wrong. There might be some evidence to support the idea that the NDP convinced the government to sweeten the CERB pot but that is about it. The rest all came from the government and the public service that supports it and no amount of historical revisionism will change that fact.

The ineffectiveness of the Conservatives is so glaringly apparent that they had to resort to supporting an antigovernment protest that was organized and dominated by white-supremists and neo-Nazis. Every prominent member of the CPC caucus, including the current and maybe future leadership of the Party, expressed support for them even when it became apparent leading up to Saturday just where the protests were heading. So when they went where they were expected and had the added bonus of them desecrating the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, the War Memorial and the statue of Terry Fox these same Conservatives had to play down their support and look to their cheerleaders in the media to try to redirect people from those events. Crucially however, these Conservatives and their media cheerleaders did not condemn, or disavow the protesters, instead making mealy mouth statements about "bad apples" amongst the protesters.

If you are a Conservative supporter or a member of the Party I really have to ask if the current leadership and party establishment, which condoned the protesters weekend behavior, really represents your values? I know that for many Conservative supporters it does not because I personally know more than a few Conservative supporters who have expressed their concerns. So what are you going to do about it?

I would suggest you do what the Liberals did. From 2006 until 2015 the Liberals did not have an answer for Stephen Harper and in 2011 they were humiliated. That humiliation turned out to be a blessing in disguise because it finally allowed the Party to toss the old Liberal establishment over the side and enter the 21st Century with new leadership and purpose. The result is they came roaring back and they have dominated the Federal political scene for over seven years. The same thing has to happen in the Conservative Party. The old establishment is ideologically bankrupt, without any principles or a unifying ethos. It may stumble into power at some point in the future but if it does it will be like the conservative governments of Ontario and Alberta, so ideological that they would probably not survive another election. For the long-term success of the conservative movement in this country that movement needs to be taken back from the ideologues. Reasonable conservatives, and there are many out there, need to reassert themselves into Canadian politics. 

The best way to do that is for the CPC to be humiliated in the next election. It needs to be reduced to less than 100 seats, although less than 75 seats would be ideal. Such a humiliation would destroy the current Conservative establishment and provide an opportunity for reasonable conservatives to reassert themselves. There is no guarantee that they would be successful but I can tell you now that reasonable conservatives will never again come out on top as long as the current Conservative establishment holds sway.

Something similar has to happen to the NDP. Their current leadership is useless. It is interesting that the path that took them to being the Official Opposition began when they were reduced to non-party status in 1993. It took hard work and dedication by the NDP to rebuild itself and its brand to the point where they displaced the Liberals as the Opposition. It was quite an achievement but they have lost their way since then and again, I believe, only something really dramatic will motivate them to alter their current useless path. If the NDP were reduced to 10-15 seats it would probably be good for them in the medium to long term.

The Bloc and the PPC can just go away. They serve no useful purpose.

Of course, none of this is going to happen. All of the parties will stumble along on their current paths for the foreseeable future and we can only pray that our government will continue to have the internal discipline to remain honest and competent without an effective opposition.