Everybody Needs to Take a Breath

I am seeing alot of hyperbole and hyperventilating from people about these occupations across the country. Some of the claims by their opponents are almost as out there as the "demands" of the occupiers.

First of all Canadian democracy is in no danger. If our democracy was so fragile that a few hundred yahoos could bring it down then it had serious problems before that. That is not the case. Our democracy is very resilient so we can stop worrying about it.

Second, the weakness of the "truckers" and their cause is obvious if you just take a step back. What started out as an occupation of downtown Ottawa has escalated into blockades of several border crossings with the US and word tonight is the beginning of blocking access to the Ottawa airport. Why are they escalating it? Those who agree with them say it is an indication of their increasing strength when in actual fact it is an indication of their weakness. If they were strong and if they really believe they are winning they would not feel the need to escalate. The fact they do speaks volumes.

Third, these occupations are kicking the living shit out of the CPC and Conservative provincial governments. As well, the reactions of these Parties are showing how much trouble each of them are in electorally. Take Ontario. Doug Ford must be getting an earful from his business buddies for not cracking down on the blockade of the Windsor bridge. The amount of business that is being lost by his business buddies is adding up quickly, yet he has not done anything to bring it to a close. The reason why is to do so would probably piss off much of this base and if he is so damned frightened of losing his base, five months out from an election, then his internal polling is telling him that the June election is probably a tossup or worse.

Then there is Alberta. The public polls for Jason Kenney have been gruesome since the Pandemic started and the fact he gave into the occupiers' demands probably means that the public polls are on to something. It will be interesting to see if the occupiers in Alberta will go home. If the do not then he will look even weaker than before and probably finish his chances of being reelected.

It should be noted that both the Ontario and Alberta Conservatives are first term majority governments. Both should be shoe-ins for winning a second mandate, with reduced majorities, but majorities nonetheless. They are showing many signs that they do not believe that will happen the next time they need to face the voters.

Then there is the CPC. Many of the front bench Conservatives came out in support of the occupation and now they have either gone quiet and in the case of their new interim leader she has actually begun to make some statements calling for the blockades to end. Three days ago, during the emergency debate in The House, she gave all but a full throated support to them only to make must less unequivocal statements today. Again, the increasing unpopularity of the blockades is probably being reflected in their internal polling.

The only actor in all of this that does not seem ruffled is the Federal Government. Indeed, the PM gave one of the best speeches of his career during the emergency debate a couple of days ago and he has been given the opportunity to repeat and reinforce the key points of that speech when questioned about the "disloyalty" of those two Quebec MPs. Their outbursts were probably not planned but I believe both went the PM beforehand to let him know they would speak out and the PM and his team had responses at the ready.

As these blockades drag on a critical mass of Canadians will finally decide that something needs to be done to end them, including the use of force. If the police would have used force on day three then the "truckers" would have gained some sympathy and they would have been able to present themselves as martyrs. When they are finally removed in the next week or so they cannot expect any goodwill at all from Canadians.

Also, as these occupations, particularly of the Parliamentary Precinct continue, the Conservatives and the NDP will not be able to resist the government calling a public inquiry into this whole situation. The government will be able to make it a very broad one including having Conservative Members of Parliament having to testify under oath about their involvement in the occupations. Such an inquiry could produce some rather large political bombs before ending with a very interesting report just in time for the next election in about a year.