The most reasonable Opposition leader in the upcoming Parliament is an avowed separatist who would very much love to break up the country. The other two federalist opposition parties on the other hand are being silly, on the part of the NDP, and acting more like the Bloc Quebecois of old in the case of the Conservatives. I guess that would qualify the current political scene as wacky.
Of course the two federalists parties are doing this because they have very serious problems that they are trying to distract people from examining too closely.
In the case of the NDP, they have been reduced to the fourth party in Parliament and they are desperate to appear relevant. So Mr. Singh talks big, like the mouse that roared. There are two possibilities for why Mr. Singh is appearing so belligerent.
One reason put forward by many is he is inexperienced and a lousy tone deaf politician who does not realize just how irrelevant he is.
The second possibility is Mr. Singh notices the parallels between the NDP election platform and the Liberal election platform. So he will make all sorts of noise about voting against the Throne Speech now so that when the Throne Speech contains alot of promises similar to the ones pushed by the NDP he can "grudgingly" vote for it and claim that it was his tough stance that "forced" the Liberals to make those promises. It really is one of the oldest tricks in the book in minority government situations. Of course, it would be BS but our media would not point that out and the NDP would seem relevant for a short time. Unfortunately, it would only work once and only on a aspirational document like a Throne Speech. Once it came down to the nitty-gritty details, following the passing of the Throne Speech, recklessly taking a tough stance would risk an election that the NDP certainly does not want.
So which is it? Is Mr. Singh a fool or is he pursuing a canny strategy to give the perception that the NDP "wins" an early victory in the new Parliament? We will know in a few weeks.
Mr. Scheer knows that his leadership is on the line and you can already see the outlines of a strategy for him to hang onto it. He is going to join the Premiers of Saskberta in their bitching about what a raw deal they are getting from Canada so that he can sew up the votes of Conservatives in those provinces. He will also continue to cultivate the social conservatives in Central Canada to push him over the 50% he will need in April. And that will be a victory for him in his mind. If he wins 50% +1 he will call it a victory and stay on as leader, even though such a result would indicate a deeply divided Conservative Party.
Such a strategy has a good shot of succeeding because there is no obvious successor to him besides Mr. Mackay.
Mr. Kenney is the premier of a province where Conservative governments have been rogering ordinary Albertans for more than 50 years and where those same ordinary Albertans always say "Thank you sir, can I have some more?" Mr. Kenney has the power to exercise his ideological Conservative instincts with virtual impunity for the next four to eight years and I find it very unlikely that he will give that up for a less than 50/50 chance to become PM of a government that would have to be much less Conservative because of the nature of running a country as culturally and geographically diverse as Canada. He would have to water down his Conservatism as PM where he can keep it in its pure form as Premier of Alberta. As well, his statements and actions against Eastern Canada is making him more unelectable by the week in Eastern Canada. If he keeps this up for the next six months, his chances of becoming the PM would likely be much reduced even if he were to win the Conservative Party leadership.
Mr. Ford is the Premier of Canada's biggest and richest province. If he were to run as leader of the Federal Conservative Party he would have to give that up. Running Ontario is too big of a job to be done part-time, even for just a few months. Again I cannot see him doing that for a less than 50/50 chance of being PM. He is becoming increasingly toxic in Ontario which is exactly the province where the Conservatives have to make a breakthrough in order to win an election. Like Mr. Kenney, he has a good thing going in Ontario and he is the favourate to win the next election in Ontario. His government will lose seats for certain but probably not enough to remove him from government.
In the case of both of these men it may be a case of a "bird in hand being worth more than two in the bush."
So that leaves who? Mr. Mackay, Ms. Mulroney, Mr. Chong?
If Mr. Scheer is removed and one of them wins the outrage in Western Canada towards the Conservative Party would be quite the sight to see. That might make the nascent Wexit Party a force in the next election. The irony of the Conservative Party of Canada being kneecapped by a new "Reform" Party would be funny. The irony of Mr. Mackay being shafted by another "Reform" Party again would be delicious.
Then again, if Mr. Scheer's strategy succeeds it will only be after Canadians have watched him play head cheer leader to the Kenney and Moe show, for six months, which will reduce the Conservatives chances of making the needed breakthrough in Ontario and points East during the next election. So, he might hang onto to the leadership but at the price of severely damaging the electoral chances of the Conservative during the next election.
Personally I believe he will hang onto his job for one big reason. Mr. Harper takes politics personally. He was greatly disappointed in losing to a Trudeau in 2015. The apparent front-runner for the CPC if Mr. Scheer is removed is Mr. Mackay, Mr. Harper's main rival for the leadership of the Conservative Party when it was formed. I would hazard a guess that Mr. Harper still believes the Conservative Party is his party, as it has been since its inception 15 years ago. His fingerprints were all over the Conservative Party platform during the last election and I believe he would not be pleased to see Mr. Mackay take over "his" party. The reason would largely be personal but as well, unlike Mr. Scheer, Mr. Mackay cannot be trusted to maintain the purity of the Harper brand of Conservatism. He might just change it so that it will no longer be the Harper Party. So, it would not surprise me that behind the scenes Harper operatives are working to assist Mr. Scheer in his goal of maintaining the party leadership.
Minority government always lead to wackiness in Canadian politics as the various parties try to adjust to the new reality. So far the two federalist opposition parties are the ones showing the most strain in making that adjustment while the governing Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois seem to be taking it in stride. That could change in the coming months, which can happen in a minority government, so the next few months will be interesting to watch.
