Sunday, April 03, 2011

Politicians do not call elections unless they think they can win

An obvious statement I know but one that needs to made because of all of the BS we saw leading up to this election.


Many in the chattering classes were on Mr. Ignatieff because of his desire to have an election.  They pointed to the public polls and stating he had no chance so why force one now?


The obvious answer is he believes he can win and he is proving that by his performance this past week.  He knows that the Conservatives are vulnerable in a number of fronts and that their expressed desire to not have an election was genuine.  In politics it is generally a good idea to force your opponent to do something they do not want to do.


As the last week has demonstrated all of the reports in the media on how Mr. Harper wanted this election and how he maneuvered the opposition into bringing him down to force one was unadulterated bunk.  Mr. Harper is not performing like someone who wanted to be campaigning.  Quite the opposite is true.  Many have noted that he does not seem to be campaigning to win.  That is not true, of course he is campaigning to win.  The problem is he did not want this election and he was not ready for it.

Of course, these men did not come to their decisions at random, they did seek out data and one source of that data in internal polling.  Political parties poll to assist in their decision making and as a result they ask many questions the media do not think of or just refuse to ask.  The "desire for change" question happens to be one that we used to see all of the time but has now disappeared from the media polls.

Armed with this data, the knowledge of the progress of their election planning processes and some political instinct the two party leaders determined whether they could win an election.  Mr. Ignatieff believed he could and Mr. Harper could very well believe the same thing.  We saw the result in Week one.

Are they correct in their beliefs.  That question will be answered on May 2.

6 Comments:

Blogger Scott said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

April 03, 2011 12:37 PM  
Blogger ridenrain said...

They have to go now because the expiery date on the coalition is later this year.

April 03, 2011 12:54 PM  
Blogger Northern PoV said...

I agree that Iggy is doing well. There is hope.
(But, if you want to get depressed read Andrew Steele in the Globe. )

I think the cons wanted this election but Harper is in poor mental and physical shape and has taken Iggy for granted.

I don't think Iggy saw an opportunity; rather he saw that if Harper stayed in power - and used endless tax dollars to manipulate things for another 12 months - a slim chance would become no chance.

April 03, 2011 12:59 PM  
Blogger Northern PoV said...

btw,
Please check out
http://catch22campaign.ca/

It is a voter based initiative to stop Harper.

April 03, 2011 1:01 PM  
Blogger Aaron said...

Unless someone has a crystal ball, the decision will be made on election day. As for the polls I wouldn't expect them to move until at least after the leaders debate

April 03, 2011 3:50 PM  
Blogger Omar said...

GLOBE EDITORIAL, April 4/11:

The Liberal platform is prudent and pragmatic

A step towards endorsement? Surely it can't be all about who they think is going to win?

April 05, 2011 1:56 PM  

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