The Big Blue Machine, ooooooooh scary

Judging by the reaction from the Liberal blogsphere today regarding the proposal to cut off all public funds to political parties you would think that Mr. Harper has declared martial law or something else equally heinous. We are hearing accusations of threats to democracy and labels like Vlad Harper being thrown around.

What silliness.

MONEY DOES NOT WIN ELECTIONS.

If you do not believe me just ask Mr. Turner, Ms. Campbell, Mr. Eves, Mr. Martin and Mr. Peterson. They all lost despite heading big, rich and slick political organizations while facing poorer and less organized opponents. For that matter you can ask Mr. Harper since he had the most money and the best organization in the last election and it only bought him an extra 20 seats and a second minority government.

What Liberals are forgetting are the voters. They will eventually grow tired of the current government regardless of how much money they have or how organized they are.

Indeed, that could already be happening. Mr. Harper is not very well liked by Canadians to begin with and he will be fighting his fourth election during the next go round. Not even Jean Chretien risked a fourth election. He will be leading a party that is not well trusted and that has very thin talent. And he will be leading this government during what is shaping up to be a recession that is at least worse than the one in the mid-80s (which helped lead to John Turner's loss) and perhaps as bad or worse than the recession of the early 90s (which helped lead to the demise of the Federal PC Party and directly destroyed the Rae government in Ontario).

So what should the Liberals do about the proposal to cut off public funding for political parties?

Well in the immortal words of James Carvell: "IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID"

The Liberals should ignore the proposal and they should be facilitating voter fatigue towards the Conservatives by focusing on

• the fact the Conservatives have brought the country's finances into deficit BEFORE implementing a stimulus package. Yes, yes I know the economic update states we will have a slim surplus this year but this is Jim Flaherty. He cannot be trusted on this issue.
• the fact the Conservatives are sitting on their hands with regard to providing Canadians with assistance during this economic downturn. Not that a stimulus package will do anything to prevent a recession or end one and any benefits it might have, if any, will be fleeting. However, this is politics, not reality, so the Liberals should be hammering the Conservatives on this.
• hammering the government every time there is a bit a bad economic news, no matter how minor. Yes, yes, some would say that the Liberals are trying to take advantage of the bad economic times for political advantage. To which I say, well duh! And your point is what exactly?
• demanding what the Conservatives intend to do about the economy. Demanding answers and a plan. Accusing the Conservatives of hiding things from Canadians when they refuse to provide that plan.
• demanding what the Conservatives are going to do to keep any deficit at least manageable. Demanding what the Conservatives plan to cut and accusing the Conservatives of hiding things from Canadians when they refuse to answer.
• improving their fundraising. It has been a problem for awhile and now they have an added incentive to make it better. Indeed, they say that necessity is the mother of invention so I would say they now have a great need. So invent!!!

I am certain that Stephen Harper would like nothing better than the spectacle of the Liberals and the other opposition parties bleating about losing government funding during an economic downturn. It would serve nicely to change the channel from the above and give him the ability to claim the high road.

The Liberals should not vote to bring down this government and they should not seriously suggest they want to lead a coalition government. Not with that coalition in this economic climate. Force Stephen Harper to wear this recession and to come up with ways to help Canadians through it. I can tell you that helping Canadians in tough economic times in not in his DNA. He would very much prefer to let this shake itself out with the minimum of input from his government. That lack of conviction will lead to him doing things that are not helpful, maybe even harmful, and wind up having his government painted as being incompetent during an economic crisis. (The kiss of death for any government, even ones with lots of money). In fact, we are already seeing this approach.

When this economic update comes up for debate the Liberals should propose some amendments. I have noticed alot a good ideas but I would reject any thought of trying to keep any public funds going to the parties, even if it were being phased out over time. I really like the idea of an amendment to bring the spending limit down. That would really put the Conservatives into a bit of a bind. To risk bringing down their own government over an issue like that would not be a good idea.

When it comes to any confidence votes regarding this update the Liberals should make certain that 15 of their members have urgent business elsewhere. That will allow them to vote against the measure without bringing down the government. That includes any amendments that they propose. That is the silver lining of the Conservatives being only a dozen seats short of a majority. The goal of the Liberals in the short term should be to keep the Conservatives on the hook for the economy. Allow them to stew in the cauldron for awhile and allow the full weight of their economic incompetence to set in with Canadians.

Of course many in the Liberal blogsphere will howl with outrage at that suggestion bringing up the past Liberal practice of abstaining during the last session of Parliament. To which I say the political dynamic has changed. To claim that the Liberal abstentions had anything but a minimal impact on the last election is dubious to say the least but such a claim in the current economic climate is nonsensical. Very few Canadians pay close attention to the minute workings of the parties in the House of Commons when the economy is booming they will pay even less during a recession.

The Liberals need to keep their eyes firmly on the big picture. They cannot allow themselves to be distracted by the Conservatives. Even this early the Conservatives are demonstrating that they care more about symbolic gestures and lofty rhetoric. This will only work for so long and then they will have to actually make real decisions and take real actions, all of which will piss off a great many voters, regardless of what they are.

So Mr. Obama won, what now?

I find that I am unable to get really excited about the victory of President-Elect Obama last night. On an intellectual level I can appreciate the historic nature of his victory. He is after all the first African-American to ever be elected president of the United States. On an emotional level, nothing.

Part of that is because I really do not care about the skin colour of anybody. As far as I am concerned it is no more or less important than their hair colour. For me, what is important is the person not their appearance.

Another part of that is because I have serious reservations about Mr. Obama. It should be noted that I had more serious reservations about Mr. McCain so I am satisfied with the results of last night's election, but I cannot say I am ecstatic.

I have reservations because people have put Mr. Obama on a pedestal and have almost elevated him to godhood. Look at the response of folks on TV and even most of Liblogs today and you see a pattern of belief that Mr. Obama is going to transform the United States and its government. Talk about unreasonable expectations. Any first year political science student can tell you that government institutions and their bureaucracies can outlast any politician regardless of their personal popularity and drive for change. The byzantine nature of the US Federal government virtually guarantees that Mr. Obama will be unable to substantially change the US government so in turn he will be unable to substantially change US society. I wonder how people are going to react when that reality finally sinks in? In all likelyhood it will not be positive and many will blame President Obama for that failure.

Added to this is the fact that Mr. Obama has inherited a country and an economy that has been profoundly broken by George Bush and his gang. It took the Bush Administration 8 years to make this happen. It is the height of wishful thinking and arrogance to believe that Mr. Obama will be able to fix that damage in less time. We all know it takes longer to build something than to tear it down.

Finally, Ms. Clinton and Mr. McCain both claimed that Mr. Obama lacked the experience to be president. Although they made these statements for partisan reasons they were not totally wrong. If you look at Mr. Obama's experience both in and out of government it is not much better than George W. Bush's when he won the White House the first time. For me it is still an open question as to whether Mr. Obama can grow into the job while getting started on solving the many issues that need to be solved and meeting all of those astronomical expectations people have for him. I hope he can but I do have doubts.

From the Canadian government point of view it was funny to see all of those government cabinet ministers falling over themselves today trying to snuggle up to the new President-Elect.

They probably know that their job just became a little more difficult. For one thing Mr. Obama's style and message are ananthema to that of the current Canadian government. Unfortunately for Mr. Harper and his government both are widely popular in Canada and the government cannot be liking the idea of Canadian comparing and contrasting the Harper government and the Obama administration. Mr. Obama will probably come down to earth eventually but probably not before Mr. Harper has to face the electorate once again. He really should have won that majority. Oh well, sucks to be him.

As well, no one should believe for a second that Mr. Obama or at least some of his advisors have forgotten about the blantant interference of the Harper government in the Democratic primaries last year. That interference almost derailed Mr. Obama's race for the White House before it really got started. That could very well manifest itself in Mr. Obama avoiding Canada for awhile and if that does happen I wonder how long it will be before someone reminds Canadians of Naftagate as a possible reason for that situation.

Then again, it could be interesting to see who President Obama appoints as ambassador to Canada. Mr. Bush had no problem appointing men who had no problem meddling in Canadian politics. The Bush representatives were largely ignored because they were, well, Bush appointments. Considering the high regard Mr. Obama is held in Canada any statements or actions of his representatives would probably be better received even if they are meddlesome.

The election of Barack Obama as President of the United States is a truly historic occasion. However, it is still an open question as to whether he will be a successful president or a dud. As well, his election could have a profound impact on the Canadian political scene, particularly if Mr. Obama or one of his advisors decide to let our current government know that they did not appreciate their actions a few months ago.

Dion and the Pope

Stephane Dion is invited to meet with the Pope while he is vacationing in Venice .

The Canadian MSM watches the semi-private audience.

The Pope asks Dion to join him on a Gondola ride through the canals of Venice .They're admiring the sights and agreeing on moral issues when, all of a sudden, the Pope's hat (zucchetto) blows off his head and out into the water.

The gondolier starts to reach for the Pontiff's cap with his pole, but this move threatens to overturn the floating craft.

Dion waves the tour guide off, saying, 'Wait, wait. I'll take care of this. Don't worry.'

He steps off the gondola onto the surface of the water and walks out to the Pope's hat, bends over and picks it up. He walks back across the water to the gondola and steps aboard.

He hands the hat to the Pope amid stunned silence.

The next morning the headline on, CTV News , CBC News, The Globe and Mail, Global News, and the National Post is:

Dion Can't Swim !

Conservatives, stupidly arrogant or arrogantly stupid?

When I read this last night I had a chuckle followed by a moment where by stomach sank.

The ignorance of the sentiments expressed in this story was breathtaking.

The Conservatives should not be worried about a deficit and trying to place the blame for that deficit on the Opposition. The situation they find themselves in is much more serious for them and for the country.

The world in entering the first real global recession since the late 1980s. All of the developed world is being hammered by the continuing fallout of the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the United States. This is resulting in most of the emerging economic powers suffering retreats in their economic output as their markets dry up. China is projected to have growth slow by more than 3 percentage points. Brazil and Mexico had to recently spend billions of their foreign currency reserves to prop up their currencies.

All of the developed world economies are moving as if emersed in slowly hardening concrete as a result of the credit crunch. The bailouts we have seen in the past month have only prevented a total collapse of the world credit market. They have not resolved the problem. That is going to take time. The Japanese went through this beginning in the mid-90s and it took them nearly a decade to recover.

Here in Canada, Central Canada has been in a recession for about a year but the Canadian economy has been buoyed by the energy and commodity industries. Now that is beginning to change. Oil and gas prices have tanked and the floor has not been reached on them yet. The same can be said of the commodity industries with the result of a sharp decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar. Normally, this would be good news for Central Canada except for the fact that the credit crunch prevents them making the investments they need to take advantage of that situation. And to make things worse the falling dollar will cause an increase in inflation restricting the room to maneuver for the Bank of Canada.

So, Canada is heading towards a recession of at least the proportions of the early 1990s and maybe even of the proportion of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

That is why I had a chuckle at that story. Deficits are the least of the problems the Conservatives will be facing. Recessions like those of the 70s through the early 90s take on a life of their own and they are government killers. Bob Rae, George Bush senior, John Major, and Jimmy Clark can all attest to that. During those kinds of recessions the vicious cycle develops where consumer confidence goes so low that they stop spending, which causes the recession to deepen, which causes consumer confidence to fall even further, leading to less spending and so on. This situation also leads to anger and angst and the desire of governments to do something, anything, to bring the country out of this spiral.

Of course, there is very little governments can do but that argument never works when this cycle takes hold. As well, the situation leads to alot less tolerance of the partisan antics we have been seeing the last few years. When things are good citizens ignore the government. When they are bad they look to government for solutions and they do not tolerate games.

As well, when times are bad voters in this country become more left-leaning, which should have an interesting effect on the political dynamics in this country, both at a macro and micro level.

The reason why my stomach sank is the sentiments expressed in that story indicate that the Conservatives still do not realize the gravity of the situation. I believed Mr. Harper's sanguine reaction to the economic crash last month was just him playing politics. However, that story last night seems to indicate that the Conservatives still have not fully grasped what is heading our way.

That is bad news for Canadians.

The Conservatives and Canadians find themselves in the unhappy situation of heading towards a recession that could rival some of the worst recessions of the last quarter of the last century.

For the Conservatives that means they could find themselves in a no-win situation, where they are constantly trying to put out the giant economic forest fire with a garden hose, where their
political agenda is totally hijacked by the economic fire and where Canadians angry at their lack of results in turning the economy around leads them to desert the Conservatives in droves at the ballot box.

For Canadians, we could be heading towards another recession where unemployment increases to double digits again, and where whole swaths of our society are decimated by a long and deep recession and its aftermath.

Sometimes, I do not know whether I should laugh or cry.

I am done with the Liberal Party of Canada

I always thought Liberals were different. I always thought they were smart enough to avoid falling into the same trap the political right did after the virtual destruction of the Progressive Conservative Party in 1993. I always thought they were smart enough not to need to go through that kind of experience to renew itself and make itself stronger.

I was wrong.

It is now obvious that the Liberal Party of Canada is going to have to spend some time in the political wilderness in order to shed itself of the egotistical, power hungry dickheads and selfish yahoos that are always attracted to a political party that spends a long time in power. You see, once many of these folks realize that they will not even get close to the levers of power for a very long time they abandon the party, leaving the ones that truely care about the country and the Party behind to actually build something.

The resignation of Mr. Dion has just made all of that a virtual certainty. There is no way any new leader is going to be able to win an election in 12-18 months. He and the Party will lack the money, organization, policies and personal appeal amongst Canadians to win the next election. As well, although the next leader will probably pick up a few extra seats, which will be spun as a victory of sorts, Mr. Harper will pick up more and achieve his majority government. A third times the charm situation.

I want no part of that for the simple reason that it could be avoided. I will let you read my previous posts to see why I believe that.

Many have stated that Mr. Dion was at the helm for a very bad defeat for the Liberals. I am certain that more than a few former Progressive Conservatives are wondering what the hell they are talking about. As well, what the Liberals lack in quantity they more than make up for in quality. Imagine if all of that talent could be harnessed to launch an all out, coordinated attack on the one-man government of the Conservatives during what is looking more and more like one of the worst economic slowdowns in a century. Eventually, they would reduce Mr. Harper to a quivering oil spot on the floor of the House of Commons. Instead, much of that talent is going to be distracted from Mr. Harper and trying to win the leadership of the Liberal Party letting Mr. Harper off the hook.

I can now see the scenario where the Conservatives will be in power for a very long time. They are going to win the next election and they have a very good chance of winning a majority. By the time that term is up the worst of the recession will be over and it is conceivable that grateful Canadians will give them another majority for bringing them through that recession. The end result is it is conceivable that the Conservative term in office could eclipse the last Liberal term in office.

And for those who thing I may be overstating it I would suggest that the folks on the right probably did not expect the Liberals to remain in power for nine more very long years after the 1997 election. After all, the Liberals had their 20 seat majority reduced to a 5 seat majority and the political right seemed to be on the ascendency. They were really shocked in 2000 when Jean Chretien increased his majority by 12 seats.

I am still a liberal but I want no part of a Liberal Party that is under the thumb of folks who care more about their own ambitions than the country. I may return to helping the Liberal Party after the Party finally sheds these bozos but then again by then Stephen Harper will be tearing down what Liberals spent more than a century building and it will be the Liberal Party that will let them do it because they could not get their shit together. It is a toss-up as to whether I will be able to forgive the Liberals for letting that happen.

Dion's leadership has been endorsed.

If there is anything that should give some Liberals pause in their hurrying Mr. Dion out the door it is this.

Sorry folks but this guys word carries only slightly more weight with me than that of Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton.

I am certain that a great many grassroots Liberals would agree with me.

Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier will be back

I am going to take my own advice and focus on the Conservatives for a moment.

I found it very strange that one of the first things Mr. Harper talked about in his post election new conference was Senate reform. He went so far as to threaten to stack the Senate to facilitate said reform.

My question was why would he begin his second term talking about an issue that is a non-starter east of the Ontario/Manitoba border?

Then I remembered Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier. Mr. Harper wants them back. Mr. Fortier could not get into the House the usual way and Mr. Emmerson does not like the hurly-burly of the House. Using Senate reform as political cover to bring them back is something Mr. Harper would not hesitate in doing. As well, making them part of a larger group serves to provide more political cover. Such a strategy is cynical as hell but that is pretty much the short definition of Mr. Harper's approach to politics.

Do not be surprised if Mr. Harper announces a bunch of Senate appointments just before he announces his cabinet and do not be surprised if a couple of them are announced as being members of both institutions.

There is no Liberal saviour

I have noticed today, as leadership speculation runs rampant, that all sorts of names are being put forward as possible replacements for Mr. Dion if he decides to leave or if he is pushed.

Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley, Ms. Arbour, Santa Claus, just to name a few.

Of course, many are hoping that any one of these folks will be able to turn around Liberal fortunes. Indeed, some are actually saying that they will.

To demonstrate the fallacy in that I asked my wife if she knew any of the names being bandied about. Unlike me she has no interest in politics. She did not become engaged in the last election until the debates, when she watched about 30 minutes of them. Then on election day, she peppered me with a bunch of questions about all of the parties just before we went to the voting station. In short I would say she is a reasonably typical voter.

So, when I asked her about Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley and Ms. Arbour she had no idea who I was talking about. She did not even know the names and she would not be able to pick their faces out of a line-up.

When I mentioned Mr. Rae she said: "Ohh, Rae days."

Not exactly what Liberals would hope for from an "ordinary voter". The simple fact folks is none of the names being bandied about are well known to Canadians, except for Mr. Rae and that might be a mixed blessing. Another simple fact is Canadians will not vote for someone they do not know. This last election proved that. Canadians decided to give Mr. Harper another mandate despite the fact that Canadians do not really like him. They might not like him but they do know him. Mr. Dion was not well known except for the caricature built by the Conservatives and a complicit media and the results speak for themselves.

Stephane Dion is now known to Canadians. Their opinion of him is probably not the best but opinions change over time. Dalton McGuinty was written off after being crushed by Mike Harris. Stephen Harper was written off after losing the 2004 election.

Stephane Dion has the qualities to be a good PM and the election campaign demonstrated that he was growing into the job. Forcing him out will solve nothing. Of course, if he decides to leave then the Liberals will have to respect his wishes, but if he decides to stay then Liberals should accept that and prepare for the next election.

I know many disagree with that assessment. I have no problem with that. If you believe Mr. Dion is not the right man for the job then I respect that. If you want to replace him because you believe another person will be the "saviour" of the Liberal Party then I hope that you are willing to share whatever up you are smoking.

Make no mistake, if the Liberals replace their leader they will go into the next election with a little known leader, who will be leading a party that is broke and woefully unprepared to fight an election. So, I hope all of those who want to replace Mr. Dion are prepared for another election loss in a few months and a possible four years in the political wilderness as Canadians may just decide to give Mr. Harper his majority next time.

With Mr. Dion at the helm the Liberals will be lead by someone who is known and they should have the financial resources to fight a decent campaign. As well, the May policy convention would actually perform its function providing the Liberals with grassroot inspired policies that might motivate Liberals to come out and vote next time.

I have no idea how Mr. Dion would do a second time around. However, I do know that having a known leader, some policies developed by the grassroots and adequate financial resources is better than the opposite when going into an election.

I hope Mr. Dion is thinking with a clear head when he is considering his future but I also hope Liberals begin thinking with a clear head they are considering his future too.

The Liberals: Focus on the Conservatives

Much has been said about the loss the Liberals suffered last night and many have tried to figure out why.

The primary reason is simple. The Conservatives enjoyed the ballot box bonus that incumbents often enjoy. It happened to the Liberals in both 2004, when they jumped from 33% on the Sunday before E-day to 36% on E-day. It also happened in 2006 when it allowed them to salvage a hundred seats. It should come as no surprise that the Conservatives were the ones to enjoy this incumbent bonus this time. This bonus always happens with the desire for change amongst the electorate is low and by most accounts it was exactly that this time, which those pollsters who actually asked the question putting it at under 50%.

To blame Mr. Dion is downright silly. In retrospect that little surge by the Liberals in the last week had a negative side effect. It actually made Liberals believe they could win or at least keep it close.

That is non-sensical really. With no real strong desire for change it was predictable that the Liberals would lose.

So what now?

As the title says, focus on the Conservatives. They are going to be in tough this time. They are going to have to make some really tough decisions on how to handle the coming economic troubles that will not make anybody happy. As well, there is a very good chance that their nostrums for the economy will come straight from their ideology instead of sound analyses of the various problems, which could make things even worse for them.

The last thing the Liberals need to be doing during that time is choosing a new leader. They should instead spend their time hammering the Conservatives and getting ready for the next election in 12-18 months.

Mr. Dion has improved a great deal since his election to the Liberal leadership. Hell there was a marked improvement just over the 5 weeks of the election campaign. His efforts contributed to stopping Mr. Harper from achieving a majority government. He did this despite having the deck stacked against him. As I have stated before the media in this election went to unprecedented lengths to give the Conservatives a pass while crucifying Mr. Dion. They did not go to those lengths in 2000 with Mr. Day, which is the last time the media essentially destroyed a leader of one of the major political parties.

It is ironic that it is these very same media that is now leading the charge to have Mr. Dion removed. What he did to deserve this from them is beyond me. However, I would think that considering what we saw from the media in the last 5 weeks that Liberals would do the exact opposite of what they suggest. They do not have the best interests of the Liberal Party at heart.

I would also remind Liberals that new leaders of political parties never win elections just months after their election to that post. It is not very hard to see Mr. Harper engineering his defeat just weeks after a new Liberal leader is chosen. I can assure you in that situation Canadians will not elect the Liberals. Canadians will not elect an Opposition Party lead by someone who has barely had enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway. So what do we do then? Do we again turf out the leader and have another leadership race.

A leadership race at this juncture will take away resources that will be needed for an election in 12-18 months and deflect attention from the troubles the Conservatives will probably be dealing with during that period. The time for the internal struggles between the various leadership camps is behind us. Liberals should be looking ahead.

Of course, that is not what is going to happen. Since the departure of Mr. Chretien the Liberal Party has had a serious case of the stupids. My guess is that case will reach terminal levels over the next weeks or months and the Party will let Mr. Harper off the hook and hamstring its chances of winning the next election by having a destructive, time consuming and expensive leadership contest. Since Mr. Harper will be receiving a free ride from the Official Opposition as a result it would not surprise me one bit to see him win the extra 10-15 seats he needs for his majority the next time around.

If the Liberals focus they have a very good shot at winning the next election. If they allow the Party to degenerate into another furball then in all likelyhood the new leader will have four years to get settled into Stornaway as he helplessly watches Stephen Harper dismantle the Canada Liberals spent a century building.

The Conservatives: The Chess Master failed

Make no mistake. The Conservative Party won last night's election in a convincing fashion.

However, they failed in achieving the primary objective of calling this election, which we all know was to win a majority government. For the second time in a row the Conservatives found themselves in the ideal position to sweep the country and they came up short. Certainly they did better than last time but they still came up short.

Now let us remind ourselves as to why they wanted a majority government.

• The economy is going into the crapper and they wanted those four or five years in order to have security during the worst of the coming recession.
• They wanted the novelty of a liberal, black US President, preaching change and liberal values to wear off before they have to face the Canadian electorate again.
• The In-and-Out Scandal has not played itself out completely. It should come to some sort of conclusion within a year. In all likelihood it will not be great news for the Conservatives. Having four of five years with which to recover from any negative impacts of that scandal would have been nice.
• The Mulroney/Schrieber Inquiry will have to go forward. With a majority government the Conservatives could have canceled it and that would have been forgotten by 2012. Now it will be occuring at the same time they will be trying to come to grips with a faltering economy.
• The Cadman Affair could come back to haunt them again.
• The Conservatives could have used a majority to squash all other Parliamentary Committee inquiries into all of the other little ethical lapses that have dogged the Conservatives.

The Conservative's second term in office will be much different than its first. They no longer have a Liberal surplus with which to buy votes and the economy is heading in the wrong direction. If it really heads into the crapper the Conservatives will wear it.

The In-and-Out Scandal has the potential to be very damaging. Perhaps fatal in the short time between now and the next election. The RCMP only executes search warrants if there is sufficient probably cause to believe a crime has been commited. Although nothing has come out yet the potential damage of Canadians seeing the Conservative Party and dozens of Conservative Party members, including sitting MPs and Cabinet Ministers, being criminally charged with violating Canada's election law could be catastrophic to the Conservatives.

Combine that with many of the other scandals that have dogged the Conservatives since last winter coming home to roost, I expect this Parliament to be nasty, brutish and short.

To make Mr. Harper's life just a little more difficult he could have some difficulty keeping his party under the tight control he prefers.

I would have to say that judging by the facial expression and subdued demeanour of Rick Anderson last night on the CBC not all Conservatives are happy with Mr. Harper's failure to win a majority. Mr. Anderson should have been bouncing off the walls since the Conservatives had just won back-to-back elections for the first time in almost two decades. Instead, he was saying that Mr. Harper would have to think upon last night's results.

Mr. Anderson and many other Conservatives know that Canadians will only give you so many kicks at the can before they decide that you are no longer worthy. They know that Canadians will eventually grow tired of Mr. Harper and his ways and they know that he may already be on borrowed time. Many Conservatives may feel the same way I felt after the 2004 election when Paul Martin only won a minority government. Although I was happy that the Liberals won the election I also knew that they would not win the next one.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next 12-18 months.

NDP: They just don't get it.

One of the most amusing events of last night was Mr. Layton's speech.

The NDP had just put itself into to hock up to its eyeballs. For that effort they had gained about a half dozen seats and were still relegated to fourth party status in a Parliament of four parties.

Yet, Jack Layton had this silly shit eating grin on his face.

That grin pretty much sums up the NDP. For them victory is taking just a few more seats. From that they construct this dream that they will go on to become the Official Opposition and then who knows?

I saw the same thing in 1984. That was the last time the NDP reaches such dizzying heights in the seat count and they were entralled with these delusions of grandeur. Of course 1988 brought them down to earth and then they spent most of the '90s fighting to maintain official party status.

One of the things that last night's election proved is that Canadians still believe that there are only two parties that they trust to form a national government. That is the Conservatives and the Liberals. Every few years Canadians become disenchanted with the Liberals and they begin to look for alternatives on the centre left. The NDP usually benefits from that. However, eventually, those same Canadians grow tired of the Conservatives and they go back to the one party that can replace them, the Liberal Party.

Unfortunately for the NDP, that disenchantment with the Liberals can only go so far. Last night has proven that. For the NDP to really step up to the next level they are actually going to have to re-invent their party. They are going to have to take it out of the 1960s and bring it into the 21st Century. The Conservatives and Liberals re-invent themselves all of the time, which is why they are the only two parties that Canadians trust with power. Until the NDP can accomplish the same thing they will always be the junior of junior partners in Parliament.

That grin on Mr. Layton's fact last night would seem to indicate that he will not be the one to lead the NDP reinvention.

Expect the NDP "tide" to begin receding soon, maybe even during the next election.

The Bloc Quebecois: Why do the federalist parties keep giving the Bloc chances at new life?

In 2003 the conventional wisdom was the Bloc Quebecois was on its way to extinction. It had lost its reason for being and it was widely expected that when Paul Martin took over the Liberal Party and called an election that they would be all but wiped out.

Then the sponsorship scandal happened and Quebecers became very pissed off at the Liberals. The Conservative Party was moribund in Quebec in 2004 so all of those pissed off Quebecers turned to the Bloc. They won a huge number of seats in Quebec and like yesterday they denied a sitting government a majority government.

They had been slowly fading since 2004 until this year they were again looking at being overtaken by one of the national parties. And then Stephen Harper insulted artists and suggested throwing 14 year olds in prison and the Bloc was given a new life yet again. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I believe the number of seats they won last night exceeded that which they won in 2004.

Anyway, I guess we can expect them to around for at least another two elections, unless of course either the Liberals or the Conservatives does something to again breath new life into them.

Green Party: Very much pretenders

Last night's election should put any lingering ideas of the Green Party being a mainstream party to bed.

It only captured 6% of the popular vote and it gained no seats. It even lost its incumbent.

I like and respect Ms. May but her party is still considered a fringe, one issue party by most and it is going to remain that way for the forseeable future.

When we have the next election do not expect her to be part of the debates.

Ryan Sparrow Found!!

Since the departure of Mr. Sparrow from the Conservative campaign a month ago (Has it only been four weeks? It seems like four months.) I have to admit some curiosity as to where he ended up.

I received my answer in the mail today. I received the election flyer for the Communist Party of Canada and according to it Ryan Sparrow is running for their party in Hamilton Centre. Apparently, Mr. Sparrow has seen the errors of his ways, deserted the Conservative Party of Canada and decided to run for the Communists.

I wish him luck.

Disclaimer: In this post I have my tongue firmly pressed into my cheek. I realize that the Mr. Sparrow running in Hamilton is not the same Mr. Sparrow that was removed from the Conservative campaign.

I make no claim to this being a particularly funny joke but it is meant in jest since I believed that we could all use a good laugh in this campaign right about now. So, if I managed to cause you to chuckle or at least smile. Your welcome. If not, well, to be honest that is not my problem. I did chuckle when I saw a Ryan Sparrow running for the Communists so I decided to share it with all of you.

I have to disagree with Jason Cherniak

In this post Jason Cherniak argues that if Mr. Harper only wins a minority government on October 14 he will be gone as leader of the Conservative Party. I have to respectfully disagree.

Jason presents a reasonable argument. However, I believe he is missing one key element. The party in power does not have the luxury of voluntarily replacing its leaders when that party only has a minority government. As soon as they do so they make the current leader a lame duck completely unable to govern. That in and of itself would be bad enough for the prospects of the Conservatives winning another election. However, there is also the consideration that the government may fall as a result of a no-confidence motion during the chaos of a leadership selection process. Such a threat would make it even more difficult for the party to govern.

So the only way that the Conservatives get rid of Mr. Harper is if he loses the election and even then he may be able to hang on if the Liberals only win a very slim minority. Otherwise Mr. Harper is staying as leader of the Conservative Party. Either as a hero because he manages to pull out a majority government or because they are stuck with him because they cannot risk trying to replace him in a minority government situation.

Of course, if he only has a minority government then he can expect this time to be very different from the last time.

The media will be less inclined to carry his water. One of the reasons why they have been doing so since 2006 is because the corporate bigwigs that run our media believed what their journalist employees were saying. They believed that the Liberals had no hope of forming the government so they could ignore them without having to worry about their interests being threatened. If Mr. Harper only wins a minority the corporate bosses of our MSM will realize that the Liberals will become a government in waiting and it is not in their best corporate interests to alienate said government in waiting. If Mr. Harper only wins a minority government he can expect his long honeymoon with the MSM to be over.

If Mr. Harper only wins a minority government he can expect a very different Conservative Party. Gone will be the days where he will be able to demand that it is his way or the highway. More and more Conservatives, both internal operatives and members of his caucus will be less inclined to stay quiet on issues they consider to be important. Such a scenario could actually be helpful to the Conservatives as it would allow them to shed some of their "secretive" image. However, the weak bench strength of the Conservative caucus and the Conservatives Party's abundance of raving loons could also create the nightmare of giving the Party the image of just being the Reform/Canadian Alliance resurrection.

Then there is the Liberal Party. It will be a true government-in-waiting. It will receive much more attention and positive coverage. It will be a much stronger opposition because of its experience at it for the last couple of years, because of the increased stature of Mr. Dion and because of its considerable bench strength. Of course, if the Liberal Party reacts badly to another Conservative minority and the knives come out for Mr. Dion they will just be shooting themselves in the foot and negating all of the problems Mr. Harper would be facing.

Mr. Harper has to win a majority government. If he only wins a minority government he will be able to hang on to his position as Party leader but he will wish he was somewhere else. If he actually loses this election he will be gone.

The Conservatives will probably win the election

In the final days of the election there are two important but contrary dynamics at work. The first dynamic is the incumbent advantage where alot of undecided voters decide to stick with the party already in power because they are the party in power and it was expected that they would win this election at the outset. The second dynamic is the strengthening of Liberal support as many progressives decide that they are the only ones that can replace the Conservatives so they switch their vote to them.

Unfortunately, the Conservatives will probably come out on top in this situation.

There are several reasons.

1. They are leading at the moment so they have the advantage of not having to pick-up as much additional support as the Liberals to win the election.
2. The desire for change in this country is not that strong so alot of Canadians will not care if the Conservatives continue to be the party in power.
3. The Liberal surge is 7-10 days too late. Their current position in the polls should have been where they were before the debates. That would have given them a chance to overtake the Conservatives with enough time for the changing media narrative to sink in with Canadians.

So the only question will be what kind of government will be see on October 15?

That depends on how the two competing dynamics play out. The nightmare scenario is the incumbent advantage causes the maximum shift of support for the Conservatives while the progressive vote completely fails to coalesce around the Liberals. In that situation a slim Conservative majority government is possible.

However, I do not believe it is plausible. Unfortunately for the Conservatives the increasing economic crisis will probably hold them back. As well, it is likely that enough of the progressive vote will swing towards the Liberals to deny the Conservatives their much sought after majority.

So, I believe we will be stuck with another Conservative government on October 15. It will probably be another minority government but there is still the possibility that it will be a slim majority government.

Yikes!!

So I arrive at my in-laws yesterday for Rosh Hashanah and my father-in-law drags me down to the family room to see the results of the House vote on the $700 billion bailout package. You see the vote took place as my wife and I drove from Ottawa to Montreal.

What does it all mean? Despite the hemmings and hawings from all of the "experts" that were in fine form after the failed vote it is too early to tell. We have seen these market meltdowns before and they have rarely amounted to much beyond Wall Street and Bay Street.

It is true that this meltdown combined with the credit crunch, resulting in bank failures, are eerily similar to the conditions in 1929. However, those events were helped along by the governments of the big economies of the day when they reacted with protectionism. Fortunately no government is talking about raising trade barriers this time.

All that being said I am very happy that my wife and I are currently debt free.

How will this impact the elections in both Canada and the US?

Well judging from the rhetoric from Republican members of Congress yesterday it would appear they expect to wear this failure. I suspect they may be right. Barring a major error on Senator Obama's part I believe he has the momentum to take him into the White House.

In Canada, the events of yesterday could help the Conservatives. For whatever reason Canadians seem to believe Conservatives are better shepards in bad economic times. It defies reality and history has proven that but that really does not matter. As well, this could be very bad news for the NDP. Canadians firmly believe they cannot be trusted on the economy and the events of yesterday could remind them of that. As well, the Greens could take a hit. In times of economic uncertainty fringe parties like them lose support as voters decide to stick with those with a proven track record to govern. In this country that is the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives. (That was not a mistake).

The remaining days of this campaign could very well come down to a showdown between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

So the Liberals should pound the Conservatives on blowing the surplus and they should use Paul Martin to do it. Get him out there accusing the Conservatives of destroying what he and Canadians spent so many years building. The Liberals have a stellar track record when it comes to the economy and the Liberals should be using the one who created that record to remind Canadians of that fact.

I hate to sound like a broken record but...

There is still a distinct disconnect with what the media is telling us about this election and how the campaigns are fighting it.

In the last three days Mr. Harper has pandered to his base twice, (youth crime announcement and comments about the arts) and he has made statements that folks should not vote for the NDP because they would just wind up electing a Liberal government.

These are not the actions of a man enjoying a massive lead with less than three weeks to go before an election.

As I have stated before Mr. Harper has to expand beyond his base to win his much sought after majority and both the crime announcement and arts comments are extremely counterproductive. Both will not play well in Quebec. Both provide Gilles Duceppe with something to pound the Conservatives with for the remainder of the campaign. The arts in particular is a big issue as Quebecers look at the arts as a way to promote and elaborate the French culture and a political party threatens or is perceived the threaten that at its peril.

As for the NDP statement that was just weird. Someone should inform Mr. Harper that according to the media he has a huge lead and no one is taking the idea of the Liberals winning the election very seriously right now.

As for the Liberals, they are supposed to be history. In fact, Jane Taber wrote today that according to "senior Liberals" the party was now looking just to save what they have and forgetting about winning the election. I guess those "senior Liberals" should have told the campaign that because they have Mr. Dion in Quebec City and Trois Rivière today, rather safe Conservative and Bloc areas respectively. If the Liberals are indeed toast and pretty much a political corpse in Quebec, as the media claims, why are the Liberals not campaigning in their strongholds and trying to shore up their base?

That is what is so weird about this campaign. The "frontrunner" is acting like they are ones in danger of losing the election. It is the Conservatives who are campaigning in safe areas and pandering to their base. With the lead the media says they have Mr. Harper should be going into Liberal strongholds to try to cause some upsets in those ridings. As well, the one perceived to be losing by a big margin is acting like they are leading. Their is no sense of urgency (my pet peeve) let alone panic in their campaign and they are not a party trying to shore up its base, which is what I would expect it to be doing if the polls saying they are around the 25% mark are true.

As I stated before, at the moment, this election seems to be much closer than the media is telling us.

Not that I believe the Liberals are leading. The Liberals are losing this election right now and they are on their way to losing it October 14. The reason is simple. They utterly failed to foresee the toxic media atmosphere for the Liberals and they have completely failed to adapt to it. I have never seen a media atmosphere like this one during any election. Even in 2000 when the media completely dismissed Stockwell Day as suitable material for being PM they did not give Jean Chretien the free ride that Stephen Harper is receiving. It is unprecedented and a sight to behold.

The upcoming debates will not save the Liberals either. I would wager a fair amount of money that the media already has their spin for those nights. Short of Mr. Harper growing horns and a tail they have already decided that he will win the debates. As well, Mr. Dion could speak English as clearly and eloquently as Sir Ian McKellan and they will still have a problem with his English. Most Canadians do not watch the debates (they are a ratings dud) they make judgements based on what the media says about them so the Liberals really are screwed.

This has been the weirdest election that I have ever witnessed. The media is telling us one thing but the actions of the parties are telling another. I have no idea which one to believe.

Ugh, the dog days

Well we have entered that period of the election campaign when not much will happen.

The excitement of the first two weeks is over and the debates are still a week away.

I suspect we will see another set of ads from all parties leading up to the debates and then a blitz afterwards.

As well, it will be after the debates that all of the campaigns will really kick it into high gear and that is also when we will really see how this election is going to finally unfold.

For now though, if you are feeling a little election fatigue, now would be good time to take a break. Not much is going to happen.

Now I am really confused

According to all of the polls except Nanos the Liberals are toast. They are done, history.

Yet today we had

• Mr. Harper pandering to his base with a silly crime and punishment announcement,
• Mr. Rae telling voters that we have to end vote splitting on the left to beat the Conservatives, and
• Mr. Layton stating that he would be willing to form a coalition with the Liberals.

Guys, guys, guys, the Liberals are toast. I know because Mike Duffy says so and he has all sorts of polls to back it up.

So, Mr. Harper, why are you pandering to your base? You apparently have this election in the bag. You should be talking to everybody but your base at this point to push you over the top to a majority.

Mr. Rae, why are you even talking about a Liberal victory at all? Mr. Duffy et al says the Liberals are done so you should not be talking about actually winning this thing. You should instead be plotting strategy for the leadership convention to replace Mr. Dion. C'mon, get with the program!

Mr. Layton, why are you talking about a coalition? According to Peter Donolo and Bruce Anderson you are going to be fighting for second place in this election. You are on the cusp of making the NDP the Official Opposition. Now is not the time to talk coalition. You should be fighting to put yourself over that hump.

At this time in the election campaign there is a massive disconnect with what the media is telling us about it and how the various campaigns are pursuing their respective campaigns. None of them are acting as if the Liberals are way down and possibly facing third party status.

Although things can change in a heartbeat during an election campaign the actions of the various parties seems to indicate that this thing is alot closer than we are being lead to believe.

Where is the panic in the Liberal campaign?

Am I missing something here?

Pretty well every poll except the Nanos one (more on that later) are showing the Liberals in the low to mid-20s, about 15 points behind the Conservatives. It is three weeks before the election, which means if those polls are correct the Liberals lose unless there is a meltdown of biblical proportions in the Conservative campaign. Again, if those polls are correct the only thing the Liberals could hope for is to cut their losses.

So, why is there no sign of panic or even a heightened sense of urgency in the Liberal campaign? Usually, when a campaign is this far down signs begin to show. However, it would seem it is not there. In fact, Mr. Dion is taking the day off today.

Some would say that Mr. Dion "shifting" focus from the Green Shift Plan would be a sign except he has not actually made that shift. That was all made up by the media still trying desparately to maintain the "Dion is a dead duck" narrative.

As well, why are the Conservatives not as relaxed as they should be considering they would appear to have this election in the bag? If the polls are correct they cannot lose and the only thing in question now is whether it is a majority or a minority.

So what's up?

The Nanos poll might give us a clue. One of the reasons why he has become the polling guru is because his client is CPAC, a television station that goes out of its way to be non-partisan and balanced. They do not care about creating a narrative. Instead they care about bringing Canadians information about Canadian politics with much less spin. So, instead of demanding polls to support their narrative they demand polls to give Canadians solid information on how things are going out there. So, Mr. Nanos designs polls to do that. That is why his polls are the most methodologically sound of all of the polls being produced out there right now.

That incidently is exactly what the party pollsters are doing. All three of the main stream parties have their own pollsters doing nightly tracking polls probably using very similar methodologies as Nanos. All three political parties want their polls to give them solid information to help them in their decision making as the campaign goes forward. They do not need or want spin.

So what are those polls saying? Are they saying the Liberals are 15 points back and certain to lose the election or are they saying the Liberals are much closer to the Conservatives?

Who knows for certain except the party insiders running the respective campaigns. However, the apparent lack of panic or even a heightened sense of urgency within the Liberal campaign would suggest that they do not see much of a problem at this juncture in the election campaign. As well, the one poll (Nanos) that is conducted using methodology very similar to the party tracking polls has been saying the Liberals have been within striking distance of the Conservatives since the election campaign started.

Of course those public polls could be correct and the Liberals could just be going quietly into the night but for some reason I doubt that would be the case.

Like I said, am I missing something?

The national media has decided who they want to win this election

And it is not the Liberals.

Wow, stating the obvious am I not?

The media have been doing this for years. The only problem now is they have the 24 hour news channels with which to promulgate their narrative and pollsters who are willing to design their polls on the side of art, with the price of sacrificing the science. That makes them much more effective in influencing the outcome of elections.

As well, the Liberals have not always been the victim of this. The national media skewered Stockwell Day in 2000 and they grabbed hold of every gaffe by Stephen Harper in 2004 preventing him from winning that election. An election he would have won if not for the national media.

So why do they do this?

Well, they have the power to determine what is important and what is not. The media can make up any story it likes by just emphasizing certain events or the statements of certain people. They can deny Canadians access to all sorts of news by just not reporting it. That is an awesome power and we all know power corrupts.

As well, I recall after the 2004 election some media commentators saying that they had been unfair to the Conservatives and Mr. Harper in that election. So, now they are being unfair to the Liberals and Mr. Dion in this one. In their warped little world the national media probably believes that they are being "balanced".

With regard to this election the national media just does not like the Liberals. The reason is they had the temerity to elect Mr. Dion as their leader. Before the Liberal leadership convention the whole of the national media predicted that it would be Mr. Ignatieff or Mr. Rae. Then the Liberals picked Mr. Dion making the national media look foolish. Their treatment of Mr. Dion and the Liberals before and during this election is their revenge for that and it could be the reason why they have meekly taken all of the BS that the Conservatives have thrown at them since their election. First Stephane Dion then Stephen Harper.

So what can the Liberals do to fight this?

Produce more ads like the one on Mr. Ritz. I know that many in the Liberal blogsphere are a little uncomfortable with it because they believe it is negative. To which I say, pointing out the truth is not negative. The Conservatives have made some very questionable decisions and have had some ethical problems since their election. It is fair game for the Liberals to remind Canadians of those, provided they do it in a factual manner.

As well, the Liberals should take a page out of the Conservative playbook from when they were first elected. Cultivate the regional and provincial media. Have high profile candidates blitz that media with interviews and announcements. The Liberals cannot count on the national media to be balanced in this election but I would imagine the regional and provincial media would be more so. They do not have an axe to grind and alot of these news organizations have greater difficulty getting content for their products.

The media will continue to give the Conservatives a free ride. They gave them a free ride after the Ritz fiasco became public so any event that changes that will have to be mind boggling. Like a revelation that Stephen Harper-pays-for-a-weekly-dominatrix-session kind of mind boggling.

All the Liberals can do is grin and bear it, keep plugging away at it and go over the national media's head with advertizing and under their knees by cultivating regional media.

Is this the weekend the Liberals lose the election?

As I stated yesterday the first polls of the election are coming out and their is a beginning of a narrative of the Conservatives having momentum. CTV and the National Post will release polls this weekend and I can guarantee that they will not be kind to the Liberals. By the end of this weekend the narrative that the Conservatives have momentum will be solidified.

It will be in that narrative that the Liberals will probably begin releasing its ads directed at Mr. Harper and the Conservatives but under those conditions that ad campaign will be greeted with claims of Liberal desperation. Such claims are poison to any election campaign.

It was vital for the Liberals to force the media to begin changing what they were saying about them and Mr Harper before this weekend. They have missed that opportunity and that could very well be fatal.

Mr. Dion has run a competent campaign but there has been no sense of urgency. There has been no story arc, it has just been a bunch of seemingly random announcements.

The Conservatives are running a campaign centred on Mr. Harper. That campaign became even more centred on him as a result of the implosion of the Conservative war room. The Liberals should be getting in his face. Right now he is not under any pressure and until he is he can just coast. Paul Martin tried to do that in 2004 but the Conservatives would not let him. They were in his face from the beginning. If it were not for the wheels falling of the Conservative campaign later in that election the Conservatives could have eked out a minority government.

There are four weeks left in the campaign but the Liberals have until about the middle of the coming week to find that sense of urgency and begin to actually fight this election. If they have not done so by Wednesday they will be pretty much finished.

The Liberals have put themselves into a very nasty spot. At the beginning of this campaign they were in the position of being the masters of their own destiny. However, their lack of urgency has let that moment pass and now they have to hope for a meltdown in the broader Conservative campaign if they hope to pull this out.

Mr. Harper is now more vulnerable

The departure of Mr. Sparrow and the apparent unravelling of the Conservative war room will have a negligible effect on the the immediate Conservative campaign. Mr. Sparrow's comments will not cause a huge shift of support away from the Conservatives.

The effects of these events will be felt much later in the campaign.

This situation leaves Mr. Harper as THE Conservative campaign. There appeared to be some strategy behind the War Room where it launched the most outrageous Conservative attacks on the Liberals, going so far as to peddle bald-faced lies, while Mr. Harper could go around looking "Prime Ministerial".

That is no longer the case. Mr. Harper finds himself in the position of having to perform two equally important but largely incompatible functions of this campaign. Appear like a PM and be an attack dog.

Misleading Canadians in the most blatant fashion is part of the Conservative strategy and as long as it was coming from the war room in Ottawa Mr. Harper was insulated from it. Now he has to do it himself and that could put him on the hook personally for any lies he is caught telling. An example of that is his assertion of The Green Shift Plan being a trigger for a recession and being a threat to national unity. The Globe and Mail called him on it today, although in a very gentle fashion. However, if he keeps doing this eventually even this compliant media will have to call him on it much more forcefully just to maintain its what's left of its credibility. If that happens Mr. Harper's credibility is toast and so is the Conservatives re-election chances.

The pressure on Mr. Harper is now much greater than it was at the beginning of the campaign. Now more than ever the Liberals have to find a way to make him mad and they have to be on top of everything he says from this point forward, ready with quick and factual rebuttals of what will likely be more fabrications by Mr. Harper.

This is an opportunity for the Liberals. Mr. Harper is now completely exposed and the Liberals have to find a way to take advantage of that situation.

So far the Liberals are losing

The first five days of the election campaign have been boring, uninspiring and pointless.

The campaign has been dominated by the trivial, from Liberal airplanes, to Pooping Puffins to Lizzie May in the debates. I know it is not a popular view but I am really pissed off that almost two whole days of the campaign were about her and the debates. There are so many other issues that we should be talking about. Issues that effect the lives and livelihood of Canadians but instead of addressing them we have two days Liz May bitching about being left out of the debates dominating the conversation. Who cares? Obviously my priorities for this election are much different from others.

Neither of the two big parties has done anything to grab the attention of Canadians. They have made some announcements that will not penetrate the Canadian consciousness one iota. Both are running low-key campaigns. As well, neither really has a campaign theme. All of these announcements seem to be just random promises.

In such a situation the advantage goes to the incumbent.

Some have commented the media seems to be giving the Conservatives a pass on their gaffe-a-day campaign. They are complaining and wondering why. Considering how the media treated the Liberals during the 2004 and 2006 election and since the last election they should not be surprised. If they were thinking that the media would suddenly become more balanced during the campaign they were dreaming. I thought the media might have grown a pair and pushed back at the Conservatives for the shabby treatment they have received at the hands of that party but such is not the case. Our MSM really is populated by a bunch of wimps.

My biggest fear is the braintrust of the Liberal Party is also expecting fair and balanced reporting by our MSM. If so they are screwed.

Further, the first round of election polls are due to come out this weekend with one due as early as tomorrow. Mark my words, they will not be kind to the Liberals so the media narrative next week will be the Conservatives have the momentum and considering the week the Conservatives have had the media will add the twist that they have the momentum DESPITE a lacklustre first week.

The Liberal Party has to get ahead of this and the only way to do it is to give the media the Shawinigan handshake. They have to force them out of their complacency. They have to force them to rethink their narrative.

To do so they have to have a two pronged attack.

First they have to announce a big policy plank or two that are different but complementary to the Green Shift Plan and they need to announce them in the next day or two. The Plan is old news and it does not grab anybody's attention anymore. A major plank about the economy and a major plank directed at Quebec would do the trick. Beginning to articulate an actual campaign theme would be a good start too.

Second, they need to highlight the brutal record and scandals of the Conservatives with a high impact ad campaign and they need to do that before the weekend. If they do so during the coming media narrative they will be accused of being desperate. They need to do it before that narrative really begins to develop.

Ads about the "In-and-Out Scheme", the Cadman Affair, the Bernier Affair and the Nafta Affair would be a good start. And they need to make a decent ad buy. I have yet to see the Green Shift ad on TV. I have turned off the Stephen Harper sweater vest ads on more occasions than I can count but nada for The Green Shift. There is no use producing ads if you do not bother with an inadequate ad buy. Oh yes, the internet does not cut it. It still only reaches a fraction of what the MSM reaches.

If the Liberals really want to win this thing they have to kick it into another gear and they need to do so now.

Update: A third prong in their attack is they have to start doing things to make Stephen Harper mad. He does not take criticism well so they have to start piling it on. In all cases it has to be issue based and not personal.

The Conservatives announce a $1 Billion subsidy to Big Oil.

The announcement of the cut in excise taxes on diesel and jet fuel will cost the Federal treasury $1 billion dollars.

The actual difference at the pumps for diesel will be 2 cents per litre. So if the price of diesel is $1.20/L then the price will come down to $1.18/L. How long does anybody believe the price would stay at its newly reduced level for long? Big Oil would back-fill that reduction in a heartbeat and take that money for themselves.

The actual difference in price for jet fuel is about the same as diesel. So we could expect Big Oil to do the same. Although, they might decide to give the airlines a break and not raise the price but I would bet large sums of money that those airlines would not pass on any saving, instead using the reduction to shore up their rather messy balance sheets. Of course, I would not expect Big Oil to give anybody a break so they would reap the full benefit as well.

So, there you have it. The average consumer will not save a penny as a result of these tax cuts and Big Oil will reap a $1 Billion dollar windfall.

It is nice that you are looking out for your buddies in the Oil Industry there Mr. Harper.

The Plane! The Plane!

"My guess is they will be on the lookout for any mistake by Mr. Dion or the Liberals so that they can hype it up while they will ignore or at least downplay any errors by Mr. Harper and the Conservatives."

I saw the CTV news tonight and heard Bob Fife do exactly what I stated the media would do a few days ago.

Apparently, the Liberals are finalizing the arrangements for their campaign plane and since they have not done it yet Mr. Fife tells Canadians that this is sign of disarray in the Liberal campaign. Let us leave aside that it does take time to find a suitable aircraft, particularly since it has to carry not only Mr. Dion and his entourage but it also has to carry all of the parasites, er I mean, the national media that will be following Mr. Dion. Let us leave aside that they will have finalized the arrangements by tomorrow. As well, let us not forget that they will not be using the plane until the campaign begins so they did not need to have the final arrangements made until tomorrow. No, Mr. Fife has to hype up this situation.

Oh and to add to it, apparently the airplane the Liberals do not have yet is a 737, which Mr. Fife states is a gas guzzling aircraft. How can a man who is running on the environment use a gas guzzler intones Mr. Fife. Oh the horror, the horror!! To which I ask, if the Liberals do not have an airplane yet how does Mr. Fife know that the Liberals will be using a 737? As well, all large wide bodied jets guzzle jet fuel like crazy but Mr. Fife neglects to tell Canadians that little fact.

Liberals should have no doubts about how the media will view them and present them to Canadians in the next couple of weeks and they should be prepared for it. They will not catch any breaks so they are going to have to manufacture those breaks for themselves.

Why am I surprised?

I have to admit that I am truly surprised by the media's resurrection of the idea of the possibility of the Conservatives winning a majority government. And I am surprised and perturbed that I am surprised about them doing so.

The media talked about the prospect of the Conservative majority for the first year or so of their government but then it stopped because events began to overtake their narrative. The Conservatives began to drift downwards until they were tied with the Liberals and they remained so for the last six to nine months. Indeed, less than ten days ago two very reputable polling firms put the Conservatives slightly behind while another polling firm that usually overstates Conservative support said they were tied and in the low 30 range.

Then the media released some polls this past week that showed the Conservatives spiking into the high 30 range this week. There of course, was no explanation of why this happened or of what circumstances would have brought this about. No analysis, nothing. Instead they just lept to the "Conservative majority" idea again.

And I was surprised. I would have thought they would have taken into account the situation from the last 6 to 9 months and tempered their narrative a bit or at least try to give some explanation of why there was a sudden change. Silly me, I know how the media works so I should not be surprised and I am very disappointed in my own naivté.

Oh well, live and learn.

Now that my cynicism about our MSM has been renewed and reinforced I can say that I do not believe this narrative any more than I believe any other narrative they have peddled over the last 20 years. I have observed way too many elections to believe what the media says at the beginning of them will reflect what the reality will be at the end of them. The narrative could be right but I would wager a fair amount that it will be flat wrong so I will wait until mid October and see what happens.

But I am still quite upset with myself for letting them surprise me.

Welcome to 2004

I am always amazed at how history repeats itself in politics. It must be because no politician has had an original thought on how to win elections since the creation of representative democracy.

In 2004 Paul Martin was riding high in the polls, with personal leadership ratings 25 points higher than Stephen Harper and his party in the low 40% range while the Conservatives were around 15 points back. Every newspaper in the country was stating without reservation that Mr. Martin would weather the sponsorship scandal storm and win a majority government. The main reason of course was those polling numbers and the fact the media firmly believed that Mr. Harper would never be able to beat Mr. Martin and the Big Red Machine.

The Liberals apparently believed this hype themselves because their election strategy for the 2004 campaign was to highlight the superior leadership qualities of Paul Martin compared to Mr. Harper.

The first part of that strategy was to release a series of negative attack ads that were directed straight at Mr. Harper. No talk of policy just an attempt to paint Mr. Harper as a dogmatic, neo-conservative "Alberta Firewall" ideologue who could not be trusted with power. The next part of the strategy was to release a series of positive ads depicting Mr. Martin as the steady hand and friendly everyman. The final part of the strategy was to trash Mr. Harper at every turn during the actual campaign. The Liberal Red Book that year was very thin as the Party did not really develop much of an election platform.

Does all of this sound familier?

We all know what happened next. By the final weekend of the election the Liberals and the Conservatives were statistically tied in the polls with the Liberals having lost almost 10 points of support, with most of that going to the Conservatives and the rest going to the NDP and the Bloc. They made a slight recovery in the final weekend and their net loss was only 7 points with a result being a minority government.

Of course there are differences. Mr. Harper will not have the mother of all political scandals hanging over his head. He will have a few, including one where video of the RCMP raiding Conservative Party Headquarters was taken by Liberal Party cameramen, so we could be seeing that video again in the next few weeks. However, they are small compared to what Mr. Martin had to deal with.

Then again Mr. Martin could boast a multi-billion government surplus and he was running as the government when the Canadian economy was running on all cylinders. As well, he was not saddled with a war in a far off land and a casualty rate that could hit the psychologically important century mark during the course of the election campaign.

As well, Mr. Harper was kind enough to have an election platform as thin as the Liberal platform. There was not much to it. It remains to be seen if the Conservatives will have a comprehensive platform this time around or if they will stick to the "five priorities" strategy that he employed with some success in 2006.

The final big difference is now Mr. Harper is running as the leader of the government. Many pundits have pointed out the fact this will be his third campaign but it will be the first where he will be running as the head honcho. He will no longer have the luxury of running without having a record to defend. He will no longer have the luxury of being able to attack another party without them having plenty of ammunition to fire back. He will be the primary target for all of the other parties this time around and he will be subject to relentless attacks from them. He has never reacted well to criticism so it will be interesting to see how he reacts to almost six weeks of it.

Mr. Martin's decision to make the 2004 election about him and his leadership turned out to be an almost fatal political mistake. It will be interesting to see if Mr. Harper's decision to do the same thing will result in a different outcome.

How will this election play in the media?

That is one of the intangibles in the upcoming election.

The current media narrative is not positive for the Liberals. After months of not mentioning the notion of a Conservative majority government, because the Conservatives were drifting in the other direction, many media pundits have resurrected the idea. Of course it is based on a couple of polls that suddenly show the Conservatives in the high 30 range after they had been sitting in the low 30s for more than six months. The media fails to mention why such a sudden change took place especially since nothing dramatic has happened in the last two weeks. Unless, of course you include more bad economic news in Ontario, an outbreak of a potentially deadly infection borne by tainted meat products, casualties climbing in the war in Afghanistan, Stephen Harper breaking his own fixed-elections law, and almost universal accounts that the Conservatives were about to take a beating in four by-elections. I am certain all of these events explain the sudden rise in Conservative fortunes being touted by the media.

My God, they must think Canadian are idiots.

So what can we expect for the election?

My guess is they will be on the lookout for any mistake by Mr. Dion or the Liberals so that they can hype it up while they will ignore or at least downplay any errors by Mr. Harper and the Conservatives. That mean the Liberals will have a great deal of pressure in them for the first couple of weeks. If they can get through the first couple of weeks relatively unscathed they will be in good shape.

The Liberals will have to hammer Stephen Harper while staying on message with regard to their platform. They will need to be disciplined. That does not mean Stephane Dion will have to muzzle his team. It does, however, mean that the Liberals will need to avoid another "Beer and Popcorn" moment, which was the most hyped moment in the 2006 election. How an off the cuff remark by a party apparatchik can become a three day story just demonstrates how bankrupt is our media. But I digress.

They will also have to realize that the media cares more about strategy than policy. So while they should be releasing their policies as the election goes on they will have to keep a close eye on their overall election strategy and that of the Conservatives.

Media narratives can change on a dime during elections.

• In 1984, the narrative was John Turner would win the election for the Liberals over the inexperienced Brian Mulroney.
• In 1993, the narrative was Kim Campbell would hang on to government over yesterday's man Jean Chretien.
• In 1997, the narrative was Jean Chretien would handily win another majority government.
• In 2000, the narrative was Jean Chretien would be reduced to a minority government.
• In 2004, the narrative was Stephen Harper, a bookish, policy wonk with zero charisma and leaderhship ratings more than 20 points behind Paul Martin would not stand much of a chance and the Liberals would hang on to their majority, just not the sweep that was expected when he became Prime Minister.

In all of these elections the narratives changed in mid-election because events overtook them.

The Liberals are in better shape that the media is letting on. They are well within striking distance of the Conservatives and as I stated in my previous post history has demonstrated that election campaigns are not kind to incumbents. The Liberals have as much chance of winning as the Conservatives and I would even state they have a better chance of winning a majority than the Conservatives. (See my previous post for why)

However, the Liberals have to understand that they will have to be prepared to deal with a hostile to ambivalent media as well as the other political parties.