Saturday, September 06, 2008

Why am I surprised?

I have to admit that I am truly surprised by the media's resurrection of the idea of the possibility of the Conservatives winning a majority government. And I am surprised and perturbed that I am surprised about them doing so.

The media talked about the prospect of the Conservative majority for the first year or so of their government but then it stopped because events began to overtake their narrative. The Conservatives began to drift downwards until they were tied with the Liberals and they remained so for the last six to nine months. Indeed, less than ten days ago two very reputable polling firms put the Conservatives slightly behind while another polling firm that usually overstates Conservative support said they were tied and in the low 30 range.

Then the media released some polls this past week that showed the Conservatives spiking into the high 30 range this week. There of course, was no explanation of why this happened or of what circumstances would have brought this about. No analysis, nothing. Instead they just lept to the "Conservative majority" idea again.

And I was surprised. I would have thought they would have taken into account the situation from the last 6 to 9 months and tempered their narrative a bit or at least try to give some explanation of why there was a sudden change. Silly me, I know how the media works so I should not be surprised and I am very disappointed in my own naivté.

Oh well, live and learn.

Now that my cynicism about our MSM has been renewed and reinforced I can say that I do not believe this narrative any more than I believe any other narrative they have peddled over the last 20 years. I have observed way too many elections to believe what the media says at the beginning of them will reflect what the reality will be at the end of them. The narrative could be right but I would wager a fair amount that it will be flat wrong so I will wait until mid October and see what happens.

But I am still quite upset with myself for letting them surprise me.


Blogger WesternGrit said...

The "Conservative Majority" talk will help us... Canadians WANT a minority - especially voters on the left (NDP). Just a little bit of Conservative majority talk can help us a little. Too much, and it may make voters stay home in a "foregone conclusion" scenario...

I do agree that the media tends to make up stories nowadays - without any real journalism or investigation... It's a sad state when ratings and advertising dollars are more important than research and hard work. It's a shame to the journalistic profession.

September 06, 2008 3:57 PM  

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