Some Observations on Canadian Politics

There has been many things happening in Canadian politics recently but none of them really warrant their own posts so I am just going to put them all in this one.

First, Canada is not in a recession. Yes, we have seen two quarters of negative growth, which economics defines as a recession but I have lived through four of the damned things and this does not feel like them. There is no widespread unemployment. There is no crashing real estate market. Wages are not crashing. There is none of the oppressive fear and malaise that comes with a recession. It is true that the Canadian economy is going through a rough patch and it is entirely possible that the Canadian economy could go into a real recession but the same is true of the global economy. (More on that in another post).

Second, Pierre Poilievre's reaction to the announcement of the two consecutive quarters of negative growth shows just how little political instinct and political acumen he and his team has. They sounded almost gleeful. I cannot say that I blame them. Mark Carney has been unassailable for over a year and if things do not begin to change soon Pierre Poilievre is in real danger of losing his job. However, that does not mean he should be cheering the fact the Canadian economy is going through a rough patch. If we had a media worth anything he would be roundly condemned for doing so. 

Third, the Conservatives have to acknowledge the damage Donald Trump is doing to the Canada/US relationship. I realize the Conservative tend to prefer the greater integration with the US approach to that relationship, which I explained in an earlier post, but they have to begin realizing that such an approach will never be popular with the majority of Canadians as long as Donald Trump remains in office. I also realize that a sizable chunk of the CPC base actually likes Donald Trump but Mr. Poilievre could finesse that if he had any political acumen. For example, instead of gleefully cheering on the "recession" he could have stated that the policies of Donald Trump have created great challenges for the Canadian economy and the policies of the Carney government have been ineffective at addressing them. That approach might have been more impactful. As long as the Conservatives continue to ignore that giant mammoth in the room none of their critiques of the economic policies of the Carney government will be taken seriously.

Fourth, apparently Mark Carney yells at his MPs. Who knew and who cares? Mark Carney and his government have been very busy making decisions and pursuing policies that could use some real critical examination but no one is actually doing it. The Opposition parties are all grandstanding and our media is doing its usual shit of focusing on the trivial. So, just more of the same.

Fifth, the environmentalists are pissed at the Carney government because it has stepped back from some of the Trudeau environmental policies. Steven Guilbeault even resigned his seat. Of course by doing so he effectively eliminated any influence he had with the government. If he believes he will be more effective outside of government he is gravely mistaken. As well, if environmentalists think that deserting the Liberals will advance their cause you have less political acumen than Pierre Poilievre. It is a simple fact that there are only two parties that Canadians trust to govern the country, the Liberals and the Conservatives. So if the Liberals lose the Conservatives will win and environmentalist will have to sit by and helplessly watch them do to Canadian environmental policies what Donald Trump did to US environmental policies. Environmentalism has always been a "nice to have" for ordinary people when things are going well economically. If that is no longer the case then they will choose bread and butter economic issues over the environment every time. That is the case now. If there are any politically savvy environmentalists out there I hope you are encouraging your brothers and sisters to maintain the lines of communications with the Liberal government. They are still the only option for advancing environmental policies of the two real choices for government.

Sixth, Danielle Smith is the same type of federalist as Robert Bourassa used to be. That is, a transactional federalist. Some may recall that Mr. Bourassa, as the Liberal Premier of Quebec, used the threat of separation to force the Mulroney government to sign the Meech Lake Accord and then the Charlottetown Agreement. Of course, that approach came back to bite him on the ass when the failure of those two agreements cost him the government to the Parti Quebecois, lead by Jacques Parizeau, who with Lucien Bouchard came within a hair's breadth of winning the 1995 Quebec separation referendum. Ms. Smith's flirtation with separation will probably not cost her an election but it will cause chaos, which will inevitably negatively impact Alberta. 

Liberal Majority Government

Surprising no one the Liberals secured a majority government last night by sweeping the three by-elections. Then again, the victory in Terrebonne was not a foregone result but they still won.

For the first time in decades these by-elections actually had a profound impact on Canada's politics. On Monday morning Mark Carney was leading a minority government and by midnight he was leading a majority government. However, that is the only significance of the results of last night's by-elections.

Of course, that is not stopping people from asserting that the results have much bigger implications for Canadian politics.

The Conservatives underperformed compared to the 2025 general election so I am seeing some commentators stating that this could spell the end of the Conservative Party of Canada. 

I saw one NDP supporter cheer the fact that the NDP overperformed in one of the Toronto ridings by over 10 points, compared to the 2025 general election, and that person was cheering the the "NDP are back!" They still lost by over 40 points but that did not dim this person's enthusiasm. 

I say this after all by-elections. They are wrong. You cannot make these kinds of assertions based on their results. By-elections are a different beast from general elections, on several levels, so trying to extrapolate their results to the broader political landscape is silly and actually asserting that they are a harbinger of how the next general election will turn out is bordering on the criminal. (Not really but....)

These were the most significant by-elections in decades because they changed the nature of the government. However, that is the only conclusion you can draw from them. Any other assertions on the broader Canadian politics is drivel, and often self-serving drivel.

Incompetence

That is the only description that can be applied to how the US and Israel conducted the war on Iran.

They were stupid to start it to begin with but once the quick victory did not come to pass they should have ended it immediately. It would have cost them but not as much is it is going to cost them now.

Starting the war is just plain stupid but continuing it after the second week turned a misadventure into a disaster.

A few days into the war I wrote a post about the opening positions each side stated for negotiations. At the time the damage to US, Israeli and Iranian interests and infrastructure was relatively light and although the Strait of Hormuz had been closed it had not been closed long enough to cause real economic harm.

Neither side would have had the advantage so neither side would have been able to dig in. The US and Israel would have had to make some major concessions but so would have the Iranians.

Now, with the Strait being closed for almost six weeks and with it being proven that the US cannot do anything to change that fact the Iranian negotiation position is much stronger than it was in week two and probably stronger than the US/Israeli negotiation position.

That is why the Iranians dug in this weekend during the first round of peace negotiations in Pakistan. The US needs to end the war more than the Iranians do and the Iranians are going to take full advantage of that position.

In week two the Iranians would have probably had to give up their nuclear program and they would have had to curtail their missile production in exchange for sanctions being dropped and control of the Strait of Hormuz being formalized.

In week six that is no longer the case. 

So we will see where this goes. Donald Trump is going to rage, whine, lie and thump his chest but he will eventually be compelled to go back to the negotiating table and pretty much give everything the Iranians want. The only other alternative would be to start shooting again, which will just further strengthen the Iranian strategic position, making peace even more costly for the US in the future.

So he will make peace and probably before his two week deadline is up. Although it may take longer as he extends that deadline.

Israel would be happy with a renewal of the shooting but I believe that their worst nightmare is going to unfold over the next few weeks. Donald Trump is going to make a separate peace with the Iranians, leaving Israel to face a much strengthened Iran alone. He has no loyalty to anybody but himself and you can tell that he is reaching the conclusion that he needs to make peace with the Iranians or face political disaster at home.

So, there is a pause in the peace talks, which will lead to all sorts of posturing by the main combatants and low level violations of the cease fire but in the end a deal will be struck.

Once I see the final deal I may provide my assessment of it in this space at that time.

Maple MAGA is Going to be Going Through Some Stuff

Maple MAGA is already melting down. Through the defection of 5 opposition MPs to the Liberals, in the last few months, they are within one seat of gaining majority government status. There are three by-elections tomorrow and the Liberals are expected to gain at least two of the three with a reasonable probability that they will sweep them. That would give the Liberals a three seat majority. As well, it has been reported that other Conservative caucus members could move to the Liberal caucus in the coming weeks, giving the Liberals a more comfortable majority.

If this comes to pass we can probably expect Maple MAGA to react poorly.

By-elections being what they are no Liberal should take them for granted. In the past by-elections did not mean anything. They were just elections to fill vacant seats in between general elections and did not have any real impact on the political situation and they could not be taken as a harbinger of future elections, although commentators, both professional and amateur, often tied themselves into knots to prove otherwise.

This time it will be different. The results will lead to a majority government or force the Liberals to continue to work as a minority government. That will change the dynamic of them, from voter turnout usually being very low and many turning out to cast a protest vote, to voters actually voting to have a real impact on the federal political scene. 

However, assuming the Liberals win at least two of them, what is going to happen to Pierre Poilievre.

There are reports he may resign but I would bet money that he will not. If the Conservatives want to be rid of him they are going to have to push him out. He will not go voluntarily. 

I have stated the reason in this space before. If the next election is held in 2029, which would be the most probable outcome of the Liberals gaining majority government status, the leader of the CPC at that time will have a very good chance of becoming PM. There is no way that the Liberals will be able to fly as high as they are currently for the next three years. They will come back down to earth. Combine that with the fact 2029 will see the Liberals governing for 14 years, the chances of the Liberals winning the election in 2029 is probably less than 50/50.

Pierre Poilievre has to know this so unless he is forced out he will stick around. Ironically, if the Liberals gain enough seats for a majority the pressure will be reduced on Mr. Poilievre, even if more of his caucus leaves. The political dynamics of a majority government are much different from the dynamics of a minority government. He would have the luxury of just waiting out the Liberal surge and then attempt to take advantage of any downturn they experience. Without the prospect of a snap election he would have the luxury of time.

All of that will not reduce the extreme angst of Maple MAGA however so expect them to really lose their shit in the coming weeks if the by-elections results from tomorrow night play out as expected.

More Ridiculous Polls

I usually ignore the media polls. They are usually not worth my time. However, if you visit any kind of social media they are hard to miss. Someone is usually posting them so they are hard to miss.

About 18 months ago the media polls were indicating that the Conservatives were leading by 20 points, on average, with the seat models indicating that they would win up to 220+ seats. At the time I expressed the opinion that they were ridiculous for a whole host of reasons and that when an election looked imminent they would equalize. That's exactly what happened.

Now we are seeing the same trend, only favouring the Liberals this time. It is all BS. Yes, I would agree that Mark Carney is liked and respected by Canadians. Even my conservative relatives, who never had anything good to say about Justin Trudeau, like him. Yes I would agree that is rubbing off on the Liberal Party but not to the extent the media polls are indicating.

I will use the same arguments for that opinion. If they were true election speculation would be rampant. It would be the top domestic issue that the media would discuss. It would take second place to the ongoing war in Iran but even that is going to leave the front pages soon, if nothing really mind blowing does not happen in the next few days.

As well, I would remind you that the companies that publish these polls do not make money on them. They are marketing tools so they do not need to be super accurate in between elections because their estimates are not tested against actual election results. 

Judging by how the political parties are acting I would say that the Liberals are in a good position politically. However, I would argue that position is not nearly as good as the media polls are indicating.

As well, I would also like to point out that the "Conservative collapse" a year ago became part of the story of that election, which is also something I stated would happen.

The Liberals are in the same position. If they actually call an election you will see the leads in the media polls evaporate almost immediately, guaranteed. We saw that in the 2021 election. The Liberals opened up a10 point lead in the media polls, they foolishly called an election, and that lead evaporated literally the day after the writ was dropped. The Liberals still won but not the majority government the polls were saying they would sale to just 37 days before election day. That collapse would be the story of the campaign and media would never stop talking about.

So the Liberals should just ignore the noise and govern and hope that the media polls are right enough to win all of the by-elections on April 13.

What the End of the War In Iran Could Look Like

The two sides in the war in the middle east have provided their opening positions for the eventual negotiations for the end of the war.

The Americans have indicated that they will only accept an unconditional surrender.

The Iranians have provided a list of conditions for them to stop shooting. They are:

1. To hand over PM Netanyahu to the International Criminal Court
2. Israel to withdraw its forces to the October 7 borders
3. The Cancellation of President Trump's plans to turn Gaza into a tourist attraction
4. Lift all sanctions on Iran and unfreeze funds
5. Recognize Iran's nuclear rights
6. US and Israeli military is to leave Lebanon, Syria and Yemen
7. The US is to remove all of its military presence from the Arab soil
8. A public apology by Donald Trump to Mr. Khanenei
9. Compensation for every sanction ever imposed on Iran.

This would be very similar to an unconditional surrender by the US and Israel.

Neither side is going to accept the conditions demanded by their enemy so how can this lead to the secession of hsotilities?

As I stated at the beginning neither of these positions are meant to be accepted. They are the opening positions for negotiations. As with all high stakes negotiations the two sides always start out with the most unreasonable demands possible.

So just speculating what could an eventual deal look like.

For the US/Israel it would be:

• The promise by Iran to never close the Straits of Hormuz again.
• Iran would submit to very stringent nuclear inspections to be certain that they are unable to build nuclear weapons.
• I big reduction in their ballistic missile manufacturing. They can keep what they have currently but they cannot build new ones, unless the destroy an equal number of old ones.
• The same provision for drones.
• The recognition of the State of Israel, including statements that it has the right to exist
• A corollary to that is the ending of military aid to the various anti-Israel militias around the Middle East.

For the Iranians it would be:

• Iran is allowed to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear power, with provisions to ensure they keep that promise,
• Sanctions against Iran would be gradually lifted until they were gone.
• The removal of all US bases that currently surround Iran. Essentially the US presence in the Gulf and wider Middle East would at least be reduced if not completely removed.
• Israel would not be allowed to redevelop its anti-missile defences, except for those designed to intercept the short range rockets favoured by the anti-Israel militias.
• Israel would guarantee the security of Iran, and automatic sanctions would be placed on them by the international community if they violate that guarantee

All of this would include provisions to make certain that the two sides are keeping their sides of the bargain, overseen either by the UN or third parties mutually agreed upon by the two sides. The compliance provisions would be quite robust and open to all parties. As well, although the three main combatants in the conflict will do most of the negotiating other countries will be involved, including China and the European Union.

You will note that nothing about the plight of the Palestinians is mentioned above. They will be part of the negotiations but Iran will drop them pretty quick, provided they can get something they really want in return. The same is true about the personal stuff around PM Netanyahu and President Trump. Those are merely bargaining chips to be discarded as negotiations proceed.

Eventually they may move towards talking about confidence building measures but that is a ways off if it happens at all.

In the end Iran is going to want guarantees that it will not be attacked again and it wants the ability to hit back, hard, if Israel or the US decide to attack again.

Israel and the US want to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and prevent it from holding the international economy hostage again. 

Of course, like all peace agreements, the worth of this one would be the willingness of the two sides to adhere to it. 

That is a big problem but what nobody is talking about very much yet is the fact that this war is going to change the face of the Middle East. The old power dynamic that has been in existence for 60 or so years will be gone once the shooting stops. The Gulf States will never trust the US again. Iran will receive overt assistance from China to rebuild and I would bet money that they will allow the Chinese to build military bases in Iran. Global public opinion towards Israel will harden, including in the US, and their days of being able to do as they please to their neighbours will come to an end. 

All of the above is speculation but I believe it is a plausible outcome once both sides decide to stop the shooting.

Members of Parliament Crossing The Floor

The Carney Liberals picked up a fourth Member of Parliament from the Opposition parties, this time the NDP member from Nunavut. That brings the Liberals to 170 seats which means the Liberals only need to win two out of the three by-elections on April 13 to become a majority government, assuming no more floor crossings in either direction before that. Since two of those by-elections are taking place in Liberal strongholds the chances are pretty good for the Liberals, although not guaranteed. They are by-elections after all, which can sometimes surprise us.

Of course, this has created a great deal of angst and anger from the parties who lost Members, with them even stating that if the Liberals gain a majority as a result of floor crossings it is somehow illegitimate. They are wrong of course, Members switching sides predates Confederation so there is nothing inherently wrong with that. However, it is true that this is the first time in modern history that floor crossings could result in a minority government becoming a majority government and I have to admit that it does not completely meet the smell test. That does not mean I believe we should overturn almost 300 years of Parliamentary convention but I can understand why the Opposition parties might be much more aggrieved by the situation than for floor crossings that do not really have any impact on Party standings in the House.

As well, it does not look like any of the Members who switched parties are receiving anything in return. None appear to be destined for Cabinet and considering the success rate of floor crossers in subsequent elections is very low it can probably be concluded that their motivations were not completely self-serving.

As well, we need to look at the parties that have lost Members.

The Conservatives have become a caricature. Really, they are not a serious party anymore. Pierre Poilievre decisively won his leadership review but this has not positively impacted the CPC. As well, he went full Maple MAGA leading up to the review, which I thought was just because he needed to secure them to secure the leadership, but he has not pivoted to a message that would appeal to a broader audience. In fact, he has doubled down on the MAGA rhetoric. As well, it has been widely reported that his leadership style does not allow for much freedom for his caucus. That approach is a good one if you are seen as a winner. Stephen Harper did that when he was PM but no one in the CPC caucus cared because they were the governing party. When you are not the governing party such a tight leash on your members can alienate them, which can result in the floor crossings we have seen in recent months. In short, Pierre Poilievre should do some self-reflection but it appears he is not doing so. That could mean that more CPC MPs may decide life would be better on the Liberal benches.

The NDP is a mess. It is going through an existential crisis and it is rather irrelevant in Parliament. Encouragingly, the front runner for the leadership of the party looks like he will create an actual identity for the party. Whether Canadians will get on board with that identity remains to be seen but at least they will have one, which was something that was missing from the party since before 2015.

The NDP member who crossed the floor is from the North, which has somewhat different politics. Northerners are less partisan, tending to elect Members they believe can deliver the goods for the north. The MP from Nunavut probably concluded that she could do that much better from the government benches instead of staying with a party that does not have official party status in the House of Commons.

So if the Liberals actually do achieve a majority government by the end of next month that is going to give all of the Opposition parties time to get their shit together while virtually guaranteeing the slow erosion of the Liberals' popularity. There is no way the Liberals can fly as high as they are currently flying for the next three years. They are going to come back down to earth. If this Parliament makes it to 2029 that election is going to be very interesting and I would bet that it could be a change election. So there might be a silver lining to these floor crossings for the Opposition parties. We will see.

Impact of War on Iran to the United States

In the short term I believe this will make President Trump a lame duck long before the mid-term elections. The reason is the unpopularity of the war and the economic fallout from it are going to make the Democrats a virtual lock to take back both houses of the the US Congress. That will probably cause the Republicans to finally attempt to rein him in to try to staunch the bleeding. It probably will not happen soon but I suspect we will see it happen after most of the primaries are complete. It will be after that time when incumbent Republican politicians will no longer be in danger of being replaced for the November election and when they will need to do something to increase their chances during that election. 

As well, the US can pretty much kiss all of the alliances in the Middle East goodbye, except for Israel. The Gulf States will probably not cut ties completely, because they do not currently have viable alternatives, but I would bet a sizable chunk of money that they will begin to look to China to assist them. Their alliance with the US was to serve as a deterrent to Iran from doing exactly what it has been doing for the last nine days but that deterrent only works if the US does not attack Iran first. China will have no problem in turning the Persian Gulf into a Chinese lake and I suspect, after the war ends, the people of the United States would say "Let them have it."

In the longer term the US will be weakened by the war diplomatically. However, that has been happening for quite some time and it predates the election of Donald Trump in 2016. His election then and again in 2024 has accelerated that trend but we need to be careful not to overstate it. As well, there could be a case made that this war could hasten the time when the US Dollar ceases to be the reserve currency but if so that is a long time away and many things could happen before then so we can safely dismiss such arguments for now. It is not going to happen before the end of the decade and speculating on what will happen on a longer timeline is like trying to figure out what the weather is going to be like a year from now. 

The two main rivals to the US are Russia and China. 

One thing that everybody has to remember about Russia is it is a country with an economy the size of Italy's and it is shrinking. The once great Russian (Soviet) armed forces, which everybody thought would be able to roll through Western Europe with ease back in the 80s, has made absolutely no progress in four years of war with Ukraine. Indeed, there is some evidence that they have suffered some very substantial setbacks on the battlefield in recent weeks and many credible analysts have indicated that they have blown through all of their reserves of tanks and armoured vehicles. As well, the same analysts are indicating that they have lost around 1 million men during that four years and are suffering a recruiting crisis. In other words, they have pretty much "bled themselves white" since the war started. This all bodes ill for Vladimir Putin's ambitions for the rest of Europe. If they have a hard time against Ukraine, they will have an even harder time against NATO. Yes, they are in a bit of disarray because of Donald Trump but that really is not relevant. The Russians are going to take years, if not a decade or so, to rebuild their strength enough for any more adventures in Europe, those same Europeans are taking steps to rearm and will reach their targets before the end of the decade and Donald Trump will be gone, replaced by a President that will probably try to rebuild the alliances and trust that Donald Trump as squandered in the last few months. (And Putin will probably be gone and Russia may do what it has done for centuries, replace a leader who turned away from the West with one who turns toward it.)

Considering this, if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, their threat to Western Europe would not be taken as seriously as it is currently. But they will be of no help because if they try to "nuke" any part of Western Europe they will have to deal with a potential nuclear retaliation from the US, Britain and France.

Some are saying the the war has weakened the US enough to allow China to take Taiwan. (I even heard one fool say they could take Japan *headshake*). The problem with that is even after this war the US will have the most powerful military in the world. That is not going to change anytime soon. Any attack on Taiwan will be different from what we are seeing in the Middle East. The Taiwan Strait is not wide but it is wide enough that any invasion force would be at the end of a very tenuous supply line, which could easily be cut for a time by the Taiwanese themselves and permanently cut with the assistance of the US. They still have 11 carrier groups that would pay merry hell with the amphibious ships that China would have to use to invade Taiwan. If they successfully cut that supply line then the invasion of Taiwan fails and the Chinese know it. That fact has not been changed by the events of the last 10 days.

Economically China's progression towards replacing the US as the largest economy has slowed to a crawl. It could speed up again, particularly if they gain more influence in the Middle East, but we probably will not see that happen for the foreseeable future and there are just too many variables at play to conclude it will happen at this point. I personally believe it will but that is just my gut talking. I have no solid evidence to back it up and at any rate I also do not believe it will happen soon. 

So the US is going to come out of this war more diminished than it already was when it started the war. We are going to see some shifting of influence and alliances away from the US in the Middle East but they will not come out so diminished that either Russia or China will be in a position to take real advantage of that. The great power struggle that we have been seeing for the last few years will continue without any resolution, one way or another, for the foreseeable future.