What the End of the War In Iran Could Look Like

The two sides in the war in the middle east have provided their opening positions for the eventual negotiations for the end of the war.

The Americans have indicated that they will only accept an unconditional surrender.

The Iranians have provided a list of conditions for them to stop shooting. They are:

1. To hand over PM Netanyahu to the International Criminal Court
2. Israel to withdraw its forces to the October 7 borders
3. The Cancellation of President Trump's plans to turn Gaza into a tourist attraction
4. Lift all sanctions on Iran and unfreeze funds
5. Recognize Iran's nuclear rights
6. US and Israeli military is to leave Lebanon, Syria and Yemen
7. The US is to remove all of its military presence from the Arab soil
8. A public apology by Donald Trump to Mr. Khanenei
9. Compensation for every sanction ever imposed on Iran.

This would be very similar to an unconditional surrender by the US and Israel.

Neither side is going to accept the conditions demanded by their enemy so how can this lead to the secession of hsotilities?

As I stated at the beginning neither of these positions are meant to be accepted. They are the opening positions for negotiations. As with all high stakes negotiations the two sides always start out with the most unreasonable demands possible.

So just speculating what could an eventual deal look like.

For the US/Israel it would be:

• The promise by Iran to never close the Straits of Hormuz again.
• Iran would submit to very stringent nuclear inspections to be certain that they are unable to build nuclear weapons.
• I big reduction in their ballistic missile manufacturing. They can keep what they have currently but they cannot build new ones, unless the destroy an equal number of old ones.
• The same provision for drones.
• The recognition of the State of Israel, including statements that it has the right to exist
• A corollary to that is the ending of military aid to the various anti-Israel militias around the Middle East.

For the Iranians it would be:

• Iran is allowed to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear power, with provisions to ensure they keep that promise,
• Sanctions against Iran would be gradually lifted until they were gone.
• The removal of all US bases that currently surround Iran. Essentially the US presence in the Gulf and wider Middle East would at least be reduced if not completely removed.
• Israel would not be allowed to redevelop its anti-missile defences, except for those designed to intercept the short range rockets favoured by the anti-Israel militias.
• Israel would guarantee the security of Iran, and automatic sanctions would be placed on them by the international community if they violate that guarantee

All of this would include provisions to make certain that the two sides are keeping their sides of the bargain, overseen either by the UN or third parties mutually agreed upon by the two sides. The compliance provisions would be quite robust and open to all parties. As well, although the three main combatants in the conflict will do most of the negotiating other countries will be involved, including China and the European Union.

You will note that nothing about the plight of the Palestinians is mentioned above. They will be part of the negotiations but Iran will drop them pretty quick, provided they can get something they really want in return. The same is true about the personal stuff around PM Netanyahu and President Trump. Those are merely bargaining chips to be discarded as negotiations proceed.

Eventually they may move towards talking about confidence building measures but that is a ways off if it happens at all.

In the end Iran is going to want guarantees that it will not be attacked again and it wants the ability to hit back, hard, if Israel or the US decide to attack again.

Israel and the US want to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and prevent it from holding the international economy hostage again. 

Of course, like all peace agreements, the worth of this one would be the willingness of the two sides to adhere to it. 

That is a big problem but what nobody is talking about very much yet is the fact that this war is going to change the face of the Middle East. The old power dynamic that has been in existence for 60 or so years will be gone once the shooting stops. The Gulf States will never trust the US again. Iran will receive overt assistance from China to rebuild and I would bet money that they will allow the Chinese to build military bases in Iran. Global public opinion towards Israel will harden, including in the US, and their days of being able to do as they please to their neighbours will come to an end. 

All of the above is speculation but I believe it is a plausible outcome once both sides decide to stop the shooting.