Stephen Harper and the stench of political death

There is a rather noxious odor coming from 24 Sussux and it is not the smell of the mould that is to be removed during the renovations.

Stephen Harper is looking more and more like a government leader who knows that his days in that position are numbered. It is apparent in the way he is carrying himself and in his actions. Indeed, the similarities between him and Paul Martin after the Brault revelations during the Gomery Inquiry hearings is striking.

After those revelations everybody in this town knew that Mr. Martin would never win another election.

The November economic statement was the beginning of the transformation from political strongman to political has been and the Senate appointments will be what cements Mr. Harper's fate. For the second time in less than a month I heard my co-workers talking about politics today, specifically the Senate appointments, and like a few weeks ago their statements were not at all positive towards Mr. Harper. Mr. Harper, Mr. Manning and other Reformers, God bless them, were very successful in denigrating the Senate in the eyes of Canadians so the stacking of the Senate by one of them, with party bagmen and party hacks, is going to have a much greater impact on public opinion than if a Liberal would have done it. All of the other acts of hypocracy by this government were largely ignored but this last one is going to stick.

Again, like Mr. Martin, I believe Mr. Harper will enjoy a temporary reprieve from the Headman's axe in January but it will be short-lived. The idea of a coalition does not sit well with Canadians and that fact is causing an artificial boost in support for the Conservatives. However, once the "threat" of a coalition disappears at the end of January Conservative Party numbers will catch up to the sudden low standing Stephen Harper enjoys with Canadians. Then, sometime in the spring or summer the Big Three automakers are going to announce massive layoffs AFTER accepting billions in government handouts and that will mark the beginning of the final death spiral of support for the Conservatives. Incidently, those layoffs are going to happen no matter what. The structural problems with the Big Three cannot be solved with tax payers money. It will only be solved by major restructuring and that means lost jobs in the thousands.

Stephen Harper is beyond political redemption. My guess is we will no longer by talking about him during the holiday season of 2009. His own party will either turf him or Canadians will turf him, probably in the Fall of 2009.

Fools

Stephen Harper handed the Liberal Party a great gift on Thursday morning. He did something that cannot be spun as being a good idea and he did it for the most cynical of political motives. The Liberals could have taken advantage of that fact by spending the last four days pounding Stephen Harper for that action. When Stephen Harper's actions were still fresh in the minds of Canadians they could have used those actions to cement in the minds of Canadians that when Stephen Harper was faced with his VERY FIRST REAL CHALLENGE as Prime Minister he ran away like a craven coward. They could have highlighted his words from the last election campaign that governing does not allow for "do overs". They could have pounded on the fact that decision and the actions leading up to it undermines both our democracy and our national unity. They could have pounded him on the original reason why we had a political crisis to begin with, the do nothing economic statement, pointing out how wrong it was by tying it in with the latest unemployment numbers.

They could have said this with one voice. Every Liberal who spoke to the media, whether in print, on the radio, or on television could have spoken of nothing but those points. They could have hammered home this message.

Did the Liberals do this?

Of course not. When their chief opponent and the party they hope to replace as the government gave them a once in a lifetime opportunity to really hurt them the Liberals reverted to snapping and snarling AT ONE ANOTHER like a bunch of curs fighting over a pile of offal. (Which is what the Liberal Party is quickly becoming.)

I am certain that Stephen Harper, coming off of the most difficult week of his political life, was very pleased with the Liberals this past weekend. He and the Conservatives were probably scambling on Friday to come up with a strategy and a message to counter any Liberal attempt to take advantage of Thursday morning and I am certain they were very relieved when Liberals began talking about their own leadership as opposed to Stephen Harper's.

I am now more convinced as ever that the only way the Liberals are ever going to get their game back is to hit rock bottom and spend a great deal of time in the political wilderness. A wilderness where they will not even have a sniff at power for at least four years. That is the only way to get rid of the hangers on and political hacks that have infested the party. These folks only hang around because they expect favours from the party when it achieves power so if the party has no chance of doing that any time soon they will desert the party, leaving the true believers in Liberal values behind to rebuild the party.

As for Mr. Dion I have a piece of advice. You took a great deal of abuse from seperatists on behalf of the Liberal Party and the Party paid you back by heaping even more abuse on you since you won the leadership of it. So Mr. Dion my advice to you is to resign both your position and your seat immediately. You do not owe the Liberal Party anything at this point. Return to your life and write a book about your experiences and if you choose to name names with regard to your recent job as Liberal leader I would not blame you. Not that you would because you have too much class for that. Certainly more class than those who would replace you.

The Liberals have forgotten the KISS principle

The Liberal message last week after the announcement of the coalition:

Canadians do not vote for a Prime Minister. They vote for an individual Member of Parliament. Those Members of Parliament make up the House of Commons and for a Prime Minister to govern he must have the confidence of that House of Commons. Stephen Harper only won a minority government so the opposition, which is the majority in The House and represents 62% of those who voted in the election a few weeks ago, can take over after they vote non-confidence in the government on December 8.

The Conservative message last week after the announcement of the coalition:

We won the election, we earned the right to govern, and the losers are just making a power grab with the help of those evil seperatists.

Which argument won? Exactly.

It does not matter that the Conservative message is wrong. It does matter that it is a simple message, easy to deliver and it acknowledges the fact that Canadians are too lazy or too uninterested to really get the truth about most issues and the fact that even if they were interested the MSM in this country don't do facts.

Conservatives on both sides of the 49th parallel have perfected this, which is why they have been so successful in this decade. The Liberals have been terrible at this and the Democrats were until Obama came along. He at least understands that you need to remember the KISS principle.

As soon at the coalition was announced they should have changed the channel and went with a very simple argument. Pounding the Conservatives on the economy and their lack of help in the economic statement, while throwing a line to the Conservatives that included a simple explanation of what the coalition would do differently would have been a great idea.

What bothers me the most about all of this is the Liberals have shown no signs of changing. They are still trying to explain the niceties and nuances of our Parliamentary democracy to Canadians while blaming Stephane Dion for the current mess. As I stated yesterday he does share some of the responsibility for this situation but he is not the only one. As well, none of his erstwhile replacements have shown that they would be an improvement on this score. Bob Rae is still trying to sell the coalition. Michael Ignatieff just seems to be in a fog. I watched him yesterday on Newman's show and I was just left shaking my head. Thankfully, no one but political junkies watch that show so he did not make any real difference with that performance.

Liberals are going to have to come to grips with the fact that replacing Stephane Dion, whether it is now or in May, is not going to solve this problem. They are going to have to learn how to boil down their ideas into simple, believeable and punchy arguments. They are going to have to learn how to fudge the truth. They are going to have to acknowledge the fact that the days of trying to explain anything to an uninterested electorate are gone, to be replaced with the need to dumb down your arguments, and adjust their communications strategies accordingly.

What is the coalition to do now?

The coalition train has left the station. It was always a long shot that it would take over government and now even that long shot is done. So, what they should do is take up Mr. Harper's offer of consultation on the economy with the proviso that they include the Bloc and they should do this Monday morning.

Their argument should be that even if the Conservatives put forward a budget on January 26, with all sorts of stimulus, it would still need to be debated in The House, making the likely passing of it in February or later. They could argue that the government and the opposition could hammer out a deal before that so that when it is introduced there could be a minimum of debate and it could be passed much quicker. They could further argue that such an action is warranted by just pointing to the latest job numbers released today. Finally, they could argue that although they do not agree with the ideology of the Bloc, the Bloc does represent around 4 million Canadians and those Canadians need a voice at the table, to discuss the economic situation and what to do about it, as much as every other Canadian.

This would have the benefit of wrong-footing Mr. Harper. If anybody really believes his offer of consultations yesterday was genuine I have a bridge between Vancouver and Tokyo to sell you. Such an offer would put him into a tight spot because he would either have to agree, which will make his head explode, or disagree and appear to be uncooperative, undermining his argument. As well, it would short curcuit the upcoming PR campaign of the Conservatives. They can hardly attack the coalition if they are negotiating an economic stimulus package with them.

Of course, the Conservatives and the media will depict this as a climbdown by the coalition but as my last post points out they are going to find a way to depict the coalition in a way the best benefits the Conservatives anyway. So, the coalition might as well do something unexpected. It would wrong foot both the Conservatives and the media.

On a related topic I would like to mention that I am very disappointed with the PR strategy of the coalition. The only strategy they had was to release their agreement at a joint press conference one whole week before the confidence motion and nothing else. They did not seem prepared for the counter strategy, except to keep claiming that what they were proposing is legal and democratic within our system. Call me cynical but most Canadians are too stupid or too lazy to know the inner workings of our system. The Conservatives played to a simple concept. "We won the election and the coalitions is trying to steal it". The message resonated and I can guarantee that when they continue saying that for the next two months it will continue to do so. The coalition's counter: "What we are doing is legal and democratic". That argument went over like a lead balloon. Say what you will about them but the political right in this country and in the US have perfected the strategy of appealing to the "guts" of voters while the left seem to be stuck trying to appeal to their "heads". The election of George Bush, the two election victories by the Conservatives and the reaction of Canadians to the coalition idea should convince Liberals in this country to change their focus somewhat.

Of course, many are blaming Stephane Dion for this failure and he certainly shares some of the responsibility. However, it should be noted that the polls are telling us that Canadians have pretty well rejected the idea of a coalition. Very little is mentioned of the individuals in the coalition. So, I believe it is grossly unfair to only blame Stephane Dion for this failure. There are three political parties involved in this deal with their political strategy teams. There are three Liberal leadership contenders with their teams. Could not one person on those six teams foresee that the coalition PR strategy would be inadequate? Have they not been paying attention to how effective the Conservatives are in leveling attacks and producing a strategy to counter it as soon as the Conservatives unleashed theirs? Judging by the results the answer is no.

The coalition failure was a result of the coalition failing to develop a strategy beyond last Monday. That was a collective failure and not just that of one man.

Is the media pro-Conservative?

Stephen Harper did something unprecedented yesterday that has grave ramifications for our democracy so I decided to take a look at all of the media reports on it today to see what they said.

By and large I was not impressed. Although much was generally negative I found the criticism very muted. In fact, my home town newspaper, The Ottawa Citizen, did not even feature the fact Mr. Harper shut down Parliament to prevent his government's defeat. Instead it feature the Ipsos poll. I was aghast. The leader of the government ran away from Parliament to avoid being defeated and they put a poll on their front page under a banner headline about the poll.

As well, I noticed that all of the news organizations paid an inordinate amount of time talking about Liberal disunity. Again, the leader of the government opened up the possibility of future leaders governing without the confidence of The House for up to a year and they are talking about the Liberal Party. Unbelievable.

Where is the outrage over what Mr. Harper did? Why are they not howling from the rooftops?

I can guarantee that if Paul Martin would have done this in 2005 we would never have heard the end of it. They would have kept it on the frontpages for weeks. I can also guarantee that today will be the last day we hear about this. Oh certainly, there will be a few more stories buried in the back pages for a few more days and then that will be it.

When I see this combined with the remarkably lopsided coverage of the last election I can only conclude that the media is indeed pro-Conservative. It took me awhile to get here. I have always disliked the media because I have always believed that they are lazy, unimaginative, self-righteous and they have the herd instinct of the African Wildebeast. However, I always rejected the notion that they were biased.

That view has changed.

The only question for me is if this is permanent or just the swinging of the pendulum. I do remember how the media pretty much destroyed Stockwell Day during the 2000 election so I know the Liberals have not always been the victim of this. So we will have to wait and see but for now the media is definitely pro-Conservative.

The coalition missed an opportunity

I really wonder what would have happened today if the coalition would have done this yesterday.

The coalition idea should never have been an end in itself. It should have been a means to an end. If the Governor General would have been presented with a Prime Minister asking for the shutdown of Parliament when there was a proposal on the table she might not have granted his request.

At the very least, if she would have the media might have had to report that Stephen Harper asked for the shutdown of Parliament even though the coalition had thrown him a lifeline.

This should be a lesson to all of the opposition. If you present your coalition as a way to show cooperation in Parliament you should try to get the cooperation of the government as well as the other opposition parties. That way you look genuine and it is much more difficult for the government and their many, many, many friends in the media to depict you as "power hungry" bastards working with the seperatists.

Thank you Madame Jean

The decision by the Governor General this afternoon is certainly a blow to those Liberals who were drunk on the possibility of the Liberals taking power from the Conservatives as part of a coalition.

However, Madame Jean has done them and all Liberals a favour, even if that does not appear to be the case right now.

Mr. Harper made a gross political miscalculation by putting no less than three poison pills into the most recent economic update. When the opposition unexpectantly said "Up yours" and pushed back hard Mr. Harper found himself in fatal trouble. He has spent the last week trying to squirm out of that trouble using all sorts of underhanded tactics, including insulting a large number of Quebecers. All of this was unscripted and we all know what happens to the fortunes the Harper Party when it goes off scipt. All of that was great news for the Liberals but the mother lode was Mr. Harper seeking and receiving the shutdown of Parliament.

Mr. Harper ran away.

He faced defeat and instead of taking it like a man he did something absolutely unprecedented to avoid it. This past week culminating in that act has done to the Harper Party what Adscam did to Paul Martin's Liberals. In fact I have been treated to a whole week of people talking about the events of this week around the "water cooler" and on the bus. That has not happened since Adscam broke in 2004. As well, nothing of what people are saying is positive towards Mr. Harper.

Mr. Harper now finds himself completely discredited leading a discredited party at the beginning of a recession. This is particularly true in Quebec where Conservative numbers are probably heading towards single digits and will probably stay there if the much anticipated ad attack on the coalition comes to pass in the coming weeks. By golly, Liberals should be dancing in the street at that prospect.

The added bonus is Mr. Harper my be able to hang on to the leadership of the Conservatives. He has retained the Prime Minister's chair which means that he has all of the power to punish anybody in his caucus who tries to organize against him. I cannot think of one cabinet minister in his cabinet that has the integrity to give up their cabinet post and all of its perks to take on Mr. Harper. However, if he does get booted out who will take his place? He is a one man government. No one else has the same stature as he does or even the same name recognition and those who do might have it for the wrong reasons. Peter MacKay (roll eyes), Stock Day (giggle), Maxime Bernier (LOL). Jim Prentice is named as the most competent minister but most people could not pick him out of a line up. He does not enjoy the stature necessary to bring the Conservatives back as a credible party in the small amount of time between now and the next election.

Contrast that with the Liberals. Both Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Rae are well known compared to any of the "big guns" in the Conservative Party.

Some have stated they are concerned about the upcoming PR blitz. Unlike the one they had for Mr. Dion this next one is going to be done from a position of weakness. It will also be defensive in nature. As well, I would imagine Canadians would really appreciate a recently discredited political party showering them with political ads during the holiday season. I am certain it will go over very well. All that being said, the Liberals should be preparing themselves to walk away from the coalition idea. It was a long shot to begin with, but its credible threat served its purpose. Now it is time to change gears. The Liberals should keep the pressure on and be prepared to pounce when the Conservatives deliver a budget that has all of the measures in the coalition agreement but they should not try to form another coalition again, unless Mr. Harper is stupid enough to put another poison pill into the January budget.

The Harper Party is going to be at the mercy of the opposition. Gone are the days of confidence motions for anything but money bills. After running away from a confidence vote they were likely to lose any shred of credibility they have left will evaporate if they try to make other measures matters of confidence.

The Conservative Party find themselves with their credibility in tatters, being lead by leader that is now a huge liability, but he will never admit that, at the beginning of a recession that would probably cause major problems for governments in much better shape. The attack on Quebecers will cost them support on Quebec and the recession will cost them support in the big cities and in the suburbs. Today could mark the day when the Liberals begin their march back to majority government.

Is this a political crisis, constitutional crisis or a national unity crisis?

Judging by the increasingly strident and shrill arguments from the Conservatives they would seem to believe the latter. Some of them are saying that the coalition as it stands would cause a huge jump in western seperatism while others are howling at the idea of the coalition governing with the support of *gasp* the Bloc Quebecois.

Of course it is all BS.

In the west there has never been much of a seperatist movement. There are certainly a number of wingnuts who have a talent for getting themselves noticed but when westerners are asked about whether they wish to go their own way the percentage that say yes are always in the single digits, even in Alberta the "hotbed" of western alienation. Of course, that does not stop politicians, usually Conservative politicians, from talking up the "threat". Some might argue that the method of the ouster of the Conservatives (if it comes to pass) may cause an upsurge in seperatist sentiment. That is a dubious argument at the best of times and downright silly in the current economic climate. If the Alberta economy were still booming and oil prices were still around $150/barrel we might see an uptick in support but it would not be enough to even touch the support for sovereignty in Quebec when it is at its lowest ebb. With oil prices at around $50/barrel and a severe credit crisis most westerners, including Albertans, will have the same concerns that every Canadian has right now. What is going to happen to my job? My house? My kids' education? I would make a substantial wager that even amongst the Conservative "base" there are those that agree that the economy needs stimulating, although they would prefer the Conservatives to do it instead of the coalition.

In Quebec there is no appetite for seperation or even sovereignty association at the moment. The PQ is running a distant second behind Jean Charest and Gilles Duceppe owes the positive results in the most recent general election, in part, to Mr. Harper and his ill considered attacks on the arts. If Mr. Harper would not have made that big miscalculation he would probably not have to be worrying about any non-confidence motions on Monday.

As has been pointed out the idea of having a say in how the country is governed seems to appeal to Quebecers. The polls say so and so does the generally positive coverage the coalition is receiving from the french language newspapers in Quebec. Would it not be interesting if Quebecers became used to that and decided they wanted more?

I think that is one of the possible side effects of this whole affair. Quebecers stopped caring about the governance of Canada 15 years ago and had not been showing any signs of warming to the idea any time soon.

This coalition could change all of that. If it does, the Conservatives are really going to rue the day they went so over the top attacking the Bloc and the people who voted for it. The reason being is if Quebecers decide that they want to re-engage in governing the country many will turn to national parties to achieve that goal. The actions of the Conservatives in the last couple of days could very well cause those Quebecers to turn to the other national parties, particularly the Liberals.

So, the actions of Mr. Harper today could be sowing the seeds of the eventual political defeat of his successor sometime in the future.

Is that what they mean by karma?

The coalition needs to change the channel

Stephen Harper is finished. He in not a lame duck he is a dead duck. In all likelihood he will lose his job as leader of the Conservative Party before Stephane Dion steps down as leader of the Liberal Party. (And if anybody would have made such a prediction a few short weeks ago I would have suggested they seek professional help)

What that means is the coalition can throw him a lifeline in the coming days with very little risk. And the coalition will need to do that.

As expected the MSM has come out hard against the coalition and they are parroting Conservative talking points. These will resonate with Canadians. I have seen alot of Liberal and Progressive bloggers making all sorts of statements about how what the coalition is doing is legal and within the rules of the Canadian democracy. Well, that and a loonie will buy you a cup of coffee. Most Canadians do not know about the niceties and the nuances of the Westminster parliamentary system. They will not spend alot of time over the next little while to learn about them and their main source of information, if they were interested, is the MSM and they are not inclined to inform them anyway.

As a result, we will see a significant number of Canadians who believe the coalition is not legitimate and that it is just a power grab. Under such conditions the coalition would not last long and would probably do harm to the country. Not to mention the harm it could do to the Liberal Party.

So, the coalition needs to change the topic of conversation away from the "power grab" meme and the best way to do that is to throw Mr. Harper a lifeline.

Some time tomorrow the coalition should issue a joint statement to Mr. Harper, copying the media, that they are willing to talk to Mr. Harper about finding a solution to the current political crisis. They should state that such talks will involve implementing some of the policies outlined in the coalition agreement document. As well, they should state that if no agreement is in place by December 8, they will go ahead and vote down Mr. Harper's government and ask the Governor General to give the coalition the opportunity to win the confidence of The House.

The explanation that the coalition should give Canadians is they want to make this Parliament work. That they will do whatever they can to make it work but that it is up to Mr. Harper to meet them part of the way. Further they can state the disruption of a protracted political crisis in not in Canada's interest at this time so they are willing to take steps to resolve it. Again, providing Mr. Harper is willing to meet them part of the way.

This would have the advantage of pulling the teeth out of the "power grab" meme. It would demonstrate that the coalition is serious about removing the Conservative government but only if that government is unwilling to work with them. And most importantly it would put the ball firmly back into Mr. Harper's court, which is where the coalition should want it to be. Keep the pressure on him. He will either have to give in and the idea of giving into the hated Liberals in general and Stephane Dion in particular will virtually guarantee Mr. Harper's removal from the head of that party. Or, he will be defiant and the coalition can then claim that Mr. Harper was unwilling to work with them despite being offered the opportunity by them. Or he can try to end this session of Parliament, which will really look bad after being offered an olive branch.

There is still a long time to go before that non-confidence motion and we all know that a few days is a life time in politics. If the coalition wants to keep the initiative they had better be prepared for the possibility of not taking power if it will advance the greater cause of providing assistance to Canadians in tough economic times and removing Mr. Harper from the Canadian political scene.

Well, I guess it is done

The Canadian Parliament seems to be on an unalterable course towards and Liberal/NDP coalition government. With the signing of the accord, in public, today neither one of those two parties can now back out or give in to Mr. Harper. Even the Bloc, who has not joined the coalition, has decided to make peace with the Liberals for at least a year and a half. I figured that the last refuge for Mr. Harper would have been to call Mr. Duceppe and say "Name your price" for although the Bloc might be aligned with the Liberals and NDP in social matters they are more closely aligned with the Conservatives in matters of the role of the Federal government in the affairs of the provinces. Mr. Duceppe appeared to cut off that avenue of escape for Mr. Harper today by signing this accord. He would look really conniving if he betrayed Mr. Dion and Mr. Layton just days after signing an agreement with them.

I still have my reservations about this whole coalition government idea and I have outlined my reasons in my two previous posts. However, that does not matter any more because events have moved past the point of no return, at least from the standpoint of the Liberals and the NDP.

Although, I believe Liberals better be prepared for savage attacks by the Conservatives and their apologists in the MSM. They are going to savage the idea of a coalition, the Liberals, and lastly the GG until the vote on non-confidence. Then they had better be prepared for even worse attacks if they actually take power. The BS from Mr. Ivison yesterday was just the beginning.

The coalition deal itself seems to be a good one and a fair one so we can probably expect the parties to adhere to their agreements. Although, I have doubts that this coalition will last until 2011. I think the Bloc has it right, 18 months if we are lucky.

Good on Mr. Dion for sticking with his plan to resign in May. I dare say that such a man of integrity will make one hell of a caretaker PM.

Of course, this is still not a done deal. Stephen Harper may still be able to pull a rabbit out of his butt and save himself and his government and I am looking forward to seeing him squirm for the remainder of the week.

Your move Mr. Harper.

Patience Liberals, Patience

After the last election I washed my hands of the Liberal Party because I believed they had made a massive error in beginning a leadership contest at this time. I believed that it would be handing Stephen Harper a big victory in the next election, despite him leading a government during a recession, because the new Liberal leader would be unknown to Canadians, the Liberals would be broke and they would still be suffering the hangover of what is going to be a hard fought leadership contest. Canadians would take one look at that and stick with the Conservatives as the lesser of two unpalatable choices.

All of the above was premised on the assumption that Stephen Harper would play it smooth for the next few months and not do anything really stupid. Well, wasn't that a bad assumption to make.

Stephen Harper has just damaged himself very badly. The Conservatives were destined to have trouble as a result of being the government during a recession. However, that was going to happen gradually as the economic bad news piled up and be mitigated by the silliness of a Liberal leadership race. Stephen Harper has just accelerated that trouble and that leaves the Liberals with a huge opportunity to make that trouble have a more immediate and longer lasting impact on the fortunes of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

The first step in that process should be presenting a proposal to the Conservatives early this coming week on how to make the economic statement acceptable to the Liberals while downplaying the idea of forming a coalition.

That proposal should include the following major provisions:

• The government bring forward all of the money that has been earmarked for infrastructure for expenditure in this fiscal year. In addition the government increase Employment Insurance benefits, including the loosening of qualification requirements, the increase in the amount paid out per payment and the extension of the time people can receive the benefits.
• The government subsidy for political parties be reduced to $1.50 per vote but the donation limit be increased to $50,000 and the restriction on unions and corporations donating to political parties be eliminated. As well, this issue is to be dropped permanently.
• The government admit the existance of a deficit.
• This package be approved by Parliament before the end of January 2009.

Of course the Conservatives will balk at these proposals so the Liberals just need to state that, if the Conservatives make it necessary, they will just implement these proposals themselves when they take over a coalition government. All of these proposals would be supported by the other Opposition Parties. So, Stephen Harper who is looking at the very sudden and humiliating end to his political career would give in after some negotiation. So the final negotiating position of the Liberals should be:

• 60% of the infrastructure money spent this fiscal year and at least one aspect of the Employment Insurance program being enhanced.
• $1.75 per vote, $10,000 donation limit, elimination of restriction on donations by corporations and unions. Issue not to be revisited for at least two years.
• admission of deficit.
• package to be approved by Parliament by end of January 2009.

Providing the Conservatives a little bit of a lifeline provides benefits to the Liberals in the short, medium and long-term.

In the short term, they would be the only party on The Hill who would look like adults and who would look like they wanted to make THIS Parliament work. As well, they would immediately take the sting out of the Conservative attacks on the idea of a coalition as it would be clear that the only way it would come about was Conservative stubbornness. No matter what the Conservatives do their credibility will be badly damaged.

In the medium term Liberals would be able to take alot of credit for the implementation of both an economic stimulus package and increased assistance to those Canadians who are victimized by the coming recession. As well, they would level the playing field somewhat in the fundraising game.

In the long term they would be able to leave a badly damaged Conservative government in place to take the full brunt of the political fallout of the coming recession.

This week, if they stay calm and focused, the Liberal Party could set up a majority government victory for themselves in 12-24 months and further solidify in the minds of Canadians, for at least one political generation, that Conservatives cannot be trusted with the economy. If you ask me that is not a huge price to pay for a little patience.

A coalition if necessary but not necessarily a coalition

The signs of a deep world wide recession are all there. The US is already in their recession and many of the European states are showing similar signs. Even the Chinese have seen their economic growth slip from 11% to 7%, which in relative terms is a recession for them.

The residual strength of the oil patch has so far kept Canada out of a general country wide recession but the slip in oil prices and the increased difficulty in acquiring credit will bring the recession to Western Canada, resulting in Canada joining the rest of the world.

History has conclusively proven that governments cannot prevent recessions. They cannot reduce their length and they cannot do anything that provides more than just fleeting relief from their effects. History has also conclusively proven that recessions kill governments. No matter what governments do it is never effective and the inevitable failure of their actions just causes them damage that is fatal to their chances of retaining power.

The recession that is descending on Canada at this moment will be no different. It will kill whichever government is in power over the next 12-18 months. No amount of stimulus provided by that government will change that. Recessions have a life cycle and the only thing we can do, as citizens, his hang on and try to survive to the other side. Unfortunately, we are at the beginning of that life cycle so we have a long way to go before things will get better.

All political parties can do is hope that they do not have to govern during a recession. The sweet spot for political parties is to watch their chief opponent self-destruct during one and then win power just as the recession is ending. Then they can take credit for the recovery. Jean Chretien managed to get re-elected twice doing just that.

That is why I urge caution from Liberals in taking power by coalition. Do not believe your own hype. Jean Chretien and Paul Martin did not pull Canada out of a recession in the 1990s. It was already over when they took power. All they did was exploit the recovery to the advantage of Canada and the Liberal Party.

Circumstances are much different now. In a year or so whichever political party that is in government will be down substantially in the polls. That situation will be irreversible as the vicseral fear Canadians will feel as their jobs, pensions, and wealth disappear will turn into anger at the government that has failed to prevent it. If it is all the same to you I would prefer to see the Conservatives in that situation than the Liberals. If it were the Liberals they could potentially suffer the same fate as the PC Party of Canada in 1993 considering their already weakened state. And if you think I might be overstating that I would remind you that no one expected the virtual destruction of that party in 1993. Even in the days leading up to election day in 1993 commentators and pundits were saying the Conservatives would lose but retain Official Opposition status.

The Liberals should keep the idea of a coalition on the table and they should be serious about forming one if the Conservatives force their hand. However, they should be working over the next week to prevent it. I would suggest they put out feelers to the Conservatives to gain concessions from them in the economic update. The consession they should demand are early investments in infrastructure. The money is already there so just bring it forward. Of course, that infusion of cash in the economy will barely make a dent in the recession but infrastructure renewal is long overdue and squeezing this concession from the Conservatives is a way to finally begin that process while allowing the Liberals to claim victory. And I might add leaving the Conservatives on the hook for wearing the recession.

To those Liberals giddy with the idea of taking power in the coming weeks and to those Liberals who would think my suggestion would be a sign of weakness stop thinking in terms of days or weeks and begin thinking in terms of months. By this time next year the events of this week and next will be wiped out from the collective memory, washed away in the flood of bad economic news that will be flowing over the planet at that time.

The Liberals need to be careful not to overplay their hand

Stephen Harper is in full retreat. The Liberals and the other opposition parties have effectively taken his gambit to strip them of public funds and turned it against him. For whatever reason, Mr. Harper was not prepared for the fallout when he should have known it was coming and had a communications strategy ready. The one I mentioned last night in my blog would have been an obvious one. Most people would be able to understand the concept of everybody making economic sacrifices during hard economic times more than they would understand that eliminating government funded party financing would be a threat to democracy. However, that was not forthcoming and Mr. Harper is now paying the price.

What the Liberals have to be careful of now is not to take things too far. Although, all the events of yesterday and today are causing quite the stir on the various blogs it is probably just confusing and confounding ordinary Canadians. So, far all of the negative impacts have landed squarely on the shoulders of the Conservatives but that could change if the Liberals get too aggressive over the next few days in their quest to further punish the Conservatives. They need to balance that aggressiveness with some conciliatory actions. They need to be certain they do not fall into the same self-inflicted trap that the Conservatives find themselves in by being overly partisan.

It would appear that Stephen Harper has taken the party financing provisions out of the economic update so the immediate cause for replacing the Conservatives has been eliminated. Now that leaves the economic update itself and that is what the Liberals should be focusing on in the coming week. They made their point with Mr. Chretien and Mr. Broadbent talking to each other but if those talks continue to be prominent in the coming week they leave the Conservatives the opportunity to reverse the trap and accuse the Liberals and NDP of plotting to overthrow the elected government, for cheap partisan reasons, during an economic downturn. Of course it would be an extreme case of the pot accusing the kettle but we all know that the Conservatives are not above that kind of attack and that they can be very effective when they are making those kinds of attacks. Indeed, if they governed as well as they attacked their political opponents Mr. Harper would have no worries about a non-confidence motion at the moment.

Put the coalition talks on the backburner or at least put them firmly in the backroom. By all means keep the possibility out there but in the context of forcing the Conservatives to actually give into the demands of the opposition for some sort of stimulus in the economic update.

When that happens, and it will if the Liberals and the NDP play the next week well, declare victory and move on from any talk about coalitions governments.

I maintain that the Liberals want no part of government just yet. A weak and unstable coalition is not what they want to be leading just as the biggest recession in at least two decades is descending upon us. No matter what they do they will be blamed for all of the negative economic fallout of that recession if they are the government. Let the Conservatives wear that.

Fortunately, Mr. Harper appears to be desparate to hang onto power so use that fact to squeeze out as much from him as you can, declare victory when he does, keep hammering this newly weakened government until Stephen Harper is just an oily spot on the House of Commons floor and then bring his government down.

The Big Blue Machine, ooooooooh scary

Judging by the reaction from the Liberal blogsphere today regarding the proposal to cut off all public funds to political parties you would think that Mr. Harper has declared martial law or something else equally heinous. We are hearing accusations of threats to democracy and labels like Vlad Harper being thrown around.

What silliness.

MONEY DOES NOT WIN ELECTIONS.

If you do not believe me just ask Mr. Turner, Ms. Campbell, Mr. Eves, Mr. Martin and Mr. Peterson. They all lost despite heading big, rich and slick political organizations while facing poorer and less organized opponents. For that matter you can ask Mr. Harper since he had the most money and the best organization in the last election and it only bought him an extra 20 seats and a second minority government.

What Liberals are forgetting are the voters. They will eventually grow tired of the current government regardless of how much money they have or how organized they are.

Indeed, that could already be happening. Mr. Harper is not very well liked by Canadians to begin with and he will be fighting his fourth election during the next go round. Not even Jean Chretien risked a fourth election. He will be leading a party that is not well trusted and that has very thin talent. And he will be leading this government during what is shaping up to be a recession that is at least worse than the one in the mid-80s (which helped lead to John Turner's loss) and perhaps as bad or worse than the recession of the early 90s (which helped lead to the demise of the Federal PC Party and directly destroyed the Rae government in Ontario).

So what should the Liberals do about the proposal to cut off public funding for political parties?

Well in the immortal words of James Carvell: "IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID"

The Liberals should ignore the proposal and they should be facilitating voter fatigue towards the Conservatives by focusing on

• the fact the Conservatives have brought the country's finances into deficit BEFORE implementing a stimulus package. Yes, yes I know the economic update states we will have a slim surplus this year but this is Jim Flaherty. He cannot be trusted on this issue.
• the fact the Conservatives are sitting on their hands with regard to providing Canadians with assistance during this economic downturn. Not that a stimulus package will do anything to prevent a recession or end one and any benefits it might have, if any, will be fleeting. However, this is politics, not reality, so the Liberals should be hammering the Conservatives on this.
• hammering the government every time there is a bit a bad economic news, no matter how minor. Yes, yes, some would say that the Liberals are trying to take advantage of the bad economic times for political advantage. To which I say, well duh! And your point is what exactly?
• demanding what the Conservatives intend to do about the economy. Demanding answers and a plan. Accusing the Conservatives of hiding things from Canadians when they refuse to provide that plan.
• demanding what the Conservatives are going to do to keep any deficit at least manageable. Demanding what the Conservatives plan to cut and accusing the Conservatives of hiding things from Canadians when they refuse to answer.
• improving their fundraising. It has been a problem for awhile and now they have an added incentive to make it better. Indeed, they say that necessity is the mother of invention so I would say they now have a great need. So invent!!!

I am certain that Stephen Harper would like nothing better than the spectacle of the Liberals and the other opposition parties bleating about losing government funding during an economic downturn. It would serve nicely to change the channel from the above and give him the ability to claim the high road.

The Liberals should not vote to bring down this government and they should not seriously suggest they want to lead a coalition government. Not with that coalition in this economic climate. Force Stephen Harper to wear this recession and to come up with ways to help Canadians through it. I can tell you that helping Canadians in tough economic times in not in his DNA. He would very much prefer to let this shake itself out with the minimum of input from his government. That lack of conviction will lead to him doing things that are not helpful, maybe even harmful, and wind up having his government painted as being incompetent during an economic crisis. (The kiss of death for any government, even ones with lots of money). In fact, we are already seeing this approach.

When this economic update comes up for debate the Liberals should propose some amendments. I have noticed alot a good ideas but I would reject any thought of trying to keep any public funds going to the parties, even if it were being phased out over time. I really like the idea of an amendment to bring the spending limit down. That would really put the Conservatives into a bit of a bind. To risk bringing down their own government over an issue like that would not be a good idea.

When it comes to any confidence votes regarding this update the Liberals should make certain that 15 of their members have urgent business elsewhere. That will allow them to vote against the measure without bringing down the government. That includes any amendments that they propose. That is the silver lining of the Conservatives being only a dozen seats short of a majority. The goal of the Liberals in the short term should be to keep the Conservatives on the hook for the economy. Allow them to stew in the cauldron for awhile and allow the full weight of their economic incompetence to set in with Canadians.

Of course many in the Liberal blogsphere will howl with outrage at that suggestion bringing up the past Liberal practice of abstaining during the last session of Parliament. To which I say the political dynamic has changed. To claim that the Liberal abstentions had anything but a minimal impact on the last election is dubious to say the least but such a claim in the current economic climate is nonsensical. Very few Canadians pay close attention to the minute workings of the parties in the House of Commons when the economy is booming they will pay even less during a recession.

The Liberals need to keep their eyes firmly on the big picture. They cannot allow themselves to be distracted by the Conservatives. Even this early the Conservatives are demonstrating that they care more about symbolic gestures and lofty rhetoric. This will only work for so long and then they will have to actually make real decisions and take real actions, all of which will piss off a great many voters, regardless of what they are.

So Mr. Obama won, what now?

I find that I am unable to get really excited about the victory of President-Elect Obama last night. On an intellectual level I can appreciate the historic nature of his victory. He is after all the first African-American to ever be elected president of the United States. On an emotional level, nothing.

Part of that is because I really do not care about the skin colour of anybody. As far as I am concerned it is no more or less important than their hair colour. For me, what is important is the person not their appearance.

Another part of that is because I have serious reservations about Mr. Obama. It should be noted that I had more serious reservations about Mr. McCain so I am satisfied with the results of last night's election, but I cannot say I am ecstatic.

I have reservations because people have put Mr. Obama on a pedestal and have almost elevated him to godhood. Look at the response of folks on TV and even most of Liblogs today and you see a pattern of belief that Mr. Obama is going to transform the United States and its government. Talk about unreasonable expectations. Any first year political science student can tell you that government institutions and their bureaucracies can outlast any politician regardless of their personal popularity and drive for change. The byzantine nature of the US Federal government virtually guarantees that Mr. Obama will be unable to substantially change the US government so in turn he will be unable to substantially change US society. I wonder how people are going to react when that reality finally sinks in? In all likelyhood it will not be positive and many will blame President Obama for that failure.

Added to this is the fact that Mr. Obama has inherited a country and an economy that has been profoundly broken by George Bush and his gang. It took the Bush Administration 8 years to make this happen. It is the height of wishful thinking and arrogance to believe that Mr. Obama will be able to fix that damage in less time. We all know it takes longer to build something than to tear it down.

Finally, Ms. Clinton and Mr. McCain both claimed that Mr. Obama lacked the experience to be president. Although they made these statements for partisan reasons they were not totally wrong. If you look at Mr. Obama's experience both in and out of government it is not much better than George W. Bush's when he won the White House the first time. For me it is still an open question as to whether Mr. Obama can grow into the job while getting started on solving the many issues that need to be solved and meeting all of those astronomical expectations people have for him. I hope he can but I do have doubts.

From the Canadian government point of view it was funny to see all of those government cabinet ministers falling over themselves today trying to snuggle up to the new President-Elect.

They probably know that their job just became a little more difficult. For one thing Mr. Obama's style and message are ananthema to that of the current Canadian government. Unfortunately for Mr. Harper and his government both are widely popular in Canada and the government cannot be liking the idea of Canadian comparing and contrasting the Harper government and the Obama administration. Mr. Obama will probably come down to earth eventually but probably not before Mr. Harper has to face the electorate once again. He really should have won that majority. Oh well, sucks to be him.

As well, no one should believe for a second that Mr. Obama or at least some of his advisors have forgotten about the blantant interference of the Harper government in the Democratic primaries last year. That interference almost derailed Mr. Obama's race for the White House before it really got started. That could very well manifest itself in Mr. Obama avoiding Canada for awhile and if that does happen I wonder how long it will be before someone reminds Canadians of Naftagate as a possible reason for that situation.

Then again, it could be interesting to see who President Obama appoints as ambassador to Canada. Mr. Bush had no problem appointing men who had no problem meddling in Canadian politics. The Bush representatives were largely ignored because they were, well, Bush appointments. Considering the high regard Mr. Obama is held in Canada any statements or actions of his representatives would probably be better received even if they are meddlesome.

The election of Barack Obama as President of the United States is a truly historic occasion. However, it is still an open question as to whether he will be a successful president or a dud. As well, his election could have a profound impact on the Canadian political scene, particularly if Mr. Obama or one of his advisors decide to let our current government know that they did not appreciate their actions a few months ago.

Dion and the Pope

Stephane Dion is invited to meet with the Pope while he is vacationing in Venice .

The Canadian MSM watches the semi-private audience.

The Pope asks Dion to join him on a Gondola ride through the canals of Venice .They're admiring the sights and agreeing on moral issues when, all of a sudden, the Pope's hat (zucchetto) blows off his head and out into the water.

The gondolier starts to reach for the Pontiff's cap with his pole, but this move threatens to overturn the floating craft.

Dion waves the tour guide off, saying, 'Wait, wait. I'll take care of this. Don't worry.'

He steps off the gondola onto the surface of the water and walks out to the Pope's hat, bends over and picks it up. He walks back across the water to the gondola and steps aboard.

He hands the hat to the Pope amid stunned silence.

The next morning the headline on, CTV News , CBC News, The Globe and Mail, Global News, and the National Post is:

Dion Can't Swim !

Conservatives, stupidly arrogant or arrogantly stupid?

When I read this last night I had a chuckle followed by a moment where by stomach sank.

The ignorance of the sentiments expressed in this story was breathtaking.

The Conservatives should not be worried about a deficit and trying to place the blame for that deficit on the Opposition. The situation they find themselves in is much more serious for them and for the country.

The world in entering the first real global recession since the late 1980s. All of the developed world is being hammered by the continuing fallout of the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the United States. This is resulting in most of the emerging economic powers suffering retreats in their economic output as their markets dry up. China is projected to have growth slow by more than 3 percentage points. Brazil and Mexico had to recently spend billions of their foreign currency reserves to prop up their currencies.

All of the developed world economies are moving as if emersed in slowly hardening concrete as a result of the credit crunch. The bailouts we have seen in the past month have only prevented a total collapse of the world credit market. They have not resolved the problem. That is going to take time. The Japanese went through this beginning in the mid-90s and it took them nearly a decade to recover.

Here in Canada, Central Canada has been in a recession for about a year but the Canadian economy has been buoyed by the energy and commodity industries. Now that is beginning to change. Oil and gas prices have tanked and the floor has not been reached on them yet. The same can be said of the commodity industries with the result of a sharp decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar. Normally, this would be good news for Central Canada except for the fact that the credit crunch prevents them making the investments they need to take advantage of that situation. And to make things worse the falling dollar will cause an increase in inflation restricting the room to maneuver for the Bank of Canada.

So, Canada is heading towards a recession of at least the proportions of the early 1990s and maybe even of the proportion of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

That is why I had a chuckle at that story. Deficits are the least of the problems the Conservatives will be facing. Recessions like those of the 70s through the early 90s take on a life of their own and they are government killers. Bob Rae, George Bush senior, John Major, and Jimmy Clark can all attest to that. During those kinds of recessions the vicious cycle develops where consumer confidence goes so low that they stop spending, which causes the recession to deepen, which causes consumer confidence to fall even further, leading to less spending and so on. This situation also leads to anger and angst and the desire of governments to do something, anything, to bring the country out of this spiral.

Of course, there is very little governments can do but that argument never works when this cycle takes hold. As well, the situation leads to alot less tolerance of the partisan antics we have been seeing the last few years. When things are good citizens ignore the government. When they are bad they look to government for solutions and they do not tolerate games.

As well, when times are bad voters in this country become more left-leaning, which should have an interesting effect on the political dynamics in this country, both at a macro and micro level.

The reason why my stomach sank is the sentiments expressed in that story indicate that the Conservatives still do not realize the gravity of the situation. I believed Mr. Harper's sanguine reaction to the economic crash last month was just him playing politics. However, that story last night seems to indicate that the Conservatives still have not fully grasped what is heading our way.

That is bad news for Canadians.

The Conservatives and Canadians find themselves in the unhappy situation of heading towards a recession that could rival some of the worst recessions of the last quarter of the last century.

For the Conservatives that means they could find themselves in a no-win situation, where they are constantly trying to put out the giant economic forest fire with a garden hose, where their
political agenda is totally hijacked by the economic fire and where Canadians angry at their lack of results in turning the economy around leads them to desert the Conservatives in droves at the ballot box.

For Canadians, we could be heading towards another recession where unemployment increases to double digits again, and where whole swaths of our society are decimated by a long and deep recession and its aftermath.

Sometimes, I do not know whether I should laugh or cry.

I am done with the Liberal Party of Canada

I always thought Liberals were different. I always thought they were smart enough to avoid falling into the same trap the political right did after the virtual destruction of the Progressive Conservative Party in 1993. I always thought they were smart enough not to need to go through that kind of experience to renew itself and make itself stronger.

I was wrong.

It is now obvious that the Liberal Party of Canada is going to have to spend some time in the political wilderness in order to shed itself of the egotistical, power hungry dickheads and selfish yahoos that are always attracted to a political party that spends a long time in power. You see, once many of these folks realize that they will not even get close to the levers of power for a very long time they abandon the party, leaving the ones that truely care about the country and the Party behind to actually build something.

The resignation of Mr. Dion has just made all of that a virtual certainty. There is no way any new leader is going to be able to win an election in 12-18 months. He and the Party will lack the money, organization, policies and personal appeal amongst Canadians to win the next election. As well, although the next leader will probably pick up a few extra seats, which will be spun as a victory of sorts, Mr. Harper will pick up more and achieve his majority government. A third times the charm situation.

I want no part of that for the simple reason that it could be avoided. I will let you read my previous posts to see why I believe that.

Many have stated that Mr. Dion was at the helm for a very bad defeat for the Liberals. I am certain that more than a few former Progressive Conservatives are wondering what the hell they are talking about. As well, what the Liberals lack in quantity they more than make up for in quality. Imagine if all of that talent could be harnessed to launch an all out, coordinated attack on the one-man government of the Conservatives during what is looking more and more like one of the worst economic slowdowns in a century. Eventually, they would reduce Mr. Harper to a quivering oil spot on the floor of the House of Commons. Instead, much of that talent is going to be distracted from Mr. Harper and trying to win the leadership of the Liberal Party letting Mr. Harper off the hook.

I can now see the scenario where the Conservatives will be in power for a very long time. They are going to win the next election and they have a very good chance of winning a majority. By the time that term is up the worst of the recession will be over and it is conceivable that grateful Canadians will give them another majority for bringing them through that recession. The end result is it is conceivable that the Conservative term in office could eclipse the last Liberal term in office.

And for those who thing I may be overstating it I would suggest that the folks on the right probably did not expect the Liberals to remain in power for nine more very long years after the 1997 election. After all, the Liberals had their 20 seat majority reduced to a 5 seat majority and the political right seemed to be on the ascendency. They were really shocked in 2000 when Jean Chretien increased his majority by 12 seats.

I am still a liberal but I want no part of a Liberal Party that is under the thumb of folks who care more about their own ambitions than the country. I may return to helping the Liberal Party after the Party finally sheds these bozos but then again by then Stephen Harper will be tearing down what Liberals spent more than a century building and it will be the Liberal Party that will let them do it because they could not get their shit together. It is a toss-up as to whether I will be able to forgive the Liberals for letting that happen.

Dion's leadership has been endorsed.

If there is anything that should give some Liberals pause in their hurrying Mr. Dion out the door it is this.

Sorry folks but this guys word carries only slightly more weight with me than that of Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton.

I am certain that a great many grassroots Liberals would agree with me.

Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier will be back

I am going to take my own advice and focus on the Conservatives for a moment.

I found it very strange that one of the first things Mr. Harper talked about in his post election new conference was Senate reform. He went so far as to threaten to stack the Senate to facilitate said reform.

My question was why would he begin his second term talking about an issue that is a non-starter east of the Ontario/Manitoba border?

Then I remembered Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier. Mr. Harper wants them back. Mr. Fortier could not get into the House the usual way and Mr. Emmerson does not like the hurly-burly of the House. Using Senate reform as political cover to bring them back is something Mr. Harper would not hesitate in doing. As well, making them part of a larger group serves to provide more political cover. Such a strategy is cynical as hell but that is pretty much the short definition of Mr. Harper's approach to politics.

Do not be surprised if Mr. Harper announces a bunch of Senate appointments just before he announces his cabinet and do not be surprised if a couple of them are announced as being members of both institutions.

There is no Liberal saviour

I have noticed today, as leadership speculation runs rampant, that all sorts of names are being put forward as possible replacements for Mr. Dion if he decides to leave or if he is pushed.

Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley, Ms. Arbour, Santa Claus, just to name a few.

Of course, many are hoping that any one of these folks will be able to turn around Liberal fortunes. Indeed, some are actually saying that they will.

To demonstrate the fallacy in that I asked my wife if she knew any of the names being bandied about. Unlike me she has no interest in politics. She did not become engaged in the last election until the debates, when she watched about 30 minutes of them. Then on election day, she peppered me with a bunch of questions about all of the parties just before we went to the voting station. In short I would say she is a reasonably typical voter.

So, when I asked her about Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley and Ms. Arbour she had no idea who I was talking about. She did not even know the names and she would not be able to pick their faces out of a line-up.

When I mentioned Mr. Rae she said: "Ohh, Rae days."

Not exactly what Liberals would hope for from an "ordinary voter". The simple fact folks is none of the names being bandied about are well known to Canadians, except for Mr. Rae and that might be a mixed blessing. Another simple fact is Canadians will not vote for someone they do not know. This last election proved that. Canadians decided to give Mr. Harper another mandate despite the fact that Canadians do not really like him. They might not like him but they do know him. Mr. Dion was not well known except for the caricature built by the Conservatives and a complicit media and the results speak for themselves.

Stephane Dion is now known to Canadians. Their opinion of him is probably not the best but opinions change over time. Dalton McGuinty was written off after being crushed by Mike Harris. Stephen Harper was written off after losing the 2004 election.

Stephane Dion has the qualities to be a good PM and the election campaign demonstrated that he was growing into the job. Forcing him out will solve nothing. Of course, if he decides to leave then the Liberals will have to respect his wishes, but if he decides to stay then Liberals should accept that and prepare for the next election.

I know many disagree with that assessment. I have no problem with that. If you believe Mr. Dion is not the right man for the job then I respect that. If you want to replace him because you believe another person will be the "saviour" of the Liberal Party then I hope that you are willing to share whatever up you are smoking.

Make no mistake, if the Liberals replace their leader they will go into the next election with a little known leader, who will be leading a party that is broke and woefully unprepared to fight an election. So, I hope all of those who want to replace Mr. Dion are prepared for another election loss in a few months and a possible four years in the political wilderness as Canadians may just decide to give Mr. Harper his majority next time.

With Mr. Dion at the helm the Liberals will be lead by someone who is known and they should have the financial resources to fight a decent campaign. As well, the May policy convention would actually perform its function providing the Liberals with grassroot inspired policies that might motivate Liberals to come out and vote next time.

I have no idea how Mr. Dion would do a second time around. However, I do know that having a known leader, some policies developed by the grassroots and adequate financial resources is better than the opposite when going into an election.

I hope Mr. Dion is thinking with a clear head when he is considering his future but I also hope Liberals begin thinking with a clear head they are considering his future too.

The Liberals: Focus on the Conservatives

Much has been said about the loss the Liberals suffered last night and many have tried to figure out why.

The primary reason is simple. The Conservatives enjoyed the ballot box bonus that incumbents often enjoy. It happened to the Liberals in both 2004, when they jumped from 33% on the Sunday before E-day to 36% on E-day. It also happened in 2006 when it allowed them to salvage a hundred seats. It should come as no surprise that the Conservatives were the ones to enjoy this incumbent bonus this time. This bonus always happens with the desire for change amongst the electorate is low and by most accounts it was exactly that this time, which those pollsters who actually asked the question putting it at under 50%.

To blame Mr. Dion is downright silly. In retrospect that little surge by the Liberals in the last week had a negative side effect. It actually made Liberals believe they could win or at least keep it close.

That is non-sensical really. With no real strong desire for change it was predictable that the Liberals would lose.

So what now?

As the title says, focus on the Conservatives. They are going to be in tough this time. They are going to have to make some really tough decisions on how to handle the coming economic troubles that will not make anybody happy. As well, there is a very good chance that their nostrums for the economy will come straight from their ideology instead of sound analyses of the various problems, which could make things even worse for them.

The last thing the Liberals need to be doing during that time is choosing a new leader. They should instead spend their time hammering the Conservatives and getting ready for the next election in 12-18 months.

Mr. Dion has improved a great deal since his election to the Liberal leadership. Hell there was a marked improvement just over the 5 weeks of the election campaign. His efforts contributed to stopping Mr. Harper from achieving a majority government. He did this despite having the deck stacked against him. As I have stated before the media in this election went to unprecedented lengths to give the Conservatives a pass while crucifying Mr. Dion. They did not go to those lengths in 2000 with Mr. Day, which is the last time the media essentially destroyed a leader of one of the major political parties.

It is ironic that it is these very same media that is now leading the charge to have Mr. Dion removed. What he did to deserve this from them is beyond me. However, I would think that considering what we saw from the media in the last 5 weeks that Liberals would do the exact opposite of what they suggest. They do not have the best interests of the Liberal Party at heart.

I would also remind Liberals that new leaders of political parties never win elections just months after their election to that post. It is not very hard to see Mr. Harper engineering his defeat just weeks after a new Liberal leader is chosen. I can assure you in that situation Canadians will not elect the Liberals. Canadians will not elect an Opposition Party lead by someone who has barely had enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway. So what do we do then? Do we again turf out the leader and have another leadership race.

A leadership race at this juncture will take away resources that will be needed for an election in 12-18 months and deflect attention from the troubles the Conservatives will probably be dealing with during that period. The time for the internal struggles between the various leadership camps is behind us. Liberals should be looking ahead.

Of course, that is not what is going to happen. Since the departure of Mr. Chretien the Liberal Party has had a serious case of the stupids. My guess is that case will reach terminal levels over the next weeks or months and the Party will let Mr. Harper off the hook and hamstring its chances of winning the next election by having a destructive, time consuming and expensive leadership contest. Since Mr. Harper will be receiving a free ride from the Official Opposition as a result it would not surprise me one bit to see him win the extra 10-15 seats he needs for his majority the next time around.

If the Liberals focus they have a very good shot at winning the next election. If they allow the Party to degenerate into another furball then in all likelyhood the new leader will have four years to get settled into Stornaway as he helplessly watches Stephen Harper dismantle the Canada Liberals spent a century building.

The Conservatives: The Chess Master failed

Make no mistake. The Conservative Party won last night's election in a convincing fashion.

However, they failed in achieving the primary objective of calling this election, which we all know was to win a majority government. For the second time in a row the Conservatives found themselves in the ideal position to sweep the country and they came up short. Certainly they did better than last time but they still came up short.

Now let us remind ourselves as to why they wanted a majority government.

• The economy is going into the crapper and they wanted those four or five years in order to have security during the worst of the coming recession.
• They wanted the novelty of a liberal, black US President, preaching change and liberal values to wear off before they have to face the Canadian electorate again.
• The In-and-Out Scandal has not played itself out completely. It should come to some sort of conclusion within a year. In all likelihood it will not be great news for the Conservatives. Having four of five years with which to recover from any negative impacts of that scandal would have been nice.
• The Mulroney/Schrieber Inquiry will have to go forward. With a majority government the Conservatives could have canceled it and that would have been forgotten by 2012. Now it will be occuring at the same time they will be trying to come to grips with a faltering economy.
• The Cadman Affair could come back to haunt them again.
• The Conservatives could have used a majority to squash all other Parliamentary Committee inquiries into all of the other little ethical lapses that have dogged the Conservatives.

The Conservative's second term in office will be much different than its first. They no longer have a Liberal surplus with which to buy votes and the economy is heading in the wrong direction. If it really heads into the crapper the Conservatives will wear it.

The In-and-Out Scandal has the potential to be very damaging. Perhaps fatal in the short time between now and the next election. The RCMP only executes search warrants if there is sufficient probably cause to believe a crime has been commited. Although nothing has come out yet the potential damage of Canadians seeing the Conservative Party and dozens of Conservative Party members, including sitting MPs and Cabinet Ministers, being criminally charged with violating Canada's election law could be catastrophic to the Conservatives.

Combine that with many of the other scandals that have dogged the Conservatives since last winter coming home to roost, I expect this Parliament to be nasty, brutish and short.

To make Mr. Harper's life just a little more difficult he could have some difficulty keeping his party under the tight control he prefers.

I would have to say that judging by the facial expression and subdued demeanour of Rick Anderson last night on the CBC not all Conservatives are happy with Mr. Harper's failure to win a majority. Mr. Anderson should have been bouncing off the walls since the Conservatives had just won back-to-back elections for the first time in almost two decades. Instead, he was saying that Mr. Harper would have to think upon last night's results.

Mr. Anderson and many other Conservatives know that Canadians will only give you so many kicks at the can before they decide that you are no longer worthy. They know that Canadians will eventually grow tired of Mr. Harper and his ways and they know that he may already be on borrowed time. Many Conservatives may feel the same way I felt after the 2004 election when Paul Martin only won a minority government. Although I was happy that the Liberals won the election I also knew that they would not win the next one.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next 12-18 months.

NDP: They just don't get it.

One of the most amusing events of last night was Mr. Layton's speech.

The NDP had just put itself into to hock up to its eyeballs. For that effort they had gained about a half dozen seats and were still relegated to fourth party status in a Parliament of four parties.

Yet, Jack Layton had this silly shit eating grin on his face.

That grin pretty much sums up the NDP. For them victory is taking just a few more seats. From that they construct this dream that they will go on to become the Official Opposition and then who knows?

I saw the same thing in 1984. That was the last time the NDP reaches such dizzying heights in the seat count and they were entralled with these delusions of grandeur. Of course 1988 brought them down to earth and then they spent most of the '90s fighting to maintain official party status.

One of the things that last night's election proved is that Canadians still believe that there are only two parties that they trust to form a national government. That is the Conservatives and the Liberals. Every few years Canadians become disenchanted with the Liberals and they begin to look for alternatives on the centre left. The NDP usually benefits from that. However, eventually, those same Canadians grow tired of the Conservatives and they go back to the one party that can replace them, the Liberal Party.

Unfortunately for the NDP, that disenchantment with the Liberals can only go so far. Last night has proven that. For the NDP to really step up to the next level they are actually going to have to re-invent their party. They are going to have to take it out of the 1960s and bring it into the 21st Century. The Conservatives and Liberals re-invent themselves all of the time, which is why they are the only two parties that Canadians trust with power. Until the NDP can accomplish the same thing they will always be the junior of junior partners in Parliament.

That grin on Mr. Layton's fact last night would seem to indicate that he will not be the one to lead the NDP reinvention.

Expect the NDP "tide" to begin receding soon, maybe even during the next election.

The Bloc Quebecois: Why do the federalist parties keep giving the Bloc chances at new life?

In 2003 the conventional wisdom was the Bloc Quebecois was on its way to extinction. It had lost its reason for being and it was widely expected that when Paul Martin took over the Liberal Party and called an election that they would be all but wiped out.

Then the sponsorship scandal happened and Quebecers became very pissed off at the Liberals. The Conservative Party was moribund in Quebec in 2004 so all of those pissed off Quebecers turned to the Bloc. They won a huge number of seats in Quebec and like yesterday they denied a sitting government a majority government.

They had been slowly fading since 2004 until this year they were again looking at being overtaken by one of the national parties. And then Stephen Harper insulted artists and suggested throwing 14 year olds in prison and the Bloc was given a new life yet again. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I believe the number of seats they won last night exceeded that which they won in 2004.

Anyway, I guess we can expect them to around for at least another two elections, unless of course either the Liberals or the Conservatives does something to again breath new life into them.