The Impact of the Biden Victory on Canadian Politics

I have read some commentary that the election of Joe Biden is bad news for Justin Trudeau because Canadians will no longer compare him to Donald Trump.  

What silliness.  Although Canadians do care what happens in the US and we tend to take sides with regard to who we would like to be President that does not translate into any real impact in Canadian politics.

I would remind these commentators that Canadians absolutely loved Barrack Obama but that did not stop them from giving Stephen Harper a majority government in 2011.  If their arguments would have carried any weight that should not have happened.

However, there may be some impact on the Conservatives.  One thing Mr. Trump did was spawn a bunch of Trump imitators and in Canada we have Conservative politicians, at the Federal and Provincial levels, following the Trump play book.  

They are doing this because they saw it worked for Mr. Trump so they believe it will work for them.  As well, they can imitate him because the world has been distracted for the last four years by the real thing in the United States so voters in Canada have not really been paying attention to his imitators.  

However, the US general election has demonstrated that using Trumpian methods are not effective.  Certainly, when he was safely ensconced in the White House he seemed untouchable but when he was finally tested in the general election he lost and lost big.  That should give his imitators in Canada pause, particularly Mr. Kenney and Mr. Ford.  Both followed the Trump playbook to get elected and continue to use it and like Mr. Trump they were successful, at first, but Mr. Trump also demonstrated that his style of politics wears down voters very quickly and accelerates the desire for change amongst the electorate.

Second, his eviction from the White House will reduce his power and influence on US politics.  He can still be a blowhard but without any access to the levers of power all he will be able to do is talk.  Without any effective way to exercise power he will fade into a voice in the wilderness, with only his most ardent supporters caring what he says, and even that will probably fade over time

So will his lesser stature cause the spotlight to shift a little bit to the actions and words of his imitators in other countries?  As the spotlight shifts from him will it focus on his imitators in Canada?  Canadians despised Mr. Trump.  Even a large number of people who identified as Conservative despised him.  Will that disdain shift to his imitators once the world breaths a sigh of relief at his departure?

Only time will tell of course.  However, if it does, even by a little bit it will put the Conservatives into a bit of a bind as they may be forced to choose between abandoning Trumpism, and the Canadian voters who like that style of politics, or continuing to following the Trump playbook and possibly alienating those who despise that style of politics.            

Could Mr. Trump's Stubbornness Help the Democrats in the Georgia Senate Runoff Elections?

It has become somewhat conventional wisdom that one of the reasons why senior Republicans in the United States are not speaking up about the stupidity of Donald Trump is they want to avoid having him work against them in the Georgia run-off elections in January.  He does not give a damn about the Republican Party so he could do just that if crossed.

However, there is another consideration.  As I stated in my last post that election will probably come down to turnout.  Which ever side can bring out their voters will win.  The problem for Republicans is the general election has demonstrated that there are more Democratic voters than Republicans.  Joe Biden won that state by more than 10,000 votes.  If Democrats decide to come out in similar numbers to the general election the Republicans will lose control of the Senate.

On the other hand, Georgia is traditionally a Red State.  If turn out were to revert to the mean the Republicans would probably win.  So, I would think that Republicans would be looking to cool off Democratic voters in that state and that is probably not happening as a result of the ongoing Trump saga.  That daily spectacle along with the Republican leadership's unwillingness to speak out against it is perfect situation for Democrats to convince their voters in Georgia that their work is not yet done so they need to come out in January like they did on November 3.

It could be that the Republican leadership miscalculated.  Yes, coming out against Mr. Trump could convince him to speak out against them in the run-off elections but it could also cool off Democratic voters in that state.  Turnout from Republicans would be down but so would the turnout from Democrats.  In that situation I believe the Republicans would probably come out on top.  However, the longer the Trump saga continues will probably motivate Democratic voters more and more.  In short, by allowing Mr. Trump to keep himself in the spotlight the Republicans are reminding Democratic voters in Georgia why then needed to vote on November 3 and it could very well convince them that they still have one more step before they can finally be rid of him.

It is in the best interest of Americans that Mr. Trump be tossed into the dustbin of history, possibly by way of a jail cell.  I would argue that it is even more important for the Republican Party to see him off so that anti-Trump sentiment can cool and not be carried over into the Georgia Senate run-off elections.

So Democrats did not make the same mistake twice

The 2016 election was all about turnout.  The simple fact is if just 100,000 additional Democratic voters would have turned out in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania the world would have been spared President Donald Trump.  Unfortunately, Democratic voters did not for a whole host of reason; their dislike of Hillary Clinton, their pining for Bernie Sanders and their complete lack of realization of the danger presented by Donald Trump despite his very open and honest presentation of it during the 2016 cycle.

The biggest question going into the 2020 election was whether Democrats would come out to vote this time around.  It turns out they did, in record numbers.  However, it also turns out that Republican voters turned out in record numbers, making the election much closer than virtually everybody (including me) thought it would be.  It turns out that Donald Trump was a very polarizing figure, motivating both his supporters and his detractors to come out in droves.  Fortunately for the world his detractors outnumber his supporters in key states.  

Now I guess we can look towards the Senatorial run-off elections in Georgia in January.  Will Democratic voters believing that they have done what needed to be done come out again?  Maybe because they are such a short time after the general election they might just do so.  Maybe Stacy Abrams will be able to work the same magic for January as she did for November 3.  However, my gut tells me they will not.  My biggest beef with progressive political parties is their lack of killer instinct when it comes to politics.  After they win something they tend to rest on their laurels, until they lose yet again when it is too late to do anything about it.

Plus there is 2022.  The mid-term are always hard on the party of the President because it is usually the protest vote that comes out while the voters aligned with the President tend to stay home.  That was the reason for the blue wave in 2018.  When the stakes were higher in 2020 that blue wave disappeared, and even receded a bit.

Joe Biden can hope the Democrats can win the two Georgia Senate seats in January so that he will have a united government for at least two years because in 2022 I would guess that the Democrats will lose both the House and the Senate, unless Democrats can somehow convince their supporters to come out in the same numbers as in 2020.  I would not hold your breath if you are hoping for that outcome.

Democrats did something that is not done very often.  They knocked off a sitting President vying for a second term.  That is an accomplishment but if they want to consolidate their victory they had better find a way to motivate and energize their voters in January 2021 and in 2022 or their happiness will be short lived.

US Election Night

In a few hours from the time I write this post (17:45 est) we will have an idea of who will be the President of the United States for the next four years.  Just as important we will have an idea of what Congress will look like for the next two years.

The polling data overwhelmingly indicates that Joe Biden has the votes necessary to take the White House.  Yes I realize that polls are not predictive and that 2016 proved that without a doubt.  However, this is not a single poll the day of the election that is saying this is Joe Biden's election to lose.  This is hundreds of polls conducted over eight months that have been saying that he leads nationally and in enough of the battleground states to get him to the 270 mark and beyond.  I tend to ignore single polls but I do not ignore polling trends.

So that just leaves the intangibles.  

Historically, Presidents tend to be re-elected for a second term.  It has been true of every president since they went to the term limits.  George Bush Sr. was an exception but he also won his first term after Ronald Reagan served for two terms.  That was a case of Americans finally wanting a change and voting to make it happen.  Jimmy Carter is the only president to win only one term.  There are some parallels between the 1980 and 2020 election but they are still different elections with extremely different electorates.

Then there are the voter suppression efforts of Republicans.  The problem with those is they would only be effective if the race was really close, that is, if the difference in the number of votes are in the Clinton/Trump neighbourhood.  The polling trend has indicated that Joe Biden has held an average 10 point lead over Mr. Trump and that his average support is around 52%.  If that is how the night shakes out then Mr. Biden will win, regardless of voter suppression or what happens in individual states.  Oh yes, if that is the margin of victory for Mr. Biden the Supreme Court will not touch the election results with a 10 foot pole. 

Turnout is another of the intangibles.  One of the reasons why Donald Trump won last time was his voters turned out and Clinton voters did not.  Turnout for early voting has been high but that does not necessarily mean that voter turnout will be higher than 2016 when all of the votes are finally counted.  What it is going to come down to is if there are more people who want to see the end of the Trump presidency than those who want to see it continue and whether they will show up at the polls.  The only good thing about this is the pool of voters for Donald Trump is probably much smaller than pool available for Joe Biden.  Mr. Trump did not even attempt to expand his base during this election.  The simple math is if voters in the Biden pool show up in greater numbers than those in the Trump pool Mr. Biden wins.  

So who will win?  I think when the dust settles Joe Biden will be the President-elect.  The polling trend indicates he has a big enough lead that the polling companies would really have had to shit the bed to miss this one, like they did in 2016.  Watching the campaign it does appear that Mr. Trump managed to accelerate the desire for change dynamic so that the majority of Americans want him gone.  Finally, I believe he has motivated those same voters to go out and actually vote.  We will see what the final vote tally is in a few days or weeks but it would not surprise me if this election breaks some voter participation records and if that is the case Mr. Biden will win.

The House of Representatives should remain a Democratic House.  Indeed, there is a chance that they could increase their majority in the House.  The election the House has been the most boring and predictable of the elections this cycle.

The Senate is a bit more interesting.  There are several Republican incumbents who appear to be in trouble.  They are being out fundraised and polling trends show that they are behind their challengers, although not by much.  Further the Democratic incumbents seem to be having an easier time of it where none seem to be in too great of danger.  The Senate election will probably be close but in the end the Democrats will probably come out on top by a couple of seats.  Although that will probably change again in 2022.

The last election surprised everybody but as is often the case people tend to look at the last election as a guide to the current election.  It is sometimes useful but it is also often wrong.  (See the 2015 Canadian Federal Election to see an example).  This is a different election with a different dynamic, namely the world dealing with a global pandemic, and the challenger to Mr. Trump is much more likeable than his 2016 challenger.  This appears to be Joe Biden's election to lose and I do not believe there will be any surprises this time.