The Carney Liberals picked up a fourth Member of Parliament from the Opposition parties, this time the NDP member from Nunavut. That brings the Liberals to 170 seats which means the Liberals only need to win two out of the three by-elections on April 13 to become a majority government, assuming no more floor crossings in either direction before that. Since two of those by-elections are taking place in Liberal strongholds the chances are pretty good for the Liberals, although not guaranteed. They are by-elections after all, which can sometimes surprise us.
Of course, this has created a great deal of angst and anger from the parties who lost Members, with them even stating that if the Liberals gain a majority as a result of floor crossings it is somehow illegitimate. They are wrong of course, Members switching sides predates Confederation so there is nothing inherently wrong with that. However, it is true that this is the first time in modern history that floor crossings could result in a minority government becoming a majority government and I have to admit that it does not completely meet the smell test. That does not mean I believe we should overturn almost 300 years of Parliamentary convention but I can understand why the Opposition parties might be much more aggrieved by the situation than for floor crossings that do not really have any impact on Party standings in the House.
As well, it does not look like any of the Members who switched parties are receiving anything in return. None appear to be destined for Cabinet and considering the success rate of floor crossers in subsequent elections is very low it can probably be concluded that their motivations were not completely self-serving.
As well, we need to look at the parties that have lost Members.
The Conservatives have become a caricature. Really, they are not a serious party anymore. Pierre Poilievre decisively won his leadership review but this has not positively impacted the CPC. As well, he went full Maple MAGA leading up to the review, which I thought was just because he needed to secure them to secure the leadership, but he has not pivoted to a message that would appeal to a broader audience. In fact, he has doubled down on the MAGA rhetoric. As well, it has been widely reported that his leadership style does not allow for much freedom for his caucus. That approach is a good one if you are seen as a winner. Stephen Harper did that when he was PM but no one in the CPC caucus cared because they were the governing party. When you are not the governing party such a tight leash on your members can alienate them, which can result in the floor crossings we have seen in recent months. In short, Pierre Poilievre should do some self-reflection but it appears he is not doing so. That could mean that more CPC MPs may decide life would be better on the Liberal benches.
The NDP is a mess. It is going through an existential crisis and it is rather irrelevant in Parliament. Encouragingly, the front runner for the leadership of the party looks like he will create an actual identity for the party. Whether Canadians will get on board with that identity remains to be seen but at least they will have one, which was something that was missing from the party since before 2015.
The NDP member who crossed the floor is from the North, which has somewhat different politics. Northerners are less partisan, tending to elect Members they believe can deliver the goods for the north. The MP from Nunavut probably concluded that she could do that much better from the government benches instead of staying with a party that does not have official party status in the House of Commons.
So if the Liberals actually do achieve a majority government by the end of next month that is going to give all of the Opposition parties time to get their shit together while virtually guaranteeing the slow erosion of the Liberals' popularity. There is no way the Liberals can fly as high as they are currently flying for the next three years. They are going to come back down to earth. If this Parliament makes it to 2029 that election is going to be very interesting and I would bet that it could be a change election. So there might be a silver lining to these floor crossings for the Opposition parties. We will see.
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