The 2025 Federal election is off and running. So who is going to win?
Usually I feel comfortable answering that question but this time it is a tossup.
On the one hand, you have a governing party that has been such going on 10 years. Historical voting patterns would indicate that they really have very little chance of winning.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has upended politics almost everywhere, including Canada. His tariffs and his threats have totally changed the political dynamic in this country. Justin Trudeau, secure in the knowledge that he was going to be leaving public service, took the gloves off and challenged Donald Trump at every opportunity. His actions and demeanour during those first few weeks of Donald Trump's term gave upset Canadians something to rally around. Mark Carney is benefited from that right now. We will have to see if he can take advantage of it.
Helping him is the fact Pierre Poilievre seems not to have noticed the political dynamic has changed. He is still running the same campaign that he has been running since he won the leadership of the CPC three years ago. That might have worked when our relationship with the US was calm and uneventful and it could still be working is we were dealing with a President Harris but it does not currently look to be working with President Trump.
As well, this change in dynamic has resulted in things that were not very important a few months ago becoming important, namely probable Indian government interference in his election as leader of the CPC and his refusal to get a security clearance. A few months ago these were only important to those living in the Ottawa bubble but with Canadians being more fearful for our sovereignty the idea of foreign interference in our politics is taking on a greater significance outside of that bubble. Add to this the silliness of Danielle Smith talking to American alt-right commentators, in ways that make it look like her and Mr. Poilievre might not be so against Trump's threats to our sovereignty, is not helping the Conservative electoral fortunes. BTW, watching Ms. Smith just further demonstrates that you could dress a rock in Conservative clothing in that province and they would vote for it. The utter extent of her political tone deafness proves to me that if she would have tried to win an election in any other province of this country she would have lost big.
So three days into the campaign the media polls are showing the Liberals are in a comfortable lead, with seat counts anywhere from 180 to over 200 seats being in play. I do not believe any media poll but it should be noted that the Liberals are looking comfortable while the Conservatives are looking increasingly uncomfortable. I believe that indicates that their data analytics teams are showing the media polls are not totally out to lunch.
So I would say the the early advantage goes to the Liberals. However, the two dynamics that could decide this election is the desire for change from the Liberals after 10 years and the fear of Donald Trump. If the first one prevails on April 28 then the Conservatives will win. If the second one prevails then the Liberals are best placed to take advantage of that and they will probably win.
Please do not ask me which dynamic will prevail in the end.
1 comment:
Carney did well calling an early election. Doug Ford used the Trump scares and it worked well for him. I think that the Liberals will likely win (and like you, I don't like to comment too solidly on possible outcomes) because the short time frame doesn't give Poilievre enough time to create a new persona, find a new theme, or alter the hate/fear mentality of his base enough to play anything else. Also, Trump is delivering a steady flow of new shockers to keep his base entertained and opponents so distracted by new horrors they can't deal with them all. There's his upcoming April 2 freedom day he keeps going on about, then there's the April 20 possibility of him trying to assert some form of martial law. Insane stuff that will keep Canadians favouring unity and resistance to Trump over Poilievre's vague, ill-worded, tone deaf promises on the economy. I love the bit about taxes being a punishment for hard work. My take, anyway and I really hope I'm right. This is a very different climate, a dangerous one which is why I don't think the historical patterns will make much difference. History has taken a detour. Cheers!
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