What will be the Ballot Question?

For every election political commentators always ask what will be the ballot question for voters come election day.

They then assert all sorts of guesses; taxes, the environment, housing prices, social issues, you name it. 

They are all wrong. For every election of the last 50 years the ballot question has been "Do I want to change the government?". The one exception was the 1988 election when the ballot question was about whether Canadians wanted to ratify the Free Trade Agreement between the US and Canada. The answer was no but the no votes were split between the Liberals and the NDP and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada won. Their decision to proceed with the ratification despite a sizable majority of Canadians being against it was a big contributing factor to the eventual demise of the PCPC. 

This election was shaping up to be another election about whether Canadians wanted to change governments but Donald Trump threw a big wrench into that. Now it is looking more like the 1988 election because he has managed to make all about him and how the next Canadian government is going to handle him. That puts the Conservatives into a bit of a bind at several levels.

First, it cannot be denied that there is a certain affinity between the CPC and Donald Trump. They have shared political advisors, more than a few prominent Conservatives have been seen wearing MAGA hats and entertaining or being entertained by MAGA influencers. That creates serious questions amongst many Canadians of whether a CPC government can be trusted to look out for Canadian interests in its dealings with the Trump administration. Speaking to my Conservative neighbour about just that topic it would appear that many do not believe they will, which would explain why he has a Liberal sign on his lawn this time. Maybe the softer tone by Trump administration may mitigate this but I would not count on it. Regardless of his new tone he will be in the news every day for the remainder of the election campaign and that will not make the Conservatives' Donald Trump problem go away.

Donald Trump has reduced the desire for change in the country. Before his reelection there appeared to be some desire for change. I am not certain how intense it was. It is anecdotal evidence at best but I do know that while most of my Conservative family members did not like Justin Trudeau they also believed that Pierre Poilievre was an asshole. They absolutely hated the Trucker Convoy of a few years ago. They saw it as an insurrection and they are savvy enough to realize that Mr. Poilievre had a hand in it. (Me reminding them of that helped). So that desire for change was always soft. I do not trust polls that much but I will say that before Donald Trump the polls were saying that the desire for change was around 60% and that has since fallen to around 55%. If it stays that way for the remainder of the election campaign then the Liberals will win. If 40 to 45% of the electorate decide not to change the government that would probably result in a Liberal majority government because the remainder would be split between five other parties. For context during the last change election in 2015, pollster were indicating that the desire for change had hit the 70% mark just a few days before election day.

The Conservatives have another problem. They have made politics personal. In 2004 and 2006 they had the Sponsorship Scandal to hammer the Liberals with. However, once they gained power they stopped talking about Liberal policies and started targeting the leader of the party. They targeted Mr. Dion, Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Trudeau. In all three cases it took years to make Canadians dislike the Liberal leaders, including 10 years for Mr. Trudeau. They have a few short weeks to do the same thing to Mark Carney. The result is if there was a desire for change it was a desire for a change in PM, which has taken place. They essentially ignored the Liberal Party and what it was doing so any desire for change does not seem to be directed at the Liberal government per se.

So, the answer to my question is still going to be whether Canadians want to change the government. Right now I would say the answer is an emphatic no. That could change in the next few weeks. However, we will probably need to be seeing signs of it in the next week to 10 days. Otherwise, I would guess that the results of the election on April 28 will be a Liberal government.