Polling Correction

The alternative title for this post could also be: I told you so.

The latest media polls are indicating that the Conservatives and the Liberals are essentially tied, with at least one poll indicating that the Liberals have taken a slim lead. This should surprise no one.

The polls indicating that the Conservatives were up by 20 points were never credible and they were always going to change in favour of the Liberals. We know this because minority governments that find themselves down by 20 points do not continue to govern for over a year after the polls say as much. At no time during the last 18 months has there ever been a credible threat to the Liberals in the House of Commons.

Many are saying that the reason for the change in the polls is the resignation of Justin Trudeau, the threatening stupidity of Donald Trump and the rise of Mark Carney. This is not completely true. If Justin Trudeau had not resigned the polls would be doing the exact same thing they are doing now. The only difference is the stupidity of Donald Trump has caused the change to be more rapid than it would have normally. 

Justin Trudeau was not an unpopular as the pollster stated and Pierre Poilievre is still a politician with all of the charisma of an angry turnip with absolutely no political instincts or acumen. When an election finally seemed imminent, which it did just before the New Year, the pollsters had to engineer the polling correction to maintain their credibility. If they would have been as far off as they would have been they would have lost all credibility, which would have impacted their paying business lines.

As well, as I stated a year ago the convergence of the polls has caused the "collapse" of Conservative support to become a big story. Even Conservative friendly media outlets have been commenting on it, although their columnists have been trying to spin it as positively as possible. This kind of narrative is not good for the Conservatives if they really do want to trigger an election this spring. 

A word of caution though. The Liberals are in year 10 of being in power. Historical voting patterns indicate that governments are operating on borrowed time after year 8. The Liberals are going to have their work cut out for them and they could very well lose, despite the recent good news. 

Polls are useless and latest ones are no different in that regard. However, the media love them to spin narratives and the latest one should worry the Conservatives.