So it would appear that we will be going to the polls on September 20 or thereabouts. Then again, maybe the PM's visit to the GG is for the purpose of having some tea and a visit with our new Governor General. It would be a hoot if that were the case. (It's not)
Any election is the Liberals' to lose. They have been in power for about six years, which in normal times is usually when voter fatigue with a government begins to set in. However, these are not normal times. All of us have been going through a once in a century health emergency and we are still going through it. However, many are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel and one of the big reasons for that is the federal government's handling of the pandemic. Health wise the federal government has secured enough vaccines to allow everybody over the age of 12 to be fully vaccinated. Economically, many Canadians still have their homes, businesses and livelihoods as a result of the economic supports the federal government has been providing Canadians during the pandemic. The result is the federal Liberals have built up a great deal of goodwill amongst Canadians, particularly among the non-aligned Canadians, who happen to be the voters who decide elections. In the end, if the Liberals can run a tight disciplined campaign like they did in 2015 and 2019 they should win at least another strong minority with a good chance of winning a majority government.
There has been increasing indications that the Conservatives could be fracturing. Just looking at the public polls you see some estimates with the Conservatives down to under 50% in Alberta when they are generally in the 65% range. As well, in Ontario their estimates have them below 30% while the Liberals are above 40%. Those are remarkable results although I always say we should take all public polls with a truckload of salt. However, it these numbers turn out to be true then we could see a 1993 scenario where the CPC fractures into multiple parties.
The one advantage that this gives the Conservatives is really low expectations and expect the media to work that angle hard during the election. We need to remember that the National Post took an active role in creating a unified conservative party in this country after the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada shattered in 1993. They and the rest of the media in this country will be working to make certain that the current version stays united after this one.
As a result, the media will be pushing the narrative that Mr. O'Toole and the Conservatives are beating expectations at every opportunity. If there is an uptick in the Conservatives' and/or Mr. O'Toole's polling numbers they will wax poetically on his political prowess and acumen. The pollsters will be very helpful in this by publishing polls showing those upticks. It is a foregone conclusion that the media will name Mr. O'Toole the winner of the English debate. Indeed, I would even hazard a guess that some commentators have already written the columns, only waiting for the debate to add some detail. The objective of all of this is to convince Conservative voters that the CPC has a shot at winning so as to convince those that might stray to other conservative parties to stick with the CPC. I believe the next few weeks will be a giant "save the furniture" operation by conservatives in this country.
Realistically, I believe that Conservatives have pretty much written off any idea that they will come out on top. They just want to make certain that they will have a united Conservative Party ready to go for the election after this one. Then again, if there are any really strategically minded conservatives left they should hope for the Liberals to win a nice comfortable majority government, with a united CPC in opposition, so that the CPC can use the four years to do what Andrew Scheer utterly failed to do, renew the Party.
All of this is bad news for the NDP. The media will be focused on the Liberals and the Conservatives. They will be looking for any gaffe by the Liberals and any sign of life by the Conservatives. The NDP will be virtually ignored and they will have the added injury of the media efforts to pump up the Conservative tires convincing some voters who may be considering voting NDP to stick to the Liberals to prevent a Conservative government.
As usual the Bloc will be the wild card in this election. They denied the Liberals a majority government in 2019 and if the Liberals are returned with a minority this time it will be because of the Bloc. Quebecers are extremely fickle voters so you never know which way they will jump. However, they were beneficiaries of the Liberal government efforts for the past 18 months, there is no controversial Quebec government Bill that could become an election issue and the Bloc leader is no longer an unknown quantity. The Bloc hit its traditional high water mark in 2019 so it has nowhere else to go but down this time. My only prediction for the Bloc is the English media will determine that the Bloc will win the French debate. Again, the columns are probably already written.
Of course, elections are crap shoots so we cannot discount the notion of an upset. Politics in this country is usually not that exciting but we are living in abnormal times so anything is possible. I do not foresee such an upset but we will have to wait until all of the votes are counted to be certain.
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