Elections do not occur in a vacuum

On the day the election was called in 2015 I wrote on this blog that the Liberals would win a majority government.

That was not wishful thinking or bravado. That was just me looking at what had occurred between the 2011 and the 2015 elections and making an intelligent guess.

When the Senate Expense Scandal hit the headlines the Conservatives began to show weakness in their polls and surprisingly the Liberals were the ones who benefited. After a short time the polls were saying that the Liberals would win a majority government if the election would have been held on the day a given poll was released. This was true for around 18 months. I know that I say do not trust the polls but when scores of polls, conducted by all of the major polling companies in the country, indicate that the Liberals are in majority territory for 18 straight months the polls might be on to something. Essentially what they were saying was if Canadians were to change governments the Liberals would be the agent for that change.

After about 18 months the polls settled into a three-way tie and then Rachel Notley won in Alberta. Well that historical victory immediately boosted the federal NDP into first place in the polls and they remained there until the writ was dropped. At that time many commentators were breathlessly saying that the NDP would finally grab the brass ring and that the Liberals would be relegated to third party status again.

Of course that did not happen.

I provide this anecdote because what those commentators failed to understand was Canadians consistently indicated that the Liberals were their choice to replace the Harper government if Canadians were so inclined to make such a change. They were and they did. The minutiae of the pre-writ and writ period did not change that simple fact.

How does that relate to the current election?

Since the pandemic started all of the public polls have indicated that the Liberals have been comfortably leading the pack, with a very short period during the WE controversy where they were tied. Further, those same polls indicated that Canadians prefer Justin Trudeau to be PM, by very large margins. Again this has been true for about 18 months and all polling companies have reported this. Again, one should be cautious when trying to infer anything from public polls but when they consistently say something for that amount of time they might be somewhat reflecting reality.

Further, many commentators were indicating that the Conservative base may not be as solid as in the past because many of its more extreme elements have other alternatives and quite frankly they did not appear to trust him. And it was not just the polls saying this. The actions of Mr. O'Toole himself seemed to indicate that there was some truth to these assertions. Plus even now some of his own candidates are downplaying both the party and Mr. O'Toole in their local campaigns.

Now that the election has started many have forgotten about these facts. It is as if just because the election has started that they no longer matter. They do, in a big way.

The time and events leading up to an election usually do not consciously register with people before an election. But is does register nonetheless and they do have an impact on the outcome. It might not seem that this is the case right now but as e-day approaches the impact of the time before the election was called will probably become more apparent.