To the National Post: Both Justin Trudeau and Erin O'Toole Campaigned in Alberta This Week, Updated

The front page of the National Post today was quite amusing. You could almost see the gritted teeth of all of the columnists who wrote in the paper today.

They are gritting their teeth because we saw the latest and most compelling evidence that the public polls are right in indicting that the Conservative base is eroding.

First, the fact that Mr. O'Toole made an election style campaign stop in Calgary to assure Albertans that any government lead by him would change the equalization formula. As the the leader of the only party Albertans vote for he need not have done that. It would be understood. So maybe the Conservatives' internal data analysis is saying that Albertans do not seem to be as inclined to support the Conservatives this time and that they may be looking a one of the alternative conservative parties that have popped up in that province.

The second, Justin Trudeau also campaigned in Calgary and he subtly attacked the sitting conservative premier of the province.

There are several iron laws of Canadian politics. One of them is when a leader of a party campaigns in a party stronghold it is because they believe they are in danger of losing seats there. As a corollary when the leader of a rival political party campaigns in one of your party's strongholds it is because they also believe you will lose seats and that those seats will go to his party.

I would still caution Liberals to not read too much into recent political events. We are talking politics here and things can change rather quickly. However, there is a possibility that the apparent erosion of the Alberta foundation of the Conservative base is real and that it will last through an election. If that happens the Conservatives have no chance of winning. They were only able to win the 2006, 2008 and 2011 elections because of their iron grip on Alberta and their shaking loose enough votes in key parts of Ontario. If they lose just an handful of seats in Alberta their chances of winning go down to less than zero.

I am still not convinced that the Conservative base is really eroding. I do believe that when the chips are down and Albertans are voting for real their habit of voting for the Conservatives will kick back in. However, the actions of Mr. O'Toole and Mr. Trudeau this past week would seem to indicate that the Conservatives might actually have to work for it this time. And that leads to a whole other set of questions about how the Conservatives will expend their time and resources in an election if they cannot count on the support of Albertans when the writ is dropped. But that is a question for another time. 

Update: Yes the unofficial election campaign has started and the PM will probably drop the writ before Labour Day. None of the Opposition Parties want an election because the most likely outcome is another Liberal victory, with a high probability of a Liberal majority government. That is why the Opposition Parties have demanded the Ethics Committee be recalled to review something the Liberals did even through what they did is common practice for all political parties. They are hoping that some kind of controversy will discourage the Liberals from calling an election.