Are the Conservatives Really in Trouble?

I have stated in this space and on other blogs many times before that the public polls cannot be trusted. So when you see a whole bunch of them indicating that the Liberals have opened up a double digit lead and that the Conservatives are in the 25% range you should take that with a sizable quantity of salt.

However, I have also stated that if you want to see how things are going look at what the parties are doing and saying. In that case there would appear to be some validity to the idea that the Conservatives are watching their base erode. I saw on Twitter that the Conservatives have released a video of a whole bunch of Alberta MPs extolling the virtues of the CPC to their fellow Albertans. That is odd because Alberta is the solid foundation of the Conservative base. The rest of the base my shift somewhat but they can always count on Conservatives in Alberta to vote for them. So why are they making such a video?

A few posts back I mentioned Erin O'Toole making a video stating that any government lead by him would defund the CBC and that such a video could be an indication of the erosion of the Conservative base because it would only appeal to that base. Promising to defund the CBC will not resonate with anybody but Conservatives and in actual fact would put off more than a few non-aligned voters.

The the Alberta MPs video could be another indication of the softening of the Conservative base.

Before Liberals and other Conservative opponents become too excited it should be noted that during the 2015 election there was a great deal of evidence to suggest that Stephen Harper was facing a similar problem. In 2011, Stephen Harper spent the first half of the election campaign throwing red meat at his base before pivoting in the last half to appeal to voters beyond that. That strategy along with a strong performance by Jack Layton and a pathetic performance by the Liberals lead to a Conservative majority government. In 2015, Stephen Harper started off with the same strategy but he failed to make the pivot half-way through, instead doubling down at throwing red meat at his base in the form of a niqab ban and a barbaric cultural practice snitch line. It looked like the Conservatives would be virtually destroyed. However, when the votes were counted, on election night in 2015, it was apparent that the Conservative base remained solid.

So no one should right off the Conservatives' ability to hang onto their base during the next election. Certainly Conservatives have other alternatives that they did not have in 2015 but that does not mean they will vote for those alternatives once they find themselves behind the little cardboard screens at their voting station.

There is increasing evidence that the Conservatives are losing their grip on their base. So the next election could wind up resembling 1993 when the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada shattered into three pieces. However, it is equally probable that when the time comes habitual Conservatives voters could go home to the CPC, maybe not being too happy doing it but doing so nonetheless.