We all know one definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different result. If that is a true definition then the Federal NDP has been absolutely bonkers for quite some time.
This train of thought was triggered by a Tik Toc video released by Mr. Singh where he claims that all of the good work done by the government during the pandemic can be traced back to him.
It is a tired old trope of the NDP to claim a) the Liberals are stealing the NDP's policy positions or b) the only reason why the Liberals propose progressive policies and bills is because the NDP "forces" them to do so. The NDP has been saying this since before it became the NDP.
What has been the result of this strategy? Simple, perennial third or fourth party status. No one believes them except for NDP partisans and the twisted arguments they put forward to "prove" their assertions would so offend Mr. Spock's sense of logic that they would drive him mad. It is interesting that the only leader of that party that did not resort to that argument was Jack Layton and we all know what he managed to do in 2011. When he died the NDP reverted to form and they have lost seats in the last two elections as a result.
The simple fact is the NDP have not figured out how to win an election at the Federal level. Mr. Layton might have been on to something but he never got the chance to see if it would push them over the top. Unfortunately for the NDP they forgot or ignored what Mr. Layton did to take them to becoming the erstwhile "government in waiting" and became insane once again.
As an aside, I have seen many NDP partisans mentioning that polls putting the NDP at 20% is bad news for the Liberals because it increases the chances of vote splitting. This just proves that many of these commentators do not really understand that concept. Vote splitting always benefits the political party that IS IN THE LEAD. So if the Liberals are indeed in the lead the split of the anti-Liberal vote can only help them not hurt them. If the Conservatives were in the lead then the split of the anti-Conservative vote would be great news for them, which is why Conservatives are always trying to create that split.
Further, in every election since 1984, the NDP has always polled well before the writ is dropped only to see themselves be around 5 points behind that polling when the actual votes are counted. That was even the case in 2011.
So if we are look at current polls and take them as being accurate the most likely outcome of an election, if it was held today, would be
Liberals at 37%
Conservatives at 30% (assuming they hang on to their base)
NDP at 15%
Bloc at 4%
Greens at 5%.
That would work out to a Liberal government of about 180 to 190 seats. Of course if the Conservative base does erode down to 25% then the Liberal seat count goes up to around 200.
1 comment:
They're mostly taking the anti-Liberal vote in the cuckoo west anyway, riding the coattails of provincial opposition leaders as voters sour on Kenney, Pallister and Moe. As well, coasting on the wave of Horgan's popularity in B.C. and possibly some ephemeral anti-Fordism in Ontario, attaching themselves to the otherwise invisible Horwath.
Which I find ironic considering Jagmeet and his adolescent Rose Twitter AOC stan club are diehard central planning adherents, who deliberately ignore the realities of provincial jurisdiction in Canadian federalism and attempt to gaslight the public that Trudeau "doesn't care about ordinary people" when he's being blamed for things that are in the premiers' wheelhouse.
In the US context, it would be like Bernie Sanders blaming Biden for the abhorrent policies and craven neglect of Republican governors in Texas and Florida. They claim to be the "conscience of parliament" but all they do is lie and smear like orange cons. The horseshoe theory of politics is real, so it's no wonder they're attracting residual Trudeau-derangement cons who don't find O'Toole to be enough of a bully.
Trudeau was very much in campaign mode in Alberta of all places, where he made very clear that the Liberals respect the division of powers. Hopefully, once under the actual scrutiny of a campaign, Singh might have to come up with actual answers for how he plans to strongarm recalcitrant provincial premiers into embracing his utopian platform of a unicorn in every garage, or convince the courts to throw out the constitution. "Peace order and good government" doesn't mean "wave a magic wand and implement luxury Christmas space communism by unilateral fiat".
Rumour has it the Liberals are very close to a concrete implementation of a childcare program with Horgan. If so, that would completely cut Singh and the NDP out from the knees and show them how it's done. He could use a lesson in remedial civics, and Shakespeare: "The fault is not in our federal Grits, dear Jagmeet, but in our provincial Cons."
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