In a few hours from the time I write this post (17:45 est) we will have an idea of who will be the President of the United States for the next four years. Just as important we will have an idea of what Congress will look like for the next two years.
The polling data overwhelmingly indicates that Joe Biden has the votes necessary to take the White House. Yes I realize that polls are not predictive and that 2016 proved that without a doubt. However, this is not a single poll the day of the election that is saying this is Joe Biden's election to lose. This is hundreds of polls conducted over eight months that have been saying that he leads nationally and in enough of the battleground states to get him to the 270 mark and beyond. I tend to ignore single polls but I do not ignore polling trends.
So that just leaves the intangibles.
Historically, Presidents tend to be re-elected for a second term. It has been true of every president since they went to the term limits. George Bush Sr. was an exception but he also won his first term after Ronald Reagan served for two terms. That was a case of Americans finally wanting a change and voting to make it happen. Jimmy Carter is the only president to win only one term. There are some parallels between the 1980 and 2020 election but they are still different elections with extremely different electorates.
Then there are the voter suppression efforts of Republicans. The problem with those is they would only be effective if the race was really close, that is, if the difference in the number of votes are in the Clinton/Trump neighbourhood. The polling trend has indicated that Joe Biden has held an average 10 point lead over Mr. Trump and that his average support is around 52%. If that is how the night shakes out then Mr. Biden will win, regardless of voter suppression or what happens in individual states. Oh yes, if that is the margin of victory for Mr. Biden the Supreme Court will not touch the election results with a 10 foot pole.
Turnout is another of the intangibles. One of the reasons why Donald Trump won last time was his voters turned out and Clinton voters did not. Turnout for early voting has been high but that does not necessarily mean that voter turnout will be higher than 2016 when all of the votes are finally counted. What it is going to come down to is if there are more people who want to see the end of the Trump presidency than those who want to see it continue and whether they will show up at the polls. The only good thing about this is the pool of voters for Donald Trump is probably much smaller than pool available for Joe Biden. Mr. Trump did not even attempt to expand his base during this election. The simple math is if voters in the Biden pool show up in greater numbers than those in the Trump pool Mr. Biden wins.
So who will win? I think when the dust settles Joe Biden will be the President-elect. The polling trend indicates he has a big enough lead that the polling companies would really have had to shit the bed to miss this one, like they did in 2016. Watching the campaign it does appear that Mr. Trump managed to accelerate the desire for change dynamic so that the majority of Americans want him gone. Finally, I believe he has motivated those same voters to go out and actually vote. We will see what the final vote tally is in a few days or weeks but it would not surprise me if this election breaks some voter participation records and if that is the case Mr. Biden will win.
The House of Representatives should remain a Democratic House. Indeed, there is a chance that they could increase their majority in the House. The election the House has been the most boring and predictable of the elections this cycle.
The Senate is a bit more interesting. There are several Republican incumbents who appear to be in trouble. They are being out fundraised and polling trends show that they are behind their challengers, although not by much. Further the Democratic incumbents seem to be having an easier time of it where none seem to be in too great of danger. The Senate election will probably be close but in the end the Democrats will probably come out on top by a couple of seats. Although that will probably change again in 2022.
The last election surprised everybody but as is often the case people tend to look at the last election as a guide to the current election. It is sometimes useful but it is also often wrong. (See the 2015 Canadian Federal Election to see an example). This is a different election with a different dynamic, namely the world dealing with a global pandemic, and the challenger to Mr. Trump is much more likeable than his 2016 challenger. This appears to be Joe Biden's election to lose and I do not believe there will be any surprises this time.
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