Monday, November 09, 2020

So Democrats did not make the same mistake twice

The 2016 election was all about turnout.  The simple fact is if just 100,000 additional Democratic voters would have turned out in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania the world would have been spared President Donald Trump.  Unfortunately, Democratic voters did not for a whole host of reason; their dislike of Hillary Clinton, their pining for Bernie Sanders and their complete lack of realization of the danger presented by Donald Trump despite his very open and honest presentation of it during the 2016 cycle.

The biggest question going into the 2020 election was whether Democrats would come out to vote this time around.  It turns out they did, in record numbers.  However, it also turns out that Republican voters turned out in record numbers, making the election much closer than virtually everybody (including me) thought it would be.  It turns out that Donald Trump was a very polarizing figure, motivating both his supporters and his detractors to come out in droves.  Fortunately for the world his detractors outnumber his supporters in key states.  

Now I guess we can look towards the Senatorial run-off elections in Georgia in January.  Will Democratic voters believing that they have done what needed to be done come out again?  Maybe because they are such a short time after the general election they might just do so.  Maybe Stacy Abrams will be able to work the same magic for January as she did for November 3.  However, my gut tells me they will not.  My biggest beef with progressive political parties is their lack of killer instinct when it comes to politics.  After they win something they tend to rest on their laurels, until they lose yet again when it is too late to do anything about it.

Plus there is 2022.  The mid-term are always hard on the party of the President because it is usually the protest vote that comes out while the voters aligned with the President tend to stay home.  That was the reason for the blue wave in 2018.  When the stakes were higher in 2020 that blue wave disappeared, and even receded a bit.

Joe Biden can hope the Democrats can win the two Georgia Senate seats in January so that he will have a united government for at least two years because in 2022 I would guess that the Democrats will lose both the House and the Senate, unless Democrats can somehow convince their supporters to come out in the same numbers as in 2020.  I would not hold your breath if you are hoping for that outcome.

Democrats did something that is not done very often.  They knocked off a sitting President vying for a second term.  That is an accomplishment but if they want to consolidate their victory they had better find a way to motivate and energize their voters in January 2021 and in 2022 or their happiness will be short lived.

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