Friday, November 20, 2020

Could Mr. Trump's Stubbornness Help the Democrats in the Georgia Senate Runoff Elections?

It has become somewhat conventional wisdom that one of the reasons why senior Republicans in the United States are not speaking up about the stupidity of Donald Trump is they want to avoid having him work against them in the Georgia run-off elections in January.  He does not give a damn about the Republican Party so he could do just that if crossed.

However, there is another consideration.  As I stated in my last post that election will probably come down to turnout.  Which ever side can bring out their voters will win.  The problem for Republicans is the general election has demonstrated that there are more Democratic voters than Republicans.  Joe Biden won that state by more than 10,000 votes.  If Democrats decide to come out in similar numbers to the general election the Republicans will lose control of the Senate.

On the other hand, Georgia is traditionally a Red State.  If turn out were to revert to the mean the Republicans would probably win.  So, I would think that Republicans would be looking to cool off Democratic voters in that state and that is probably not happening as a result of the ongoing Trump saga.  That daily spectacle along with the Republican leadership's unwillingness to speak out against it is perfect situation for Democrats to convince their voters in Georgia that their work is not yet done so they need to come out in January like they did on November 3.

It could be that the Republican leadership miscalculated.  Yes, coming out against Mr. Trump could convince him to speak out against them in the run-off elections but it could also cool off Democratic voters in that state.  Turnout from Republicans would be down but so would the turnout from Democrats.  In that situation I believe the Republicans would probably come out on top.  However, the longer the Trump saga continues will probably motivate Democratic voters more and more.  In short, by allowing Mr. Trump to keep himself in the spotlight the Republicans are reminding Democratic voters in Georgia why then needed to vote on November 3 and it could very well convince them that they still have one more step before they can finally be rid of him.

It is in the best interest of Americans that Mr. Trump be tossed into the dustbin of history, possibly by way of a jail cell.  I would argue that it is even more important for the Republican Party to see him off so that anti-Trump sentiment can cool and not be carried over into the Georgia Senate run-off elections.

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