Saturday, March 26, 2011

Stephen Harper is not a political genius

It is with great amusement that I read many media commentators claiming that Stephen Harper is poised to win a majority government because he is a seasoned campaigner while Mr. Ignatieff is a rookie.

How they have such short memories.

In the last two elections the Conservatives were given remarkable electoral gifts. The first was Adscam the second was a political opponent who did not have his whole party behind him and wound up having to deal with the perception that he was proposing a new tax just as a recession was starting.

In both of these cases Stephen Harper had majority governments virtually handed to him but he still managed to blow it.

I could just imagine what Jean Chretien would have done with either of these electoral gifts. Actually I do not need to imagine. Just look at what he did in 2000.

So why would anybody believe it will be different this time?

One of the other advantages that the Conservatives had the last couple of times was they did not have to defend their record over much. Things were not all great on that front in 2008 but they could deflect any flak by pointing to the Green Shift. This time around their government fell because they were found in Contempt of Parliament and they are facing all sorts of little scandals, which on their own would not be that bad, but when taken together could be trouble.

Now Mr. Ignatieff just sucked the air out of the one issue that they could have used to deflect attention away from those scandals.

In short, this election might not be as easy for Mr. Harper and the Conservatives as the last two.

The last two times the Liberals gave the Conservatives great electoral gifts and they failed to take advantage. There are only so many times that the Liberals will do the Conservatives this favour. Will they do it again this time? That remains to be seen but if they do not I wonder how Mr. Harper the political genius will react.

4 Comments:

Blogger Michael said...

...........the second was a political opponent who did not have his whole party behind him.............

That wouldn't have anything to do wih the current leader would it?No, of course not.

March 26, 2011 3:05 PM  
Blogger Brent said...

The Conservatives are fourth in the Quebec region. That's seven seats they need to make up for before they can even start making gains. They're not going to win a majority.

March 26, 2011 3:11 PM  
Blogger Rotterdam said...

He does not have to be.

Ignatieff is doing it for him by forcing this election, then sounding confused about a coalition.

March 26, 2011 4:23 PM  
Blogger marie said...

Ignatieff is doing it for him by forcing this election, then sounding confused about a coalition

Excuse me Rotterdam let me be perfectly clear; Harper himself forced this election. BTW do not get to complacent to think educated mature Canadians haven't noticed.They are not all as narrow minded as you boys are.

March 26, 2011 10:08 PM  

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