Stephane Dion is invited to meet with the Pope while he is vacationing in Venice .
The Canadian MSM watches the semi-private audience.
The Pope asks Dion to join him on a Gondola ride through the canals of Venice .They're admiring the sights and agreeing on moral issues when, all of a sudden, the Pope's hat (zucchetto) blows off his head and out into the water.
The gondolier starts to reach for the Pontiff's cap with his pole, but this move threatens to overturn the floating craft.
Dion waves the tour guide off, saying, 'Wait, wait. I'll take care of this. Don't worry.'
He steps off the gondola onto the surface of the water and walks out to the Pope's hat, bends over and picks it up. He walks back across the water to the gondola and steps aboard.
He hands the hat to the Pope amid stunned silence.
The next morning the headline on, CTV News , CBC News, The Globe and Mail, Global News, and the National Post is:
Dion Can't Swim !
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Conservatives, stupidly arrogant or arrogantly stupid?
When I read this last night I had a chuckle followed by a moment where by stomach sank.
The ignorance of the sentiments expressed in this story was breathtaking.
The Conservatives should not be worried about a deficit and trying to place the blame for that deficit on the Opposition. The situation they find themselves in is much more serious for them and for the country.
The world in entering the first real global recession since the late 1980s. All of the developed world is being hammered by the continuing fallout of the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the United States. This is resulting in most of the emerging economic powers suffering retreats in their economic output as their markets dry up. China is projected to have growth slow by more than 3 percentage points. Brazil and Mexico had to recently spend billions of their foreign currency reserves to prop up their currencies.
All of the developed world economies are moving as if emersed in slowly hardening concrete as a result of the credit crunch. The bailouts we have seen in the past month have only prevented a total collapse of the world credit market. They have not resolved the problem. That is going to take time. The Japanese went through this beginning in the mid-90s and it took them nearly a decade to recover.
Here in Canada, Central Canada has been in a recession for about a year but the Canadian economy has been buoyed by the energy and commodity industries. Now that is beginning to change. Oil and gas prices have tanked and the floor has not been reached on them yet. The same can be said of the commodity industries with the result of a sharp decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar. Normally, this would be good news for Central Canada except for the fact that the credit crunch prevents them making the investments they need to take advantage of that situation. And to make things worse the falling dollar will cause an increase in inflation restricting the room to maneuver for the Bank of Canada.
So, Canada is heading towards a recession of at least the proportions of the early 1990s and maybe even of the proportion of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
That is why I had a chuckle at that story. Deficits are the least of the problems the Conservatives will be facing. Recessions like those of the 70s through the early 90s take on a life of their own and they are government killers. Bob Rae, George Bush senior, John Major, and Jimmy Clark can all attest to that. During those kinds of recessions the vicious cycle develops where consumer confidence goes so low that they stop spending, which causes the recession to deepen, which causes consumer confidence to fall even further, leading to less spending and so on. This situation also leads to anger and angst and the desire of governments to do something, anything, to bring the country out of this spiral.
Of course, there is very little governments can do but that argument never works when this cycle takes hold. As well, the situation leads to alot less tolerance of the partisan antics we have been seeing the last few years. When things are good citizens ignore the government. When they are bad they look to government for solutions and they do not tolerate games.
As well, when times are bad voters in this country become more left-leaning, which should have an interesting effect on the political dynamics in this country, both at a macro and micro level.
The reason why my stomach sank is the sentiments expressed in that story indicate that the Conservatives still do not realize the gravity of the situation. I believed Mr. Harper's sanguine reaction to the economic crash last month was just him playing politics. However, that story last night seems to indicate that the Conservatives still have not fully grasped what is heading our way.
That is bad news for Canadians.
The Conservatives and Canadians find themselves in the unhappy situation of heading towards a recession that could rival some of the worst recessions of the last quarter of the last century.
For the Conservatives that means they could find themselves in a no-win situation, where they are constantly trying to put out the giant economic forest fire with a garden hose, where their
political agenda is totally hijacked by the economic fire and where Canadians angry at their lack of results in turning the economy around leads them to desert the Conservatives in droves at the ballot box.
For Canadians, we could be heading towards another recession where unemployment increases to double digits again, and where whole swaths of our society are decimated by a long and deep recession and its aftermath.
Sometimes, I do not know whether I should laugh or cry.
The ignorance of the sentiments expressed in this story was breathtaking.
The Conservatives should not be worried about a deficit and trying to place the blame for that deficit on the Opposition. The situation they find themselves in is much more serious for them and for the country.
The world in entering the first real global recession since the late 1980s. All of the developed world is being hammered by the continuing fallout of the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the United States. This is resulting in most of the emerging economic powers suffering retreats in their economic output as their markets dry up. China is projected to have growth slow by more than 3 percentage points. Brazil and Mexico had to recently spend billions of their foreign currency reserves to prop up their currencies.
All of the developed world economies are moving as if emersed in slowly hardening concrete as a result of the credit crunch. The bailouts we have seen in the past month have only prevented a total collapse of the world credit market. They have not resolved the problem. That is going to take time. The Japanese went through this beginning in the mid-90s and it took them nearly a decade to recover.
Here in Canada, Central Canada has been in a recession for about a year but the Canadian economy has been buoyed by the energy and commodity industries. Now that is beginning to change. Oil and gas prices have tanked and the floor has not been reached on them yet. The same can be said of the commodity industries with the result of a sharp decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar. Normally, this would be good news for Central Canada except for the fact that the credit crunch prevents them making the investments they need to take advantage of that situation. And to make things worse the falling dollar will cause an increase in inflation restricting the room to maneuver for the Bank of Canada.
So, Canada is heading towards a recession of at least the proportions of the early 1990s and maybe even of the proportion of the late 1970s and early 1980s.
That is why I had a chuckle at that story. Deficits are the least of the problems the Conservatives will be facing. Recessions like those of the 70s through the early 90s take on a life of their own and they are government killers. Bob Rae, George Bush senior, John Major, and Jimmy Clark can all attest to that. During those kinds of recessions the vicious cycle develops where consumer confidence goes so low that they stop spending, which causes the recession to deepen, which causes consumer confidence to fall even further, leading to less spending and so on. This situation also leads to anger and angst and the desire of governments to do something, anything, to bring the country out of this spiral.
Of course, there is very little governments can do but that argument never works when this cycle takes hold. As well, the situation leads to alot less tolerance of the partisan antics we have been seeing the last few years. When things are good citizens ignore the government. When they are bad they look to government for solutions and they do not tolerate games.
As well, when times are bad voters in this country become more left-leaning, which should have an interesting effect on the political dynamics in this country, both at a macro and micro level.
The reason why my stomach sank is the sentiments expressed in that story indicate that the Conservatives still do not realize the gravity of the situation. I believed Mr. Harper's sanguine reaction to the economic crash last month was just him playing politics. However, that story last night seems to indicate that the Conservatives still have not fully grasped what is heading our way.
That is bad news for Canadians.
The Conservatives and Canadians find themselves in the unhappy situation of heading towards a recession that could rival some of the worst recessions of the last quarter of the last century.
For the Conservatives that means they could find themselves in a no-win situation, where they are constantly trying to put out the giant economic forest fire with a garden hose, where their
political agenda is totally hijacked by the economic fire and where Canadians angry at their lack of results in turning the economy around leads them to desert the Conservatives in droves at the ballot box.
For Canadians, we could be heading towards another recession where unemployment increases to double digits again, and where whole swaths of our society are decimated by a long and deep recession and its aftermath.
Sometimes, I do not know whether I should laugh or cry.
Monday, October 20, 2008
I am done with the Liberal Party of Canada
I always thought Liberals were different. I always thought they were smart enough to avoid falling into the same trap the political right did after the virtual destruction of the Progressive Conservative Party in 1993. I always thought they were smart enough not to need to go through that kind of experience to renew itself and make itself stronger.
I was wrong.
It is now obvious that the Liberal Party of Canada is going to have to spend some time in the political wilderness in order to shed itself of the egotistical, power hungry dickheads and selfish yahoos that are always attracted to a political party that spends a long time in power. You see, once many of these folks realize that they will not even get close to the levers of power for a very long time they abandon the party, leaving the ones that truely care about the country and the Party behind to actually build something.
The resignation of Mr. Dion has just made all of that a virtual certainty. There is no way any new leader is going to be able to win an election in 12-18 months. He and the Party will lack the money, organization, policies and personal appeal amongst Canadians to win the next election. As well, although the next leader will probably pick up a few extra seats, which will be spun as a victory of sorts, Mr. Harper will pick up more and achieve his majority government. A third times the charm situation.
I want no part of that for the simple reason that it could be avoided. I will let you read my previous posts to see why I believe that.
Many have stated that Mr. Dion was at the helm for a very bad defeat for the Liberals. I am certain that more than a few former Progressive Conservatives are wondering what the hell they are talking about. As well, what the Liberals lack in quantity they more than make up for in quality. Imagine if all of that talent could be harnessed to launch an all out, coordinated attack on the one-man government of the Conservatives during what is looking more and more like one of the worst economic slowdowns in a century. Eventually, they would reduce Mr. Harper to a quivering oil spot on the floor of the House of Commons. Instead, much of that talent is going to be distracted from Mr. Harper and trying to win the leadership of the Liberal Party letting Mr. Harper off the hook.
I can now see the scenario where the Conservatives will be in power for a very long time. They are going to win the next election and they have a very good chance of winning a majority. By the time that term is up the worst of the recession will be over and it is conceivable that grateful Canadians will give them another majority for bringing them through that recession. The end result is it is conceivable that the Conservative term in office could eclipse the last Liberal term in office.
And for those who thing I may be overstating it I would suggest that the folks on the right probably did not expect the Liberals to remain in power for nine more very long years after the 1997 election. After all, the Liberals had their 20 seat majority reduced to a 5 seat majority and the political right seemed to be on the ascendency. They were really shocked in 2000 when Jean Chretien increased his majority by 12 seats.
I am still a liberal but I want no part of a Liberal Party that is under the thumb of folks who care more about their own ambitions than the country. I may return to helping the Liberal Party after the Party finally sheds these bozos but then again by then Stephen Harper will be tearing down what Liberals spent more than a century building and it will be the Liberal Party that will let them do it because they could not get their shit together. It is a toss-up as to whether I will be able to forgive the Liberals for letting that happen.
I was wrong.
It is now obvious that the Liberal Party of Canada is going to have to spend some time in the political wilderness in order to shed itself of the egotistical, power hungry dickheads and selfish yahoos that are always attracted to a political party that spends a long time in power. You see, once many of these folks realize that they will not even get close to the levers of power for a very long time they abandon the party, leaving the ones that truely care about the country and the Party behind to actually build something.
The resignation of Mr. Dion has just made all of that a virtual certainty. There is no way any new leader is going to be able to win an election in 12-18 months. He and the Party will lack the money, organization, policies and personal appeal amongst Canadians to win the next election. As well, although the next leader will probably pick up a few extra seats, which will be spun as a victory of sorts, Mr. Harper will pick up more and achieve his majority government. A third times the charm situation.
I want no part of that for the simple reason that it could be avoided. I will let you read my previous posts to see why I believe that.
Many have stated that Mr. Dion was at the helm for a very bad defeat for the Liberals. I am certain that more than a few former Progressive Conservatives are wondering what the hell they are talking about. As well, what the Liberals lack in quantity they more than make up for in quality. Imagine if all of that talent could be harnessed to launch an all out, coordinated attack on the one-man government of the Conservatives during what is looking more and more like one of the worst economic slowdowns in a century. Eventually, they would reduce Mr. Harper to a quivering oil spot on the floor of the House of Commons. Instead, much of that talent is going to be distracted from Mr. Harper and trying to win the leadership of the Liberal Party letting Mr. Harper off the hook.
I can now see the scenario where the Conservatives will be in power for a very long time. They are going to win the next election and they have a very good chance of winning a majority. By the time that term is up the worst of the recession will be over and it is conceivable that grateful Canadians will give them another majority for bringing them through that recession. The end result is it is conceivable that the Conservative term in office could eclipse the last Liberal term in office.
And for those who thing I may be overstating it I would suggest that the folks on the right probably did not expect the Liberals to remain in power for nine more very long years after the 1997 election. After all, the Liberals had their 20 seat majority reduced to a 5 seat majority and the political right seemed to be on the ascendency. They were really shocked in 2000 when Jean Chretien increased his majority by 12 seats.
I am still a liberal but I want no part of a Liberal Party that is under the thumb of folks who care more about their own ambitions than the country. I may return to helping the Liberal Party after the Party finally sheds these bozos but then again by then Stephen Harper will be tearing down what Liberals spent more than a century building and it will be the Liberal Party that will let them do it because they could not get their shit together. It is a toss-up as to whether I will be able to forgive the Liberals for letting that happen.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Dion's leadership has been endorsed.
If there is anything that should give some Liberals pause in their hurrying Mr. Dion out the door it is this.
Sorry folks but this guys word carries only slightly more weight with me than that of Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton.
I am certain that a great many grassroots Liberals would agree with me.
Sorry folks but this guys word carries only slightly more weight with me than that of Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton.
I am certain that a great many grassroots Liberals would agree with me.
Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier will be back
I am going to take my own advice and focus on the Conservatives for a moment.
I found it very strange that one of the first things Mr. Harper talked about in his post election new conference was Senate reform. He went so far as to threaten to stack the Senate to facilitate said reform.
My question was why would he begin his second term talking about an issue that is a non-starter east of the Ontario/Manitoba border?
Then I remembered Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier. Mr. Harper wants them back. Mr. Fortier could not get into the House the usual way and Mr. Emmerson does not like the hurly-burly of the House. Using Senate reform as political cover to bring them back is something Mr. Harper would not hesitate in doing. As well, making them part of a larger group serves to provide more political cover. Such a strategy is cynical as hell but that is pretty much the short definition of Mr. Harper's approach to politics.
Do not be surprised if Mr. Harper announces a bunch of Senate appointments just before he announces his cabinet and do not be surprised if a couple of them are announced as being members of both institutions.
I found it very strange that one of the first things Mr. Harper talked about in his post election new conference was Senate reform. He went so far as to threaten to stack the Senate to facilitate said reform.
My question was why would he begin his second term talking about an issue that is a non-starter east of the Ontario/Manitoba border?
Then I remembered Mr. Emmerson and Mr. Fortier. Mr. Harper wants them back. Mr. Fortier could not get into the House the usual way and Mr. Emmerson does not like the hurly-burly of the House. Using Senate reform as political cover to bring them back is something Mr. Harper would not hesitate in doing. As well, making them part of a larger group serves to provide more political cover. Such a strategy is cynical as hell but that is pretty much the short definition of Mr. Harper's approach to politics.
Do not be surprised if Mr. Harper announces a bunch of Senate appointments just before he announces his cabinet and do not be surprised if a couple of them are announced as being members of both institutions.
There is no Liberal saviour
I have noticed today, as leadership speculation runs rampant, that all sorts of names are being put forward as possible replacements for Mr. Dion if he decides to leave or if he is pushed.
Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley, Ms. Arbour, Santa Claus, just to name a few.
Of course, many are hoping that any one of these folks will be able to turn around Liberal fortunes. Indeed, some are actually saying that they will.
To demonstrate the fallacy in that I asked my wife if she knew any of the names being bandied about. Unlike me she has no interest in politics. She did not become engaged in the last election until the debates, when she watched about 30 minutes of them. Then on election day, she peppered me with a bunch of questions about all of the parties just before we went to the voting station. In short I would say she is a reasonably typical voter.
So, when I asked her about Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley and Ms. Arbour she had no idea who I was talking about. She did not even know the names and she would not be able to pick their faces out of a line-up.
When I mentioned Mr. Rae she said: "Ohh, Rae days."
Not exactly what Liberals would hope for from an "ordinary voter". The simple fact folks is none of the names being bandied about are well known to Canadians, except for Mr. Rae and that might be a mixed blessing. Another simple fact is Canadians will not vote for someone they do not know. This last election proved that. Canadians decided to give Mr. Harper another mandate despite the fact that Canadians do not really like him. They might not like him but they do know him. Mr. Dion was not well known except for the caricature built by the Conservatives and a complicit media and the results speak for themselves.
Stephane Dion is now known to Canadians. Their opinion of him is probably not the best but opinions change over time. Dalton McGuinty was written off after being crushed by Mike Harris. Stephen Harper was written off after losing the 2004 election.
Stephane Dion has the qualities to be a good PM and the election campaign demonstrated that he was growing into the job. Forcing him out will solve nothing. Of course, if he decides to leave then the Liberals will have to respect his wishes, but if he decides to stay then Liberals should accept that and prepare for the next election.
I know many disagree with that assessment. I have no problem with that. If you believe Mr. Dion is not the right man for the job then I respect that. If you want to replace him because you believe another person will be the "saviour" of the Liberal Party then I hope that you are willing to share whatever up you are smoking.
Make no mistake, if the Liberals replace their leader they will go into the next election with a little known leader, who will be leading a party that is broke and woefully unprepared to fight an election. So, I hope all of those who want to replace Mr. Dion are prepared for another election loss in a few months and a possible four years in the political wilderness as Canadians may just decide to give Mr. Harper his majority next time.
With Mr. Dion at the helm the Liberals will be lead by someone who is known and they should have the financial resources to fight a decent campaign. As well, the May policy convention would actually perform its function providing the Liberals with grassroot inspired policies that might motivate Liberals to come out and vote next time.
I have no idea how Mr. Dion would do a second time around. However, I do know that having a known leader, some policies developed by the grassroots and adequate financial resources is better than the opposite when going into an election.
I hope Mr. Dion is thinking with a clear head when he is considering his future but I also hope Liberals begin thinking with a clear head they are considering his future too.
Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley, Ms. Arbour, Santa Claus, just to name a few.
Of course, many are hoping that any one of these folks will be able to turn around Liberal fortunes. Indeed, some are actually saying that they will.
To demonstrate the fallacy in that I asked my wife if she knew any of the names being bandied about. Unlike me she has no interest in politics. She did not become engaged in the last election until the debates, when she watched about 30 minutes of them. Then on election day, she peppered me with a bunch of questions about all of the parties just before we went to the voting station. In short I would say she is a reasonably typical voter.
So, when I asked her about Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. McKenna, Mr. Manley and Ms. Arbour she had no idea who I was talking about. She did not even know the names and she would not be able to pick their faces out of a line-up.
When I mentioned Mr. Rae she said: "Ohh, Rae days."
Not exactly what Liberals would hope for from an "ordinary voter". The simple fact folks is none of the names being bandied about are well known to Canadians, except for Mr. Rae and that might be a mixed blessing. Another simple fact is Canadians will not vote for someone they do not know. This last election proved that. Canadians decided to give Mr. Harper another mandate despite the fact that Canadians do not really like him. They might not like him but they do know him. Mr. Dion was not well known except for the caricature built by the Conservatives and a complicit media and the results speak for themselves.
Stephane Dion is now known to Canadians. Their opinion of him is probably not the best but opinions change over time. Dalton McGuinty was written off after being crushed by Mike Harris. Stephen Harper was written off after losing the 2004 election.
Stephane Dion has the qualities to be a good PM and the election campaign demonstrated that he was growing into the job. Forcing him out will solve nothing. Of course, if he decides to leave then the Liberals will have to respect his wishes, but if he decides to stay then Liberals should accept that and prepare for the next election.
I know many disagree with that assessment. I have no problem with that. If you believe Mr. Dion is not the right man for the job then I respect that. If you want to replace him because you believe another person will be the "saviour" of the Liberal Party then I hope that you are willing to share whatever up you are smoking.
Make no mistake, if the Liberals replace their leader they will go into the next election with a little known leader, who will be leading a party that is broke and woefully unprepared to fight an election. So, I hope all of those who want to replace Mr. Dion are prepared for another election loss in a few months and a possible four years in the political wilderness as Canadians may just decide to give Mr. Harper his majority next time.
With Mr. Dion at the helm the Liberals will be lead by someone who is known and they should have the financial resources to fight a decent campaign. As well, the May policy convention would actually perform its function providing the Liberals with grassroot inspired policies that might motivate Liberals to come out and vote next time.
I have no idea how Mr. Dion would do a second time around. However, I do know that having a known leader, some policies developed by the grassroots and adequate financial resources is better than the opposite when going into an election.
I hope Mr. Dion is thinking with a clear head when he is considering his future but I also hope Liberals begin thinking with a clear head they are considering his future too.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The Liberals: Focus on the Conservatives
Much has been said about the loss the Liberals suffered last night and many have tried to figure out why.
The primary reason is simple. The Conservatives enjoyed the ballot box bonus that incumbents often enjoy. It happened to the Liberals in both 2004, when they jumped from 33% on the Sunday before E-day to 36% on E-day. It also happened in 2006 when it allowed them to salvage a hundred seats. It should come as no surprise that the Conservatives were the ones to enjoy this incumbent bonus this time. This bonus always happens with the desire for change amongst the electorate is low and by most accounts it was exactly that this time, which those pollsters who actually asked the question putting it at under 50%.
To blame Mr. Dion is downright silly. In retrospect that little surge by the Liberals in the last week had a negative side effect. It actually made Liberals believe they could win or at least keep it close.
That is non-sensical really. With no real strong desire for change it was predictable that the Liberals would lose.
So what now?
As the title says, focus on the Conservatives. They are going to be in tough this time. They are going to have to make some really tough decisions on how to handle the coming economic troubles that will not make anybody happy. As well, there is a very good chance that their nostrums for the economy will come straight from their ideology instead of sound analyses of the various problems, which could make things even worse for them.
The last thing the Liberals need to be doing during that time is choosing a new leader. They should instead spend their time hammering the Conservatives and getting ready for the next election in 12-18 months.
Mr. Dion has improved a great deal since his election to the Liberal leadership. Hell there was a marked improvement just over the 5 weeks of the election campaign. His efforts contributed to stopping Mr. Harper from achieving a majority government. He did this despite having the deck stacked against him. As I have stated before the media in this election went to unprecedented lengths to give the Conservatives a pass while crucifying Mr. Dion. They did not go to those lengths in 2000 with Mr. Day, which is the last time the media essentially destroyed a leader of one of the major political parties.
It is ironic that it is these very same media that is now leading the charge to have Mr. Dion removed. What he did to deserve this from them is beyond me. However, I would think that considering what we saw from the media in the last 5 weeks that Liberals would do the exact opposite of what they suggest. They do not have the best interests of the Liberal Party at heart.
I would also remind Liberals that new leaders of political parties never win elections just months after their election to that post. It is not very hard to see Mr. Harper engineering his defeat just weeks after a new Liberal leader is chosen. I can assure you in that situation Canadians will not elect the Liberals. Canadians will not elect an Opposition Party lead by someone who has barely had enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway. So what do we do then? Do we again turf out the leader and have another leadership race.
A leadership race at this juncture will take away resources that will be needed for an election in 12-18 months and deflect attention from the troubles the Conservatives will probably be dealing with during that period. The time for the internal struggles between the various leadership camps is behind us. Liberals should be looking ahead.
Of course, that is not what is going to happen. Since the departure of Mr. Chretien the Liberal Party has had a serious case of the stupids. My guess is that case will reach terminal levels over the next weeks or months and the Party will let Mr. Harper off the hook and hamstring its chances of winning the next election by having a destructive, time consuming and expensive leadership contest. Since Mr. Harper will be receiving a free ride from the Official Opposition as a result it would not surprise me one bit to see him win the extra 10-15 seats he needs for his majority the next time around.
If the Liberals focus they have a very good shot at winning the next election. If they allow the Party to degenerate into another furball then in all likelyhood the new leader will have four years to get settled into Stornaway as he helplessly watches Stephen Harper dismantle the Canada Liberals spent a century building.
The primary reason is simple. The Conservatives enjoyed the ballot box bonus that incumbents often enjoy. It happened to the Liberals in both 2004, when they jumped from 33% on the Sunday before E-day to 36% on E-day. It also happened in 2006 when it allowed them to salvage a hundred seats. It should come as no surprise that the Conservatives were the ones to enjoy this incumbent bonus this time. This bonus always happens with the desire for change amongst the electorate is low and by most accounts it was exactly that this time, which those pollsters who actually asked the question putting it at under 50%.
To blame Mr. Dion is downright silly. In retrospect that little surge by the Liberals in the last week had a negative side effect. It actually made Liberals believe they could win or at least keep it close.
That is non-sensical really. With no real strong desire for change it was predictable that the Liberals would lose.
So what now?
As the title says, focus on the Conservatives. They are going to be in tough this time. They are going to have to make some really tough decisions on how to handle the coming economic troubles that will not make anybody happy. As well, there is a very good chance that their nostrums for the economy will come straight from their ideology instead of sound analyses of the various problems, which could make things even worse for them.
The last thing the Liberals need to be doing during that time is choosing a new leader. They should instead spend their time hammering the Conservatives and getting ready for the next election in 12-18 months.
Mr. Dion has improved a great deal since his election to the Liberal leadership. Hell there was a marked improvement just over the 5 weeks of the election campaign. His efforts contributed to stopping Mr. Harper from achieving a majority government. He did this despite having the deck stacked against him. As I have stated before the media in this election went to unprecedented lengths to give the Conservatives a pass while crucifying Mr. Dion. They did not go to those lengths in 2000 with Mr. Day, which is the last time the media essentially destroyed a leader of one of the major political parties.
It is ironic that it is these very same media that is now leading the charge to have Mr. Dion removed. What he did to deserve this from them is beyond me. However, I would think that considering what we saw from the media in the last 5 weeks that Liberals would do the exact opposite of what they suggest. They do not have the best interests of the Liberal Party at heart.
I would also remind Liberals that new leaders of political parties never win elections just months after their election to that post. It is not very hard to see Mr. Harper engineering his defeat just weeks after a new Liberal leader is chosen. I can assure you in that situation Canadians will not elect the Liberals. Canadians will not elect an Opposition Party lead by someone who has barely had enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway. So what do we do then? Do we again turf out the leader and have another leadership race.
A leadership race at this juncture will take away resources that will be needed for an election in 12-18 months and deflect attention from the troubles the Conservatives will probably be dealing with during that period. The time for the internal struggles between the various leadership camps is behind us. Liberals should be looking ahead.
Of course, that is not what is going to happen. Since the departure of Mr. Chretien the Liberal Party has had a serious case of the stupids. My guess is that case will reach terminal levels over the next weeks or months and the Party will let Mr. Harper off the hook and hamstring its chances of winning the next election by having a destructive, time consuming and expensive leadership contest. Since Mr. Harper will be receiving a free ride from the Official Opposition as a result it would not surprise me one bit to see him win the extra 10-15 seats he needs for his majority the next time around.
If the Liberals focus they have a very good shot at winning the next election. If they allow the Party to degenerate into another furball then in all likelyhood the new leader will have four years to get settled into Stornaway as he helplessly watches Stephen Harper dismantle the Canada Liberals spent a century building.
The Conservatives: The Chess Master failed
Make no mistake. The Conservative Party won last night's election in a convincing fashion.
However, they failed in achieving the primary objective of calling this election, which we all know was to win a majority government. For the second time in a row the Conservatives found themselves in the ideal position to sweep the country and they came up short. Certainly they did better than last time but they still came up short.
Now let us remind ourselves as to why they wanted a majority government.
I would have to say that judging by the facial expression and subdued demeanour of Rick Anderson last night on the CBC not all Conservatives are happy with Mr. Harper's failure to win a majority. Mr. Anderson should have been bouncing off the walls since the Conservatives had just won back-to-back elections for the first time in almost two decades. Instead, he was saying that Mr. Harper would have to think upon last night's results.
Mr. Anderson and many other Conservatives know that Canadians will only give you so many kicks at the can before they decide that you are no longer worthy. They know that Canadians will eventually grow tired of Mr. Harper and his ways and they know that he may already be on borrowed time. Many Conservatives may feel the same way I felt after the 2004 election when Paul Martin only won a minority government. Although I was happy that the Liberals won the election I also knew that they would not win the next one.
It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next 12-18 months.
However, they failed in achieving the primary objective of calling this election, which we all know was to win a majority government. For the second time in a row the Conservatives found themselves in the ideal position to sweep the country and they came up short. Certainly they did better than last time but they still came up short.
Now let us remind ourselves as to why they wanted a majority government.
- The economy is going into the crapper and they wanted those four or five years in order to have security during the worst of the coming recession.
- They wanted the novelty of a liberal, black US President, preaching change and liberal values to wear off before they have to face the Canadian electorate again.
- The In-and-Out Scandal has not played itself out completely. It should come to some sort of conclusion within a year. In all likelihood it will not be great news for the Conservatives. Having four of five years with which to recover from any negative impacts of that scandal would have been nice.
- The Mulroney/Schrieber Inquiry will have to go forward. With a majority government the Conservatives could have canceled it and that would have been forgotten by 2012. Now it will be occuring at the same time they will be trying to come to grips with a faltering economy.
- The Cadman Affair could come back to haunt them again.
- The Conservatives could have used a majority to squash all other Parliamentary Committee inquiries into all of the other little ethical lapses that have dogged the Conservatives.
The Conservative's second term in office will be much different than its first. They no longer have a Liberal surplus with which to buy votes and the economy is heading in the wrong direction. If it really heads into the crapper the Conservatives will wear it.
The In-and-Out Scandal has the potential to be very damaging. Perhaps fatal in the short time between now and the next election. The RCMP only executes search warrants if there is sufficient probably cause to believe a crime has been commited. Although nothing has come out yet the potential damage of Canadians seeing the Conservative Party and dozens of Conservative Party members, including sitting MPs and Cabinet Ministers, being criminally charged with violating Canada's election law could be catastrophic to the Conservatives.
Combine that with many of the other scandals that have dogged the Conservatives since last winter coming home to roost, I expect this Parliament to be nasty, brutish and short.
To make Mr. Harper's life just a little more difficult he could have some difficulty keeping his party under the tight control he prefers.I would have to say that judging by the facial expression and subdued demeanour of Rick Anderson last night on the CBC not all Conservatives are happy with Mr. Harper's failure to win a majority. Mr. Anderson should have been bouncing off the walls since the Conservatives had just won back-to-back elections for the first time in almost two decades. Instead, he was saying that Mr. Harper would have to think upon last night's results.
Mr. Anderson and many other Conservatives know that Canadians will only give you so many kicks at the can before they decide that you are no longer worthy. They know that Canadians will eventually grow tired of Mr. Harper and his ways and they know that he may already be on borrowed time. Many Conservatives may feel the same way I felt after the 2004 election when Paul Martin only won a minority government. Although I was happy that the Liberals won the election I also knew that they would not win the next one.
It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the next 12-18 months.
NDP: They just don't get it.
One of the most amusing events of last night was Mr. Layton's speech.
The NDP had just put itself into to hock up to its eyeballs. For that effort they had gained about a half dozen seats and were still relegated to fourth party status in a Parliament of four parties.
Yet, Jack Layton had this silly shit eating grin on his face.
That grin pretty much sums up the NDP. For them victory is taking just a few more seats. From that they construct this dream that they will go on to become the Official Opposition and then who knows?
I saw the same thing in 1984. That was the last time the NDP reaches such dizzying heights in the seat count and they were entralled with these delusions of grandeur. Of course 1988 brought them down to earth and then they spent most of the '90s fighting to maintain official party status.
One of the things that last night's election proved is that Canadians still believe that there are only two parties that they trust to form a national government. That is the Conservatives and the Liberals. Every few years Canadians become disenchanted with the Liberals and they begin to look for alternatives on the centre left. The NDP usually benefits from that. However, eventually, those same Canadians grow tired of the Conservatives and they go back to the one party that can replace them, the Liberal Party.
Unfortunately for the NDP, that disenchantment with the Liberals can only go so far. Last night has proven that. For the NDP to really step up to the next level they are actually going to have to re-invent their party. They are going to have to take it out of the 1960s and bring it into the 21st Century. The Conservatives and Liberals re-invent themselves all of the time, which is why they are the only two parties that Canadians trust with power. Until the NDP can accomplish the same thing they will always be the junior of junior partners in Parliament.
That grin on Mr. Layton's fact last night would seem to indicate that he will not be the one to lead the NDP reinvention.
Expect the NDP "tide" to begin receding soon, maybe even during the next election.
The NDP had just put itself into to hock up to its eyeballs. For that effort they had gained about a half dozen seats and were still relegated to fourth party status in a Parliament of four parties.
Yet, Jack Layton had this silly shit eating grin on his face.
That grin pretty much sums up the NDP. For them victory is taking just a few more seats. From that they construct this dream that they will go on to become the Official Opposition and then who knows?
I saw the same thing in 1984. That was the last time the NDP reaches such dizzying heights in the seat count and they were entralled with these delusions of grandeur. Of course 1988 brought them down to earth and then they spent most of the '90s fighting to maintain official party status.
One of the things that last night's election proved is that Canadians still believe that there are only two parties that they trust to form a national government. That is the Conservatives and the Liberals. Every few years Canadians become disenchanted with the Liberals and they begin to look for alternatives on the centre left. The NDP usually benefits from that. However, eventually, those same Canadians grow tired of the Conservatives and they go back to the one party that can replace them, the Liberal Party.
Unfortunately for the NDP, that disenchantment with the Liberals can only go so far. Last night has proven that. For the NDP to really step up to the next level they are actually going to have to re-invent their party. They are going to have to take it out of the 1960s and bring it into the 21st Century. The Conservatives and Liberals re-invent themselves all of the time, which is why they are the only two parties that Canadians trust with power. Until the NDP can accomplish the same thing they will always be the junior of junior partners in Parliament.
That grin on Mr. Layton's fact last night would seem to indicate that he will not be the one to lead the NDP reinvention.
Expect the NDP "tide" to begin receding soon, maybe even during the next election.
The Bloc Quebecois: Why do the federalist parties keep giving the Bloc chances at new life?
In 2003 the conventional wisdom was the Bloc Quebecois was on its way to extinction. It had lost its reason for being and it was widely expected that when Paul Martin took over the Liberal Party and called an election that they would be all but wiped out.
Then the sponsorship scandal happened and Quebecers became very pissed off at the Liberals. The Conservative Party was moribund in Quebec in 2004 so all of those pissed off Quebecers turned to the Bloc. They won a huge number of seats in Quebec and like yesterday they denied a sitting government a majority government.
They had been slowly fading since 2004 until this year they were again looking at being overtaken by one of the national parties. And then Stephen Harper insulted artists and suggested throwing 14 year olds in prison and the Bloc was given a new life yet again. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I believe the number of seats they won last night exceeded that which they won in 2004.
Anyway, I guess we can expect them to around for at least another two elections, unless of course either the Liberals or the Conservatives does something to again breath new life into them.
Then the sponsorship scandal happened and Quebecers became very pissed off at the Liberals. The Conservative Party was moribund in Quebec in 2004 so all of those pissed off Quebecers turned to the Bloc. They won a huge number of seats in Quebec and like yesterday they denied a sitting government a majority government.
They had been slowly fading since 2004 until this year they were again looking at being overtaken by one of the national parties. And then Stephen Harper insulted artists and suggested throwing 14 year olds in prison and the Bloc was given a new life yet again. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I believe the number of seats they won last night exceeded that which they won in 2004.
Anyway, I guess we can expect them to around for at least another two elections, unless of course either the Liberals or the Conservatives does something to again breath new life into them.
Green Party: Very much pretenders
Last night's election should put any lingering ideas of the Green Party being a mainstream party to bed.
It only captured 6% of the popular vote and it gained no seats. It even lost its incumbent.
I like and respect Ms. May but her party is still considered a fringe, one issue party by most and it is going to remain that way for the forseeable future.
When we have the next election do not expect her to be part of the debates.
It only captured 6% of the popular vote and it gained no seats. It even lost its incumbent.
I like and respect Ms. May but her party is still considered a fringe, one issue party by most and it is going to remain that way for the forseeable future.
When we have the next election do not expect her to be part of the debates.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Ryan Sparrow Found!!
Since the departure of Mr. Sparrow from the Conservative campaign a month ago (Has it only been four weeks? It seems like four months.) I have to admit some curiosity as to where he ended up.
I received my answer in the mail today. I received the election flyer for the Communist Party of Canada and according to it Ryan Sparrow is running for their party in Hamilton Centre. Apparently, Mr. Sparrow has seen the errors of his ways, deserted the Conservative Party of Canada and decided to run for the Communists.
I wish him luck.
Disclaimer: In this post I have my tongue firmly pressed into my cheek. I realize that the Mr. Sparrow running in Hamilton is not the same Mr. Sparrow that was removed from the Conservative campaign.
I make no claim to this being a particularly funny joke but it is meant in jest since I believed that we could all use a good laugh in this campaign right about now. So, if I managed to cause you to chuckle or at least smile. Your welcome. If not, well, to be honest that is not my problem. I did chuckle when I saw a Ryan Sparrow running for the Communists so I decided to share it with all of you.
I received my answer in the mail today. I received the election flyer for the Communist Party of Canada and according to it Ryan Sparrow is running for their party in Hamilton Centre. Apparently, Mr. Sparrow has seen the errors of his ways, deserted the Conservative Party of Canada and decided to run for the Communists.
I wish him luck.
Disclaimer: In this post I have my tongue firmly pressed into my cheek. I realize that the Mr. Sparrow running in Hamilton is not the same Mr. Sparrow that was removed from the Conservative campaign.
I make no claim to this being a particularly funny joke but it is meant in jest since I believed that we could all use a good laugh in this campaign right about now. So, if I managed to cause you to chuckle or at least smile. Your welcome. If not, well, to be honest that is not my problem. I did chuckle when I saw a Ryan Sparrow running for the Communists so I decided to share it with all of you.
I have to disagree with Jason Cherniak
In this post Jason Cherniak argues that if Mr. Harper only wins a minority government on October 14 he will be gone as leader of the Conservative Party. I have to respectfully disagree.
Jason presents a reasonable argument. However, I believe he is missing one key element. The party in power does not have the luxury of voluntarily replacing its leaders when that party only has a minority government. As soon as they do so they make the current leader a lame duck completely unable to govern. That in and of itself would be bad enough for the prospects of the Conservatives winning another election. However, there is also the consideration that the government may fall as a result of a no-confidence motion during the chaos of a leadership selection process. Such a threat would make it even more difficult for the party to govern.
So the only way that the Conservatives get rid of Mr. Harper is if he loses the election and even then he may be able to hang on if the Liberals only win a very slim minority. Otherwise Mr. Harper is staying as leader of the Conservative Party. Either as a hero because he manages to pull out a majority government or because they are stuck with him because they cannot risk trying to replace him in a minority government situation.
Of course, if he only has a minority government then he can expect this time to be very different from the last time.
The media will be less inclined to carry his water. One of the reasons why they have been doing so since 2006 is because the corporate bigwigs that run our media believed what their journalist employees were saying. They believed that the Liberals had no hope of forming the government so they could ignore them without having to worry about their interests being threatened. If Mr. Harper only wins a minority the corporate bosses of our MSM will realize that the Liberals will become a government in waiting and it is not in their best corporate interests to alienate said government in waiting. If Mr. Harper only wins a minority government he can expect his long honeymoon with the MSM to be over.
If Mr. Harper only wins a minority government he can expect a very different Conservative Party. Gone will be the days where he will be able to demand that it is his way or the highway. More and more Conservatives, both internal operatives and members of his caucus will be less inclined to stay quiet on issues they consider to be important. Such a scenario could actually be helpful to the Conservatives as it would allow them to shed some of their "secretive" image. However, the weak bench strength of the Conservative caucus and the Conservatives Party's abundance of raving loons could also create the nightmare of giving the Party the image of just being the Reform/Canadian Alliance resurrection.
Jason presents a reasonable argument. However, I believe he is missing one key element. The party in power does not have the luxury of voluntarily replacing its leaders when that party only has a minority government. As soon as they do so they make the current leader a lame duck completely unable to govern. That in and of itself would be bad enough for the prospects of the Conservatives winning another election. However, there is also the consideration that the government may fall as a result of a no-confidence motion during the chaos of a leadership selection process. Such a threat would make it even more difficult for the party to govern.
So the only way that the Conservatives get rid of Mr. Harper is if he loses the election and even then he may be able to hang on if the Liberals only win a very slim minority. Otherwise Mr. Harper is staying as leader of the Conservative Party. Either as a hero because he manages to pull out a majority government or because they are stuck with him because they cannot risk trying to replace him in a minority government situation.
Of course, if he only has a minority government then he can expect this time to be very different from the last time.
The media will be less inclined to carry his water. One of the reasons why they have been doing so since 2006 is because the corporate bigwigs that run our media believed what their journalist employees were saying. They believed that the Liberals had no hope of forming the government so they could ignore them without having to worry about their interests being threatened. If Mr. Harper only wins a minority the corporate bosses of our MSM will realize that the Liberals will become a government in waiting and it is not in their best corporate interests to alienate said government in waiting. If Mr. Harper only wins a minority government he can expect his long honeymoon with the MSM to be over.
If Mr. Harper only wins a minority government he can expect a very different Conservative Party. Gone will be the days where he will be able to demand that it is his way or the highway. More and more Conservatives, both internal operatives and members of his caucus will be less inclined to stay quiet on issues they consider to be important. Such a scenario could actually be helpful to the Conservatives as it would allow them to shed some of their "secretive" image. However, the weak bench strength of the Conservative caucus and the Conservatives Party's abundance of raving loons could also create the nightmare of giving the Party the image of just being the Reform/Canadian Alliance resurrection.
Then there is the Liberal Party. It will be a true government-in-waiting. It will receive much more attention and positive coverage. It will be a much stronger opposition because of its experience at it for the last couple of years, because of the increased stature of Mr. Dion and because of its considerable bench strength. Of course, if the Liberal Party reacts badly to another Conservative minority and the knives come out for Mr. Dion they will just be shooting themselves in the foot and negating all of the problems Mr. Harper would be facing.
Mr. Harper has to win a majority government. If he only wins a minority government he will be able to hang on to his position as Party leader but he will wish he was somewhere else. If he actually loses this election he will be gone.
The Conservatives will probably win the election
In the final days of the election there are two important but contrary dynamics at work. The first dynamic is the incumbent advantage where alot of undecided voters decide to stick with the party already in power because they are the party in power and it was expected that they would win this election at the outset. The second dynamic is the strengthening of Liberal support as many progressives decide that they are the only ones that can replace the Conservatives so they switch their vote to them.
Unfortunately, the Conservatives will probably come out on top in this situation.
There are several reasons.
Unfortunately, the Conservatives will probably come out on top in this situation.
There are several reasons.
- They are leading at the moment so they have the advantage of not having to pick-up as much additional support as the Liberals to win the election.
- The desire for change in this country is not that strong so alot of Canadians will not care if the Conservatives continue to be the party in power.
- The Liberal surge is 7-10 days too late. Their current position in the polls should have been where they were before the debates. That would have given them a chance to overtake the Conservatives with enough time for the changing media narrative to sink in with Canadians.
So the only question will be what kind of government will be see on October 15?
That depends on how the two competing dynamics play out. The nightmare scenario is the incumbent advantage causes the maximum shift of support for the Conservatives while the progressive vote completely fails to coalesce around the Liberals. In that situation a slim Conservative majority government is possible.
However, I do not believe it is plausible. Unfortunately for the Conservatives the increasing economic crisis will probably hold them back. As well, it is likely that enough of the progressive vote will swing towards the Liberals to deny the Conservatives their much sought after majority.
So, I believe we will be stuck with another Conservative government on October 15. It will probably be another minority government but there is still the possibility that it will be a slim majority government.
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