Manipulate and Distract

One constant activity of our ruling class is their efforts to manipulate and/or distract those that they rule. It is constant and it is necessary because they have been screwing it up so badly for the last 30 or so years that ordinary people are noticing. Ruling classes screw things up for those they rule all of the time. It is the state of nature but usually they do not screw it up so badly those they screw notice. That is no longer the case hence the more determined efforts to manipulate and/or distract.

This line of thought was created by the kerfuffle that rose up a few days ago when it was revealed that a Global Affairs official had attended a garden party at the Russian Embassy. There is a perfectly valid reason why they would do that and we will get to that in a minute.

However, the reason why it became an issue has nothing to do with Russia or its war with Ukraine. If you seriously believe our ruling class really cares about either of these issues then you are lacking in critical thinking skills, aka, you are an idiot. The professionals at Global Affairs Canada care but that is because it is their job.

The real reason why this became an issue is because one of the major factions of our ruling class is going through a really tough time right now.

The hearings in Washington are laying bare just how far reaching the sedition went on January 6, 2021 and some of that is spilling over into Canada where we had our own January 6 moment, which dominated the news for three weeks in February of this year. I am not convinced the public inquiry into invoking the Emergencies Act will be as harmful to the Conservative Party of Canada as many progressives hope but the possibility is certainly there and they are acting like they know that fact.

The erstwhile front runner for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada is proving himself, almost on a daily basis, to be wholly unqualified for the position of being the leader of a political party, let alone the leader of a government, yet it looks like no one can catch him which may make winning the next election very difficult for the Conservatives.

Despite their best efforts, with the full throated support of the media, the Conservatives have been completely ineffective in even making Justin Trudeau sweat, let alone actually threatening his government. The Liberal government gets longer in the tooth daily but it is the Conservatives who are becoming unhinged these days.

Hence the distraction of a garden party. THE HORROR. 

Of course, it might not matter in the long-run and the Conservatives could still come out on top because ordinary people have proven that they are easily manipulated by the ruling class again, and again and again but it must still be disconcerting to see just how ineffective they have been in the last few months.

As for the garden party. The issue that the world has is with the Putin government not Russia or its people. Eventually the Putin era will come to an end, either because someone will remove him or mother nature will demand he be "returned to the soil" as all of us are expected to do at some point. Once that happens things will probably change. Russia has a history of leaders who turn away from the West only to be replaced by a successor who turns back to the West. Mr. Putin is just another in a long line of Russian leaders who have maintained this historical pattern. When that change happens, relations with the Government of Russia could change as well. Having one of the professionals from Global Affairs attending the garden party is designed to keep the lines of communications open for when the change takes place. It was completely justifiable and appropriate.

No, Campaigns Really Don't Matter

Neither does the political news that bombards us on a daily basis or social media.

I called the 2022 Ontario election in 2018. I knew then that Doug Ford would win, probably winning another majority. I was correct although I was mistaken about which party would become the Official Opposition.

The simple fact is all of the political minutiae that we are hammered with by the MSM and social media only registers with those of us who are politically inclined. For the rest nada. So, all of the stuff progressives have been talking about with regard to Doug Ford was just wind in a progressive echo chamber. The same is true with regard to the BS we have been hearing from conservatives regarding Justin Trudeau and his government. The vast majority of people who do not live and breath politics on a daily basis do not care.

Ordinary, non-political, people sleepwalk through political life. They do not pay attention during elections so it is a given they do not pay attention between them. That is one reason why I always chuckle when some political commentator states "Voters are not paying attention to the election yet" early in a campaign. I got news for you. They only paid attention for the few minutes it took them to get to the polling station and vote, if they even bothered to do that. The rest of the time it was all just noise to be ignored.

Some are blaming the media for this but this has been true for a very long time, including a time when the MSM actually did the job it was designed for. So, although it would make some feel better, the MSM cannot be blamed for this, which still does not excuse the modern MSM for their utter uselessness at informing their audiences of what is really going on in the world.

So what we are left with are historical voting patterns, something I have talked about at length in this blog. I wondered if a global pandemic would disrupt that pattern for just one election but considering two world wars failed to do so it should surprise no one that the pattern held this time.

Ordinary people, in all of the legacy democracies, have been sleepwalking through history, ignoring the old adage that the cost of freedom is eternal vigilance. It is one reason why I tend to be pessimistic about the future.

It is also something I recognized way back in 2006 when I started this blog, which is why I chose the quote from Plato that appears at the top of it.

American's Descent to 2nd World Status Continues

We know this because the so called richest country on the planet has a nationwide baby formula shortage. And it is not just a small shortage it is the kind of shortage where the USAF has to go to foreign countries and load pallets of the stuff on USAF transports. Remarkable.

Remember 2nd World countries are not necessarily poor countries. They are countries that can be quite wealthy but that wealth is so concentrated in the hands of a small and powerful elite that ordinary people actually live in poverty comparable to 3rd World countries. A country that finds it difficult to adequately feed their infants falls into that category.

One other aspect of 2nd World countries is they tend to be authoritarian. The US has not gone all the way there yet but it is certainly moving in that direction.

For now, Americans can still claim they live in a 1st World country but that is changing and recent events would seem to indicate that change is accelerating. 

The Ontario Election: What Party will Win?

My guess, at this time, is the Ontario Conservatives of Doug Ford will win the election on June 2. The only question is whether it will be a majority government or a minority government.

If were still not living through a global pandemic, that has disrupted out lives for the past two years, I would say the Conservatives were a lock to win another majority. It would be a smaller majority and the Liberals would leap into second place, but it would still be a majority. The reason is historical voting patterns. It is very rare for a first term majority government to not be returned with a second, smaller majority, and it is almost unheard of for a first term majority government to lose their second election.

Of course, most of that history did not occur with a global pandemic as a backdrop. The pandemic has changed politics in this country but it is a question of by how much. Did it change it enough to overcome a century old voting pattern? We will see.

Homo Sapiens are just not that bright

Although there are obvious exceptions, as a species we humans are very stupid. I would point out that the distribution of intelligence amongst humans looks like a bell curve so half of the people fall below the median intelligence. I would also point out that the median is really not that high either, so even those whose intelligence is above it are not overly intelligent either.

This thought was triggered by the recent election in France. France and indeed all of Europe was convulsed by a war that cost 10s of millions of lives and virtually destroyed all of the physical infrastructure of the continent because of fascism in it many forms. France itself had half of its territory brutally occupied by a foreign country while the other half was ruled by a puppet regime that was only allowed to exist because they had the same ideology as the occupying power and it took orders from that power. Millions of French citizens risked summary execution by resisting the occupation and the puppet.

So you would think after all of that they would run away from any political party that had even a hint of fascist tendencies. Nope. The last election in France had an openly fascist political party come in second during the general election and it was competitive during the runoff. 

I would understand that if all of the negative outcomes happened hundreds of years ago. The French might forget about most of them but that is not the case. Yes, the generation that had to live through it are mostly gone but it was recent enough that the generations that came after should have a clear idea of what fascism did to their country. I believe they do but they do not care because....

I do not know how to finish that sentence except to say "that they are not that bright". And they are not unique in this. It has become more and more apparent that this is a problem of the species and not just a given group or collective of it. 

Considering the existential threats that we will be facing in the next few decades I have to say that I am more and more inclined to believe this will be our fate instead of the alternative.

Cryptocurrencies

With Pierre Poilievre hocking cryptocurrencies as part of his campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada people have increasingly been trashing them. They have largely described them as some kind of scam and they are mistaken.

Cryptocurrencies are a logical extension of the the current technical revolution that we are going through. Remember before the Industrial Revolution and the resulting need for more and more energy to make it work petroleum was a useless substance. Hell, even coal, which has been used since antiquity, was not that big of a deal. For centuries, the only coal that was mined was the stuff that was near the surface. If you had to put in any more effort than that to get to it the cost was too prohibitive. It was only after the invention of the steam engine that coal and petroleum products became the important commodities that they have become.

Since the current technical revolution is essentially a virtual revolution, as its main commodity is data, it stands to reason that some of the commodities that would feed that revolution would also be virtual and cryptocurrencies are exactly that, a virtual commodity.

A market for commodities always develop when they become important and one forming for cryptocurrencies should surprise no one. As with all commodity markets the prices fluctuate according to market forces, leading to volatility. 

Incidentally, it should be noted that most national currencies have become virtual as well. There was a time when we used to exchange actual specie, bills and coins, for goods and services. Now we use bank cards. With a few key strokes some electrons move between computers and servers and money magically moves from one account to another but no real money is actually exchanged. It is a virtual transaction. So the difference between say Bitcoin and the Canadian Dollar is much less than people think and those differences are being reduced quickly.

So the problem with Mr. Poilievre's proposal is not cryptocurrencies it is his gross misunderstanding of them.

Although there are a few exceptions most commodities are not suitable to be used for facilitating the exchange of goods and services, which is the function of money. No one would suggest that I buy my next car using wheat, coal, or pork bellies. There was a time when gold or silver might have been appropriate but those times ended when we invented paper money.

The same is true of cryptocurrencies. Since they are a currency they can be likened to gold and silver but like those two commodities they are not practical for the everyday use of buying and selling goods and services and it will remain that way as long as there are national currencies. If countries ever get out of the business of "printing" their own currency, cryptocurrencies could fill the gap. But since that is not going to happen cryptocurrencies will just remain another commodity, to be bought and sold in a commodities market.

Mr. Poilievre is an idiot for suggesting otherwise but the problem lies with him not the cryptocurrencies.

Big Crowds for the Conservative Front Runner

So the media in our country is all a flutter about the crowds that Pierre Poilievre is attracting during this run for the Conservative leadership. They breathlessly assert that this could be a sign that the Conservatives could win the next election. Hell, even some Progressive media commentators, who I find usually have level heads, are giving dire warnings about their significance.

While it is always wise never to underestimate your political opponents and it is also true that if the current Federal government lasts until 2025 (it probably won't) the Liberals will have been in power for a decade, which could lead to a strong desire for change, one should not read too much of what happens during a party leadership campaign into politics in general.

Then there are the specific arguments that we have been seeing that shows that the political class, which includes all of these "journalists" never look more than a few days out.

Mr. Poilievre is indeed drawing big crowds but he is doing it in the West, specifically BC, which always splits its votes three ways in a general election. So one-third of the BC electorate will vote for the Conservatives regardless of who leads them so it should surprise no one that large crowds come out to see him. As well, it should also be noted that many of these people who do come to see him are being bussed in from various parts of the province which would indicate that he does have support in the province but not more than his two predecessors. Finally, it will be interesting if he can attract similar crowds in the East, particularly in the suburbs. 

Then there is the notion of whether having huge support of members of the Conservative Party can be translated into sufficient support amongst the electorate to win an election. More than a few commentators, who do not work for the MSM, have stated that such a feat would be an uphill climb. The simple fact is being successful at winning the leadership of a political party often does not translate into winning a general election. Just ask Erin O'Toole, Andrew Scheer, Michael Ignatieff, Stephane Dion and every leader of the NDP during its history about that. I am certain they would have some really good insight on that topic.

Some of the commentators who are stating that Mr. Poilievre could be a real threat are pointing to the red hot housing market and the fact that young people cannot afford homes anymore so that could be a real problem. Such assertions are silly on so many levels.

First, the younger generations are the most educated generations in our history. They are also the most forward looking and progressive generations. It is no coincidence that those who support right wing populism tend to be older and less educated, while more educated voters tend not to vote for them. So while they may be upset about housing prices they are also very keen on addressing climate change, before they and their children are really left holding the bag in a couple of decades. As well, most of them will not go for rolling back gay and abortion rights as many in the CPC would want. So, Mr. Poilievre's housing plans, such as they are, may appeal to the younger generations but his lack of a viable and effective plan to fight climate change and his party's turn towards hard social conservatism will turn them off completely.

Second, old people vote and young people do not. There are more young voters than old but the last three elections were decided by the 50+ voting blocks. And they are quite happy with the rise in housing prices because most of them are mortgage free, so the rise in their housing prices is pure equity for them to take advantage of as they head towards retirement.

Third, during the 2019 election I made the joke that Royal Lepage was going to win my riding because of all their signs on the front lawns in my neighbouhood. In short, three short years ago it was a buyers market and the current torrid pace in the rise of the price of houses is unsustainable in the medium to long-term. If anybody believes that housing prices will still be a hot issue during the next election they are probably wrong.

Fourth, predicting what will be the important issues during an election, months or years before said election, is impossible and anybody who says differently is full of crap. Remember folks the important issues of the 2019 election were Mr. Scheer's citizenship and whether he was completely truthful in stating he had a real estate licence and blackface. And in 2021 the big issues were the Conservatives' plans for gun control and whether protesters threw rocks or pebbles at the PM. In neither case no one predicted that those would be the issues the elections hinged on and in neither case were real issues discussed during the election so anybody who states that the next election will be about inflation or the price of houses is wrong. 

Pierre Poilievre is probably going to be the next leader of the CPC. He may be able to parley that success into an election win but that is not guaranteed regardless of the crowds he is currently attracting. People who assert or suggest otherwise are out to lunch.

Some Thoughts

The War in Ukraine: I would caution everybody not to believe what the media is saying about what is happening in the war. It is probably true that the war is not going exactly how the Russians believed it would but it is also probably true that Ukraine is not winning. I guess the big question is whether the Russians can sustain their effort for the medium to long-term. I do not believe so. Let's remember that the Russian economy, before the sanctions, was about the size of the Italian economy. The Italian economy could not sustain a prolonged war so the Russian economy will not be able to either. It is interesting, if Russia did not have nuclear weapons they would be as relevant in international affairs as Italy, probably less because at least Italy is a G7 country. 

In the meantime, NATO should stay the course and avoid a direct confrontation with Russia

The Liberal/NDP Agreement: Let's not call it a coalition. Mr. Singh was not named Deputy PM and no other NDP MP has been named to cabinet. This is exactly what they say it is, an agreement to vote for confidence motions, budgets and other money bills, until 2025. However, make no mistake, if the Liberals run into some prolonged political trouble between now and then the NDP will break the deal. 

The deal does have the potential to allow the government to make some serious headway in accomplishing its objectives. The same could be said for the NDP but that was going to happen anyway. The only real big difference between the two election platforms last year was the timing of accomplishing objectives. 

We will have to want and see if this deal actually has legs.

The Conservative Leadership Race: The entrance of Mr. Charest was an interesting development. He has no chance of winning of course because the Conservatives have gone full on Trump. However, he could have provided Conservative members a true alternative to Trumpism. To put it another way he could be running a campaign completely different from his opponents and showing all voters, not just Conservatives, that there are reasonable alternatives to the Liberals. Instead, he decided to run the typical Conservative leadership campaign; no real substance, half baked policy ideas and "Trudeau bad".

It should be noted however that the campaign has proven one thing. There is no longer a centre-right alternative available to Canadians at the federal ballot box. The Liberals occupy the centre-left, with a heavy lean to the left, the NDP occupy the left and far left and the Conservatives and PPC are vying for the far right. If Conservatives were smart they would be looking for a leader to take advantage of the fact no party now represents the centre-right. A party that could take advantage of that fact, siphon off some disaffected Liberals and convince some of the more reasonable right wing Conservatives to water their wine a bit could form a solid government. That is not going to happen anytime soon, if at all.

Easing COVID Restrictions: A dumb idea at this time. It probably would have been better to ease them instead of getting rid of them immediately. What governments could have done was be transparent about it. They could have indicated some benchmarks that need to be achieved before easing given measures. They have had months to develop those very benchmarks. Instead they are doing it piecemeal and hoping for the best. Oh well, if we could very well have a sixth wave and if be do it will probably manifest itself in the late Spring and early Summer, which would suck for all concerned.

A No-Fly Zone over Ukraine, are you nuts!?

I am seeing some suggestions that NATO establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The implication of that of course is clashes between Russian and NATO warplanes would be inevitable. I cannot think of anything more wrong headed in this whole mess.

I also notice that those who have been making such suggestions are of the generation that were born in the late eighties and beyond. In other words they never had the joy of living with the ever present threat of nuclear war during the Cold War. They never saw, read or heard the extensive commentary of just what a nuclear war would look like and what we could expect in the aftermath. They did not see the increasingly senile Leonid Brezhnev and Ronald Reagan with their fingers on the nuclear trigger. Hell they never saw the movie "The Day After" and had it scare the fucking hell out of them.

I understand the desire to do something to help Ukraine and its people. I share that desire but there has to be limits. By all means provide them with all of the military, financial, intelligence and humanitarian aid possible. By all means sanction the Russian leadership and wealthy back to the stone age and make life a little more difficult for its citizens. 

BUT DO NOT RISK A DIRECT MILITARY CONFRONTATION WITH A NUCLEAR ARMED STATE!! 

Everybody Needs to Take a Breath

I am seeing alot of hyperbole and hyperventilating from people about these occupations across the country. Some of the claims by their opponents are almost as out there as the "demands" of the occupiers.

First of all Canadian democracy is in no danger. If our democracy was so fragile that a few hundred yahoos could bring it down then it had serious problems before that. That is not the case. Our democracy is very resilient so we can stop worrying about it.

Second, the weakness of the "truckers" and their cause is obvious if you just take a step back. What started out as an occupation of downtown Ottawa has escalated into blockades of several border crossings with the US and word tonight is the beginning of blocking access to the Ottawa airport. Why are they escalating it? Those who agree with them say it is an indication of their increasing strength when in actual fact it is an indication of their weakness. If they were strong and if they really believe they are winning they would not feel the need to escalate. The fact they do speaks volumes.

Third, these occupations are kicking the living shit out of the CPC and Conservative provincial governments. As well, the reactions of these Parties are showing how much trouble each of them are in electorally. Take Ontario. Doug Ford must be getting an earful from his business buddies for not cracking down on the blockade of the Windsor bridge. The amount of business that is being lost by his business buddies is adding up quickly, yet he has not done anything to bring it to a close. The reason why is to do so would probably piss off much of this base and if he is so damned frightened of losing his base, five months out from an election, then his internal polling is telling him that the June election is probably a tossup or worse.

Then there is Alberta. The public polls for Jason Kenney have been gruesome since the Pandemic started and the fact he gave into the occupiers' demands probably means that the public polls are on to something. It will be interesting to see if the occupiers in Alberta will go home. If the do not then he will look even weaker than before and probably finish his chances of being reelected.

It should be noted that both the Ontario and Alberta Conservatives are first term majority governments. Both should be shoe-ins for winning a second mandate, with reduced majorities, but majorities nonetheless. They are showing many signs that they do not believe that will happen the next time they need to face the voters.

Then there is the CPC. Many of the front bench Conservatives came out in support of the occupation and now they have either gone quiet and in the case of their new interim leader she has actually begun to make some statements calling for the blockades to end. Three days ago, during the emergency debate in The House, she gave all but a full throated support to them only to make must less unequivocal statements today. Again, the increasing unpopularity of the blockades is probably being reflected in their internal polling.

The only actor in all of this that does not seem ruffled is the Federal Government. Indeed, the PM gave one of the best speeches of his career during the emergency debate a couple of days ago and he has been given the opportunity to repeat and reinforce the key points of that speech when questioned about the "disloyalty" of those two Quebec MPs. Their outbursts were probably not planned but I believe both went the PM beforehand to let him know they would speak out and the PM and his team had responses at the ready.

As these blockades drag on a critical mass of Canadians will finally decide that something needs to be done to end them, including the use of force. If the police would have used force on day three then the "truckers" would have gained some sympathy and they would have been able to present themselves as martyrs. When they are finally removed in the next week or so they cannot expect any goodwill at all from Canadians.

Also, as these occupations, particularly of the Parliamentary Precinct continue, the Conservatives and the NDP will not be able to resist the government calling a public inquiry into this whole situation. The government will be able to make it a very broad one including having Conservative Members of Parliament having to testify under oath about their involvement in the occupations. Such an inquiry could produce some rather large political bombs before ending with a very interesting report just in time for the next election in about a year.

The Unremarkable Tenure of Erin O'Toole

Back when Erin O'Toole won the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada I stated in this space that he would have to actually lead. He did not so his final fate should surprise no one.

All political parties are multi-headed beasts. The Conservatives are not unique in that sense. The key for any leader of a party is to be able to convince all of the various interests within it to pull in the same direction, to water down their wine sufficiently so that their team stays in power long enough to achieve their objectives in an incremental fashion. Mr. O'Toole did not do that.

In his defence I am not certain any leader would be able to do that with the current Conservative Party of Canada. There may be too many factions who are not willing to compromise and/or think long-term within the Party to make it a viable political party but he should have at least tried and he did not. He pandered or at least attempted to pander but that is not the same.

Also in his defence his predecessor did him no favours by completely shirking his responsibility to renew the CPC after losing in 2015. He had three years to do so and never even attempted to do it. So Mr. O'Toole took over the same party that was created in 2004 and because he always had to put election readiness at the top of his priority list, because of the minority government situation, he could not make any efforts to renew the party either

So now the Conservatives have to elect their fourth leader to face Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in about 18 to 24 months. I am not certain who it will be but he or she is going to face the same problems as Mr. O'Toole and he or she will have to find a way to lead. We will have to see if they can actually do so but as I stated in a recent post the Conservatives might have to be humiliated during the next election to finally kick start the long overdue renewal of the party and to break the logjam of competing and uncompromising interests within the CPC.

It is a Good Thing Jim Watson Decided not to Run Again

Because he would not be able to be elected dog catcher in this city.

Any chance of him winning again was scuppered by the Light Rail Transit fiasco in this city. While it is probably not all of his fault, considering all levels of government had their hands in that particular pie, it still made him unelectable even before this week.

Now the total impotence of the City of Ottawa and Ottawa Police Services, along with their mealy mouthed excuses for that impotence, would have put the final nail into the coffin of his reelection chances. Really, could he have shown any greater weakness than he has in the past few days?

I am not suggesting that the OPS take action to remove the protests as I stated in my previous post. I am suggesting that they take action to contain it. Right now, truckers are allowed to drive around virtually the entire downtown core unopposed. Why? 

Put up barricades at the corner of Wellington and Kent street to the West and where Wellington meets Elgin Street to the East. Then set up barricades at all the cross streets on Queen street to the South. (That is only two blocks south of Parliament Hill) Make certain each barricade has sufficient armed cops to man them, with orders not to fraternize with the protesters. Have actual riot police from the OPS, OPP and RCMP available to move to problem areas. If someone wants leave on foot let them but make it a one way trip and maybe escort them to the VIA Rail station. If they have left a vehicle behind they can arrange to have it shipped back to them, at their own risk and expense and after paying all of the hefty fines, towing and impound fees.

Any truck located outside of that area is to be ticketed and towed if they are breaking any local bylaws, such as parking where they should not be or breaking the noise bylaws of this city.

Of course that is not going to happen and I noticed today that our illustrious Chief of Police has indicated that the OPS will probably need the army to come in and help. Talk about passing the buck. The Trudeau government will deny that because the first place to get help would be from the Ontario Provincial Police and the Mounties but by saying the army is needed the Chief of Police can blame the Feds for the ongoing fiasco and not his incompetence.

If I am a mayoral candidate for the November municipal election part of the platform I would be running on would include a complete overhaul of the OPS senior ranks and the civilian Police Services Committee that oversees the OPS. Every cop who has the word "chief" in his or her title would be fired and every member of the committee would be replaced.

The OPS and the City of Ottawa has been a joke this past week. I have no problem with trying to make certain things do not get out of hand but that does not mean that you become completely paralyzed either. There is much that can be done to contain the protest, which is what most law enforcement organizations do as a matter of course, and which the OPS has not done.

The Police Should not Forcefully Remove the Truckers in Ottawa

As inconvenient as they are and as damaging as they are to the downtown of Ottawa the truckers should not be forcefully removed.

When indigenous people blockaded railroads over the Trans Mountain pipeline the government did not try to bring them down by force despite the clamouring by Conservatives and their cheerleaders in the media to do just that. These truckers should receive the same consideration and I find it kind of ironic that the same people who were preaching restraint for the rail blockade protests are screaming that force be used for the truckers.

The one thing about both protests is the protesters have no political smarts. The railway blockades went on way too long. They did not achieve the objective they were looking to achieve, instead just created badwill towards the protesters and their objective. The same is true of the truckers. With each passing day they become less and less popular and they hurt their erstwhile cause (eliminating the vaccine mandates and COVID restrictions), indeed probably making both more popular. Further they are doing damage to their other unstated objective (getting rid of the Liberal government) because it allows PM Trudeau to look strong and the connection between the truckers and the CPC becomes more noticed with each story about them. My guess is until last night there were many a gritted teeth at CPC HQ because of the slow drip of political damage to the Conservatives caused by what the truckers did and are continuing to do. 

Then word came out that Mr. O'Toole is facing a vote of confidence from his caucus so that might distract CPC HQ for a time. 

Now this protest is just going to go on until the truckers get bored and they drift on back home. (Assuming they can find the fuel to get home). If the organizers would have had any kind of political smarts they would have had their big rally on Saturday, after the big lead up during the preceding week, declared victory and gone home in an organized fashion. They could have organized triumphant gatherings on the way home from supporters to give the impression of momentum for their cause. Thankfully, the organizers are not that smart.

Like the railway blockades the truckers protest in Ottawa will be ancient history before the end of the month and the only thing they will have achieved is an increase in support for vaccine mandates and other public health measures and the further erosion of the CPC as a viable alternative to the Liberals in the eyes of most Canadians, particularly those Canadians that live in the big cities and their suburbs. The very voters the Conservatives need if they ever hope to win power again.

The Liberals need to Win the Next Election in a Landslide

As an avowed liberal this statement could be dismissed as partisanship on my part but I am in earnest.

Although I generally support the Liberals I do know that for our system of government to be effective the governing party needs to be challenged by an effective opposition. It is the only way to guarantee that the governing party will remain honest, competent and that it will continue to work for the greater good. Unfortunately, that has not been the reality for quite some time and it has really been lacking since 2015. In reality the current federal government has been governing virtually unchallenged, despite being a minority government for over two years. And to any Dippers reading this and saying the NDP "forced" the government to develop and implement all of the COVID economic support measures you are flat wrong. There might be some evidence to support the idea that the NDP convinced the government to sweeten the CERB pot but that is about it. The rest all came from the government and the public service that supports it and no amount of historical revisionism will change that fact.

The ineffectiveness of the Conservatives is so glaringly apparent that they had to resort to supporting an antigovernment protest that was organized and dominated by white-supremists and neo-Nazis. Every prominent member of the CPC caucus, including the current and maybe future leadership of the Party, expressed support for them even when it became apparent leading up to Saturday just where the protests were heading. So when they went where they were expected and had the added bonus of them desecrating the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, the War Memorial and the statue of Terry Fox these same Conservatives had to play down their support and look to their cheerleaders in the media to try to redirect people from those events. Crucially however, these Conservatives and their media cheerleaders did not condemn, or disavow the protesters, instead making mealy mouth statements about "bad apples" amongst the protesters.

If you are a Conservative supporter or a member of the Party I really have to ask if the current leadership and party establishment, which condoned the protesters weekend behavior, really represents your values? I know that for many Conservative supporters it does not because I personally know more than a few Conservative supporters who have expressed their concerns. So what are you going to do about it?

I would suggest you do what the Liberals did. From 2006 until 2015 the Liberals did not have an answer for Stephen Harper and in 2011 they were humiliated. That humiliation turned out to be a blessing in disguise because it finally allowed the Party to toss the old Liberal establishment over the side and enter the 21st Century with new leadership and purpose. The result is they came roaring back and they have dominated the Federal political scene for over seven years. The same thing has to happen in the Conservative Party. The old establishment is ideologically bankrupt, without any principles or a unifying ethos. It may stumble into power at some point in the future but if it does it will be like the conservative governments of Ontario and Alberta, so ideological that they would probably not survive another election. For the long-term success of the conservative movement in this country that movement needs to be taken back from the ideologues. Reasonable conservatives, and there are many out there, need to reassert themselves into Canadian politics. 

The best way to do that is for the CPC to be humiliated in the next election. It needs to be reduced to less than 100 seats, although less than 75 seats would be ideal. Such a humiliation would destroy the current Conservative establishment and provide an opportunity for reasonable conservatives to reassert themselves. There is no guarantee that they would be successful but I can tell you now that reasonable conservatives will never again come out on top as long as the current Conservative establishment holds sway.

Something similar has to happen to the NDP. Their current leadership is useless. It is interesting that the path that took them to being the Official Opposition began when they were reduced to non-party status in 1993. It took hard work and dedication by the NDP to rebuild itself and its brand to the point where they displaced the Liberals as the Opposition. It was quite an achievement but they have lost their way since then and again, I believe, only something really dramatic will motivate them to alter their current useless path. If the NDP were reduced to 10-15 seats it would probably be good for them in the medium to long term.

The Bloc and the PPC can just go away. They serve no useful purpose.

Of course, none of this is going to happen. All of the parties will stumble along on their current paths for the foreseeable future and we can only pray that our government will continue to have the internal discipline to remain honest and competent without an effective opposition.

Incompetence and Fear are a Potent Mix in Politics

Watching the Conservative Party of Canada provide aid and comfort to the ever decreasing and increasingly desperate antivaxxers in Canada I cannot help but think that they could have avoided all of the problems they have been having if they were competent, if they would show a little courage and if they would think past the next round of polling from the public pollsters.

None of this has happened and the result is they cannot gain any traction against a government that is getting longer in the tooth with each passing week. 

The simple fact is the majority of Canadians support the measures that have been taken by governments to bring COVID under control and return to a semblance of pre-COVID normalcy. Unfortunately, there is a small and ever decreasing minority of Canadians who disagree with these measures and the gap is not even close. Over 80% of Canadians are double vaxxed, the number who have three shots is in the 70% range and both are increasing. Therefore, the number of antivaxxers is less than 20% and that diminishes on a daily basis. So which group has the Conservative Party hitched its wagon to? The smaller one of course. *Face palm*

It has got to the point where they are actually offering overt support for a protest that started out as an "antivaxxer" protest but is quickly morphing into an antigovernment, white supremist protest. If some of the more extreme elements of these protesters are able to voice their positions and they are in any way connected to the CPC that party will turn off voters in all of the parts of the country they need to have any hope of gaining power, namely the major cities and their suburbs. If the protest becomes violent, like some fear, then that would be even worse news for the CPC. Their only saving grace would be the compliant media which will attempt to shield them from the worst fallout.

So, why are the CPC doing this? It does not take a genius political operative to figure out that going against the opinion of the vast majority of Canadians is not a winning political strategy.

One reason maybe the CPC brain trust just cannot do simple math, although I do not believe that. What I believe is the CPC is following the strategy that they have been following since 2006. Keep your base happy and energized and then try to convince enough non-aligned voters to vote for them. It worked in 2006, 2008 and 2011. It has not worked since then but they have not changed their strategy to account for the new reality. That is the incompetence.

The fear is the Peoples Party of Canada. In order for the 2006-2011 strategy to work the CPC has to keep its base intact. The PPC is threatening that with their simple-minded message. Crucially, the antivaxxers have decided that they trust the PPC over the CPC to stick to the message. The result is the CPC has to attempt to win them back.

That presents a very high risk of alienating the majority of Canadians. You cannot alienate the vast majority of voters and expect to win an election. I believe there are a few people in the CPC that see this but the combination of fear and incompetence amongst the real power brokers in the party prevents them from changing their approach. 

Senator Manchin is a feature not a bug

I keep seeing stories and comments about the holdup of several very important bills in the US Senate because of Senator Manchin. That is, just this one Senator, representing a rather small state, is holding up many important bills. Many commentators conclude that such a situation proves that the US system is broken.

I disagree. The system is working exactly how it was designed. As I have stated before the men who created the United States purposely created it so that its federal government would be weak. They were all frightened that one of their number would set themselves up as a king so they created a system to prevent that.

It worked for a time when the American ruling class were all pulling in the same direction but when that changed the system was helpless to prevent the country from tearing itself apart, leading to a long, bloody and painful civil war.

That national trauma lead to the ruling class again agreeing on the direction of the country, with the only disagreements being on how to move in that direction. Beginning with Ronald Reagan that agreement began to break down until the US finds itself in a situation where the ruling class and American society has broken into two distinct, mutually hostile factions. 

One of the results of that is what is happening in the US Senate. 

I do not know for certain what is going to happen in the US but I would remind you that the last time the US split as badly as it is splitting now it lead to war. That may not happen this time because the split is not confined to definable states but then again that might just mean that if war does break out it will be a messy and confusing one.

Are Humans getting dumber?

I recently saw a summary of a movie called "Idiocracy". It came out in 2007 and its basic premise is a person from that year gets frozen and is thawed out in 2507. The world he finds is one where human intelligence has regressed to the point where starvation is rampant because farmers are watering their crops with Gatorade, because it is superior to water because it contains electrolytes. The 21st Century guy is not very bright in the movie but he is a freaking genius compared to the rest the population so he becomes a hero and saves the day.

It seems like a silly movie and I have no desire to actually watch it but it does raise the question contained in the title to this post.

Almost everything about humans indicate that we should not have survived, let alone thrived, in the Darwinian competition that is the natural world. We are smaller, weaker and slower than almost every other predator out there. As well, we have small teeth and claws, barely suitable for inflicting harm on our own species let alone inflicting harm on those creatures that provide us with the sustenance to stave off starvation. 

Of course, evolution solved that problem by giving our species big brains and the cognitive abilities to go along with it. With those we overcame our physical limitations and conquered the world. We did not do this all at once. It took 10's of thousands of years and I would bet that along the way humans, both individuals and groups numbering in the hundreds or thousands, paid for lapses in intelligence by being denied the ability to pass their genes on to the next generation. In short the constant threat of death to our pre-historical ancestors made it necessary to continue developing their brains, their cognitive abilities and acquire the new skills that these allowed to happen. 

So thousands of years later here we are at the top of the food chain. If one of us is eaten by another predator it is always the result of an accident as opposed to a successful hunt of that human by that predator. Our gaining control of many natural processes or our ability to predict many of those that we cannot control has reduced the dangers of large numbers of us being wiped out by some natural disaster. There are exceptions to that as the COVID pandemic indicates but things like that are becoming an exception as opposed to an every present threat. So without the constant threat to our lives will our species continue to make the necessary adaptations to survive and considering the only adaptation that our species perfected was to increase our intelligence and cognitive abilities the question becomes will our species continue to do that?

I do not know the answer to that question and although many would say yes because of what we are seeing in the world today I would remind then of one thing. If you take the intelligence of all humans and plotted it on a graph it would look like a bell curve. That is, in general, there there is the same proportion of people with below average intelligence as there are with above average intelligence. So, there have always been stupid people around the only change now is there are more avenues for stupid people to demonstrate their stupidity. 

However, we cannot forget that a species only survives if it can continually adapt to the world around it. If it does not adapt it dies. The corollary to that is if the world around the species is no longer a threat to it then the need to adapt is reduced and the species may stagnate or regress. We do not know for certain if that is true because no species has ever accomplished that feat but it is a logical extension of the Theory of Evolution.

While it seems that we are getting dumber as a species that could just be a by-product of the information revolution we are currently experiencing giving the less intelligent among us equal access to the communications tools. It could be skewing our perceptions. However, we cannot discount the idea that our species is stagnating or even regressing as a price for our success at taking over the world.

Our Species is in a Race. Can we win?

There is no denying that the human species is altering the biosphere of the planet. It is not just climate change. We are also responsible for the increasing deforestation of our planet, the reduction of biodiversity, changing the composition of the atmosphere and the emptying of our oceans of wildlife while filling them up with pollution of all descriptions.

Most thinking people know this to be true and many of them have decided that we are not going to stop so we need to develop ways to adapt to the negative impacts of the changes that we are creating. They are probably right. The world is currently dominated by us and the animals and plants that we have domesticated and that is not going to change. Indeed, it will become more acute as wilderness is reduced to areas of the planet that are specifically protected by governments, such as national parks.

So the question then becomes how quickly are we going to be able to adapt to the changes in the biosphere? So far we are keeping up. That is probably because the changes to the biosphere, while substantial, are happening at a rather slow pace. As long as it stays that way our species, in its genius, should be able to adapt. Certainly there will be local disturbances that will cost lives and destroy livelihoods but our species and our civilization will go on.

The big concern however is the fact our biosphere is a system and like all systems if the pressure on it becomes too great it collapses. All systems have a breaking point and if the biosphere reaches that breaking point the impacts will come at us fast and I highly doubt that we will be able to adapt as well as we are currently adapting. The results could be catastrophic.

Of course, that leads to the question of how far away are we from that breaking point?

Some say a couple of decades. Others say much longer but no one knows for certain. 

I do not harbour any delusions that I have the answer but I do know that we are part of the biosphere that we are changing and that we are changing it without knowing ahead of time what the impacts of those changes will be. We do not know whether a certain action will just result in the extinction of yet another species or be that action that tips the balance and leads to the collapse of the biosphere. 

In short we are blindly conducting an experiment with a very volatile system, hoping that we will be able to clean up any mess we make and hoping that we do not blow up the lab in the process. I do not believe that such a situation is tenable in the long-term.

The Conservative Attack on the Government over Inflation

An event that should surprise no one, inflation has spiked as the world economy recovers from the worst of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. As they become normalized people are doing some of the things they did before the pandemic shut everything down. That release of pent up demand and the continuing impacts of the pandemic on global supply chains has caused inflation to jump.

Every economist or economics organization that does not have any skin in the political game has stated that the inflation will be transitory and we should believe them. As I stated this was predicted months ago and the one factor that contributes to run-away-inflation, wage growth, does not exist. Indeed, wage growth pretty much stopped after the pandemic hit the world and it is still dead. If that remains the case until this current bout of inflation decrease (look for that to happen early in the new year) then inflation will not be a problem. In fact, I would suspect that deflationary pressures will be the problem we need to worry about, pressures that will be made worse by the current efforts of some politicians and their cheerleaders in the media in talking up inflation.

The most interesting thing about the Conservative attack on the government over inflation is their statements that it is caused by overspending of the government. Some may just dismiss this as their usual attack on government spending. After all, Conservatives only believe governments should spend money on buying votes and to provide tax cuts to big business and the wealthy. Any other kind of spending is opposed as a matter of political faith.

The problem for Conservatives is the economic consensus was drifting away from this point of view before the pandemic hit us and then it virtually disappeared afterwards. I am still amazed that after the government announced the 2020 budget deficit was almost $350 billion and that the government debt had topped the $1 trillion mark the reaction of Canadians was a collective shrug. I am no deficit hawk but even I experienced some sticker shock at seeing those numbers. However, a broad cross-section of Canadians did not see a problem and in fact appreciated the spending of the government in supporting them during the pandemic.

That is bad news for the Conservatives. They are still married to austerity and to have Canadians generally ignore and maybe even agree to government spending is an existential threat to their long-term electoral fortunes. The two Conservative governments that have followed the austerity route, in Ontario and Alberta, are both in trouble, although part of that is also their handling of the pandemic. However, it should be noted that the popularity of both of these governments was dropping before the Spring of 2020 because of their very unpopular fiscal policies.

I have stated in this space before that the Conservative Consensus on government spending and finances has been breaking down for some time and I stated the pandemic seems to have accelerated that breakdown. I am certain that some in conservative circles are seeing the same thing and they are looking for something to at least decrease the rate of that breakdown if not completely reverse it. 

That is the reason why Conservatives are blaming inflation on government spending. They do not really care that Canadians maybe spending more for goods and services. They care about the central economic plank of their ideology being eroded away and their increasingly desperate efforts to at least slow it down. Personally, I do not believe they will succeed. The momentum away from the Conservative Consensus had reached a point of no return before the Spring of 2020 and it is probably unstoppable by now. 

Some Thoughts

I have observed a few things over the last few weeks which I will briefly write about.

The whole Kyle Rittenhouse situation demonstrates that the acceleration of the decline of American society, which began in 2000, has not slowed up despite the results of the last US federal election. I have stated in this space before that it took many decades for the decline of the Roman Empire to reach a point of no return but the US has done it in about two. There is no coming back. The decline will continue until some external pressure, such as the rise of China, climate change hitting critical mass, automation hitting critical mass or a combination of all three leads to the inevitable fall. I do not know what that fall will look like but I believe I will live long enough to find out.

The COP26 talks pissed off both the climate change deniers and the climate change extremists, which probably means that they got it right. I know that the extremists would like to see revolutionary change but that kind of change always leads to a backlash, which always leads to a loss of momentum towards the goal they want to achieve. And that is what we should be trying to achieve. Maintain and increase the momentum towards change without generating a serious backlash. As well, I have noticed some deniers have changed tack and stated that we need to focus on adapting to climate change instead of trying to prevent it. This is a convenient but self defeating argument. It is true that we do need to adapt to climate change because we were too slow to prevent it. However, that does not mean we can just focus on that while continuing to spew GHGs into the atmosphere. The simple fact is the climate will change faster than we will be able to adapt if that happens. We need to do both.

Inflation has reared it ugly head again but it is not nearly as bad as some would have us believe. It was always going to increase because it was always going to be part of the bounce back of economic activity once the worst of the economic impacts of COVID-19 were behind us. Many experts, who do not have any skin in a political game, have stated it will be transitory until a new equilibrium is attained in the economy. That will not stop some politicians to hype it up for political gain.

COVID-19 is here to stay. We will not eliminate it from the world. The only way that is going to happen is for it to mutate itself out of existence. That is possible but it is also possible that it could mutate itself into some much worse than what we have seen in the last couple of years. We are going to have to live with it. Many of the changes in our lifestyle that we have implemented in that last two years will be permanent and I believe that the COVID vaccine will become like the flu shot, a regular occurrence. The health care systems of the industrialized world are going to have to make the necessary adjustments to being able to handle this new reality without being paralyzed. The idea that all other medicine has to stop to deal with COVID outbreaks is preposterous. The only positive in this is COVID will probably become less deadly to most of us because most of us are fully vaccinated and we will take the boosters when they are available and when medical experts indicate we should. The same cannot be said for anti-vaxxers but I just cannot muster up any concern about that. If they want to take that risk then sobeit, they can live with the consequences.

Jean Chretien is wrong

I have nothing but respect for PM Chretien. I believe he was a great PM and I worked for his government back in the 90s. However his assertion that PM Trudeau should be consulting with the old Liberal guard is flat wrong.

The old Liberal guard had no answer for Stephen Harper. They barely beat him in 2004 and then went on to lose three elections after that, including being reduced to the third party in Parliament in 2011. Yes, for 2004 and 2006 they had to deal with the Sponsorship Scandal but it was also the old guard that got the Liberals into that mess in the first place. 

If the old guard would have still been in charge in 2015 it is highly likely that Stephen Harper would have hung on to government for at least a couple more years if not longer.

I have stated many times in this blog that Justin Trudeau does not receive enough credit for renewing and reviving the Liberal Party of Canada in the three short years he was leader of it, before the 2015 election. He did so by ruthlessly tossing the old guard into the dust bin of history, to the hatred of some of them to this day. The results speak for themselves. Yes the Harper government in 2015 was long in the tooth and Canadians wanted a change but Canadians still have to like the alternatives presented to them before they will make that change. Justin Trudeau represented that change and he did it by bringing the Liberal Party into the 21st Century and by bringing in new blood and new ideas. 

The time of the old Liberal guard is long past. So far past that some of them have become Conservatives. Remember I used to work for them and even I can see this reality. Consulting with them would be a step backwards.

The Continued Inferiority Complex of French Quebecers

Quebec has alot going for it. It is the second largest province by area and population in the country. Its levels of education is among the highest in the country. It has resources to burn and it has access to the outside world through one of the longest rivers in the world.

You would think that with all of those advantages that the people or Quebec would have a much broader view of the world and would not be so damned provincial. And yes, with the exception of a few pockets in and around Montreal Quebecers are probably the most inward looking people in the country.

I can understand this to a certain extent. When I was born Quebec was dominated by a minority English speaking elite that exploited the French majority for their own benefit. Those benefits never reached the French majority. 

That began to change soon after I was born and the majority French were successful in throwing off the yoke of the English elite and taking control of their own province and they did it with next to no violence. It really was an astounding achievement.

Which brings up the question of why French Quebecers have not shown the confidence in themselves that would come from such an achievement. There is no sign of it. If you speak to some francophone Quebecers you would think that nothing has changed in the last 60 years, that les anglais are still plotting to reverse the progress they have made.

It is a preposterous notion. It is true that Quebec is 5 million French people in a sea of almost 400 million English people. However, Americans do not care about Quebec. Many of them would not be able to find it on a map. They are not an active threat, although like the rest of Canada, Quebec does have to push back against American culture in order to maintain its distinctiveness, but this is just a function of the sheer size of the US population and the dominance of the US on the international scene. As for English Canadians, there are no evil anglos, sitting in offices in Toronto and other places in Canada, twirling their mustaches, and planning the subjugation of French Quebecers.

So why are French Quebecers still so damned afraid of losing their identity?

The reason is the English elite has been replaced by a French elite and it is in their interests to keep ordinary Quebecers in fear for their identity. Just look at the ruling class in Quebec. Politicians of ALL stripes, the media, business moguls and academics all still claim that the French identity is fragile and in constant threat of being overwhelmed. They do this of course for the same reasons other politicians use identity politics, to cover up the fact that they are exploiting ordinary French Quebecers and to cover up the fact that Quebec is probably the most mismanaged political jurisdiction in Canada, and in the top 10 mismanaged jurisdictions in North America.

Simply put Quebecers threw off one parasitic elite only to be saddled with another one. The result is Quebec is a perennial poor province in relation to its population, education levels and natural gifts. Government services are below the national average in quality, again despite its many advantages. 

Some Quebecers are noticing, which is why there has been a rise in the use if identity politics in the province in recent years. However, the Quebec elite have a problem of not being able to kick around the English any more, which is why they have begun to target immigrants, particularly those of other cultures and religions.

It really is too bad. Quebec could be a power house in this country but it is being held back by an elite that sees political and economic value in perpetuating that process and a population that is unable or unwilling to look outside of their little bubble. As long as that remains the reality Quebec and it people will never reach their full potential.

A Shot Across the Bow?

Yesterday a bunch of prominent Conservatives all posted the same anti-carbon tax tweet. Many commentators believed that this was directed at the Liberals but in fact I believe it was directed at Erin O'Toole.

The simple fact is he lost an election to the HATED Justin Trudeau, even losing a couple of seats in the process. There is internal tension within the party as a result as they try to figure out why they lost. The reason is simple and obvious and you would know what it is by reading some of my previous posts. This figuring out what went wrong is causing various factions within the party to jockey for position so that they can influence policy and election planning for the next go round in 18 to 24 months.

It would seem one of those factions still believes that eliminating the carbon tax is the way to go and they are letting Erin O'Toole know this because he has accepted the need for one, a watered down carbon tax but a price on carbon nonetheless.

The Conservative loss is going to test Mr. O'Toole's leadership. Before the election he was an untested leader and the party was not going to replace him. Now he has been tested and found wanting. He will be struggling to hang onto his job and for that he is going to have to find allies within the Party. Many of the factions in the party will be putting forward their conditions for providing their support and it would appear that one of those factions did just that, in a very public way, yesterday.

It is still an open question of whether Mr. O'Toole will stay on as leader or be pushed out. If he succeeds in keeping his job then it will be because he managed to "buy off" enough of the different factions within the party. Of course we will not know which ones he managed to buy, the internal logic of the deals and how they will impact party policy until the next election. However, if history is a guide, Mr. O'Toole will probably still have the same issues he had during the last election. Different factions, with positions in opposition with each other, expecting him and the party to satisfy their demands. 

The Liberals will have a much tougher time next time

I largely walked away from the election about half way through. When Justin Trudeau ended the third week by taking a day off, despite the pundits and the pollsters saying he was losing, I knew that the election was pretty much in the bag. What happened after that would not and did not change that outcome. 

The aftermath has been predictable as well. Both Mr. Singh and Mr. O'Toole are on the hot seat and it is an open question of whether either will still be the leaders of their respective parties in the new year. My guess is that Mr. Singh will survive. The NDP does not have a history of eating its leaders and they have been accepting mediocrity since before I was born so he will probably be OK. Mr. O'Toole has a 50/50 chance. The revelation about him double-dipping on his housing allowance is just the thing that can be used to turf him. Keep an eye on that. His only saving grace is there is no obvious choice to replace him. Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney have both shit the bed in their respective provinces, none of the current CPC front bench are worth a damn and there is no outsider who has the stature to be able to convince Canadians to vote for them as PM just months after winning the leadership.

The Liberals won again but it is only going to become tougher from here on out. The simple fact is the next time we go to the polls Justin Trudeau and the Liberals will have been in power for around eight years and they will be going for their fourth straight mandate. As I have stated here many times governments have life spans. Usually around the eight year mark the desire for change becomes very high and voters begin to look seriously at the alternatives. If they can live with that alternative they make the change. The Liberals will be in that situation the next time we go to the polls. While it is not guaranteed that Canadians will want to make a change it could be a strong possibility. 

The problem for the Party that would replace the Liberals is they are going through a serious identity crisis. Are they the hard-right populist party that the West wants them to be or the more moderate conservative party that central Canada wants them to be? How do they satisfy their social conservative supporters without alienating moderate voters who do not want to even talk about their issues? They are going to have to figure that out. However, do not believe for a second that their problems automatically eliminate them from contention. Mr. O'Toole tried to paper over these conflicts but he did a lousy job of it and Canadians were not ready for change anyway. The next time the situation will be different and either Mr. O'Toole or his replacement could be more convincing at hiding the Conservatives' inner conflicts. Mr. Ford became Premier of Ontario because there was a strong desire for change and he managed to appear non-threatening. That was the strategy that Erin O'Toole attempted this time without success but there is no guarantee it will not work the next time, assuming they try to repeat that strategy again.

This is not to say that the Liberals will lose the next election. However, I would point out that the outcome of this election was never in doubt regardless of what the pollster and pundits were saying. The only question at the beginning of this election campaign was whether the Liberals would win another minority or win their much sought after majority. That question never changed. The next time the question will be can the Liberals win a fourth straight mandate? I do not have an answer but I do know that it is possible that the answer could be no.

I am Constantly Reminded of Why I Really Do Not Like Politics

Believe it or not I really do not like politics. For me it is like a drug, an addiction that I have tried to kick in the past without success. I guess if you are going to be addicted to something politics is better than drugs or alcohol but it still sucks sometimes.

The latest reminder is the PM going on holidays on Truth and Reconciliation Day and the media making a big deal of it. It is patently stupid on their part on so many levels but it further indicates how far modern politics has fallen. There was a time when politics meant something, big issues were debated and decided upon, and the bullshit that we have been seeing for the past few days never saw the light of day. Now politics is all about the bullshit and the important issues are ignored.

This is not just a thing with the current PM. We see it everywhere and no political figure is spared the BS. Andrew Scheer was a terrible candidate for PM and the policy ideas that his Conservatives produced for the 2019 election were retrograde in the extreme. However, what did we talk about ad nauseum during that election? The fact he did not actually pass a real estate licencing exam and the fact he was an American citizen. Both were interesting things to know about him and I would say they were relatively important as well but not dominate-two-weeks-of-the-damned-election-campaign important. They should have been one or two day stories, tops and then we should have been talking about policy again.

This past Federal election was not as bad as previous ones. At least when Mr. O'Toole tripped up it was because he could not settle on a final policy decision around gun control. That deserved all of the attention it received because it was a policy issue, which is what election campaigns should be about. Still, that discussion of policy never ventured past the superficial and there was still way more attention being paid to process than policy for the election campaign to be useful.

I am old enough to have seen when politics was different and that is when I became hooked on it. At that time politics was actually kind of fun. I could have thoughtful, in depth debates with people who disagreed with me without them calling me names or questioning my intelligence, the legitimacy of my birth or suggesting I was a man lacking certain man parts. Hell, I could have these debates and then have a beer with my debating partner afterwards, where we would piss each other off talking about hockey. Those days are gone and we are left with the cesspool that we all now swim in.

Of course, our society is the worst for it and I believe that eventually this debasement of politics will have some real world impacts that will surprise alot of people when it finally happens and/or put all of us in a pile of shit from which we will not be able to escape. (Runaway climate change, I am looking in your direction.)

The blame for this can be put squarely on the shoulders of those who would govern us and those that attach themselves to them. As has happened many times before throughout history the ruling class (politicians, journalists, the influential wealthy, the bureaucracy) have lost touch with those that they would rule with the predictable results. They are all so engaged in one big, incestuous circle jerk that they cannot see what is actually happening in the world around them. They have absolutely failed in their duty to those that they claim they have the right to govern. History has shown that such a situation cannot last indefinitely. In the extreme cases that ruling class is completely swept away, sometimes losing everything including their heads. 

This time will not be any different. I have written in this space many times about the triple challenges of automation, climate change and the rise of China and how they are going to change the world we live in now. If politics were being done right our rulers would be tackling these issues with more gusto, energy and thought than they are now. But politics is not being done right so when the impacts of these changes really begin to be felt by ordinary people they are going to find that their rulers are completely unequipped to help them deal with them and those ordinary people might be convinced that they need to replace the ruling class. (Note this does not mean a change in government but a change in how we are governed.)

I may live long enough to see a revolution in the West. I believe there is a very good chance one will happen, or at least begin, in my lifetime. Maybe when that happens politics will become fun again.

Delusional Dippers

During the election campaign I found myself in an argument with some NDP partisans. These are the "NDP or bust" types who believe that the NDP deserves to govern just because the Conservatives and the Liberals have been governing for so long it is now the NDP's turn, regardless of how Canadians vote. Naturally they are all supporters of Proportional Representation because they believe it will make the NDP the kingmakers in every election. They are wrong of course. Right now our politics is geared towards the FPTP voting system. If we change that our politics will also change which will lead to a change in the Canadian voting patterns. That is the first delusion of these Dippers. I have written extensively on this and I will not repeat it here.

I discovered a second delusion among this group during the election. Essentially they believe that if the Conservatives would have won the most seats in the election but not a majority the Liberals could still govern. Their theory was that in such a situation Justin Trudeau would still be PM so he could stay in that position, even though the Liberals had less seats, by convening the House and having a confidence vote. The NDP would support them and things would go on as if no election really took place.

Their argument is technically true. Justin Trudeau is the PM and if the Liberals would have lost the election on Monday he would still be the PM unless he resigned. In the extreme, if a sitting PM were to be crushed he could technically not resign, convene the House and see if he could gain its confidence., lose that vote and ask the GG to drop the writ again.

However, all of that goes against 150+ years of Parliamentary convention in this country. Simply put, which ever political party wins the most seats in the House earns the right to form a government and seek the confidence of the House. This time it was the Liberals but if it would have been the Conservatives then Mr. Trudeau would have resigned and Mr. O'Toole would be on his way to forming a government. When the time came in a few weeks they would seek the confidence of the House and Mr. Singh, who has already said that we would be able to work with a Conservative government, would have probably voted confidence in that government.

All of this was denied by these delusional Dippers. It is was a pretty convenient argument for them though. If Mr. Trudeau did not go against 150+ years of Parliamentary convention and the Conservatives formed a government, with the NDP voting confidence in that government in the House, then Justin Trudeau would be the reason why all of the regressive policies of the Conservatives being implemented, not the NDP, because he did not exercise his right to seek the confidence of the House. It is very twisted logic but it goes back to Jack Layton's role in the destruction of the child care agreements and the Kelowna Accords in 2006. They become really prickly if you bring this up.

The more insidious part to their argument is if Mr. Trudeau would have done what they suggested it would have set up a 2011 scenario for the Liberal Party in the subsequent election. I am certain that such considerations did not come into play in their arguments. (If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you.)

All of this was based on the third delusion that the NDP would gain win more than 30 seats, as the polls were saying they would at the time. That was not going to happen and it never was going to happen. The pollsters always overestimate the NDP support during the writ period. Simply put, take the average poll estimate for the NDP and subtract three and you will get the actual number they will receive on e-day. That is exactly what happened. So if Mr. Trudeau would have lost the election and tried to hang on he would have needed more than the support of the NDP to maintain government. He would not have received it.

Of course, their Trudeau defying 150 years of convention gambit is not really a delusion. They know the reality. The argument was calculated to provide cover to any role the NDP had in implementing a Conservative agenda and to set up a 2011 scenario. 

In short, they were playing political games. I have no problem with that. They are acting like all of the other partisans for political parties.

However, as I have stated before my problem is with the sanctimonious self-righteousness of their beliefs that they are still the "conscience of Canadian politics", that they do not play politics like the other parties do and that they are the only real "progressive" option for Canadians. 

None of the above is true and it has not been true for quite some time, although they still believe it is, and that is why they are and continue to be delusional.

Election 2021: The English Language Leaders Debate

Unlike me my wife is not political and I often find she is a good sounding board for hearing what ordinary people, those who do not live and breathe politics, think about the political events of the day.

Each election my wife always invites me to watch the English debate with her. That is when she becomes most engaged in elections. I always turn her down because I learned a long time ago that they are a pointless exercise but she still watches them. In most cases she watches them to the end but this time she called me and asked me what she was seeing. Like alot of other people she was having a hard time following the action because of the format and because the candidates "don't seem to saying much". After about 45 minutes she turned it off, which is the least amount time I have known her to watch a debate since we became a couple. 

As with all of the debates I asked her what she thought. I never ask her who she thought won the debate I ask her what she thought about each candidate. Usually, she gives me impressions and then asks me questions to clarify what each said. This time she could not do that because she really did not understand what was being said by the candidates.

I will spend the next few days educating her on what each party platform says. She is generally progressive so she will either vote for the NDP or the Liberals (she has voted for both in the past.)

That got me thinking about the impacts of the debate on other "ordinary voters". For many the debates are when they start to become engaged and when they begin to form an opinion of who they want to vote for. If other Canadians had the same reaction as my wife it could be bad news for the Opposition parties.

As I have stated in past posts I do not believe this is a change election. However, if I am mistaken then voters would want to be looking at the alternatives to discern if the alternatives represent the change they want. The debates are usually when they begin that process but if the debates do not allow them to do so because they were unwatchable then many of these voters will default to the "devil you know". 

I know why the moderators did what they did yesterday. Erin O'Toole screwed up both French debates in a big way, so the moderators for the English debates decided to shield him this time, to prevent any big screw-up by him. The problem with that approach is it also prevented him from presenting a viable alternative to the Liberals.

Justin Trudeau is trying to convince Canadians to give him another shot. Erin O'Toole is trying to convince Canadians to so the opposite. As voters generally do not vote for change Justin Trudeau has the easier task. All he had to do yesterday was end the evening without a major misstep while Erin O'Toole needed to impress enough people to have them consider voting for the Conservatives. Mr. Trudeau succeeded in his goal last night. I am not certain that Erin O'Toole succeeded in his.

Election 2021: The Focus on Process

I actually hate modern election campaigns. I have for quite some time. 

I am old enough to remember when election campaigns were about policies and no one was trying to parse what the release of this advertizement or the fact that a party leader was insulating himself by having press conferences in empty bowling allies meant to the election. In those elections the leaders had to know their party platform backwards, forwards, up and down because they would be questioned on them relentlessly.

That is no longer the case. No longer do we see real debate on what the parties are promising. No longer is the news talking about those policies. This could be because political parties have shown that their promises are not worth much but it is also because most political journalists are political operative wannabes. Here is a hint for all of those journalists who play at political strategist: if you were any good at it a political party would hire you. They are always looking for talented people.

I know that I am guilty of spending way too much time on process myself when I write these posts. That is because I know the difference between the policy platforms because I have read them. As well, the few people who actually read this blog have probably read them too so me talking about them would be kind of pointless.

However, let's look at them anyway.

The Liberal platform is more of the same. It essentially promises to build on what the government has been doing for the last 6 years, once we put the pandemic behind us. It is very detailed. They pack alot of information into its 80+ pages.

The Conservative platform is less precise and less detailed. Several of its key planks are what I would call gimmicks, the GST holiday being the best example. The other planks are just watered down versions of what the Liberals promise to do. It is true I am biased but really there is not much there.

The NDP platform is a typical NDP platform. Alot of good ideas but no mention of how they would implement them. 

The other platforms do not really matter because they have no chance of winning a significant number of seats, although I will say that the PPC platform is a piece of work. (And not in a good way).

Through all of this it is up to the political parties themselves to push their platforms as best they can. Through advertizing and through the local campaigns and local media, which is much less infested with political operative wannabes. 

I have detected a general decline in the living conditions of ordinary people. They have detected the decline as well because some of them have decided to do some rather extreme, but wrong headed things to reverse it, including voting for Brexit and Donald Trump. In both cases people actually harmed themselves more. The reason for this is because election campaigns in particular and politics in general has become less about policies and ideas and more about personalities, political strategy and process. Democracy and society are diminished as a result.

Election 2021: The Halfway Point

We are now almost exactly half-way through the 2021 election so what can we say about the first half?

My first thought is social media distorts reality to the extreme. The political side of it has been dominated by polls saying that the Liberals are in trouble while the Conservatives are on the rise. This of course is based off of two pollsters who release their results on social media on a daily basis, which then takes off with social media examining and analyzing every half point change with all of the effort and passion of Stephen Hawking trying to figure out the universe. This behaviour is being enthusiastically copied by the MSM who spend an inordinate amount of time talking about the "horse race" while giving the announcements by the party leaders short shrift.

The thing is the pollsters are actually all but admitting that their polls do not reflect reality. They are saying they are crap. As well, several pollsters have stated that they are not reaching all of their polling populations for a whole host of reasons, which adds further doubts to their polls. Finally most are at least hinting that people are not yet engaged in the election and they will not be for a few more days

However, the one piece of useful information I saw yesterday was from the Abacus and Leger polls. Hidden in all of the data they presented were estimates that indicated, on average, more than 40% of respondents to their surveys believe that the Liberals are going to win the election while only around one-quarter believe the Conservatives will win. So, after two solid weeks of social media and the MSM saying that the Conservatives could win this election it would appear that a very large chunk of Canadians have not received that message. I would add my usual caution about public polls but these estimates combined with the statements of the pollsters described above would seem to indicate that there is some validity in the assertion of the low level of engagement by Canadians.

Social media, the MSM and the political parties and their partisans are certainly engaged but the rest of the country? They are squeezing every last bit of pleasure they can out of the summer.

So how about the parties?

The Liberals have been running the campaign they wanted to run. This slow roll-out of their policies, culminating in the release of their full platform the day before the TVA debate was planned. The fact that they did not stray from that plan would seem to indicate that they believe they can meet their objective on September 20, despite what social media has been saying for the last two weeks. They will switch gears after today and we will see just what they are made of between now and e-day.

The Conservatives have also been running the campaign they wanted to run. Their whole strategy is to present themselves as non-threatening. Really, yesterday when the Liberals were announcing more funding and program ideas to address mental health the Conservatives were talking about puppies. Their thinking must be to say: "Hey, yes, we are going to cancel cheap daycare, allow for the privatization of health care, allow industries to continue to produce GHGs at a terrible rate and allow a whole bunch of slack jawed anti-vaxxers take us back into restrictions and lockdowns but hey we love puppies." I like puppies as much as the next guy, I absolutely love my dog, but this to the Conservatives was a serious policy announcement? This is the kind of strategy you run when you are trying to prevent your party from being crushed on election day. 

The NDP is running a typical NDP campaign. Accuse the Liberals of not being progressive enough and hope that they can win enough seats to stay relevant. Their preferred outcome is a minority government where they are the kingmakers and yes they would support the Conservatives in a minority government if it came to that. Unfortunately for them this election has become a two-way contest, so e-day could be rather disappointing when voters decide on which of the two big parties they want to govern the country.

So now we enter the second half of the election campaign. We will have three debates and the parties will focus their messaging and their campaigns. The Liberals have given themselves alot of ammo with which to convince Canadians they deserve another mandate and they may be helped by anti-vaxx protesters. As well, the Conservatives have come down on the wrong side of at least a half a dozen issues so I am certain the Liberals will begin to point that out more and more. 

Erin O'Toole is already repeating himself on the campaign trail because his platform is so thin. They are pointing to some of their most insignificant policy ideas just to have something to say on a daily basis (We love puppies!). They have been blessed with a Liberal campaign that has been busy setting up their second half so they have not yet been seriously challenged. That is about to change and you have to wonder how they will react. If they are true to form they will go personal.

I have stated for quite sometime that the ballot question is whether Canadians want a change in government or not? I still do not believe so. They may not be totally enamoured with the Trudeau government but most will also realize that the reason why we seem to be seeing the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel is because of what the Liberals have been doing for the last 18 months. As well, many will just not want to change the government after all of the upheaval we have been going through for the last year and a half. There is still half a campaign to go but at the end of it I still expect a Liberal government, with a very high probability of it being a majority government.