So the media in our country is all a flutter about the crowds that Pierre Poilievre is attracting during this run for the Conservative leadership. They breathlessly assert that this could be a sign that the Conservatives could win the next election. Hell, even some Progressive media commentators, who I find usually have level heads, are giving dire warnings about their significance.
While it is always wise never to underestimate your political opponents and it is also true that if the current Federal government lasts until 2025 (it probably won't) the Liberals will have been in power for a decade, which could lead to a strong desire for change, one should not read too much of what happens during a party leadership campaign into politics in general.
Then there are the specific arguments that we have been seeing that shows that the political class, which includes all of these "journalists" never look more than a few days out.
Mr. Poilievre is indeed drawing big crowds but he is doing it in the West, specifically BC, which always splits its votes three ways in a general election. So one-third of the BC electorate will vote for the Conservatives regardless of who leads them so it should surprise no one that large crowds come out to see him. As well, it should also be noted that many of these people who do come to see him are being bussed in from various parts of the province which would indicate that he does have support in the province but not more than his two predecessors. Finally, it will be interesting if he can attract similar crowds in the East, particularly in the suburbs.
Then there is the notion of whether having huge support of members of the Conservative Party can be translated into sufficient support amongst the electorate to win an election. More than a few commentators, who do not work for the MSM, have stated that such a feat would be an uphill climb. The simple fact is being successful at winning the leadership of a political party often does not translate into winning a general election. Just ask Erin O'Toole, Andrew Scheer, Michael Ignatieff, Stephane Dion and every leader of the NDP during its history about that. I am certain they would have some really good insight on that topic.
Some of the commentators who are stating that Mr. Poilievre could be a real threat are pointing to the red hot housing market and the fact that young people cannot afford homes anymore so that could be a real problem. Such assertions are silly on so many levels.
First, the younger generations are the most educated generations in our history. They are also the most forward looking and progressive generations. It is no coincidence that those who support right wing populism tend to be older and less educated, while more educated voters tend not to vote for them. So while they may be upset about housing prices they are also very keen on addressing climate change, before they and their children are really left holding the bag in a couple of decades. As well, most of them will not go for rolling back gay and abortion rights as many in the CPC would want. So, Mr. Poilievre's housing plans, such as they are, may appeal to the younger generations but his lack of a viable and effective plan to fight climate change and his party's turn towards hard social conservatism will turn them off completely.
Second, old people vote and young people do not. There are more young voters than old but the last three elections were decided by the 50+ voting blocks. And they are quite happy with the rise in housing prices because most of them are mortgage free, so the rise in their housing prices is pure equity for them to take advantage of as they head towards retirement.
Third, during the 2019 election I made the joke that Royal Lepage was going to win my riding because of all their signs on the front lawns in my neighbouhood. In short, three short years ago it was a buyers market and the current torrid pace in the rise of the price of houses is unsustainable in the medium to long-term. If anybody believes that housing prices will still be a hot issue during the next election they are probably wrong.
Fourth, predicting what will be the important issues during an election, months or years before said election, is impossible and anybody who says differently is full of crap. Remember folks the important issues of the 2019 election were Mr. Scheer's citizenship and whether he was completely truthful in stating he had a real estate licence and blackface. And in 2021 the big issues were the Conservatives' plans for gun control and whether protesters threw rocks or pebbles at the PM. In neither case no one predicted that those would be the issues the elections hinged on and in neither case were real issues discussed during the election so anybody who states that the next election will be about inflation or the price of houses is wrong.
Pierre Poilievre is probably going to be the next leader of the CPC. He may be able to parley that success into an election win but that is not guaranteed regardless of the crowds he is currently attracting. People who assert or suggest otherwise are out to lunch.
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