There has been many things happening in Canadian politics recently but none of them really warrant their own posts so I am just going to put them all in this one.
First, Canada is not in a recession. Yes, we have seen two quarters of negative growth, which economics defines as a recession but I have lived through four of the damned things and this does not feel like them. There is no widespread unemployment. There is no crashing real estate market. Wages are not crashing. There is none of the oppressive fear and malaise that comes with a recession. It is true that the Canadian economy is going through a rough patch and it is entirely possible that the Canadian economy could go into a real recession but the same is true of the global economy. (More on that in another post).
Second, Pierre Poilievre's reaction to the announcement of the two consecutive quarters of negative growth shows just how little political instinct and political acumen he and his team has. They sounded almost gleeful. I cannot say that I blame them. Mark Carney has been unassailable for over a year and if things do not begin to change soon Pierre Poilievre is in real danger of losing his job. However, that does not mean he should be cheering the fact the Canadian economy is going through a rough patch. If we had a media worth anything he would be roundly condemned for doing so.
Third, the Conservatives have to acknowledge the damage Donald Trump is doing to the Canada/US relationship. I realize the Conservative tend to prefer the greater integration with the US approach to that relationship, which I explained in an earlier post, but they have to begin realizing that such an approach will never be popular with the majority of Canadians as long as Donald Trump remains in office. I also realize that a sizable chunk of the CPC base actually likes Donald Trump but Mr. Poilievre could finesse that if he had any political acumen. For example, instead of gleefully cheering on the "recession" he could have stated that the policies of Donald Trump have created great challenges for the Canadian economy and the policies of the Carney government have been ineffective at addressing them. That approach might have been more impactful. As long as the Conservatives continue to ignore that giant mammoth in the room none of their critiques of the economic policies of the Carney government will be taken seriously.
Fourth, apparently Mark Carney yells at his MPs. Who knew and who cares? Mark Carney and his government have been very busy making decisions and pursuing policies that could use some real critical examination but no one is actually doing it. The Opposition parties are all grandstanding and our media is doing its usual shit of focusing on the trivial. So, just more of the same.
Fifth, the environmentalists are pissed at the Carney government because it has stepped back from some of the Trudeau environmental policies. Steven Guilbeault even resigned his seat. Of course by doing so he effectively eliminated any influence he had with the government. If he believes he will be more effective outside of government he is gravely mistaken. As well, if environmentalists think that deserting the Liberals will advance their cause you have less political acumen than Pierre Poilievre. It is a simple fact that there are only two parties that Canadians trust to govern the country, the Liberals and the Conservatives. So if the Liberals lose the Conservatives will win and environmentalist will have to sit by and helplessly watch them do to Canadian environmental policies what Donald Trump did to US environmental policies. Environmentalism has always been a "nice to have" for ordinary people when things are going well economically. If that is no longer the case then they will choose bread and butter economic issues over the environment every time. That is the case now. If there are any politically savvy environmentalists out there I hope you are encouraging your brothers and sisters to maintain the lines of communications with the Liberal government. They are still the only option for advancing environmental policies of the two real choices for government.
Sixth, Danielle Smith is the same type of federalist as Robert Bourassa used to be. That is, a transactional federalist. Some may recall that Mr. Bourassa, as the Liberal Premier of Quebec, used the threat of separation to force the Mulroney government to sign the Meech Lake Accord and then the Charlottetown Agreement. Of course, that approach came back to bite him on the ass when the failure of those two agreements cost him the government to the Parti Quebecois, lead by Jacques Parizeau, who with Lucien Bouchard came within a hair's breadth of winning the 1995 Quebec separation referendum. Ms. Smith's flirtation with separation will probably not cost her an election but it will cause chaos, which will inevitably negatively impact Alberta.
