Strategic Defeat

There is enough credible public information regarding the "peace deal" between the US and Iran to reasonably conclude that the US suffered a strategic defeat in their war with Iran.

Although the US did not unconditionally surrender, surrender they did.

The result is the United States will be generally weakened on the world stage and particularly weakened in the Middle East. As well, Iran is likely going to emerge as a great power in the same Middle East. Allowed to take full advantage of its energy wealth, as well as, collecting tolls on the energy wealth of its neighbours cannot but make them way more powerful that they are now. We will also see if they decide to formalize their security arrangement with China to increase their power even more.

Predictably Israel is trying to scuttle the agreement by violating the very first clause of the agreement. So now we will get to see if the Iranians are as strategically minded as I believe them to be or if the Israelis have found their blind spot.

Iran has the opportunity to become completely unfettered and work towards becoming the unrivaled power in the Region. All they have to do is work to implement all of the other clauses in the agreement in full. 

Yes, that would allow Israel to continue bombing Lebanon in the short term but in the medium to long-term that will become very counterproductive if the peace deal is fully implemented. To put it another way, working to implement all of the other clauses of the agreement will make Israel's actions in Lebanon irrelevant to how the power dynamic in the Middle East shakes itself out over the next few years.

Added to this, Iran working with the US to implement the agreement, without Israel's participation, is the worst case scenario for Israel. When this war started there was always the chance that Israel would suffer a strategic defeat, along with the US. However, they had the added danger of the US negotiating and implementing a separate peace with Iran, which is what the Iranians should be working towards if they have any strategic acumen. That would make the strategic defeat of Israel decisive.

This defeat at the hands of Iran will weaken the US but not as much as many anti-American commentators would like to believe. The US will still be the most power country on the planet but its influence will be sharply curtailed, particularly in the Middle East. On the other hand this defeat could lead to an existential crisis for Israel. Once a country the size of Western Europe, with a well educated population of around 90 million people, begins the realize its full potential Israel will be in mortal danger if they continue with their current policies towards their neighbours.