Big Crowds for the Conservative Front Runner

So the media in our country is all a flutter about the crowds that Pierre Poilievre is attracting during this run for the Conservative leadership. They breathlessly assert that this could be a sign that the Conservatives could win the next election. Hell, even some Progressive media commentators, who I find usually have level heads, are giving dire warnings about their significance.

While it is always wise never to underestimate your political opponents and it is also true that if the current Federal government lasts until 2025 (it probably won't) the Liberals will have been in power for a decade, which could lead to a strong desire for change, one should not read too much of what happens during a party leadership campaign into politics in general.

Then there are the specific arguments that we have been seeing that shows that the political class, which includes all of these "journalists" never look more than a few days out.

Mr. Poilievre is indeed drawing big crowds but he is doing it in the West, specifically BC, which always splits its votes three ways in a general election. So one-third of the BC electorate will vote for the Conservatives regardless of who leads them so it should surprise no one that large crowds come out to see him. As well, it should also be noted that many of these people who do come to see him are being bussed in from various parts of the province which would indicate that he does have support in the province but not more than his two predecessors. Finally, it will be interesting if he can attract similar crowds in the East, particularly in the suburbs. 

Then there is the notion of whether having huge support of members of the Conservative Party can be translated into sufficient support amongst the electorate to win an election. More than a few commentators, who do not work for the MSM, have stated that such a feat would be an uphill climb. The simple fact is being successful at winning the leadership of a political party often does not translate into winning a general election. Just ask Erin O'Toole, Andrew Scheer, Michael Ignatieff, Stephane Dion and every leader of the NDP during its history about that. I am certain they would have some really good insight on that topic.

Some of the commentators who are stating that Mr. Poilievre could be a real threat are pointing to the red hot housing market and the fact that young people cannot afford homes anymore so that could be a real problem. Such assertions are silly on so many levels.

First, the younger generations are the most educated generations in our history. They are also the most forward looking and progressive generations. It is no coincidence that those who support right wing populism tend to be older and less educated, while more educated voters tend not to vote for them. So while they may be upset about housing prices they are also very keen on addressing climate change, before they and their children are really left holding the bag in a couple of decades. As well, most of them will not go for rolling back gay and abortion rights as many in the CPC would want. So, Mr. Poilievre's housing plans, such as they are, may appeal to the younger generations but his lack of a viable and effective plan to fight climate change and his party's turn towards hard social conservatism will turn them off completely.

Second, old people vote and young people do not. There are more young voters than old but the last three elections were decided by the 50+ voting blocks. And they are quite happy with the rise in housing prices because most of them are mortgage free, so the rise in their housing prices is pure equity for them to take advantage of as they head towards retirement.

Third, during the 2019 election I made the joke that Royal Lepage was going to win my riding because of all their signs on the front lawns in my neighbouhood. In short, three short years ago it was a buyers market and the current torrid pace in the rise of the price of houses is unsustainable in the medium to long-term. If anybody believes that housing prices will still be a hot issue during the next election they are probably wrong.

Fourth, predicting what will be the important issues during an election, months or years before said election, is impossible and anybody who says differently is full of crap. Remember folks the important issues of the 2019 election were Mr. Scheer's citizenship and whether he was completely truthful in stating he had a real estate licence and blackface. And in 2021 the big issues were the Conservatives' plans for gun control and whether protesters threw rocks or pebbles at the PM. In neither case no one predicted that those would be the issues the elections hinged on and in neither case were real issues discussed during the election so anybody who states that the next election will be about inflation or the price of houses is wrong. 

Pierre Poilievre is probably going to be the next leader of the CPC. He may be able to parley that success into an election win but that is not guaranteed regardless of the crowds he is currently attracting. People who assert or suggest otherwise are out to lunch.

The Unremarkable Tenure of Erin O'Toole

Back when Erin O'Toole won the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada I stated in this space that he would have to actually lead. He did not so his final fate should surprise no one.

All political parties are multi-headed beasts. The Conservatives are not unique in that sense. The key for any leader of a party is to be able to convince all of the various interests within it to pull in the same direction, to water down their wine sufficiently so that their team stays in power long enough to achieve their objectives in an incremental fashion. Mr. O'Toole did not do that.

In his defence I am not certain any leader would be able to do that with the current Conservative Party of Canada. There may be too many factions who are not willing to compromise and/or think long-term within the Party to make it a viable political party but he should have at least tried and he did not. He pandered or at least attempted to pander but that is not the same.

Also in his defence his predecessor did him no favours by completely shirking his responsibility to renew the CPC after losing in 2015. He had three years to do so and never even attempted to do it. So Mr. O'Toole took over the same party that was created in 2004 and because he always had to put election readiness at the top of his priority list, because of the minority government situation, he could not make any efforts to renew the party either

So now the Conservatives have to elect their fourth leader to face Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in about 18 to 24 months. I am not certain who it will be but he or she is going to face the same problems as Mr. O'Toole and he or she will have to find a way to lead. We will have to see if they can actually do so but as I stated in a recent post the Conservatives might have to be humiliated during the next election to finally kick start the long overdue renewal of the party and to break the logjam of competing and uncompromising interests within the CPC.

A Shot Across the Bow?

Yesterday a bunch of prominent Conservatives all posted the same anti-carbon tax tweet. Many commentators believed that this was directed at the Liberals but in fact I believe it was directed at Erin O'Toole.

The simple fact is he lost an election to the HATED Justin Trudeau, even losing a couple of seats in the process. There is internal tension within the party as a result as they try to figure out why they lost. The reason is simple and obvious and you would know what it is by reading some of my previous posts. This figuring out what went wrong is causing various factions within the party to jockey for position so that they can influence policy and election planning for the next go round in 18 to 24 months.

It would seem one of those factions still believes that eliminating the carbon tax is the way to go and they are letting Erin O'Toole know this because he has accepted the need for one, a watered down carbon tax but a price on carbon nonetheless.

The Conservative loss is going to test Mr. O'Toole's leadership. Before the election he was an untested leader and the party was not going to replace him. Now he has been tested and found wanting. He will be struggling to hang onto his job and for that he is going to have to find allies within the Party. Many of the factions in the party will be putting forward their conditions for providing their support and it would appear that one of those factions did just that, in a very public way, yesterday.

It is still an open question of whether Mr. O'Toole will stay on as leader or be pushed out. If he succeeds in keeping his job then it will be because he managed to "buy off" enough of the different factions within the party. Of course we will not know which ones he managed to buy, the internal logic of the deals and how they will impact party policy until the next election. However, if history is a guide, Mr. O'Toole will probably still have the same issues he had during the last election. Different factions, with positions in opposition with each other, expecting him and the party to satisfy their demands. 

The Liberals will have a much tougher time next time

I largely walked away from the election about half way through. When Justin Trudeau ended the third week by taking a day off, despite the pundits and the pollsters saying he was losing, I knew that the election was pretty much in the bag. What happened after that would not and did not change that outcome. 

The aftermath has been predictable as well. Both Mr. Singh and Mr. O'Toole are on the hot seat and it is an open question of whether either will still be the leaders of their respective parties in the new year. My guess is that Mr. Singh will survive. The NDP does not have a history of eating its leaders and they have been accepting mediocrity since before I was born so he will probably be OK. Mr. O'Toole has a 50/50 chance. The revelation about him double-dipping on his housing allowance is just the thing that can be used to turf him. Keep an eye on that. His only saving grace is there is no obvious choice to replace him. Mr. Ford and Mr. Kenney have both shit the bed in their respective provinces, none of the current CPC front bench are worth a damn and there is no outsider who has the stature to be able to convince Canadians to vote for them as PM just months after winning the leadership.

The Liberals won again but it is only going to become tougher from here on out. The simple fact is the next time we go to the polls Justin Trudeau and the Liberals will have been in power for around eight years and they will be going for their fourth straight mandate. As I have stated here many times governments have life spans. Usually around the eight year mark the desire for change becomes very high and voters begin to look seriously at the alternatives. If they can live with that alternative they make the change. The Liberals will be in that situation the next time we go to the polls. While it is not guaranteed that Canadians will want to make a change it could be a strong possibility. 

The problem for the Party that would replace the Liberals is they are going through a serious identity crisis. Are they the hard-right populist party that the West wants them to be or the more moderate conservative party that central Canada wants them to be? How do they satisfy their social conservative supporters without alienating moderate voters who do not want to even talk about their issues? They are going to have to figure that out. However, do not believe for a second that their problems automatically eliminate them from contention. Mr. O'Toole tried to paper over these conflicts but he did a lousy job of it and Canadians were not ready for change anyway. The next time the situation will be different and either Mr. O'Toole or his replacement could be more convincing at hiding the Conservatives' inner conflicts. Mr. Ford became Premier of Ontario because there was a strong desire for change and he managed to appear non-threatening. That was the strategy that Erin O'Toole attempted this time without success but there is no guarantee it will not work the next time, assuming they try to repeat that strategy again.

This is not to say that the Liberals will lose the next election. However, I would point out that the outcome of this election was never in doubt regardless of what the pollster and pundits were saying. The only question at the beginning of this election campaign was whether the Liberals would win another minority or win their much sought after majority. That question never changed. The next time the question will be can the Liberals win a fourth straight mandate? I do not have an answer but I do know that it is possible that the answer could be no.

Election 2021: The English Language Leaders Debate

Unlike me my wife is not political and I often find she is a good sounding board for hearing what ordinary people, those who do not live and breathe politics, think about the political events of the day.

Each election my wife always invites me to watch the English debate with her. That is when she becomes most engaged in elections. I always turn her down because I learned a long time ago that they are a pointless exercise but she still watches them. In most cases she watches them to the end but this time she called me and asked me what she was seeing. Like alot of other people she was having a hard time following the action because of the format and because the candidates "don't seem to saying much". After about 45 minutes she turned it off, which is the least amount time I have known her to watch a debate since we became a couple. 

As with all of the debates I asked her what she thought. I never ask her who she thought won the debate I ask her what she thought about each candidate. Usually, she gives me impressions and then asks me questions to clarify what each said. This time she could not do that because she really did not understand what was being said by the candidates.

I will spend the next few days educating her on what each party platform says. She is generally progressive so she will either vote for the NDP or the Liberals (she has voted for both in the past.)

That got me thinking about the impacts of the debate on other "ordinary voters". For many the debates are when they start to become engaged and when they begin to form an opinion of who they want to vote for. If other Canadians had the same reaction as my wife it could be bad news for the Opposition parties.

As I have stated in past posts I do not believe this is a change election. However, if I am mistaken then voters would want to be looking at the alternatives to discern if the alternatives represent the change they want. The debates are usually when they begin that process but if the debates do not allow them to do so because they were unwatchable then many of these voters will default to the "devil you know". 

I know why the moderators did what they did yesterday. Erin O'Toole screwed up both French debates in a big way, so the moderators for the English debates decided to shield him this time, to prevent any big screw-up by him. The problem with that approach is it also prevented him from presenting a viable alternative to the Liberals.

Justin Trudeau is trying to convince Canadians to give him another shot. Erin O'Toole is trying to convince Canadians to so the opposite. As voters generally do not vote for change Justin Trudeau has the easier task. All he had to do yesterday was end the evening without a major misstep while Erin O'Toole needed to impress enough people to have them consider voting for the Conservatives. Mr. Trudeau succeeded in his goal last night. I am not certain that Erin O'Toole succeeded in his.

Election 2021: The Halfway Point

We are now almost exactly half-way through the 2021 election so what can we say about the first half?

My first thought is social media distorts reality to the extreme. The political side of it has been dominated by polls saying that the Liberals are in trouble while the Conservatives are on the rise. This of course is based off of two pollsters who release their results on social media on a daily basis, which then takes off with social media examining and analyzing every half point change with all of the effort and passion of Stephen Hawking trying to figure out the universe. This behaviour is being enthusiastically copied by the MSM who spend an inordinate amount of time talking about the "horse race" while giving the announcements by the party leaders short shrift.

The thing is the pollsters are actually all but admitting that their polls do not reflect reality. They are saying they are crap. As well, several pollsters have stated that they are not reaching all of their polling populations for a whole host of reasons, which adds further doubts to their polls. Finally most are at least hinting that people are not yet engaged in the election and they will not be for a few more days

However, the one piece of useful information I saw yesterday was from the Abacus and Leger polls. Hidden in all of the data they presented were estimates that indicated, on average, more than 40% of respondents to their surveys believe that the Liberals are going to win the election while only around one-quarter believe the Conservatives will win. So, after two solid weeks of social media and the MSM saying that the Conservatives could win this election it would appear that a very large chunk of Canadians have not received that message. I would add my usual caution about public polls but these estimates combined with the statements of the pollsters described above would seem to indicate that there is some validity in the assertion of the low level of engagement by Canadians.

Social media, the MSM and the political parties and their partisans are certainly engaged but the rest of the country? They are squeezing every last bit of pleasure they can out of the summer.

So how about the parties?

The Liberals have been running the campaign they wanted to run. This slow roll-out of their policies, culminating in the release of their full platform the day before the TVA debate was planned. The fact that they did not stray from that plan would seem to indicate that they believe they can meet their objective on September 20, despite what social media has been saying for the last two weeks. They will switch gears after today and we will see just what they are made of between now and e-day.

The Conservatives have also been running the campaign they wanted to run. Their whole strategy is to present themselves as non-threatening. Really, yesterday when the Liberals were announcing more funding and program ideas to address mental health the Conservatives were talking about puppies. Their thinking must be to say: "Hey, yes, we are going to cancel cheap daycare, allow for the privatization of health care, allow industries to continue to produce GHGs at a terrible rate and allow a whole bunch of slack jawed anti-vaxxers take us back into restrictions and lockdowns but hey we love puppies." I like puppies as much as the next guy, I absolutely love my dog, but this to the Conservatives was a serious policy announcement? This is the kind of strategy you run when you are trying to prevent your party from being crushed on election day. 

The NDP is running a typical NDP campaign. Accuse the Liberals of not being progressive enough and hope that they can win enough seats to stay relevant. Their preferred outcome is a minority government where they are the kingmakers and yes they would support the Conservatives in a minority government if it came to that. Unfortunately for them this election has become a two-way contest, so e-day could be rather disappointing when voters decide on which of the two big parties they want to govern the country.

So now we enter the second half of the election campaign. We will have three debates and the parties will focus their messaging and their campaigns. The Liberals have given themselves alot of ammo with which to convince Canadians they deserve another mandate and they may be helped by anti-vaxx protesters. As well, the Conservatives have come down on the wrong side of at least a half a dozen issues so I am certain the Liberals will begin to point that out more and more. 

Erin O'Toole is already repeating himself on the campaign trail because his platform is so thin. They are pointing to some of their most insignificant policy ideas just to have something to say on a daily basis (We love puppies!). They have been blessed with a Liberal campaign that has been busy setting up their second half so they have not yet been seriously challenged. That is about to change and you have to wonder how they will react. If they are true to form they will go personal.

I have stated for quite sometime that the ballot question is whether Canadians want a change in government or not? I still do not believe so. They may not be totally enamoured with the Trudeau government but most will also realize that the reason why we seem to be seeing the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel is because of what the Liberals have been doing for the last 18 months. As well, many will just not want to change the government after all of the upheaval we have been going through for the last year and a half. There is still half a campaign to go but at the end of it I still expect a Liberal government, with a very high probability of it being a majority government.

Election 2021: On the Cusp of Week Three

Week two of the campaign is coming to an end and what can we make of it?

Well, you cannot talk about week two without talking about the polls. Although, as Jackie, someone who visits this blog from time-to-time, has pointed out it is just three polling companies that are driving the polls right now. They are the three that are doing rolling polls every night and publishing their estimates the next day.

These polls have not been good news for the Liberals. Two of them are rather gruesome while the third shows the Liberals basically where they were at the end of the 2019 election. Are these polls a reflection of reality? (Probably not) Two of these polling companies have estimates that, if they were true, would result in a Conservative victory but the polling companies are still saying that their seat models are showing a Liberal minority government. Say what? I know that the Liberals have the best voter efficiency of all of the parties but what you are describing is out of this world voter efficiency. Your commentary on your own polls is out of whack and the question then becomes, why. Do you not trust your own data? (They don't) It is interesting that neither of the two polling companies that have published gruesome results for the Liberals did rolling polls in the previous two elections. However, the one that has done them since I cannot remember is showing very different results, results that would truly indicate a Liberal victory with their voter efficiency. 

So how are the parties reacting to these polls? The PM took the day off. According to the polls the proverbial wheels are flying off of the campaign bus and he took the day off. This was a planned day off, by the way, because if this would have been a last minute decision, where planned events had to be canceled, our balanced, non-biased media would have discovered that fact by now and provided their usual balanced and un-biased take on that decision. The polls have been troubling long enough to allow for planning events for today without making them look like they were thrown together at the last minute, which would also be noticed and yet he still went ahead with his day off? Over the past two weeks I have not seen any indication that the Liberals have been rattled by what the public polls are saying. They are getting on with getting on.

How about the Conservatives? Erin O'Toole is still warning Canadians about a Trudeau majority. Say what? Dude, the polls say that such a majority if off of the table and a couple of polls are saying you might actually win this thing. What are you talking about? 

As for the media and the "professional" political commentators I would just point out that a certain former Liberal operative, who will never miss an opportunity to bash Mr. Trudeau, has also said the Liberal majority if off of the table. He has not gone to the next level despite the  gruesomeness of a couple of the rolling polls. 

I know that I have been saying this for weeks if not months but modern election campaigns are driven by data. Gone are the days when some "Rainman's" political instincts were the only factors impacting political decisions. While those political instincts are still important, data and its analysis has become its equal in making political decision.

Both of the major parties have data analytics teams working for them. They are collecting and analyzing a tremendous amount of data each day, using the latest data analytics techniques and providing the two leaders with accurate snap shots on a daily basis. As an example, the polling companies doing the rolling polls are interviewing 400-500 respondents each day, from across Canada. The data analytics teams of the two parties are doing that in hundreds of ridings each day and gathering data from other sources besides. What they are telling the two parties is probably much different from what the public polls are telling us. And I think the pollsters and pundits know this which is why they are hedging on what their polls are actually saying.

Enough about polls. What how has week two gone otherwise?

The Liberals book ended their week with a couple of health care announcements. The first one was to promise to hire more healthcare workers and reduce wait times. That announcement was made in Halifax, which just had an election that revolved around those very issues. Most of rural Nova Scotia voted to change their provincial government and the Liberals went to Nova Scotia and essentially said that a Liberal government would be a willing partner with the new provincial government in achieving its key election promise. That is not flashy but it is brilliant. What was funny was that announcement was preceded by a video of Erin O'Toole agreeing with the idea of more privatization of Canada's health care system. I believe it was just a way to show the contrast between the two party positions but then Twitter put a warning label on the video, the media noticed and made it an issue. That lead to the video being viewed hundreds of thousands of times and having Erin O'Toole dodge questions about his view on privatization until he could no longer dodge them. He finally had to admit that what was said in the video is accurate, he would allow more privatization. I wonder, knowing that the Liberals realize the media is hostile towards them, if they did not plan it that way. Did they pawn the media and create what could be THE wedge issue for this campaign in the process? If they did bravo.

One final note. I noticed that the DPM has been going around the country campaigning with Liberals. She is not just sticking to her own riding but campaigning on a level just below the PM. As well, I have noticed the the Liberal Party has been allowing individual election candidates make some of the more mundane election announcements. With a hostile media that is the kind of campaign you need to have. These efforts will not be noticed by the national media but they will be noticed by the local media, which are usually much less hostile towards any of the political parties.

As for the Conservatives they have not really had a spectacular campaign so far. If the media was not pulling for them they would be nowhere. Erin O'Toole is a one man band. As well, so far he has come down on the wrong side of around a half-a-dozen issues, including admitting that he would allow more privatization of Canada's health care system. That provides plenty of material for the Liberals to use over the next three weeks and there are probably a few people in the Conservative camp wondering when the next shoe will drop.

The preliminary round of the election is over. All of the campaigns will switch gears and begin the real election this week. It should be an interesting three weeks.

Either Justin Trudeau or Erin O'Toole are going to feel very helpless during the week of September 13

As I have stated before the ballot question for the election is: is this election a change election?

I do not believe it is for all of the reasons I mention in that blog post.

However, if Canadians have decided that they want to change governments this time, and if that is the case the decision has already been made at the unconscious level, then there is nothing that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals will be able to do about it.

On the other hand if Canadians have decided that they do not want to change governments then it is Erin O'Toole who will be powerless to do anything about it.

The Erosion of Western Democracy

The reaction to the video where Erin O'Toole answers in a straight, one word affirmative to a very straightforward question of whether he agrees with more privatization of Canada's health care system has been instructional. But more on that in a minute.

I had a discussion with a friend about the rise of China in the world and I expressed my opinion that I believed that the size of its economy would overtake that of the United States in my lifetime. My friend said it is possible but he stated that it probably would not happen because China does not have a mechanism for channeling anger at the government. Therefore, if they hit serious bumps in the road the Chinese government will suffer an existential crisis and that would cause a vicious circle of lower economic output, which would cause further unrest thus deepening the political crisis, and so on.

I said that is definitely a possibility but the problem with that argument is the West no longer has a reliable safety valve for rising anger and unrest in the West either because of the increasing failure and the increasing loss of faith in western democracy so they could find themselves in the same vicious cycle. That loss of faith is caused by modern Western democracies inability to actually allow ordinary citizens to improve their lot. There is empirical evidence to suggest that my generation is worse off, economically, than my parents' generation and there is more empirical evidence that the generations coming after mine will be even worse off. We can see this coming. It is a plain as the nose on one's face but we seem to be helpless in preventing it. The reason for this is the failure of democracy.

This brings me back to the video mentioned in the first paragraph of this post. Fifteen, maybe even ten years ago, if the leader of a Federal political party would have made those statements during an election campaign his campaign would be finished. The media would have jumped all over it and they would have focused on what he said and they would stay focused on it for days. What was the reaction of the media and chattering classes to Erin O'Toole's video? They focused on Twitter flagging the video.

The Canadian health care system is a point of pride for Canadians. The vast majority of Canadians do not want it falling into private hands. Yet here is a federal politicians disagreeing with the majority and so far I have not seen any consequences.

Why? The answer is simple. The ruling class in Canada and the other Western democracies have completely lost touch with those that they rule. I include the main stream media as part of the ruling class, which is not where they should be because the media is supposed to challenge the ruling class not be coopted by it. 

So if Erin O'Toole were to become PM (he won't) and allows the introduction of further privatization in our health care system, despite the vast majority of Canadians who are against it, that would lead to a further erosion in the faith in democracy. We want to keep our health care system public, we voted, it became more private, therefore democracy does not work.

This erosion of faith will have serious consequences for the people of the West. We are already seeing it with the election of Donald Trump and his continued popularity, Brexit, the rise of far-right and neo-Nazi parties in Europe and the rise of authoritarian governments in some of the former Warsaw Bloc states. These outcomes to the failure of democracy will only get worse and Canada will not escape them.

Although PM Trudeau, President Biden and some other Western leaders are fighting a rear guard action they have been unable to restore faith in democracy and that will inevitably lead to authoritarian governments taking over current democracies, especially when the full impacts of climate change and automation start to be felt among ordinary people. With democracy failing, authoritarianism will be the only way to keep order.

Note, I am not trying to single out Mr. O'Toole. He is just another example of how out of touch our ruling class is with us. There are many more of other political stripes so he is by no means unique. The reaction to his video just demonstrates the continuing trend of our ruling class becoming further out of touch with those that they are supposed to be ruling.

The First Couple of Days of the Election

So the first three days of the election are behind us and these are my first impressions.

It is boring as hell.

The media is doing what I said they would do and pumping up Erin O'Toole and using paid pollsters to provide the "data" to "prove" he actually has a shot at winning.

As well, predictably the media and the Opposition parties screamed about the "unnecessary" election even though they had been speculating about one for months. The stated reasons for their consternation are ridiculous at all levels. 

Although my favourite is their claim that the PM only called the election because he believes he can win a majority government. What stupidity. Of course he did. That is what PMs in this country do when they are leading minority governments. I always get a chuckle out of people when they complain about politicians acting like politicians. That is like complaining about a snow storm in January. Certainly, it might make you feel better but it is a pointless exercise otherwise.

All elections outside of the regular election cycle are risky so Mr. Trudeau would not have called one unless he was confident that he could win it and win a majority government besides. I believe the media and the Opposition believe the same thing, which is the real reason for their upset.

In all likelihood the Liberals have discovered that their support is baked in. Their base is secure and not going anywhere so they only need to find seven more percentage points of support and they will achieve their objective. With their handling of the pandemic and what is probably going to be the most coherent election platform of all of the parties they should be able to achieve that. However, when the final week of the election is upon us we will see if they are successful because that is when the non-aligned late breakers will make their decision.

The Conservatives are a mess. I am not so certain that their base is as secure as it has been for the last few elections and they seem to be totally unprepared to actually fight a pandemic election. Coming out against vaccine mandates when they are extremely popular among Canadians seems counterproductive. The same is true of baldly stating that they would cancel all of the Child Care agreements with the provinces, which may include Ontario before the election is over. Perhaps Mr. O'Toole is hoping to do what Mr. Harper did in 2006 when he announced a few very unpopular policy proposals at the very beginning of the campaign and counted on voters to forget about them by e-day. It did work for Mr. Harper but he was also up against a Liberal government operating under the weight of Adscam and the Gomery Inquiry.

Their election platform document is a thin gruel of the Conservative Party's greatest hits from elections past. There is not an original thought or policy idea in the whole document. They have not resorted to the dog whistling yet but it would not surprise me when they do.

Then there was the Willy Wonka video. It was widely panned but there seems to be some school of thought that it was actually planned that way. People point to the two Kiwis that helped to get Boris Johnson elected but they seem to forget that particular election was a referendum on Brexit, which by that point was widely popular in key parts of the soon to be DisUnited Kingdom. No such issue exists for this election, except for the pandemic and the Liberals have built up a great deal of goodwill among Canadians for their handling of the health and economic impacts of the pandemic. Maybe there is some deeper strategy in that video or maybe it is just more of the same from the Conservatives who have been personally attacking and insulting Justin Trudeau since it became apparent he would become leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. At some point they may figure out that such an approach is not working and change tack. 

For the Conservatives the wild card is the other conservative parties. If they do reasonably well they are screwed. We will not know how well or how poorly they do until September 20 but it should be noted that they do not need to win seats to screw the Conservatives. They just need to siphon off enough votes from the Conservatives to cause them to lose close races against the other major parties

I am not seeing much from the Quebec media about the Bloc so I cannot say anything about them. In 2019 they were invisible until the debates so that will probably be the case again. We will have to see how Quebecers react to the debates to see just how the Bloc will impact the election.

The NDP is invisible. I suspect this election is going to be like most others and focus on the two main parties. The NDP will struggle for air time and attention. As per usual they will get more attention at the debates but I am not certain it will mean much by then. They received more attention in 2019 and they still lost half of their caucus.

The Green Party is a dumpster fire on a train wreck sitting on the deck of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Elizabeth May might win her seat but that will probably be it.

The situation in Afghanistan could have an impact but I doubt the media will be able to focus on it for the next six weeks. It will eventually be forgotten by them as they inevitably move on to something else. However, stories of some Afghans, who helped Canadian troops when they were there, being murdered by the Taliban will not be a good look for the Liberals but I doubt it would move many votes. Canadians will have sympathy for those poor souls but not enough to really motivate them to vote one way or another.

As with all elections there is room for surprises and I am certain we will have a few before it is all said and done. However, it is widely believed that the Liberals are going to win and probably win big and so far I have not seen anything that would change that belief.

To the National Post: Both Justin Trudeau and Erin O'Toole Campaigned in Alberta This Week, Updated

The front page of the National Post today was quite amusing. You could almost see the gritted teeth of all of the columnists who wrote in the paper today.

They are gritting their teeth because we saw the latest and most compelling evidence that the public polls are right in indicting that the Conservative base is eroding.

First, the fact that Mr. O'Toole made an election style campaign stop in Calgary to assure Albertans that any government lead by him would change the equalization formula. As the the leader of the only party Albertans vote for he need not have done that. It would be understood. So maybe the Conservatives' internal data analysis is saying that Albertans do not seem to be as inclined to support the Conservatives this time and that they may be looking a one of the alternative conservative parties that have popped up in that province.

The second, Justin Trudeau also campaigned in Calgary and he subtly attacked the sitting conservative premier of the province.

There are several iron laws of Canadian politics. One of them is when a leader of a party campaigns in a party stronghold it is because they believe they are in danger of losing seats there. As a corollary when the leader of a rival political party campaigns in one of your party's strongholds it is because they also believe you will lose seats and that those seats will go to his party.

I would still caution Liberals to not read too much into recent political events. We are talking politics here and things can change rather quickly. However, there is a possibility that the apparent erosion of the Alberta foundation of the Conservative base is real and that it will last through an election. If that happens the Conservatives have no chance of winning. They were only able to win the 2006, 2008 and 2011 elections because of their iron grip on Alberta and their shaking loose enough votes in key parts of Ontario. If they lose just an handful of seats in Alberta their chances of winning go down to less than zero.

I am still not convinced that the Conservative base is really eroding. I do believe that when the chips are down and Albertans are voting for real their habit of voting for the Conservatives will kick back in. However, the actions of Mr. O'Toole and Mr. Trudeau this past week would seem to indicate that the Conservatives might actually have to work for it this time. And that leads to a whole other set of questions about how the Conservatives will expend their time and resources in an election if they cannot count on the support of Albertans when the writ is dropped. But that is a question for another time. 

Update: Yes the unofficial election campaign has started and the PM will probably drop the writ before Labour Day. None of the Opposition Parties want an election because the most likely outcome is another Liberal victory, with a high probability of a Liberal majority government. That is why the Opposition Parties have demanded the Ethics Committee be recalled to review something the Liberals did even through what they did is common practice for all political parties. They are hoping that some kind of controversy will discourage the Liberals from calling an election. 

Are the Conservatives Really in Trouble?

I have stated in this space and on other blogs many times before that the public polls cannot be trusted. So when you see a whole bunch of them indicating that the Liberals have opened up a double digit lead and that the Conservatives are in the 25% range you should take that with a sizable quantity of salt.

However, I have also stated that if you want to see how things are going look at what the parties are doing and saying. In that case there would appear to be some validity to the idea that the Conservatives are watching their base erode. I saw on Twitter that the Conservatives have released a video of a whole bunch of Alberta MPs extolling the virtues of the CPC to their fellow Albertans. That is odd because Alberta is the solid foundation of the Conservative base. The rest of the base my shift somewhat but they can always count on Conservatives in Alberta to vote for them. So why are they making such a video?

A few posts back I mentioned Erin O'Toole making a video stating that any government lead by him would defund the CBC and that such a video could be an indication of the erosion of the Conservative base because it would only appeal to that base. Promising to defund the CBC will not resonate with anybody but Conservatives and in actual fact would put off more than a few non-aligned voters.

The the Alberta MPs video could be another indication of the softening of the Conservative base.

Before Liberals and other Conservative opponents become too excited it should be noted that during the 2015 election there was a great deal of evidence to suggest that Stephen Harper was facing a similar problem. In 2011, Stephen Harper spent the first half of the election campaign throwing red meat at his base before pivoting in the last half to appeal to voters beyond that. That strategy along with a strong performance by Jack Layton and a pathetic performance by the Liberals lead to a Conservative majority government. In 2015, Stephen Harper started off with the same strategy but he failed to make the pivot half-way through, instead doubling down at throwing red meat at his base in the form of a niqab ban and a barbaric cultural practice snitch line. It looked like the Conservatives would be virtually destroyed. However, when the votes were counted, on election night in 2015, it was apparent that the Conservative base remained solid.

So no one should right off the Conservatives' ability to hang onto their base during the next election. Certainly Conservatives have other alternatives that they did not have in 2015 but that does not mean they will vote for those alternatives once they find themselves behind the little cardboard screens at their voting station.

There is increasing evidence that the Conservatives are losing their grip on their base. So the next election could wind up resembling 1993 when the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada shattered into three pieces. However, it is equally probable that when the time comes habitual Conservatives voters could go home to the CPC, maybe not being too happy doing it but doing so nonetheless.

Will the Conservative Stay United?

In a previous post I mentioned that the fact Erin O'Toole released a video indicating that a government lead by him would defund the CBC was interesting because such a video would only resonate with the Conservative Base. Further I speculated as to why he would release such a video and mentioned that it could be their internal data analysis is showing an erosion of the Conservative base, as some of the public polls are hinting at. With the rise of the Wexit Parties in the Prairies and the PPC in Ontario and Quebec there are alternatives to the Conservatives. Whether they could be considered credible is debatable but I would also point out that no one took the Reform Party seriously until they exploded on to the scene.

This line of thought did cause me to explore this notion a little more. 

The last time a national conservative party was truly united was the Progressive Conservative Party of Brian Mulroney. Mr. Mulroney won two straight majorities that went through Quebec, Ontario and Alberta. 

Then in 1993 the PCPC shattered along regional lines. In Quebec their voters went to the Bloc Quebecois. In Alberta they went to the Reform Party and in Ontario they split evenly between the Reform Party and the PCPC. It remained that way until just before the 2004 election when the Canadian Reform Alliance Party (the old Reform Party) and the remnants of the PCPC merged (or the PCPC was swallowed whole by the CRAP, depending on who you talk to.)

This new Conservative Party of Canada managed to unite itself and win three elections but it is a crucial fact that they were only able to win one majority government when they finally managed to reunite the Conservative voters of Ontario and Alberta and a sprinkling of Conservative voters in other western provinces. Interestingly when the old PCPC voters who turned to the Bloc turned away from them in 2011 they turned to the NDP and did not turn back to the CPC. 

All of this is to say that the bonds that unite the Conservative Party of Canada have not really been proven to be strong and resilient. It is true that there are probably not many old PCPC supporters left in the party so what is left is probably quite happy with the party but the rise of the PPC and the Wexit Parties do indicate that the Conservative base is not monolithic and that it may not be as rock solid as conventional wisdom believes.

The CPC was Stephen Harper's baby. He was the one who did the work to create it. He was the only CPC leader who could keep the more extreme elements of the Canadian Conservative Movement under wraps. Without him the Conservative Party of Canada has not been the same.

I do not know the answer to my question. It would not surprise me that they will somehow muddle through until they can finally get their act together but it would also not surprise me if the next election resembles 1993, and another united national conservative party breaks apart.

Why is Erin O'Toole talking about defunding the CBC?

I noted on Twitter yesterday that Erin O'Toole has released a video where he states that he will defund the CBC. It is standard fare for the Conservatives because they have been talking about that since the CPC was the Reform Party.

So why is he bothering to mention this now?

As I have stated in this space and as comments on other blogs the best way to see how the political wind is blowing is to watch the political parties and not the polls. The polls might give you clues but they are too easily manipulated and most people do not know how to read them even when they are not.

I believe the defund CBC gambit by Mr. O'Toole speaks volumes. That is the reddest of red meat for Conservatives. It ranks right up there with denying climate change, lowering taxes and reducing immigration, particularly of folks of a darker hue and different religions. The fact that Mr. O'Toole and his team have decided to throw this out there now could be a big indication that their internal data analysis is telling them what the public polls are hinting at.

While I always take polls with a truck load of salt it cannot be denied that many of them are indicating that the Conservatives are below the 30% mark. And the 30% mark is the usual floor for the Conservatives. Hell, in 2015, when the desire for change was at stratospheric levels the Conservatives garnered 30% of the vote because that is their base. If these polls are true and the Conservatives have actually fallen below 30% that would seem to indicate that their base is eroding.

I did not believe the polls but now I not so certain. The defund the CBC gambit could very well indicate that the public polls are on to something. That has been part of the CPC ethos since forever. It does not need to be said and the fact they decided to say it anyway might indicate that the public polls are correct. In short, the defund the CBC gambit could be designed to shore up the base of the CPC because some of it could be leaking to other conservative parties, such as the PPC and the Wexit Parties. 

If the Conservatives have any chance in the next election they need to maintain their base. If they lose it they are guaranteed to lose the election with the possibility of being absolutely creamed. The fact they released a video that would only appeal to that base might indicate that it is not as rock solid as it has been in the past. 

This is not proof that their base is eroding but it is a significant sign and we will have to keep an eye on this going forward. 

Mr. O'Toole's First Month

A little over a month has gone by since Erin O'Toole won the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada and this is my initial assessment of his performance so far.

I realize that I am biased but I am not expecting much from him in the first month.  It takes time to learn any job and learning the job of Leader of the Official Opposition of Canada would have a particularly steep learning curve.

When he won the leadership I wrote a post indicating that if he wants to realize any success he is going to have to lead instead of follow.  That is, he is going go have to take risks and make tough choices between the interests of some of the single issue Conservatives that won him the leadership and the broader interests of the Conservative Party in winning over centrist voters.

So far he has not done that.  He refused to say whether systemic racism exists in Canada and just today he has come out against the current bill outlawing conversion therapy for the thinnest of reasons.  Both of these issues are important to Canadians and the majority of Canadians would acknowledge that racism is an issue that that conversion therapy is wrong.  So, both issues provided Mr. O'Toole with an opportunity to demonstrate he is the moderate he claims to be.  He failed to take either opportunity.  Or he could have at least faked it like Stephen Harper use to do.  

It has only been a month the longer he takes to make a stand against the social conservatives the more difficult it will be to do.  Eventually, he will not be able to do so and people will notice.

Otherwise, his leadership has been more of the same.  Piss on Justin Trudeau on a daily basis on twitter and come up with some really lame memes.  In short, the same strategy as Mr. Scheer.  If he thinks that will gain him more success than Mr. Scheer he if probably in for a great disappointment.

It has only been one month so it is unreasonable to have him turn things all of the way around but he has had enough time to begin putting his stamp on the CPC and there is no sign that he is doing that or even attempting to that.  

Will Mr. O'Toole Lead or Follow?

Since his election as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada Erin O'Toole has been attempting to pass himself off as a moderate while hoping everybody will ignore the fact that social conservatives, the most militant anti-gun control groups and climate change deniers were crucial to his victory.

The simple fact is he does owe them and they will eventually come to collect their debts, or at least they will try.

I am reminded of Stephen Harper.  He was in a very similar situation.  He won the leadership of the Conservative Party by courting some of the more extreme elements of the conservative movement in this country and many believed that it would prevent him from ever winning an election.  

Of course, he did win elections and part of the reason why was he lead the Conservative Party instead of letting the different elements lead him.  He threw the thinnest of bones to the special interest groups that elected him as leader and did what needed to be done to appeal to more moderate voters in Central Canada in order to win.

The question is will Mr. O'Toole do the same thing?

Mr. O'Toole's challenge is much more daunting.  Mr. Harper won the leadership of the Conservatives before social media really took off so he could control the message within the Party and clamp down on dissidents.  As well, he came to power just as the last big energy boom in Alberta and Saskatchewan was just ramping up.  They were happy so they had no problem looking the other way when Mr. Harper started courting voters in Central Canada.  Finally, in the first decade of the millennium the social conservatives were not nearly as organized as they are now within the Conservative Party.

To overcome these challenges Mr. O'Toole is going to have to lead.  That means he is going to have to take risks.  The Conservatives cannot win without Central Canadian voters and that means they are going to have to move to the centre on a whole host of issues in order to attract those voters.  They will have to temper their social conservative urges and they will have to develop a viable and credible plan to tackle climate change.  Calling for the elimination of the Carbon Tax without expressing a credible alternative is a non-starter.  The Carbon Tax is only a big deal in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Calling for its elimination is not a vote winner in other parts of the country.  

Of course, that runs the grave risk of upsetting the Conservative base.  If energy prices were high then the Conservatives could probably take the risk without too many problems but since the collapse of energy prices a Western Separatist sentiment has risen in Alberta and Saskatchewan and political parties with the goal of trying to make that happen are being formed.  It is an open question of whether they will have any real impact but their presence does make Mr. O'Toole's job much harder, as many Albertans will not react well to any real action on climate change, and may decide to express that dissatisfaction by voting for Wexit candidates, while central Canadians would not react well to a non-credible plan on tackling it.

The same goes for the PPC, which could attract disillusioned social conservatives although I believe social conservatives will be keeping a close eye on Mr. O'Toole.  If he goes too far off message they will flex their muscle on social media potentially putting Mr. O'Toole in a very tough spot.  How Mr. O'Toole reacts to that will be telling.

The simple fact is Mr. O'Toole is actually going to have to lead.  That means making tough choices and taking risks.  If he is unable or unwilling to do that then no amount of image polishing will lead to electoral success.    

The Conservative Leadership Election Debacle

There is a repertory theatre here in Ottawa that has been showing old classics in order to stay afloat during the pandemic.  Beginning last week and continuing until mid-September they are having a Bruce Lee festival.  They are showing each of his movies, in order, one week at a time during the festival.  I am a Bruce Lee fan and I have seen all of his movies but not on the big screen.  I was still in elementary school when he died so I could not see them when they were first released.  So, I have been taking advantage of the festival to finally see them on the big screen and the second movie of the festival was shown last night.  As a result I did not get home until around 11:30 last night.

I mention all of this to indicate that I was not home to monitor the Conservative Leadership convention.  When I got home I figured I would take a quick look on-line, see who won and then go to bed.  I was wrong.  By the time I climbed into bed, just after midnight, the first ballot had not even been counted, a machine designed to open the envelopes was revealed to have torn up hundreds, maybe thousands of the ballot and there was no indication from the party of when the results would be announced.

I am not going to pass judgement on what all this means.  However, I would point out that in 2007, after Stephen Harper gave a national televised address, Stephane Dion gave a rebuttal address that was filmed using a mobile phone instead of an actual camera, leading to less than good picture and sound quality.  (This was before selfies became a thing).  The result of that is he was raked over the coals with people saying if the Liberals could not pull themselves together to produce a good quality video how can they be expected to run the country?  In his defence, the Liberals did not have alot of time to prepare.  Contrast that to the CPC that have had August 23 circled their calendars for months and their vote counting is still a debacle.  I will leave it up to everybody else to decide if there is any broader implications to that and what are those implications.

I then checked again this morning to discover that they had finally sorted themselves out and that they announced the results at around 0130 but that there were some 3000 ballots missed for reasons that are not yet clear.  I doubt that those votes would have changed the outcome but still the CPC has a bit of a reputation for questionable tactics during elections and those ballots being eliminated without a reasonable explanation can only feed into the reputation.

So after all of that Erin O'Toole was announced as the winner of the election.  I have read all sorts of hot takes on it so I will not add to it except to say that the Liberals are the favorite to win the next election, as I indicated in a previous post from this month, and nothing that has happened in the last 24 hours had changed that.

I would also say that my assertion that an election this fall is very unlikely stands.  Mr. O'Toole will have barely enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway before the House comes back.  As well, if he loses to Justin Trudeau his chances of staying on as leader of the CPC drop precipitously.  The Conservatives do not take well to leaders who lose elections, even ones that only won the leadership weeks or months in the past.  So he will want to maximise his time as leader and forcing an election that he is more likely to lose than win, and maybe allow Justin Trudeau to win a majority government, is not the way to accomplish that.  

All in all, last night was an inauspicious start to the Erin O'Toole era of the Conservative Party of Canada.