Maple MAGA is Going to be Going Through Some Stuff

Maple MAGA is already melting down. Through the defection of 5 opposition MPs to the Liberals, in the last few months, they are within one seat of gaining majority government status. There are three by-elections tomorrow and the Liberals are expected to gain at least two of the three with a reasonable probability that they will sweep them. That would give the Liberals a three seat majority. As well, it has been reported that other Conservative caucus members could move to the Liberal caucus in the coming weeks, giving the Liberals a more comfortable majority.

If this comes to pass we can probably expect Maple MAGA to react poorly.

By-elections being what they are no Liberal should take them for granted. In the past by-elections did not mean anything. They were just elections to fill vacant seats in between general elections and did not have any real impact on the political situation and they could not be taken as a harbinger of future elections, although commentators, both professional and amateur, often tied themselves into knots to prove otherwise.

This time it will be different. The results will lead to a majority government or force the Liberals to continue to work as a minority government. That will change the dynamic of them, from voter turnout usually being very low and many turning out to cast a protest vote, to voters actually voting to have a real impact on the federal political scene. 

However, assuming the Liberals win at least two of them, what is going to happen to Pierre Poilievre.

There are reports he may resign but I would bet money that he will not. If the Conservatives want to be rid of him they are going to have to push him out. He will not go voluntarily. 

I have stated the reason in this space before. If the next election is held in 2029, which would be the most probable outcome of the Liberals gaining majority government status, the leader of the CPC at that time will have a very good chance of becoming PM. There is no way that the Liberals will be able to fly as high as they are currently for the next three years. They will come back down to earth. Combine that with the fact 2029 will see the Liberals governing for 14 years, the chances of the Liberals winning the election in 2029 is probably less than 50/50.

Pierre Poilievre has to know this so unless he is forced out he will stick around. Ironically, if the Liberals gain enough seats for a majority the pressure will be reduced on Mr. Poilievre, even if more of his caucus leaves. The political dynamics of a majority government are much different from the dynamics of a minority government. He would have the luxury of just waiting out the Liberal surge and then attempt to take advantage of any downturn they experience. Without the prospect of a snap election he would have the luxury of time.

All of that will not reduce the extreme angst of Maple MAGA however so expect them to really lose their shit in the coming weeks if the by-elections results from tomorrow night play out as expected.