It must be exhausting

Sometimes I almost feel sorry for Pierre Poilievre just like I did with Mr. O'Toole and Mr. Scheer.

Him having to go full QAnon Trump on his twitter feed this past weekend followed by his capitulation in making the three MPs, who attended and had their pictures taken with a known neo-Nazi, suffer any consequences must be taking its toll.

All of the recent leaders of the CPC have had the same problem. They feel it is politically necessary to keep the most ardent MAGA Conservatives happy. They are a minority of the party and society but they are loud and they have the emotional maturity of a toddler. Really, if Mr. Poilievre does not constantly pay attention to them and their perceived needs and constantly validate their warped view of the world they throw a collective temper tantrum and make his life Hell. As an aside, it should be noted that they have not impacted Mr. Trudeau or his government one whit despite their best efforts. It is the CPC who they hurt the most and that is remarkable.

For some reason Mr. Poilievre and the leaders before him seem to go along with this and they do not even try to push back. 

I think the reason why is the misreading of the Harper victories. Remember that the CPC was only created in the early 2000s. They have gone through 7 elections and only won three of them. And two of those three were not very decisive victories. 

Finally, in 2011 Stephen Harper won a majority government for them. The way he did that was to throw red meat at his base for the first half of that election before pivoting to appeal to more moderate Canadians in the final three weeks. Helped along by an inept Liberal campaign and the collapse of the Bloc in Quebec, to the benefit of the NDP, and the CPC majority was born.

The CPC wanted to use the same strategy in 2015 but it was very apparent by the time they should have pivoted that victory was probably not going to be theirs so they just campaigned to save the furniture.

Both Mr. Scheer and Mr. O'Toole wanted to do the same in 2019 and 2021 but their efforts were always scuppered by their own followers.

The problem is the more rabid base of the CPC was not as big, loud and influential in 2011 or 2015 as it is now. Stephen Harper was able to pivot away from them during the 2011 election and subsequent government without too many problems. In short, the CPC was a different beast then.

Twelve years later the "right wing nut jobs" are the tail that wags the CPC dog. If Mr. Poilievre has any hope of hanging onto his job, let alone winning an election, he has to keep them happy, which is impossible when their whole political identity is to be profoundly unhappy. They are not going to let Mr. Poilievre pivot when it becomes necessary. 

And the situation is only getting worse. Mr. Scheer had this problem when he was leader but it was worse for Mr. O'Toole and it is becoming even worse for Mr. Poilievre. If an election does not happen until 2025 I can only imagine how much worse it will become for him.

Maybe, just maybe, he will push back and try to get a grip on the party. Then again, I have always questioned his political acumen so I am not so certain he will be able to do it. If he does not he could very well squander the opportunity to take advantage of a government that has been in power for a decade and for which many Canadians could be convinced to move on from if they like the alternative.

I imagine that the next few months and years are going to be even more exhausting for Mr. Poilievre.