Book Review: Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline

I finished reading this book which was written by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbotson. 

There are two major schools of thought around our species' demographic future. There is the "pessimistic" view which roughly states that the world population will continue to climb throughout this century until we hit 11 billion people by 2100, with all of the social and environmental problems that would come along with that. Then there is the "optimistic" view which argues that in fact our population will peak around 2050 or so at around 9 billion before dropping off to around 7 billion in 2100. This book, as the title implies, falls squarely in the "optimistic" camp.

The authors do a very good job of explaining the opposing point of view and they acknowledge that the main proponents of that point of view, the demographers of the United Nations, have a very good track record of predicting demographic trends. Even though they only spend a little time on it they still present a compelling argument for believing the "pessimistic" view could be our future.

Then the authors refute that point of view in a way that is rather unique when it comes to writing about demographic trends. They combine statistics with personal interviews. The authors traveled the world to speak to people. They spoke to rich Europeans, poor Brazilians in the favelas of Sao Paolo, professionals in Nairobi, Mexican migrants in the US and Aboriginals in Austrailia. This leads to them pointing to a possible correlation of low birth rates with increased urbanization, increased education and the usual increase in living standards that goes along with both. They rightly point out that in all regions of the world birth rates are coming down, including in India, China and Africa, the places many demographers point to to argue that we are facing a demographic bomb. 

Once they have established this they spend a good part of the book writing what the implications of it could be to the various parts of the world. In some places the implications could be dire as depopulation and the aging of what is left could make it very difficult for countries to remain prosperous and stable. 

Being Canadian the authors argue very persuasively for the Canadian approach to immigration as the model to follow to mitigate the impacts of declining birthrates.

The books conclusion very effectively pulls together the various arguments contained in it into a very plausible vision of what the world could look like in 2100 and what may happen between now and then. It is speculative but the speculation is largely backed up by the arguments and facts presented in the book. In just a passing sentence they suggest there might be a correlation between urbanization, female empowerment and and political and economic development. That would be something that might bear further exploration.

However, (there is always a however) I found the book somewhat lacking in three areas.

The first was the book does not break any new ground. Although their method of reaching their conclusions are rather unique the arguments they make and the conclusions that they draw from them are not new. Although breaking new ground was probably not the purpose of the book anyway.

The second is their assertion that the United States will probably go through the century escaping the most negative impacts of the decline in population. They base this argument on them believing the US will continue to take in immigrants, with all of the positive impacts that come from that. This book was written in 2018 so it was before COVID and before it became obvious that MAGA had metastasized out of the White House to the Supreme Court, Congress and many States but the two authors are political commentators so they should have at least considered such a possibility. As well, it is argued in the book that as birth rates goes down around the world and living standards go up the number of people actually wanting to emigrate to other countries, the US or otherwise, will be greatly reduced. That puts a spanner into their argument about the driver of the US's continued success.

Finally, while being plausible their view of the future may be a little too rosy. Certainly their arguments support their views but alot of things would have to go right in order to achieve that future, which cannot be safely assumed. Currently there are 7 billion people on this planet and we are killing off other species at a prodigious rate, emptying and polluting our oceans, denuding the last of the major forests on the planet and consuming other non-renewable resources, such as rare-earth minerals, at an unsustainable rate. Even the authors agree that the world population will hit 9 billion people in the next few decades, which will probably only exacerbate these problems. By the time we get to the 7 billion people in 2100 the only nature that may be left could be in those small areas of the world protected by governments. The rest of the world will probably be dominated by us and the plants and animals that we have domesticated. At the end of this century there may only be as many people living in it as there are now but those 7 billion people may be living in a much less hospitable world.

All that being said this book is well worth the time to read, especially if you only have a passing interest in the topic of the book. It is a very accessible. It uses statistics to prove its arguments without getting bogged down in them and the writing style is easy to understand and follow without resorting to dense science speak and jargon. It is a book you can start to read at 1pm and be done by suppertime and have a good understanding of the issues and arguments surrounding the future population of our species when you are done.