Last week, during successive Question Periods, in The House, the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada kept insisting that the payroll taxes used to fund Employment Insurance and the Canada Pension Plans should be reduced.
First, let's make one thing very clear. They are indeed taxes, more specifically payroll taxes, levied to fund specific government programs. Unlike other taxes, such as income taxes and the Goods and Services Tax, these payroll taxes do not go into the general revenue fund. They go into specially established pots of money to be used to fund EI and the CPP. As such, reducing these taxes would reduce the funds available for these programs. Eliminating them would have the defacto effect of eliminating both programs.
So, talking about reducing the taxes on either one can be construed by their political opponents as having a plan to significantly reduce or even eliminate these programs and make no mistake their opponents will be working hard to make those very connections when they believe it is to their political advantage.
Talking like that is stupid on several levels.
First, EI is used regularly by seasonal workers, who use that program to carry them through their off-seasons. They largely live in rural areas of Canada. Right now these very people seem to lean towards the Conservatives but that could change if they believe their livelihoods are threatened. This is particularly true in the rural areas of the Eastern provinces. It is likely that the margins of victory for Conservatives in rural Central and Western Canada would probably save them from losing many seats there but the same cannot be said about the Eastern provinces. Pissing off seasonal workers there will hand those seats to the Liberals. For the Conservatives to win they need to take at least net 20 seats from the Liberals while hoping that they do not pick up any seats from the Bloc or the NDP. That is a very daunting task and if they hand six to eight seats to the Liberals in the East it will be a near impossible task. But here they are making threatening statements about a program that many of their potential voters depend on. That does not seem smart.
With regard to the CPP that is even more of a danger area for them. It is a simple fact that every Canadian over the age of 45 is making retirement plans that assumes the CPP will be available to them. If it is not there those plans will be shot to hell. It is also a simple fact that the over 50 voter is still the most reliable voter amongst the electorate. If that demographic believes that the Conservatives are a credible threat to their retirement plans the Conservatives would be creamed in any election and I mean reduced to 2011 Liberal territory. Again it seems kind of stupid to take the risk of having their statements spun to their detriment.
As well, to make it worse, they said all of this in the House of Commons, where every word is recorded and published in the official record of the House, namely Hansard. So, their political opponents will be able to take those words and use them in the future to make life difficult for the Conservatives and they would be hard pressed to counter any of their opponents' claims because they are a matter of public record from a completely non-partisan source. They would be required to explain exactly what they meant and as the old saying goes: If you are explaining you are losing.
So why would the Conservatives take such a risk? My guess is they are not thinking past the end of the day. What I saw in QP last week was the Conservatives trying to "win" the daily theatre that is QP. It really does show a lack of forward thinking and long-term strategy. As Evan Scrimshaw rightly pointed out during the Conservative leadership campaign Pierre Poilievre never seemed to look past the current day. Every statement, action, social media post and meme was about winning that day, with no regard as to how it might impact him and the party in the future. The same seems to be happening now that he has secured the leadership.
It is a simple fact that Pierre Poilievre has said some really stupid and offensive things over the years and that it has all been recorded. The only saving grace for him is he can claim it was in the past. However, now he is adding to the hopper as the Leader of the Official Opposition and the erstwhile PM-in-waiting and he will not be able to claim it is not relevant once someone brings them up. And make no mistake they will be bringing them up between now and the next election and with the amount of time left until that election they will penetrate the consciousness of the average voter.
If Pierre Poilievre really wants to be PM he has to change his mindset and start to think strategically. Unfortunately for him and the CPC I do not believe he actually knows how to do that and I also think that he has surrounded himself with advisors who are unable to do it either. As someone who never wants to see him as PM I am fine with that but if you are a Conservative supporter, who can live with some of the crap he has promised in the last 6 months, then you should be concerned.
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