In a previous post I mentioned that the fact Erin O'Toole released a video indicating that a government lead by him would defund the CBC was interesting because such a video would only resonate with the Conservative Base. Further I speculated as to why he would release such a video and mentioned that it could be their internal data analysis is showing an erosion of the Conservative base, as some of the public polls are hinting at. With the rise of the Wexit Parties in the Prairies and the PPC in Ontario and Quebec there are alternatives to the Conservatives. Whether they could be considered credible is debatable but I would also point out that no one took the Reform Party seriously until they exploded on to the scene.
This line of thought did cause me to explore this notion a little more.
The last time a national conservative party was truly united was the Progressive Conservative Party of Brian Mulroney. Mr. Mulroney won two straight majorities that went through Quebec, Ontario and Alberta.
Then in 1993 the PCPC shattered along regional lines. In Quebec their voters went to the Bloc Quebecois. In Alberta they went to the Reform Party and in Ontario they split evenly between the Reform Party and the PCPC. It remained that way until just before the 2004 election when the Canadian Reform Alliance Party (the old Reform Party) and the remnants of the PCPC merged (or the PCPC was swallowed whole by the CRAP, depending on who you talk to.)
This new Conservative Party of Canada managed to unite itself and win three elections but it is a crucial fact that they were only able to win one majority government when they finally managed to reunite the Conservative voters of Ontario and Alberta and a sprinkling of Conservative voters in other western provinces. Interestingly when the old PCPC voters who turned to the Bloc turned away from them in 2011 they turned to the NDP and did not turn back to the CPC.
All of this is to say that the bonds that unite the Conservative Party of Canada have not really been proven to be strong and resilient. It is true that there are probably not many old PCPC supporters left in the party so what is left is probably quite happy with the party but the rise of the PPC and the Wexit Parties do indicate that the Conservative base is not monolithic and that it may not be as rock solid as conventional wisdom believes.
The CPC was Stephen Harper's baby. He was the one who did the work to create it. He was the only CPC leader who could keep the more extreme elements of the Canadian Conservative Movement under wraps. Without him the Conservative Party of Canada has not been the same.
I do not know the answer to my question. It would not surprise me that they will somehow muddle through until they can finally get their act together but it would also not surprise me if the next election resembles 1993, and another united national conservative party breaks apart.
1 comment:
Well, if the Cons fracture into the sum of their parts and the next election resembles 1993, perhaps the ones afterward would represent 1997 and 2000. Assuming he wants to, Trudeau could remain PM for another decade, and be his dad and Chrétien all in one. (Eh, it's a nice thought, anyway...)
Somehow I don't think Sith apprentice Ben Harper has the autocratic management skills of his old man. Doug Ford? No, and he can't speak French. He can't even speak English.
I guess the Cons will have to go with a bombastic, obnoxious TV personality to be their unifying messiah in a MAGA hat. Wait, they tried Kevin O'Leary, and that didn't work out. (Whose boat is this boat?) Brett Wilson? Don Martin? Chris Jericho? Uh... wait, I know, Donald J. Cherry!
Or, they could do Canada a favor: fold up the big blue circus tent and go home.
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