I noted on Twitter yesterday that Erin O'Toole has released a video where he states that he will defund the CBC. It is standard fare for the Conservatives because they have been talking about that since the CPC was the Reform Party.
So why is he bothering to mention this now?
As I have stated in this space and as comments on other blogs the best way to see how the political wind is blowing is to watch the political parties and not the polls. The polls might give you clues but they are too easily manipulated and most people do not know how to read them even when they are not.
I believe the defund CBC gambit by Mr. O'Toole speaks volumes. That is the reddest of red meat for Conservatives. It ranks right up there with denying climate change, lowering taxes and reducing immigration, particularly of folks of a darker hue and different religions. The fact that Mr. O'Toole and his team have decided to throw this out there now could be a big indication that their internal data analysis is telling them what the public polls are hinting at.
While I always take polls with a truck load of salt it cannot be denied that many of them are indicating that the Conservatives are below the 30% mark. And the 30% mark is the usual floor for the Conservatives. Hell, in 2015, when the desire for change was at stratospheric levels the Conservatives garnered 30% of the vote because that is their base. If these polls are true and the Conservatives have actually fallen below 30% that would seem to indicate that their base is eroding.
I did not believe the polls but now I not so certain. The defund the CBC gambit could very well indicate that the public polls are on to something. That has been part of the CPC ethos since forever. It does not need to be said and the fact they decided to say it anyway might indicate that the public polls are correct. In short, the defund the CBC gambit could be designed to shore up the base of the CPC because some of it could be leaking to other conservative parties, such as the PPC and the Wexit Parties.
If the Conservatives have any chance in the next election they need to maintain their base. If they lose it they are guaranteed to lose the election with the possibility of being absolutely creamed. The fact they released a video that would only appeal to that base might indicate that it is not as rock solid as it has been in the past.
This is not proof that their base is eroding but it is a significant sign and we will have to keep an eye on this going forward.
1 comment:
He's throwing everything at the wall and it's not sticking. Today he really jumped the shark with not one, but two opposition motions aimed at feeding the QAnon/conspiracy base that the public polls indicate he's in danger of losing. One called for the arm's length public health agency to be held in contempt for not producing documents pertaining to supposed "Chinese spies" who had allegedly infiltrated the agency, and were purportedly in cahoots with the "infamous" lab at Wuhan. The equivalent of the GQP demanding to "impeach" Dr. Fauci. Another was aimed at smearing Sajjan's personal character, and accusing him of stolen valour. An absolute disgrace from a grandstander with a Rand McNally map to nowhere who is outranked by the minister, not just in military service but integrity.
Some leader O'Toole is: he's not even able to corral his own troops into something resembling sanity, as it was Cheryl "Goofus" Gallant who tweeted that Trudeau would be held accountable for unleashing the virus all over the world. Framing him as the "Manchurian Canada Date" seems to be the overall theme. Meanwhile, Poilievre makes childish videos offering a simplistic explanation of economics and accusing Mark Carney of being a "Davos elite". Well, he was Bank of Canada chair under Harper, so is he saying Harper has poor hiring judgment? O'Toole just whistles past the graveyard letting Poilievre make a fool of himself and embarrass the party on social media, because demoting the popular pigeon has already won O'Toole his big, bald, empty head on a proverbial spike outside the blue circus tent.
O'Toole has no control of his caucus, and the "defund the CBC" rhetoric is just the tip of the iceberg for what's to be expected in terms of populist blather from the Republicans of the North. It's the equivalent of cancel-culturing Big Bird. It's really going to say a lot when he crashes the blue chopper in a worse position than feckless, quivering milquetoast Andrew Scheer. Who, I should add, in his parting comments at the leadership convention, implored Conservatives to get their news from "alternative facts" outlets like Post Millennial and Canada Proud. The result is this mess: a cult of unreality that denies science, amplifies hate, and has no platform to speak of than "Justin Trudeau is bad." So much for a moderate pivot.
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