The Resignation of Bill Morneau - Updated

Well, there certainly has been alot of excitement on the Canadian political scene today, or at least excitement for the political class.  Everybody else that lives south of Laurier Avenue probably does not care that much.

There is no denying that the loss of a Finance Minister is a blow for any government but let's maintain our sense of proportion.  The Finance Minister post is vitally important to the government but the person who occupies that post is not as important.  I would wager a fair amount of money that most Canadians would not be able to pick Bill Morneau out of a lineup.  Paul Martin was the last Finance Minister who people knew well but that was only because he had his own power base within the Liberal Party and ambitions to lead it.  Bill Morneau had none of that.

So why did he leave?

Well, we can take him at his word that he never planned on sticking around for more than two terms.  In other words, he had no plans or desire to fight a third election.  In that case, with the Liberals being a minority government, and that third election being possible at any time, he would want to leave while no prospect of an election is imminent.  So leaving now makes sense.

There is also the notion that Mr. Moreau and the PM might have had irreconcilable differences over the handling of the pandemic and the recovery plan.  That is possible but the Prime Minister's style is one of consensus as opposed to dictating what he wants so I am certain they would have worked something out.

The WE issue could have lead to his resignation.  That is probably the angle the Opposition and the media will pursue but I doubt that is the case.  I have seen government ministers being forced to resign over scandal and they are always preceded by weeks of controversy dogging the minister.  That did not happen here.  He had a moment of controversy a few weeks ago, each Opposition Party leader called for his removal but not consistently and there was some rumblings in the media but there was never any of the relentless pressure that we have seen in the past.

He was fired.  No.  See the my last point.

Remarkably, politicians usually do not tell you the whole story but what they do tell you is usually true.  So, if Mr. Morneau indicated that he was never interested in being a professional politician then that is probably the real story.  

So let's talk about the timing of his resignation.

First, he did not decide to resign yesterday morning.  That decision was made weeks ago and he probably informed the PM of it when he made it.  It then became a question of when would be the best time for him to announce his resignation and how to coordinate that with installing his replacement.  The fact his replacement was announced the morning after demonstrates that.  As well, no government makes the decision to prorogue Parliament the night before.  When Mr. Morneau told the PM he would be leaving that set the wheels in motion for what we saw this morning.

Why did they choose yesterday?  The immediate economic crisis caused by the pandemic is behind us.  For the past few weeks the economy has been showing signs of recovery.  In short, the current economic situation can be described as serious but stable.  Mr. Morneau steered the country's finances through the initial crisis but now the government is looking towards the recovery plan and the opportunities it presents.  However, the duration of the recovery plan can probably be measured in years, which was probably well beyond the time Mr. Moreau wanted to remain in politics.  So now is a good time to hand off the torch.  Nothing big is going to happen from a financial perspective for at least two months so leaving now will allow for a smoother transition to the recovery plan without unduly threatening the country's finances.

As well, the government probably wanted to prorogue Parliament so that they can present their recovery plan in a Throne Speech, followed by a budget and his resignation can be seen as a catalyst for that.  Make no mistake, the Opposition and the media will spin this in the most disadvantageous manner for the government but it is mid-August, only the most partisan are going to care.

Finally, I think Justin Trudeau just trolled the Conservatives.  They have been running a leadership campaign that has been described, by Conservative supporters in the media, as being a dud.  With the announcement of the new leader on Sunday this would be the week for the Conservative media to try to generate some buzz.  There would be long pieces on each of the contenders and speculative but very positive pieces on the potential new direction of the Conservative Party.  Now all of that is going to be stomped on by the news of last night and today.  On Sunday, without the excitement of a convention, the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada will be announced and I would bet that very few people will notice.  The biggest reason why a political party may enjoy a bounce in the polls, after selecting a new leader, is the buzz and excitement leading up to the selection.  The actual announcement is usually anti-climatic.  That excitement has been missing since the contest started and any efforts to create it this week will probably be lost in the media din around the events of the last 24 hours.  As the media spends the next few days focusing on spinning the last 24 hours they will be pushing the upcoming CPC announcement down the priority list, making it even harder for the Conservative Party to get people to notice they have elected a new leader, That would have been hard enough anyway because they decided to make this announcement during the dog days of summer, which is a bad time to do it at any time, let alone during a global pandemic.  Now it is even harder.

No government likes to lose a senior minister but if one decides to leave there is really not much that a government can do about it.  All they can do is attempt to mitigate any negative fallout that might come from it.  It remains to be seen if they managed to do that with the way Mr. Morneau resigned but you cannot fault the effort we have seen them put into achieving that objective, in the last few hours.

Update:  The Opposition Parties might regret Mr. Morneau's resignation because his replacement is the most capable minister in the government, Chrystia Freeland.  The last time the Liberals had a dynamic duo like they do now was Chretien and Martin and they governed for 11 straight years.  The difference is Ms. Freeland is not as baldly ambitious as Paul Martin was so we would probably be saved from the Liberal soap opera the media so liked to push back then.