If an Election is Held in the Fall Who Would Win?

I do not believe we will see an election this Fall.  None of the Opposition Parties really want one, for various reasons, and the Liberals under Mr. Trudeau have focused on governing largely avoided overt political maneuvering.  So, the PM will probably not take the short walk to see the Governor General unless he loses the confidence of The House.  

However, let's say the Opposition Parties do decide to bring down the government.  Who would win the election?

It should come as no surprise that I believe in such a situation the Liberals would form the government yet again.  Many would say that, as a Liberal supporter, that I am biased.  I am aware of that bias and I have taken it into account.  As well, my bias did not prevent me from predicting that the Ontario Liberals would suffer a massive defeat in 2018, on the night that they won their last majority government in 2013.

The basis of my assertion is historical voting patterns.  It is truly remarkable how they have been constant for the last century.  One feature of the patterns is federal governments tend to last about eight years.  Joe Clark's and John Diefenbaker's governments were notable exceptions but otherwise the pattern has held since before the First World War.  

The Trudeau government will have been in power less than five years this Fall well short of the usual eight years.  That seems to be the cut off.  After eight years a government is operating on borrowed time.  Sometimes they can govern for significantly longer but all of the stars have to align for that to happen.  Most of the time though, if a party has been the government for eight years they will be looking at losing the next election, whenever it happens.

The second historical voting pattern is the voters of Ontario like to have governments of opposing parties in Ottawa and Queens Park.  There is currently a Conservative government in Ontario so Ontario voters will probably continue to support the Liberals over the CPC and if that happens the Liberals win, with their level of support in the other provinces deciding whether they win a minority or a majority government.

Those two historical voting patterns put the Liberals in a good position if an election is held this Fall without taking into account any other factors.  Add in the many problems of the Opposition Parties and the fact we are still dealing with a global pandemic their advantage increases.  Finally, as I stated in my previous post the Liberals are going to produce a very progressive Speech and Budget that will probably appeal to a significant number of the 60% of the Canadian electorate that call themselves progressive.  Who knows how non-aligned voters will react but unless the Opposition Parties can come up with a more credible plan many of those non-aligned voters will probably vote for the stability currently offered by the Liberals.

For the Liberals to lose the next election two historical voting patterns have to break down.  Although that is certainly a possibility the probability of it happening is low.  Add the troubles of the Opposition Parties and the ongoing global pandemic any election held this Fall would probably result in a Liberal victory.  I really cannot say how big that victory would be but regardless of what happens this Fall I would say the Liberals will still be the government at this time in 2021.