Since his election as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada Erin O'Toole has been attempting to pass himself off as a moderate while hoping everybody will ignore the fact that social conservatives, the most militant anti-gun control groups and climate change deniers were crucial to his victory.
The simple fact is he does owe them and they will eventually come to collect their debts, or at least they will try.
I am reminded of Stephen Harper. He was in a very similar situation. He won the leadership of the Conservative Party by courting some of the more extreme elements of the conservative movement in this country and many believed that it would prevent him from ever winning an election.
Of course, he did win elections and part of the reason why was he lead the Conservative Party instead of letting the different elements lead him. He threw the thinnest of bones to the special interest groups that elected him as leader and did what needed to be done to appeal to more moderate voters in Central Canada in order to win.
The question is will Mr. O'Toole do the same thing?
Mr. O'Toole's challenge is much more daunting. Mr. Harper won the leadership of the Conservatives before social media really took off so he could control the message within the Party and clamp down on dissidents. As well, he came to power just as the last big energy boom in Alberta and Saskatchewan was just ramping up. They were happy so they had no problem looking the other way when Mr. Harper started courting voters in Central Canada. Finally, in the first decade of the millennium the social conservatives were not nearly as organized as they are now within the Conservative Party.
To overcome these challenges Mr. O'Toole is going to have to lead. That means he is going to have to take risks. The Conservatives cannot win without Central Canadian voters and that means they are going to have to move to the centre on a whole host of issues in order to attract those voters. They will have to temper their social conservative urges and they will have to develop a viable and credible plan to tackle climate change. Calling for the elimination of the Carbon Tax without expressing a credible alternative is a non-starter. The Carbon Tax is only a big deal in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Calling for its elimination is not a vote winner in other parts of the country.
Of course, that runs the grave risk of upsetting the Conservative base. If energy prices were high then the Conservatives could probably take the risk without too many problems but since the collapse of energy prices a Western Separatist sentiment has risen in Alberta and Saskatchewan and political parties with the goal of trying to make that happen are being formed. It is an open question of whether they will have any real impact but their presence does make Mr. O'Toole's job much harder, as many Albertans will not react well to any real action on climate change, and may decide to express that dissatisfaction by voting for Wexit candidates, while central Canadians would not react well to a non-credible plan on tackling it.
The same goes for the PPC, which could attract disillusioned social conservatives although I believe social conservatives will be keeping a close eye on Mr. O'Toole. If he goes too far off message they will flex their muscle on social media potentially putting Mr. O'Toole in a very tough spot. How Mr. O'Toole reacts to that will be telling.
The simple fact is Mr. O'Toole is actually going to have to lead. That means making tough choices and taking risks. If he is unable or unwilling to do that then no amount of image polishing will lead to electoral success.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Monday, August 24, 2020
The Conservative Leadership Election Debacle
There is a repertory theatre here in Ottawa that has been showing old classics in order to stay afloat during the pandemic. Beginning last week and continuing until mid-September they are having a Bruce Lee festival. They are showing each of his movies, in order, one week at a time during the festival. I am a Bruce Lee fan and I have seen all of his movies but not on the big screen. I was still in elementary school when he died so I could not see them when they were first released. So, I have been taking advantage of the festival to finally see them on the big screen and the second movie of the festival was shown last night. As a result I did not get home until around 11:30 last night.
I mention all of this to indicate that I was not home to monitor the Conservative Leadership convention. When I got home I figured I would take a quick look on-line, see who won and then go to bed. I was wrong. By the time I climbed into bed, just after midnight, the first ballot had not even been counted, a machine designed to open the envelopes was revealed to have torn up hundreds, maybe thousands of the ballot and there was no indication from the party of when the results would be announced.
I am not going to pass judgement on what all this means. However, I would point out that in 2007, after Stephen Harper gave a national televised address, Stephane Dion gave a rebuttal address that was filmed using a mobile phone instead of an actual camera, leading to less than good picture and sound quality. (This was before selfies became a thing). The result of that is he was raked over the coals with people saying if the Liberals could not pull themselves together to produce a good quality video how can they be expected to run the country? In his defence, the Liberals did not have alot of time to prepare. Contrast that to the CPC that have had August 23 circled their calendars for months and their vote counting is still a debacle. I will leave it up to everybody else to decide if there is any broader implications to that and what are those implications.
I then checked again this morning to discover that they had finally sorted themselves out and that they announced the results at around 0130 but that there were some 3000 ballots missed for reasons that are not yet clear. I doubt that those votes would have changed the outcome but still the CPC has a bit of a reputation for questionable tactics during elections and those ballots being eliminated without a reasonable explanation can only feed into the reputation.
So after all of that Erin O'Toole was announced as the winner of the election. I have read all sorts of hot takes on it so I will not add to it except to say that the Liberals are the favorite to win the next election, as I indicated in a previous post from this month, and nothing that has happened in the last 24 hours had changed that.
I would also say that my assertion that an election this fall is very unlikely stands. Mr. O'Toole will have barely enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway before the House comes back. As well, if he loses to Justin Trudeau his chances of staying on as leader of the CPC drop precipitously. The Conservatives do not take well to leaders who lose elections, even ones that only won the leadership weeks or months in the past. So he will want to maximise his time as leader and forcing an election that he is more likely to lose than win, and maybe allow Justin Trudeau to win a majority government, is not the way to accomplish that.
All in all, last night was an inauspicious start to the Erin O'Toole era of the Conservative Party of Canada.
I mention all of this to indicate that I was not home to monitor the Conservative Leadership convention. When I got home I figured I would take a quick look on-line, see who won and then go to bed. I was wrong. By the time I climbed into bed, just after midnight, the first ballot had not even been counted, a machine designed to open the envelopes was revealed to have torn up hundreds, maybe thousands of the ballot and there was no indication from the party of when the results would be announced.
I am not going to pass judgement on what all this means. However, I would point out that in 2007, after Stephen Harper gave a national televised address, Stephane Dion gave a rebuttal address that was filmed using a mobile phone instead of an actual camera, leading to less than good picture and sound quality. (This was before selfies became a thing). The result of that is he was raked over the coals with people saying if the Liberals could not pull themselves together to produce a good quality video how can they be expected to run the country? In his defence, the Liberals did not have alot of time to prepare. Contrast that to the CPC that have had August 23 circled their calendars for months and their vote counting is still a debacle. I will leave it up to everybody else to decide if there is any broader implications to that and what are those implications.
I then checked again this morning to discover that they had finally sorted themselves out and that they announced the results at around 0130 but that there were some 3000 ballots missed for reasons that are not yet clear. I doubt that those votes would have changed the outcome but still the CPC has a bit of a reputation for questionable tactics during elections and those ballots being eliminated without a reasonable explanation can only feed into the reputation.
So after all of that Erin O'Toole was announced as the winner of the election. I have read all sorts of hot takes on it so I will not add to it except to say that the Liberals are the favorite to win the next election, as I indicated in a previous post from this month, and nothing that has happened in the last 24 hours had changed that.
I would also say that my assertion that an election this fall is very unlikely stands. Mr. O'Toole will have barely enough time to find all of the bathrooms in Stornaway before the House comes back. As well, if he loses to Justin Trudeau his chances of staying on as leader of the CPC drop precipitously. The Conservatives do not take well to leaders who lose elections, even ones that only won the leadership weeks or months in the past. So he will want to maximise his time as leader and forcing an election that he is more likely to lose than win, and maybe allow Justin Trudeau to win a majority government, is not the way to accomplish that.
All in all, last night was an inauspicious start to the Erin O'Toole era of the Conservative Party of Canada.
Sunday, August 23, 2020
The Failure of Andrew Scheer
This is Andrew Scheer's last day as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and leader of the Official Opposition of Canada. At times like this it is customary to look back at the time he spent in those roles and assess his performance.
Many in the media have praised him in the last few days, although that praise smacked more of not wanting to speak ill of the dead instead of being genuine praise for his accomplishments.
Now it is my turn to assess his performance and it should come as no surprise that I believed he failed on a fundamental level. Many would just put my assessment down to partisanship as I tend to support the Liberals so if you want to dismiss this assessment by all means go ahead.
Many people point to Mr. Scheer losing the last election as his greatest failure but I disagree. He really did not have much of a chance of winning because three historical voting patterns were working against him. It would have taken a near miracle for him to overcome them. And if you are still one of these people who believes that Mr. Scheer prevented the Liberals from achieving majority government I would say you are mistaken. It was the Bloc that did that. So him losing the election was not his greatest failure.
So what was his greatest failure? He did not renew the Conservative Party of Canada despite the fact that he had three years to do that. The CPC that went into the 2019 election was the same one that went into the 2015 election. He did not make the Party his Party even though he had the time to do it.
That matters because the new leader, regardless of who that is, will have to take that party into the next election. It is the same party that Stephen Harper created in 2004 and the same party that lost in 2015 and 2019. Since the new leader is facing a minority government he is going to have to focus on election readiness instead of party renewal. As well, to make things worse one of the perverse impacts of the pandemic is the Liberals now have the opportunity to develop a compelling election narrative, something that they might have had difficulty developing in normal times, for the next election.
When Justin Trudeau took over the Liberal Party he took the time offered by the Harper majority government to completely renew the Liberal Party. He changed it from the party of Jean Chretien/Paul Martin to the party of Justin Trudeau, much to the everlasting chagrin of stalwarts of those two men. I feel Mr. Trudeau does not receive the credit he deserves for that accomplishment, done in a relatively short period of time. If he had not done it the Liberals might not have won in 2015.
That 2015 loss by the CPC was a tough one but it gave them the time to renew their party. They chose Mr. Scheer to be their leader and he failed to do so. Indeed, I believe he did not even try. The CPC is still very much the party of Stephen Harper. Some believe it is because he is the man behind the curtain and that could be true but it is just as likely that the lack of renewal could have been inertia on the part of the Party Apparatus combined with laziness and/or incompetence of Mr. Scheer. Either way, the CPC of today is the same party as when he took over the leadership four years ago and that is the fundamental failure for which he is responsible.
Many in the media have praised him in the last few days, although that praise smacked more of not wanting to speak ill of the dead instead of being genuine praise for his accomplishments.
Now it is my turn to assess his performance and it should come as no surprise that I believed he failed on a fundamental level. Many would just put my assessment down to partisanship as I tend to support the Liberals so if you want to dismiss this assessment by all means go ahead.
Many people point to Mr. Scheer losing the last election as his greatest failure but I disagree. He really did not have much of a chance of winning because three historical voting patterns were working against him. It would have taken a near miracle for him to overcome them. And if you are still one of these people who believes that Mr. Scheer prevented the Liberals from achieving majority government I would say you are mistaken. It was the Bloc that did that. So him losing the election was not his greatest failure.
So what was his greatest failure? He did not renew the Conservative Party of Canada despite the fact that he had three years to do that. The CPC that went into the 2019 election was the same one that went into the 2015 election. He did not make the Party his Party even though he had the time to do it.
That matters because the new leader, regardless of who that is, will have to take that party into the next election. It is the same party that Stephen Harper created in 2004 and the same party that lost in 2015 and 2019. Since the new leader is facing a minority government he is going to have to focus on election readiness instead of party renewal. As well, to make things worse one of the perverse impacts of the pandemic is the Liberals now have the opportunity to develop a compelling election narrative, something that they might have had difficulty developing in normal times, for the next election.
When Justin Trudeau took over the Liberal Party he took the time offered by the Harper majority government to completely renew the Liberal Party. He changed it from the party of Jean Chretien/Paul Martin to the party of Justin Trudeau, much to the everlasting chagrin of stalwarts of those two men. I feel Mr. Trudeau does not receive the credit he deserves for that accomplishment, done in a relatively short period of time. If he had not done it the Liberals might not have won in 2015.
That 2015 loss by the CPC was a tough one but it gave them the time to renew their party. They chose Mr. Scheer to be their leader and he failed to do so. Indeed, I believe he did not even try. The CPC is still very much the party of Stephen Harper. Some believe it is because he is the man behind the curtain and that could be true but it is just as likely that the lack of renewal could have been inertia on the part of the Party Apparatus combined with laziness and/or incompetence of Mr. Scheer. Either way, the CPC of today is the same party as when he took over the leadership four years ago and that is the fundamental failure for which he is responsible.
Saturday, August 22, 2020
Canada is not a Corrupt Country
Canada is pretty much corruption free. Yes some politicians push the limits of ethical behaviour but it would be a stretch to call them corrupt.
What passes for corruption in this country is a joke. Bill Moreau was accused of being corrupt because he forgot to pay a $41,000 travel bill to a WE event in Africa. One of the contributing factors to the fall of the Harper government was a $90,000 payment from his Chief of Staff to Senator Duffy. Another joke. The WE controversy was billed as corruption but the facts do not support that billing and the same can be said about the SNC Lavalin "scandal".
In over 35 years of observing Canadian politics I can only identify two instances of actual corruption. The Sponsorship Scandal and Brian Mulroney taking a suitcase full of cash from Mr. Schrieber. That is it.
Now compare that to the rest of the world. The dumpster fire that is the Trump Administration is a poster child for corruption. The fact that virtually all of his campaign team, from 2016, are either convicted felons or are about to be convicted felons would be an indication of corruption. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. Unfortunately, the laws around campaign financing in the US create many opportunities for unscrupulous individuals to be corrupt.
Then let's look at Russia. One of Mr. Putin's leading critics is currently in a coma in a German hospital after being poisoned, likely by people working for Mr. Putin. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt in Canada if something similar were to happen to Mr. Scheer or Mr. Singh?
And that is just the big corruption. Canada is virtually free of little corruption. I used to work with a guy who once vacationed in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. He is a big white guy so he really stood out there. He rented a motorcycle so that he could go out and explore the countryside outside of the city. On his trip outside of the city he was stopped ten times and given a ticket by the cops, for various infractions, the ticket to be paid immediately to the cop. Each ticket worked out to be about 25 cents Canadian so the penalties were not that onerous but he knew that he did not break any laws. He was just a white tourist who the cops believed had money to spare so they took advantage.
Canadians certainly need to maintain their vigilance to make certain they identify dishonest and corrupt people in government but Canadians can also be assured that actual corruption in Canada is very rare and those very few who would be corrupt are always caught in the end.
What passes for corruption in this country is a joke. Bill Moreau was accused of being corrupt because he forgot to pay a $41,000 travel bill to a WE event in Africa. One of the contributing factors to the fall of the Harper government was a $90,000 payment from his Chief of Staff to Senator Duffy. Another joke. The WE controversy was billed as corruption but the facts do not support that billing and the same can be said about the SNC Lavalin "scandal".
In over 35 years of observing Canadian politics I can only identify two instances of actual corruption. The Sponsorship Scandal and Brian Mulroney taking a suitcase full of cash from Mr. Schrieber. That is it.
Now compare that to the rest of the world. The dumpster fire that is the Trump Administration is a poster child for corruption. The fact that virtually all of his campaign team, from 2016, are either convicted felons or are about to be convicted felons would be an indication of corruption. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. Unfortunately, the laws around campaign financing in the US create many opportunities for unscrupulous individuals to be corrupt.
Then let's look at Russia. One of Mr. Putin's leading critics is currently in a coma in a German hospital after being poisoned, likely by people working for Mr. Putin. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt in Canada if something similar were to happen to Mr. Scheer or Mr. Singh?
And that is just the big corruption. Canada is virtually free of little corruption. I used to work with a guy who once vacationed in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. He is a big white guy so he really stood out there. He rented a motorcycle so that he could go out and explore the countryside outside of the city. On his trip outside of the city he was stopped ten times and given a ticket by the cops, for various infractions, the ticket to be paid immediately to the cop. Each ticket worked out to be about 25 cents Canadian so the penalties were not that onerous but he knew that he did not break any laws. He was just a white tourist who the cops believed had money to spare so they took advantage.
Canadians certainly need to maintain their vigilance to make certain they identify dishonest and corrupt people in government but Canadians can also be assured that actual corruption in Canada is very rare and those very few who would be corrupt are always caught in the end.
The Acceleration of the End of the Conservative Consensus
I have written in this space before about the Conservative Consensus. In summary the Consensus is
- The uncritical belief in free trade.
- The uncritical belief in trickle down economics (Although that might just be an excuse for greed)
- Government regulation is a bad thing.
- Taxes are too high and need to be reduced.
- Government spending is too high and needs to be reduced.
- Social programs are ineffective and reduce economic activity.
- Deficit financing is bad and should be eliminated. (This one is mainly given lip service.)
- Unions and organized labour is too powerful leading to a reduction in competitiveness and economic activity. That power has to be curtailed.
That Consensus has been with us since the early 1980s and all governments of all political stripes have been constrained by it since then.
That Consensus has been slowly breaking down as demonstrated by the rise of Bernie Sanders and a whole host of US politicians who emulate him and who have been elected. As well, the election of Justin Trudeau in 2015 even though he promised to run deficits AND introduce a new tax, followed by his re-election despite his keeping those promises and actually doubling down on them in 2019 are an indication of the breakdown in the Consensus.
Conservatives know that the Consensus is breaking down and they have been trying to slow it down if not reverse it. The unrelenting opposition to the Carbon Tax by Conservatives surprised many commentators because they rightly point out that is was a conservative idea. However, that was not the point. The fact it was a new tax that had been accepted by Canadians frightened the shit out of Conservatives and they needed to convince them that is was a bad idea because if they accepted one tax they would accept more.
Now the COVID pandemic has created the situation where the breakdown of the Consensus could be accelerated. The Government of Canada did something very surprising when the virus really hit essentially forcing the shut down of the Canadian economy. The government provided economic relief directly to Canadians instead of to business (particularly big business). In addition, in order to pay for it they ran up a massive budget deficit. Many have stated that if this would have happened under a Conservative government things would have been much different. I would suggest that if this would have happened under the Chretien Liberals it would have been the same as under the Conservatives. This is not because the Chretien Liberals were more Conservative it is because when Jean Chretien ran the show the Conservative Consensus was firmly entrenched and it had not yet been shown to be the disaster that it has proven to be.
Ordinary Canadians appreciated the government assistance and they ignored some of the voices of the Consensus who indicated that the assistance was not good, some rambling on about the disincentive to work caused by it. As well, that massive deficit was greeted with a collective shrug by Canadians.
Now we are looking towards an economic recovery from COVID and the Trudeau government has indicated that Canada has been presented with an opportunity to address many of the issues that have resulted from living under 30+ years of the Consensus. He did not state it that way but that is the upshot of what he is proposing. Predictably many of the proponents of the Consensus have begun to urge caution. There have been opinion pieces in the Globe, Financial Post and other media warning that Canadians may grow "used to" the government largess and that it will result in Canadians growing fat and lazy. (I am paraphrasing)
The thing is, Mr. Trudeau would not have made such statements if he believed that it would hurt him politically. The past few months have demonstrated to many Canadians that the government can directly help their citizens and it has also demonstrated that deficits are not the big bogey man we have been lead to believe. It would appear Canadians are ready to move in a new direction and they are ready to do it sooner rather than later.
I firmly believe that Canadians would have come around to the change of direction anyway but it would have been much more gradual. The pandemic might have accelerated the process. Those who support and benefit from the Conservative Consensus will try to change their minds in the coming weeks and months but it is an open question of whether they will be able to.
Thursday, August 20, 2020
I would just like to point out...
It is Thursday. In three days the Conservative Party of Canada will announce the winner of their leadership contest but very little has been said about it this week in the media.
Instead, they are talking about the prorogation of Parliament and crapping on the Prime Minister for doing it. Oh yes, some are also questioning the qualifications of our new Finance Minister.
In a previous post I indicated that the resignation of Bill Morneau, the appointment of Ms. Freeland has his replacement and the prorogation of Parliament have been in the planning stages for a few weeks and that none of what we have seen this week is an accident.
Justin Trudeau has always been very subtle when he plays politics. Make no mistake, the implementation of this plan this week was partially designed to bait the media into ignoring the Conservatives in the week leading up to the election of a new leader. He knows that everything that has happened this week is not going to have much of an impact beyond the political class in this country, particularly in August during a global pandemic. However, hobbling the new leader of the Conservative Party out of the gate will be to his advantage in the coming weeks and months.
Instead, they are talking about the prorogation of Parliament and crapping on the Prime Minister for doing it. Oh yes, some are also questioning the qualifications of our new Finance Minister.
In a previous post I indicated that the resignation of Bill Morneau, the appointment of Ms. Freeland has his replacement and the prorogation of Parliament have been in the planning stages for a few weeks and that none of what we have seen this week is an accident.
Justin Trudeau has always been very subtle when he plays politics. Make no mistake, the implementation of this plan this week was partially designed to bait the media into ignoring the Conservatives in the week leading up to the election of a new leader. He knows that everything that has happened this week is not going to have much of an impact beyond the political class in this country, particularly in August during a global pandemic. However, hobbling the new leader of the Conservative Party out of the gate will be to his advantage in the coming weeks and months.
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
If an Election is Held in the Fall Who Would Win?
I do not believe we will see an election this Fall. None of the Opposition Parties really want one, for various reasons, and the Liberals under Mr. Trudeau have focused on governing largely avoided overt political maneuvering. So, the PM will probably not take the short walk to see the Governor General unless he loses the confidence of The House.
However, let's say the Opposition Parties do decide to bring down the government. Who would win the election?
It should come as no surprise that I believe in such a situation the Liberals would form the government yet again. Many would say that, as a Liberal supporter, that I am biased. I am aware of that bias and I have taken it into account. As well, my bias did not prevent me from predicting that the Ontario Liberals would suffer a massive defeat in 2018, on the night that they won their last majority government in 2013.
The basis of my assertion is historical voting patterns. It is truly remarkable how they have been constant for the last century. One feature of the patterns is federal governments tend to last about eight years. Joe Clark's and John Diefenbaker's governments were notable exceptions but otherwise the pattern has held since before the First World War.
The Trudeau government will have been in power less than five years this Fall well short of the usual eight years. That seems to be the cut off. After eight years a government is operating on borrowed time. Sometimes they can govern for significantly longer but all of the stars have to align for that to happen. Most of the time though, if a party has been the government for eight years they will be looking at losing the next election, whenever it happens.
The second historical voting pattern is the voters of Ontario like to have governments of opposing parties in Ottawa and Queens Park. There is currently a Conservative government in Ontario so Ontario voters will probably continue to support the Liberals over the CPC and if that happens the Liberals win, with their level of support in the other provinces deciding whether they win a minority or a majority government.
Those two historical voting patterns put the Liberals in a good position if an election is held this Fall without taking into account any other factors. Add in the many problems of the Opposition Parties and the fact we are still dealing with a global pandemic their advantage increases. Finally, as I stated in my previous post the Liberals are going to produce a very progressive Speech and Budget that will probably appeal to a significant number of the 60% of the Canadian electorate that call themselves progressive. Who knows how non-aligned voters will react but unless the Opposition Parties can come up with a more credible plan many of those non-aligned voters will probably vote for the stability currently offered by the Liberals.
For the Liberals to lose the next election two historical voting patterns have to break down. Although that is certainly a possibility the probability of it happening is low. Add the troubles of the Opposition Parties and the ongoing global pandemic any election held this Fall would probably result in a Liberal victory. I really cannot say how big that victory would be but regardless of what happens this Fall I would say the Liberals will still be the government at this time in 2021.
However, let's say the Opposition Parties do decide to bring down the government. Who would win the election?
It should come as no surprise that I believe in such a situation the Liberals would form the government yet again. Many would say that, as a Liberal supporter, that I am biased. I am aware of that bias and I have taken it into account. As well, my bias did not prevent me from predicting that the Ontario Liberals would suffer a massive defeat in 2018, on the night that they won their last majority government in 2013.
The basis of my assertion is historical voting patterns. It is truly remarkable how they have been constant for the last century. One feature of the patterns is federal governments tend to last about eight years. Joe Clark's and John Diefenbaker's governments were notable exceptions but otherwise the pattern has held since before the First World War.
The Trudeau government will have been in power less than five years this Fall well short of the usual eight years. That seems to be the cut off. After eight years a government is operating on borrowed time. Sometimes they can govern for significantly longer but all of the stars have to align for that to happen. Most of the time though, if a party has been the government for eight years they will be looking at losing the next election, whenever it happens.
The second historical voting pattern is the voters of Ontario like to have governments of opposing parties in Ottawa and Queens Park. There is currently a Conservative government in Ontario so Ontario voters will probably continue to support the Liberals over the CPC and if that happens the Liberals win, with their level of support in the other provinces deciding whether they win a minority or a majority government.
Those two historical voting patterns put the Liberals in a good position if an election is held this Fall without taking into account any other factors. Add in the many problems of the Opposition Parties and the fact we are still dealing with a global pandemic their advantage increases. Finally, as I stated in my previous post the Liberals are going to produce a very progressive Speech and Budget that will probably appeal to a significant number of the 60% of the Canadian electorate that call themselves progressive. Who knows how non-aligned voters will react but unless the Opposition Parties can come up with a more credible plan many of those non-aligned voters will probably vote for the stability currently offered by the Liberals.
For the Liberals to lose the next election two historical voting patterns have to break down. Although that is certainly a possibility the probability of it happening is low. Add the troubles of the Opposition Parties and the ongoing global pandemic any election held this Fall would probably result in a Liberal victory. I really cannot say how big that victory would be but regardless of what happens this Fall I would say the Liberals will still be the government at this time in 2021.
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Opportunities Coming Out of the Pandemic, part two
So it is official. Justin Trudeau has prorogued Parliament until September 23.
On that date there will be a Speech from the Throne and then very soon afterward I would expect that there will be a budget. If the PM is to be believed, during his announcement today, both will be the most progressive that this country will have ever seen and they will address some issues that otherwise would not be addressed in normal times.
Alot of people, including me, are hoping for a little boldness from them as one of the perverse effects of this pandemic is a more general acceptance of government spending. All of the economic measures introduced during the pandemic have all been well received, despite the efforts of some on the Conservative side at discrediting them, and the massive deficit needed to finance them was greeting with a collective shrug. There might actually be an opportunity to accelerate the relegation of the Conservative Consensus into the dustbin of history.
Politically, this is a shrewd move. Yes, the resignation of the Mr. Morneau and the stigma surrounding prorogation (caused by Stephen Harper's abuse of the procedure) will cause some short term pain for the Liberals. However, some choice bits of the speech and budget will be leaked in the coming weeks to get people talking about them and then when they are tabled in Parliament the Opposition will have the choice of supporting them or voting against them and bringing down the government. If I am Justin Trudeau I would be quite pleased with running an election based on two documents officially tabled in Parliament, particularly since I believe they will be a comprehensive medium to long-term plan for facilitating the economic recovery of Canada after the pandemic. On the other hand, the Opposition Parties would have some explaining to do if they voted such a plan down and stating "PM bad and scandals" as the reason would probably not impress non-partisan voters, the voters who actually decide elections.
Finally, as I stated in my previous post the events of the day essentially stomped on any efforts to generate any buzz or excitement around the election of the new leader of the CPC. Justin Trudeau laid a trap for the Conservative media and they appear to be falling into it. He also trolled the Conservatives very well. Without excitement and buzz the selection of the new leader, regardless of who it is, will be largely ignored, particularly during the final weeks of the summer, during a global pandemic and with back-to-school anxiety ratcheting up across the country.
I am hoping that the Trudeau Liberals realize the once in a lifetime opportunity that they have for addressing a whole host of issues that they would otherwise not be able to address in normal times. I am hoping that the Throne Speech and the Budget are reasonably bold documents, although I do realize that there will still be economic and political constraints. I am hoping that sanity will prevail in at least one Opposition Party so that we can get on with dealing with these issues, although I would not be too displeased if that sanity did not prevail and the Liberals could fight an election based on these two documents. If that were to happen I would like their chances very much.
On that date there will be a Speech from the Throne and then very soon afterward I would expect that there will be a budget. If the PM is to be believed, during his announcement today, both will be the most progressive that this country will have ever seen and they will address some issues that otherwise would not be addressed in normal times.
Alot of people, including me, are hoping for a little boldness from them as one of the perverse effects of this pandemic is a more general acceptance of government spending. All of the economic measures introduced during the pandemic have all been well received, despite the efforts of some on the Conservative side at discrediting them, and the massive deficit needed to finance them was greeting with a collective shrug. There might actually be an opportunity to accelerate the relegation of the Conservative Consensus into the dustbin of history.
Politically, this is a shrewd move. Yes, the resignation of the Mr. Morneau and the stigma surrounding prorogation (caused by Stephen Harper's abuse of the procedure) will cause some short term pain for the Liberals. However, some choice bits of the speech and budget will be leaked in the coming weeks to get people talking about them and then when they are tabled in Parliament the Opposition will have the choice of supporting them or voting against them and bringing down the government. If I am Justin Trudeau I would be quite pleased with running an election based on two documents officially tabled in Parliament, particularly since I believe they will be a comprehensive medium to long-term plan for facilitating the economic recovery of Canada after the pandemic. On the other hand, the Opposition Parties would have some explaining to do if they voted such a plan down and stating "PM bad and scandals" as the reason would probably not impress non-partisan voters, the voters who actually decide elections.
Finally, as I stated in my previous post the events of the day essentially stomped on any efforts to generate any buzz or excitement around the election of the new leader of the CPC. Justin Trudeau laid a trap for the Conservative media and they appear to be falling into it. He also trolled the Conservatives very well. Without excitement and buzz the selection of the new leader, regardless of who it is, will be largely ignored, particularly during the final weeks of the summer, during a global pandemic and with back-to-school anxiety ratcheting up across the country.
I am hoping that the Trudeau Liberals realize the once in a lifetime opportunity that they have for addressing a whole host of issues that they would otherwise not be able to address in normal times. I am hoping that the Throne Speech and the Budget are reasonably bold documents, although I do realize that there will still be economic and political constraints. I am hoping that sanity will prevail in at least one Opposition Party so that we can get on with dealing with these issues, although I would not be too displeased if that sanity did not prevail and the Liberals could fight an election based on these two documents. If that were to happen I would like their chances very much.
The Resignation of Bill Morneau - Updated
Well, there certainly has been alot of excitement on the Canadian political scene today, or at least excitement for the political class. Everybody else that lives south of Laurier Avenue probably does not care that much.
There is no denying that the loss of a Finance Minister is a blow for any government but let's maintain our sense of proportion. The Finance Minister post is vitally important to the government but the person who occupies that post is not as important. I would wager a fair amount of money that most Canadians would not be able to pick Bill Morneau out of a lineup. Paul Martin was the last Finance Minister who people knew well but that was only because he had his own power base within the Liberal Party and ambitions to lead it. Bill Morneau had none of that.
So why did he leave?
Well, we can take him at his word that he never planned on sticking around for more than two terms. In other words, he had no plans or desire to fight a third election. In that case, with the Liberals being a minority government, and that third election being possible at any time, he would want to leave while no prospect of an election is imminent. So leaving now makes sense.
There is also the notion that Mr. Moreau and the PM might have had irreconcilable differences over the handling of the pandemic and the recovery plan. That is possible but the Prime Minister's style is one of consensus as opposed to dictating what he wants so I am certain they would have worked something out.
The WE issue could have lead to his resignation. That is probably the angle the Opposition and the media will pursue but I doubt that is the case. I have seen government ministers being forced to resign over scandal and they are always preceded by weeks of controversy dogging the minister. That did not happen here. He had a moment of controversy a few weeks ago, each Opposition Party leader called for his removal but not consistently and there was some rumblings in the media but there was never any of the relentless pressure that we have seen in the past.
He was fired. No. See the my last point.
Remarkably, politicians usually do not tell you the whole story but what they do tell you is usually true. So, if Mr. Morneau indicated that he was never interested in being a professional politician then that is probably the real story.
So let's talk about the timing of his resignation.
First, he did not decide to resign yesterday morning. That decision was made weeks ago and he probably informed the PM of it when he made it. It then became a question of when would be the best time for him to announce his resignation and how to coordinate that with installing his replacement. The fact his replacement was announced the morning after demonstrates that. As well, no government makes the decision to prorogue Parliament the night before. When Mr. Morneau told the PM he would be leaving that set the wheels in motion for what we saw this morning.
Why did they choose yesterday? The immediate economic crisis caused by the pandemic is behind us. For the past few weeks the economy has been showing signs of recovery. In short, the current economic situation can be described as serious but stable. Mr. Morneau steered the country's finances through the initial crisis but now the government is looking towards the recovery plan and the opportunities it presents. However, the duration of the recovery plan can probably be measured in years, which was probably well beyond the time Mr. Moreau wanted to remain in politics. So now is a good time to hand off the torch. Nothing big is going to happen from a financial perspective for at least two months so leaving now will allow for a smoother transition to the recovery plan without unduly threatening the country's finances.
As well, the government probably wanted to prorogue Parliament so that they can present their recovery plan in a Throne Speech, followed by a budget and his resignation can be seen as a catalyst for that. Make no mistake, the Opposition and the media will spin this in the most disadvantageous manner for the government but it is mid-August, only the most partisan are going to care.
Finally, I think Justin Trudeau just trolled the Conservatives. They have been running a leadership campaign that has been described, by Conservative supporters in the media, as being a dud. With the announcement of the new leader on Sunday this would be the week for the Conservative media to try to generate some buzz. There would be long pieces on each of the contenders and speculative but very positive pieces on the potential new direction of the Conservative Party. Now all of that is going to be stomped on by the news of last night and today. On Sunday, without the excitement of a convention, the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada will be announced and I would bet that very few people will notice. The biggest reason why a political party may enjoy a bounce in the polls, after selecting a new leader, is the buzz and excitement leading up to the selection. The actual announcement is usually anti-climatic. That excitement has been missing since the contest started and any efforts to create it this week will probably be lost in the media din around the events of the last 24 hours. As the media spends the next few days focusing on spinning the last 24 hours they will be pushing the upcoming CPC announcement down the priority list, making it even harder for the Conservative Party to get people to notice they have elected a new leader, That would have been hard enough anyway because they decided to make this announcement during the dog days of summer, which is a bad time to do it at any time, let alone during a global pandemic. Now it is even harder.
No government likes to lose a senior minister but if one decides to leave there is really not much that a government can do about it. All they can do is attempt to mitigate any negative fallout that might come from it. It remains to be seen if they managed to do that with the way Mr. Morneau resigned but you cannot fault the effort we have seen them put into achieving that objective, in the last few hours.
Update: The Opposition Parties might regret Mr. Morneau's resignation because his replacement is the most capable minister in the government, Chrystia Freeland. The last time the Liberals had a dynamic duo like they do now was Chretien and Martin and they governed for 11 straight years. The difference is Ms. Freeland is not as baldly ambitious as Paul Martin was so we would probably be saved from the Liberal soap opera the media so liked to push back then.
There is no denying that the loss of a Finance Minister is a blow for any government but let's maintain our sense of proportion. The Finance Minister post is vitally important to the government but the person who occupies that post is not as important. I would wager a fair amount of money that most Canadians would not be able to pick Bill Morneau out of a lineup. Paul Martin was the last Finance Minister who people knew well but that was only because he had his own power base within the Liberal Party and ambitions to lead it. Bill Morneau had none of that.
So why did he leave?
Well, we can take him at his word that he never planned on sticking around for more than two terms. In other words, he had no plans or desire to fight a third election. In that case, with the Liberals being a minority government, and that third election being possible at any time, he would want to leave while no prospect of an election is imminent. So leaving now makes sense.
There is also the notion that Mr. Moreau and the PM might have had irreconcilable differences over the handling of the pandemic and the recovery plan. That is possible but the Prime Minister's style is one of consensus as opposed to dictating what he wants so I am certain they would have worked something out.
The WE issue could have lead to his resignation. That is probably the angle the Opposition and the media will pursue but I doubt that is the case. I have seen government ministers being forced to resign over scandal and they are always preceded by weeks of controversy dogging the minister. That did not happen here. He had a moment of controversy a few weeks ago, each Opposition Party leader called for his removal but not consistently and there was some rumblings in the media but there was never any of the relentless pressure that we have seen in the past.
He was fired. No. See the my last point.
Remarkably, politicians usually do not tell you the whole story but what they do tell you is usually true. So, if Mr. Morneau indicated that he was never interested in being a professional politician then that is probably the real story.
So let's talk about the timing of his resignation.
First, he did not decide to resign yesterday morning. That decision was made weeks ago and he probably informed the PM of it when he made it. It then became a question of when would be the best time for him to announce his resignation and how to coordinate that with installing his replacement. The fact his replacement was announced the morning after demonstrates that. As well, no government makes the decision to prorogue Parliament the night before. When Mr. Morneau told the PM he would be leaving that set the wheels in motion for what we saw this morning.
Why did they choose yesterday? The immediate economic crisis caused by the pandemic is behind us. For the past few weeks the economy has been showing signs of recovery. In short, the current economic situation can be described as serious but stable. Mr. Morneau steered the country's finances through the initial crisis but now the government is looking towards the recovery plan and the opportunities it presents. However, the duration of the recovery plan can probably be measured in years, which was probably well beyond the time Mr. Moreau wanted to remain in politics. So now is a good time to hand off the torch. Nothing big is going to happen from a financial perspective for at least two months so leaving now will allow for a smoother transition to the recovery plan without unduly threatening the country's finances.
As well, the government probably wanted to prorogue Parliament so that they can present their recovery plan in a Throne Speech, followed by a budget and his resignation can be seen as a catalyst for that. Make no mistake, the Opposition and the media will spin this in the most disadvantageous manner for the government but it is mid-August, only the most partisan are going to care.
Finally, I think Justin Trudeau just trolled the Conservatives. They have been running a leadership campaign that has been described, by Conservative supporters in the media, as being a dud. With the announcement of the new leader on Sunday this would be the week for the Conservative media to try to generate some buzz. There would be long pieces on each of the contenders and speculative but very positive pieces on the potential new direction of the Conservative Party. Now all of that is going to be stomped on by the news of last night and today. On Sunday, without the excitement of a convention, the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada will be announced and I would bet that very few people will notice. The biggest reason why a political party may enjoy a bounce in the polls, after selecting a new leader, is the buzz and excitement leading up to the selection. The actual announcement is usually anti-climatic. That excitement has been missing since the contest started and any efforts to create it this week will probably be lost in the media din around the events of the last 24 hours. As the media spends the next few days focusing on spinning the last 24 hours they will be pushing the upcoming CPC announcement down the priority list, making it even harder for the Conservative Party to get people to notice they have elected a new leader, That would have been hard enough anyway because they decided to make this announcement during the dog days of summer, which is a bad time to do it at any time, let alone during a global pandemic. Now it is even harder.
No government likes to lose a senior minister but if one decides to leave there is really not much that a government can do about it. All they can do is attempt to mitigate any negative fallout that might come from it. It remains to be seen if they managed to do that with the way Mr. Morneau resigned but you cannot fault the effort we have seen them put into achieving that objective, in the last few hours.
Update: The Opposition Parties might regret Mr. Morneau's resignation because his replacement is the most capable minister in the government, Chrystia Freeland. The last time the Liberals had a dynamic duo like they do now was Chretien and Martin and they governed for 11 straight years. The difference is Ms. Freeland is not as baldly ambitious as Paul Martin was so we would probably be saved from the Liberal soap opera the media so liked to push back then.
Thursday, August 13, 2020
The Diminishing of the Federal NDP
I am old enough to say that I have been observing politics for almost 40 years. So I remember when the Federal NDP were a force in Canadian politics. Yes they never held power but I remember when Ed Broadbent lead a third place political party that could convince Pierre Trudeau to adopt policies that they might not have done otherwise and this was when the former PM was leading a majority government. The NDP at that time seemed to always be able to punch above its weight and everybody respected the party because it always seemed to oppose the government on principle. Also Ed Broadbent knew how to effectively oppose the government, something none of the current crop of Opposition leaders seems to have figured out.
I often feel sad that the old NDP is gone to be replaced by the current party which does not seem to have any principles and has been completely ineffective as an opposition party. I know some NDP partisans seem to believe that they have "forced" the current Liberal government to adopt some of their polices but they have been saying that for as long as I can remember and it is simply untrue. Since the last election the Liberals have managed to convince all of the opposition parties to support the government at least once during this parliament.
So why has the NDP fallen so badly?
The simple answer is power corrupts, or in this case believing that you are close to achieving power corrupts.
In 1993 the Canadians political scene saw a sea-change. The Liberals roared into power as the revulsion towards the Mulroney Tories manifested itself at the ballot box on election day 1993. When the dust settled the old Tory Party was virtually destroyed, the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party exploded onto the scene and the NDP did not win enough seats to achieve official party status.
Thus began a decade of futility for the NDP, which went through three leaders in two elections. They languished as the fourth party in Parliament for that whole time and it seemed that they would stay there for quite some time.
Then they selected Jack Layton as leader of the Party and the Liberal government, which was getting very long in the tooth anyway , became mired in the Sponsorship Scandal. (Note that was a true scandal and they deserved their fate for it.) Suddenly, NDP fortunes picked up and the NDP began feeling good about itself again. In 2004 and in 2006 the NDP picked up more seats and then in 2011 they became the Official Opposition, supplanting the Liberals in that role. Many NDP partisans have pretty much sainted Mr. Layton for that feat but I have always thought they have overstated his achievement. In reality all he did was lead the NDP to Official Opposition status opposite a majority government, one of the most frustrating positions to find yourself in the Canadian political system. But now they believed that they were the "government in waiting" and that they would finally gain power in 2015.
Then the unthinkable happened. The Liberals roared past them, relegating them to the third party yet again and they did not like it. They believed their time had come, that it was their turn and they did not take their fate very well at all. Any vestiges of their principles that they had left went out the window as they tried everything to regain their old position and have another shot at governing and people noticed. The 2019 election saw their caucus cut in half and although some of that would have been people deciding to vote strategically to prevent a Conservative government that has always been overstated in Canada. The reason for that reduction was Canadians turning away from the NDP.
Many have condemned Mr. Singh for his political tactics but I would assert that they predate him. They began when Mr. Layton won the leadership because he decided that the NDP would cease to be the "conscience" of the Canadian political scene and become a political party that would shoot for power. From his election to the present the NDP have continued to place the pursuit of power over principle. 2011 convinced them that they have an actual shot at it when all evidence and eight decades of historical voting patterns indicate that they are deluded themselves. As long as this delusion persists the NDP will remain where they are and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they will suffer the same fate as the NDP did in 1993.
The NDP is not the same party as it was 40 years ago. Of course, none of the parties are but the current NDP has diminished itself by blind ambition and more and more Canadians are noticing.
I often feel sad that the old NDP is gone to be replaced by the current party which does not seem to have any principles and has been completely ineffective as an opposition party. I know some NDP partisans seem to believe that they have "forced" the current Liberal government to adopt some of their polices but they have been saying that for as long as I can remember and it is simply untrue. Since the last election the Liberals have managed to convince all of the opposition parties to support the government at least once during this parliament.
So why has the NDP fallen so badly?
The simple answer is power corrupts, or in this case believing that you are close to achieving power corrupts.
In 1993 the Canadians political scene saw a sea-change. The Liberals roared into power as the revulsion towards the Mulroney Tories manifested itself at the ballot box on election day 1993. When the dust settled the old Tory Party was virtually destroyed, the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party exploded onto the scene and the NDP did not win enough seats to achieve official party status.
Thus began a decade of futility for the NDP, which went through three leaders in two elections. They languished as the fourth party in Parliament for that whole time and it seemed that they would stay there for quite some time.
Then they selected Jack Layton as leader of the Party and the Liberal government, which was getting very long in the tooth anyway , became mired in the Sponsorship Scandal. (Note that was a true scandal and they deserved their fate for it.) Suddenly, NDP fortunes picked up and the NDP began feeling good about itself again. In 2004 and in 2006 the NDP picked up more seats and then in 2011 they became the Official Opposition, supplanting the Liberals in that role. Many NDP partisans have pretty much sainted Mr. Layton for that feat but I have always thought they have overstated his achievement. In reality all he did was lead the NDP to Official Opposition status opposite a majority government, one of the most frustrating positions to find yourself in the Canadian political system. But now they believed that they were the "government in waiting" and that they would finally gain power in 2015.
Then the unthinkable happened. The Liberals roared past them, relegating them to the third party yet again and they did not like it. They believed their time had come, that it was their turn and they did not take their fate very well at all. Any vestiges of their principles that they had left went out the window as they tried everything to regain their old position and have another shot at governing and people noticed. The 2019 election saw their caucus cut in half and although some of that would have been people deciding to vote strategically to prevent a Conservative government that has always been overstated in Canada. The reason for that reduction was Canadians turning away from the NDP.
Many have condemned Mr. Singh for his political tactics but I would assert that they predate him. They began when Mr. Layton won the leadership because he decided that the NDP would cease to be the "conscience" of the Canadian political scene and become a political party that would shoot for power. From his election to the present the NDP have continued to place the pursuit of power over principle. 2011 convinced them that they have an actual shot at it when all evidence and eight decades of historical voting patterns indicate that they are deluded themselves. As long as this delusion persists the NDP will remain where they are and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they will suffer the same fate as the NDP did in 1993.
The NDP is not the same party as it was 40 years ago. Of course, none of the parties are but the current NDP has diminished itself by blind ambition and more and more Canadians are noticing.
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Opportunities Coming Out of the Pandemic
The COVID 19 pandemic has been disastrous for many countries and Canada has not been spared. Thousands of Canadians are dead who would probably not have died this year without the virus and the Canadian economy took a major hit. Recent economic data has shown that the economy could be on the road to recovery but it is a fragile recovery at this time and it cannot be taken for granted.
Despite that all things come to an end and this pandemic will end at some point. At that point the true recovery will begin and there will be a great opportunity to shape that recovery in such a way as to handle a whole host of issues, including climate change, poverty and income inequality, just to name a few.
It would seem that the Trudeau government is planning on doing just that. Lost in all of the hubbub around WE was an announcement a few weeks ago about converting the CERB into a Employment Insurance Program for the 21st Century. Then a few days ago, buried in the news, was an announcement that further programs to address a whole host of issues would be included in an economic update scheduled for the Fall, although I would guess that it will be pretty close to a full blown budget as we still have not had one yet. Part of that announcement was some of the programs and policies that will be included in the update will be announced in August 2020, which is this month.
Further, the Trudeau government announced that they were hiring Mark Carney as an advisor for planning the economic recovery post-pandemic.
So, while the Opposition and the media have been playing political games the Government is planning the recovery and they are planning on using the opportunity presented by it to address all sorts of issues they would not have been able to address in normal times. And they would not be floating this idea if they did not believe Canadians are ready for that kind of bold thinking. One thing that the government reaction to the pandemic has demonstrated is Canadians seem to be OK with government spending and they might even be getting used to it in sufficient numbers as to accept the costs of the programs that will be proposed.
This is probably not lost on the Opposition Parties. One of the key people to plan this recovery is the Finance Minister, which is why they are so horny to have him resign or be fired. If he were to leave their plans would be greatly disrupted, which is why I would be very surprised to see him leave.
As well, Mr. Blanchette announced today that he would move a non-confidence motion at the first opportunity in the Fall, again unless Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Morneau (and Ms. Telford for some reason) resigned, to bring down the government and trigger an election. The reason is simple. If the government announces all sorts of new programs, in a Fall budget, that will address many issues important to Canadians it would be very hard just to prevent the Liberals from winning a majority government let alone beating the Liberals. In 2000, Paul Martin brought in a budget that included $100 billion in tax cuts. After that budget was passed Jean Chretien called an election, ran on that budget, and went from a 4 seat majority government to a 20 seat majority government.
The Opposition would like to prevent that. Certainly, if they do the Liberals will just have an election platform with all of the measures they would include in the Fall budget but it would not have the weight of a government bill behind it. It would just be an election platform.
So, in October we will either see an election or the Government will introduce, pass and begin to implement a budget that could put the country on a very different economic and financial path than before the pandemic. I do not envy the position of the Opposition Parties. If they trigger an election before a budget but during a pandemic voters might not be too pleased with them. However, if they let the budget drop, and it is well received, then triggering an election by voting it down, during a pandemic, might not please voters either. I imagine they will continue to fling their own feces at the government over the coming weeks because it would appear that none of them have actually given much thought on how to manage the economic recovery after the pandemic.
Regardless of the machinations of the Opposition Parties and their media cheerleaders it is interesting that the government is looking at the current situation as an opportunity create some good out of it. I also am pleased that they actually seem to be thinking about and planning for a post pandemic world. This government has been the most progressive government that I can remember and I am looking forward to what they have to offer for the recovery of the Canadian economy after the pandemic.
Despite that all things come to an end and this pandemic will end at some point. At that point the true recovery will begin and there will be a great opportunity to shape that recovery in such a way as to handle a whole host of issues, including climate change, poverty and income inequality, just to name a few.
It would seem that the Trudeau government is planning on doing just that. Lost in all of the hubbub around WE was an announcement a few weeks ago about converting the CERB into a Employment Insurance Program for the 21st Century. Then a few days ago, buried in the news, was an announcement that further programs to address a whole host of issues would be included in an economic update scheduled for the Fall, although I would guess that it will be pretty close to a full blown budget as we still have not had one yet. Part of that announcement was some of the programs and policies that will be included in the update will be announced in August 2020, which is this month.
Further, the Trudeau government announced that they were hiring Mark Carney as an advisor for planning the economic recovery post-pandemic.
So, while the Opposition and the media have been playing political games the Government is planning the recovery and they are planning on using the opportunity presented by it to address all sorts of issues they would not have been able to address in normal times. And they would not be floating this idea if they did not believe Canadians are ready for that kind of bold thinking. One thing that the government reaction to the pandemic has demonstrated is Canadians seem to be OK with government spending and they might even be getting used to it in sufficient numbers as to accept the costs of the programs that will be proposed.
This is probably not lost on the Opposition Parties. One of the key people to plan this recovery is the Finance Minister, which is why they are so horny to have him resign or be fired. If he were to leave their plans would be greatly disrupted, which is why I would be very surprised to see him leave.
As well, Mr. Blanchette announced today that he would move a non-confidence motion at the first opportunity in the Fall, again unless Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Morneau (and Ms. Telford for some reason) resigned, to bring down the government and trigger an election. The reason is simple. If the government announces all sorts of new programs, in a Fall budget, that will address many issues important to Canadians it would be very hard just to prevent the Liberals from winning a majority government let alone beating the Liberals. In 2000, Paul Martin brought in a budget that included $100 billion in tax cuts. After that budget was passed Jean Chretien called an election, ran on that budget, and went from a 4 seat majority government to a 20 seat majority government.
The Opposition would like to prevent that. Certainly, if they do the Liberals will just have an election platform with all of the measures they would include in the Fall budget but it would not have the weight of a government bill behind it. It would just be an election platform.
So, in October we will either see an election or the Government will introduce, pass and begin to implement a budget that could put the country on a very different economic and financial path than before the pandemic. I do not envy the position of the Opposition Parties. If they trigger an election before a budget but during a pandemic voters might not be too pleased with them. However, if they let the budget drop, and it is well received, then triggering an election by voting it down, during a pandemic, might not please voters either. I imagine they will continue to fling their own feces at the government over the coming weeks because it would appear that none of them have actually given much thought on how to manage the economic recovery after the pandemic.
Regardless of the machinations of the Opposition Parties and their media cheerleaders it is interesting that the government is looking at the current situation as an opportunity create some good out of it. I also am pleased that they actually seem to be thinking about and planning for a post pandemic world. This government has been the most progressive government that I can remember and I am looking forward to what they have to offer for the recovery of the Canadian economy after the pandemic.
Sunday, August 02, 2020
Time for Another Comment on Not Trusting Polls
Anybody that has read my posts before knows that I do not trust the public polls. Having been in the survey business, during my career, I know that designing and conducting surveys is as much art as science. I also know that there are ways to crank survey results that still meet the accepted standards for doing surveys.
Companies do not use polls to make money they use them as a marketing tool because there is no money in conducting polls. If a polling company is conducting a poll on behalf of a media company it is usually on a cost-recovery basis and the media company will want estimates that will allow it to support whatever narrative they are pushing. If a polling company is doing a poll just to do a poll they are spending their own money on it so they will be as economical as they can be, in which case it becomes a situation of "You get what you pay for."
As well, do not get me started on poll aggregates and seat models. There are no industry standards for them so how they create their models is totally up to the modeler and none of them are without bias. I remember during the last election a poll came out that was very favourable to the Liberals and when I went to check a certain seat model, that shall remain nameless, that poll was not included on the list of polls used to create the model. No reason was given of course but the polling company was one of those companies with a generally good reputation so it was a mystery as to why it was excluded.
Which brings me to the polls we have been seeing for the past few months. Many Liberals cheered on the Liberals' rise in the polls as the pandemic unfolded. Now the Liberals are sinking in the public polls and many Liberals are worried, citing the WE issue as being the problem. I am not so certain that WE is the culprit as it has been in the news for a month and it had no impact on the public polls until week four. Seems odd to me and a little convenient.
At any rate, good or bad, none of that really matters. I have always said if you want to see what the true state of politics is in the country watch the political parties.
The Liberals are just doing their job as the government. You would not have known the polls, during the spring, were saying they could win more that 200 seats. On the other hand when the WE issue hit they did not try to change the channel like alot of governments do when they find themselves having to deal with controversy. Again they have just been doing their job.
The Opposition Parties on the other hand have been having conniption fits. Even before the WE controversy they have been trying to create some kind of scandal. Anybody remember the Harrington Lake issue a few short weeks ago? Their desperation has been palpable for awhile.
The reason is simple. The Liberals and the Conservatives and maybe the NDP keep polling and data analytics teams on retainer. They would have continued to do so to help them fine tune their message and they are not just the minimalist, superficial polls like the public polls. They do in depth data analysis using the latest data analytics techniques.
What would these data be telling the the parties. My guess for the Liberals is they did get a boost from their handling of the pandemic and its economic fallout. More importantly I believe the data is telling them that the favourable opinion of the government is hardening as time goes on. They expect some fluctuation but it will be from a higher baseline than just a few months ago. As this situation continues it will only harden more because change in public opinion is glacial. It does not change quickly. Further I would bet that their internal data are telling them that the issue most important to Canadians is the pandemic. Other issues are well down on the list of concerns. So, all they need to do is stay the course. It is the best course for winning the next election.
The problem for the Conservatives and maybe the NDP (if the have the money for internal polling) is their data is probably telling them the same thing. They know the longer this situation goes on the harder it will be to bring that baseline back down to just prevent the Liberals from winning a majority government, let alone unseating them as the government. Hence, the increasingly strident attacks on the Liberals, about everything and anything they can think of. They need some issue, besides the pandemic, to break through the consciousness of Canadians. To make things worse they are dealing with a minority government, which does not give them the luxury of time in which to do it. Ironically, if we had a majority government there would not be the same urgency as there is now.
So, as usual, I would say ignore the polls. They are not reliable in really assessing the political situation in the country. Watch the parties and what they do. To the discerning eye they are a much better indicator of what is happening. Just watching them it looks like the Opposition Parties are in much greater trouble than the Liberals. That could change but for now I would say that is the situation.
Companies do not use polls to make money they use them as a marketing tool because there is no money in conducting polls. If a polling company is conducting a poll on behalf of a media company it is usually on a cost-recovery basis and the media company will want estimates that will allow it to support whatever narrative they are pushing. If a polling company is doing a poll just to do a poll they are spending their own money on it so they will be as economical as they can be, in which case it becomes a situation of "You get what you pay for."
As well, do not get me started on poll aggregates and seat models. There are no industry standards for them so how they create their models is totally up to the modeler and none of them are without bias. I remember during the last election a poll came out that was very favourable to the Liberals and when I went to check a certain seat model, that shall remain nameless, that poll was not included on the list of polls used to create the model. No reason was given of course but the polling company was one of those companies with a generally good reputation so it was a mystery as to why it was excluded.
Which brings me to the polls we have been seeing for the past few months. Many Liberals cheered on the Liberals' rise in the polls as the pandemic unfolded. Now the Liberals are sinking in the public polls and many Liberals are worried, citing the WE issue as being the problem. I am not so certain that WE is the culprit as it has been in the news for a month and it had no impact on the public polls until week four. Seems odd to me and a little convenient.
At any rate, good or bad, none of that really matters. I have always said if you want to see what the true state of politics is in the country watch the political parties.
The Liberals are just doing their job as the government. You would not have known the polls, during the spring, were saying they could win more that 200 seats. On the other hand when the WE issue hit they did not try to change the channel like alot of governments do when they find themselves having to deal with controversy. Again they have just been doing their job.
The Opposition Parties on the other hand have been having conniption fits. Even before the WE controversy they have been trying to create some kind of scandal. Anybody remember the Harrington Lake issue a few short weeks ago? Their desperation has been palpable for awhile.
The reason is simple. The Liberals and the Conservatives and maybe the NDP keep polling and data analytics teams on retainer. They would have continued to do so to help them fine tune their message and they are not just the minimalist, superficial polls like the public polls. They do in depth data analysis using the latest data analytics techniques.
What would these data be telling the the parties. My guess for the Liberals is they did get a boost from their handling of the pandemic and its economic fallout. More importantly I believe the data is telling them that the favourable opinion of the government is hardening as time goes on. They expect some fluctuation but it will be from a higher baseline than just a few months ago. As this situation continues it will only harden more because change in public opinion is glacial. It does not change quickly. Further I would bet that their internal data are telling them that the issue most important to Canadians is the pandemic. Other issues are well down on the list of concerns. So, all they need to do is stay the course. It is the best course for winning the next election.
The problem for the Conservatives and maybe the NDP (if the have the money for internal polling) is their data is probably telling them the same thing. They know the longer this situation goes on the harder it will be to bring that baseline back down to just prevent the Liberals from winning a majority government, let alone unseating them as the government. Hence, the increasingly strident attacks on the Liberals, about everything and anything they can think of. They need some issue, besides the pandemic, to break through the consciousness of Canadians. To make things worse they are dealing with a minority government, which does not give them the luxury of time in which to do it. Ironically, if we had a majority government there would not be the same urgency as there is now.
So, as usual, I would say ignore the polls. They are not reliable in really assessing the political situation in the country. Watch the parties and what they do. To the discerning eye they are a much better indicator of what is happening. Just watching them it looks like the Opposition Parties are in much greater trouble than the Liberals. That could change but for now I would say that is the situation.
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