I have read several reports in the media in the last few days indicating that the NDP is not in very good shape for the election. It is a matter of public record that financially the Party is having some serious financial difficulties.
The NDP spent to the limit in 2015, even though they did not have the money, in an effort to push themselves over the top. I guess at the time it seemed like a good idea because it seemed that they might actually have a shot. As it turned out they went back to their traditional place in Parliament and were left with a tremendous debt as their reward. Since political parties have to report their cash intake and spending to Elections Canada it is not hard to see that they do not have the money to run a full campaign this time around. Mr. Singh has a choice, run the full campaign and probably bankrupt the party in the process or run a more limited campaign.
One media outlet indicated that the NDP has chosen the latter. They are going to focus on ridings where they believe they can win and leave the rest alone. In other words a typical save the furniture campaign.
Although I usually take what the media tells me with a truckload of salt that report makes sense. Their resources seem to be extremely limited and if they spread them too thin they could lose it all. I believe they know this and they will be running a campaign with the goal of retaining official party status in the House of Commons. Unfortunately, this could be complicated by the fact that the Green Party seems to be enjoying an upswing, if we are to believe the polls, which I do not. However, if that is the case they will threaten to take votes away from the NDP, to the benefit of the Liberals. And make no mistake the Greens are not a threat to the Liberals. They are a threat to the NDP. If the Greens actually split the non-Liberal progressive vote as badly as current polls seem to indicate it is very possible that neither the NDP nor the Greens will attain official party status.
Although as the campaign goes on that may become less and less possible for the simple reason that the Greens are not conducting a true national campaign. It was bandied about the internet a few weeks ago that Ms. May retained the services of Warren Kinsella for a time. The only advice he should have given Ms. May is that if you want to run with the big boys you have to charter a plane to get around the country during the campaign. If you choose not to and just use commercial airlines very few people will take you seriously.
All of the above is bad news for the Conservatives of course. In the past 60 years the only time the Conservatives have won government was when the NDP has done well. If the NDP does not do well the Conservative do not do well. Many Conservatives won seats because the NDP and Liberals split the non-Conservative vote. If the NDP has a rough election, those splits could disappear making it way more difficult for the Conservatives. And that is before taking into account any impact that Mr. Bernier might have in Conservative ridings.
Mr. Singh will claim to be running a national campaign but behind the scenes it is very possible that the NDP will limit the expenditure of their resources during the election. For the first time since they came into existance there is a perceived replacement for them in the Green Party. The threat to the very existance of the NDP exists and the NDP will be looking more to address that threat during this election that pursuing the pipe dream of winning the election.
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The Greens are as much a mess as the NDP. They poached a Quebec nationalist from the NDP as though going after Bloc votes will somehow help them? May buckles under scrutiny and digs in her heels, indignant that criticism for her chaotic leadership and the lack of candidate vetting is a "distraction" from addressing climate change. "Why are you asking me about other issues if we're all going to die in 12 years?" Then why are you running for office if it's a foregone conclusion? Why do you have a political party, which requires a broad platform, instead of an activist group where you can focus on one issue of importance? Heck, why have elections at all?
The NDP are socialist also-rans and the Greens have no coherent policy other than their single-issue trademark of being the environmentalist party. She held her own at the MacLean's debate but came across as obnoxious as Scheer. This is why they both want PropRep so badly. In fact, one of the loudest vocal minorities clamoring for PropRep is the PPC. The fringe delegation wants so badly to hold an outsize role in the House and make a dog's breakfast of the process of forming government.
I still think a better option would be for the fringe delegation to fold and just insert themselves into the main parties. May is a catastrophe. The Greens need a new leader. They should mount a takeover of the Conservatives and push Harper and his Republican leftovers into exile. The "new" PCs (Green Tories) would still be kooky, but slightly less so and thankfully no longer beholden to the Alberta petro-cult of evangelical lunatics and other retrograde bigots. As it stands now the Conservatives stand for nothing but pumping oil, pleasing the rich, and fomenting hate.
The NDP should just give it up and become the AOC wing of the "Liberal Democrats." The only reason they don't is because they're still licking their wounds and nursing a grudge over being defeated by a Trudeau. They've gone full "horseshoe theory" as evidenced by Mulcair now lending op-eds to the Sun and campaign advice to Scheer.
Canada would be limited to two parties officially, but at least they'd be a saner version of the U.S. rather than the chaotic sh*t show of Italy and Israel. Every election comes down to a choice of Coke or Pepsi anyway. Might as well mix it up with a blend of Fanta and Mountain Dew.
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