Federal Election 2019: Week Two over - Alot of sizzle but very little steak

Week two of the election campaign got off to a interesting start with the leaking of the pictures of Prime Minister Trudeau in brown/black face at a party.  That gave the media, which was bored to tears by week one, something to talk about and something they could preach about, which most media love to do.  In the end I do not believe it had much impact on any of the campaigns.

For the Liberal campaign they did have to do some damage control but Mr. Trudeau's clear apology, provided within an hour of the release of the pictures went a long way towards that effort.  Believe it nor not most reasonable people realize that everybody makes mistakes and that if you acknowledge the mistake and try to be better they are willing to forgive if not forget.  That damage control effort lasted two whole days.  By Friday their campaign was returning to normal and by Sunday it was back to being focused and disciplined as it was in week 1.  As well, with the end of week two upon us they brought out their heavy guns.  The announcements on another tax cut, Pharmacare and their Climate Change announcement today are going to be their signature policy planks for this election.  I imagine between now and election day we are going to hear alot about all three.  We may hear some more minor announcements in week three but I believe the Liberal campaign is going to begin focusing on these three policy proposals.

The leak of the pictures of Mr. Trudeau, probably with foreknowledge of the Conservative campaign, has shone some light on their election strategy. They seem to realize that they cannot win without a strong showing by the NDP and/or the Greens.  Releasing a video and going all in on accusing him of being racist seems counter intuitive for the Conservatives.  They have their own bigotry problems, from their current leader, some of their supporters in the media and from their candidates.  As a result they were not in a great position to directly benefit from Mr. Trudeau's troubles.  However, if they could use it to siphon off some voters from the Liberals to the NDP or Greens then they might benefit.  It is actually not a bad strategy but if depends on the NDP and/or the Greens being able to exploit the opening presented to them.  They were unable to.  More on that in a moment.

Otherwise, the Conservative campaign has been more of the same.  Throw out some random policy ideas, many of which are just recycled Harper policies, insult and attack Justin Trudeau at every turn and lie their asses off.  Politics being what it is it could work but it is very risky.  Attacking the other guy to convince people to vote against him is a strategy as old as democratic politics but you also have to be able to show that you are a compelling alternative.  If you do not then you lose.  If you do not believe me ask Tim Hudak.  So far I am not convinced that Mr. Scheer is accomplishing this.  Last week several picture were published showing Mr. Scheer making announcements to empty rooms and football fields.  When it was questioned they indicated that they were forgoing rallies to allow potential attendees to knock on doors.  Interesting spin but I remember in 2006 Paul Martin had the same problem.  He had difficulty getting people out to his announcements. They were often him in a room full of reporters and that was it.  The fact is rallies and well attended policy announcements create buzz and energy for the campaign and those cannot be discounted.  As well, Mr. Scheer has not looked happy since the campaign started.  He has often looked miserable in fact.  Contrast that to Mr. Harper in 2006.  Although he did not jump for joy during that election there was a bounce in his step, which was probably because he could see that he had a very good chance that he would win.  Does Mr. Scheer feel the same way?  I am not getting that vibe from him.

The NDP was handed a gift by the Conservatives and they were unable to exploit it.  The reason is simple.  They are not running a full blown campaign.  As I have stated here before they are running a save the furniture campaign and it would appear they are not going to let themselves be distracted from that.  If there was no Green Party they might have changed tack but they have to worry about the Greens siphoning off their votes so they seem to be keeping their focus on a campaign to maintain official party status.

The Green Party has not changed anything from week one and their campaign during week one was invisible.  They may believe what the public polls are saying, which seem to indicate that may win up to 7 seats but those polls are going to change by election day and the Greens will probably find themselves back where they have always been.  Five to seven percent of the vote and Ms. May being the only Green MP.

Maxime Bernier is blowing his one chance to be relevant.  The Independent Debate Commission gave him instant credibility when they invited him to the debates but he has failed to exploit that.  As well, I still say his best shot at winning seats was to campaign in the Conservative ridings of Ontario and Quebec but he is not doing that either.  It could be he is worried about his own seat, in which case him and his party will be a non-factor come election day.

One note about the polls.  As I have stated often I put little stock in the polls.  However, some people do and the current state of the polls have them worried.  What needs to be understood is we have seen this before.

In 2015, with three weeks to go before the election the polls indicated that the three main parties were tied with the Conservatives having a bit of an upper hand.

In 2011, with three weeks to go before the election the polls indicated that the Ignatieff Liberals had a slight lead over the Harper Conservatives.  I remember how happy many Liberals were after week two of that election.

In 2008, with three weeks to go before the election the polls indicated that the Dion Liberals had a slight lead over the Conservatives.  Again, Liberals were quite pleased at that time.

Of course we all know how those elections turned out.  The point, of course, is that polls early in an election campaign cannot be used to predict, project, or otherwise guess the final outcome of the election.  Neither can polls at the end of the campaign for that matter.

Between now and election day Canadians will decide who they want to govern them.  We will not know that decision for certain until October 21.  I still believe it will be the Liberals that they choose, for many reasons, but we will know for certain in a little over three weeks.