Tuesday, October 20, 2009

A warning to Liberals

EKOS is scheduled to come out with a poll this Thursday. That poll is going to indicate that the Conservatives do not appear to have been harmed by the current Cheque-Gate scandal.

They may drop but if they do it will be within the margin of error (MOE). The same can be said of the Liberals. They may increase but again it will be within the margin of error. Then again the Conservatives could increase and the Liberals decrease but within the MOE.

One thing about these kinds of scandals is they do not have an immediate impact on the horse race estimates of polls. When Ms. Fraser broke Adscam, in a much more dramatic fashion than this scandal broke, the Liberals did not suffer an immediate hit in the polls and the Conservatives did not enjoy an immediate benefit. Indeed, throughout the three year Adscam saga the Liberals never trailed the Conservatives until the final three weeks of the 2006 election campaign.

What these kinds of scandals do is cause a slow burn in the electorate towards the party in power. It causes many to believe that a change may be in order, even those who continue to tell pollsters they support the government. In other words, these types of scandals sow the seeds of discontent amongst the electorate that can be reaped at a later date. As well, they create the impression in the electorate that the government may be corrupt, which then causes even the smallest transgression to become magnified. Witness David Dingwall's pack of gum to see that in action.

So, when the poll comes out on Thursday and you see that the estimates have not moved much please do not whine and cry about how the Conservatives are getting away with yet another scandal or how the Liberals are not taking advantage of this. The time will come when the seeds Mr. Harper and his members have planted this week will germinate and grow until they overwhelm them and they find themselves on the opposition benches looking over at PM Ignatieff.

However, if you really must obsess over the next polls then I would suggest you look at the undecideds. I would suspect that the estimate for that will increase at greater than the MOE.

6 Comments:

Blogger CanadianSense said...

Or instead of watching the polls look behind the trends and notes why the voters are not buying the 20+ scandals this year.

October 20, 2009 9:03 PM  
Blogger WesternGrit said...

Just saw BOTH Rick Mercer AND 22 Minutes SLAM Harper on this. The "I'm a PC/ I'm a Mac" ad is hilarious... And will catch on if we get it out there...

October 21, 2009 12:04 AM  
Blogger ********************Donas Kim Leaman said...

In a purely Canadian Sense,I know why the population is not all fired up about this. It's all there in the blog. Slow Burn is a good way to describe it.

I nearly started singing
"Burn Baby Burn,
Whennam I Gonna Get my Turn?"

A more fitting song than "I get High with a little Cheque from my Friends" any day!

Great blog, burn on! Be heard!

October 22, 2009 8:57 PM  
Blogger CanadianSense said...

Donas many of us, ex liberals voted for the Red Book. We vote for something a narrative of doing something different.

I was not supportive of big bailout for many of the projects this year CS in AB, Big 3 4700+projects.

The AG wil find mistakes and error and wasteful spending. Some people on blogs think it makes sense to blame only one party for mistakes.

I blame each party and each government for wasteful spending.

I wish you well Donas in your version of how voters have been reacting to the Liberal Party for the last ten months under new management.

October 22, 2009 9:05 PM  
Blogger ********************Donas Kim Leaman said...

Canadian Sense, That's all well and good. Change is sometimes a noble cause.
There are many out there who voted for Harper, who voted for, just such a change in Direction. He delivered a huge change in direction, but it had Nothing to do with Accountability, or Openness.

Hell, he is not even a Conservative, and his list of Inadequacies is long. He is a lackluster accountant, a sub par leader, hard to work with, in contempt of the courts, and today in contempt of the press. He is childlike, obstinate, etc. etc.

As much as I find it interesting that you still see him in a Good light,I just find that his skill-set generally lacks much of any real use to a Country so embedded in a World in Crisis.

I see no evidence that he is a World Leader. I see no evidence that he cares, not for you, not for me!

I am not watching the Polls I am Watching the Prime Minister.

burn baby burn!

October 22, 2009 10:18 PM  
Blogger CanadianSense said...

Donas that is fair, I don't have unrealistic expectations from my politicians.

I am a cynical person. I am happy with some of the changes and would have preferred if the Liberals were not so eager to have approved such a large stimulus.

I would have preferred Big 3 did not get $ 10 billion etc.

I did not vote for Harper because of his idealogy.

He made --->some promises<---- that I support and have kept them.

I am not buying the 1,000 "criticisms" from the opposition.

We will agree to disagree.

Thank you for your perspective.

October 22, 2009 11:07 PM  

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