Friday, September 25, 2009

Will Stephen Harper engineer his own defeat?

There has been some speculation on Liblogs and in some of the media that Mr. Harper may engineer his own defeat this Fall, likely by placing a poison pill within some kind of confidence motion.

I find this unlikely.

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are not lying when they say they do not want an election this Fall. There are several reasons for this.

Such issues as the partisan ads and partisan stimulus spending are issues that resonate with Canadians. Even if they are the recipients of such largesse most Canadians do not like governments using tax payers money for partisan purposes. As these issues are recent they would still be topical during a Fall election. The same will not be true in the Spring.

Their chief opponent is not the pushover it once was. The inter-writ ads with Mr. Ignatieff demonstrate that they have money to burn so they will be able to spend money during the next election dollar-for-dollar with the Conservatives. Analyses of the last election show that the Conservatives actually lost votes in 2006 compared to 2004 but the Liberals lost more because almost 1 million former supporters stayed home last fall. Now the Liberals seem to have a renewed purpose along with a leader who seems to have his stuff together so the Conservatives cannot count on Liberal supporters staying home on the next election day. I am not certain the same can be said of Conservative supporters. As I have stated before Stephen Harper seems to be spending a great deal of time throwing red meat to his base. A strange course of action at this stage of the game unless he fears that his support amongst his base may not be as solid as he would like. They would never vote Liberal or NDP of course, but they could just stay home as many Liberals did in 2006.

Then there is the NDP. They are not ready for an election and it is in Stephen Harper's interests to have a healthy and competitive NDP to pull votes away from the Liberals. As it stands now they will not do that.

This combined with the probable return of Liberal supporters to the polling booth puts between 40-50 Conservative seats in play plus another 20 NDP seats. This is not to say all of these seats will fall to the Liberals but the potential is there.

Now add a poison pill to the mix. By their very nature they are designed to piss off one or more parties opposing the government. So by extension, they will also piss off their supporters and depending on the poison pill it could alienate enough of the broader electorate to cost enough votes to cost another half-dozen seats. When governments engineer their own defeat they prefer to do it on something that is positive for them, such as good news budget. That will not happen until the Spring, which is when I expect the next window for an election will be.

Many people have pointed out the recent uptick on the polls for the Conservatives. However, it should be noted that they only returned to where they were in the last election. As well, this only came after almost 9 months where they were either trailing the Liberals or tied with them. For an engineered defeat to work he would need to see his party polling above the 40% range for a sustained period of time. Only then could he have a reasonable chance of surviving the inevitable decline in support that happens to all sitting government during election campaigns.

I do not believe we will see an election this Fall. The NDP does not want one so they will find an excuse to support the government. The Conservatives do not want one either so I do not believe they will try to goad the NDP into supporting the Liberals and the Bloc in any confidence motion.

Then again, Stephen Harper has demonstrated a political tin ear at crucial times on more than one occasion so he could decide to roll the dice anyway.

We will have to wait and see.

6 Comments:

Blogger CanadianSense said...

Why risk going to the polls before the next budget the polls?

The opposition are not interested in going to the polls or forming another coalition. So a loss of power without an election is gone.

The Liberals have $ 1.8 million due in leadership debts Dec 2009.

Publicatins bans on two Adscam trials this Fall are going to be lifted.

Elections Canada is being taken to the court for not collecting money they improperly paid out to the political parties. The CPC owe $ 600k, the other parties stand to owe millions.

In January 2010 the senate will be even.

Vote Splitting Ontario

The CPC want the NDP to siphon more votes and if they adopt the Doer/Dexter model they will.

EAP was supported by the Liberals and the voters don't blame the Global recession on the CPC.

The voters are not going to accept the opposition talking points about the spending that was demanded in November 2009 can be completed in 6 months.

Infrastructure, environmental assessments take nearly one year for 3 levels of government to get the job done.

Regarding where the CPC lost their votes check what ridings you might be shocked. It was not Ontario or ridings they are actively targetting.

The CPC are polling close to their election results in 2008.

The CPC will raised $ 23 million in 2008 without a convention of big dinners.

The LPC have raised $ 100k in the first six months than all of 2008.
The CPC have 35k making small regular donors.


The Liberal donors are Q1 15k Q2 19k in 2009 compare those numbers to Dion. The big donors may have already been tapped out making Q3 Q4 very difficult.

The dinner in Woodbridge should help raise another million.

The max is $ 1,100: they need those new members donate.

Check elections Canada Website or punditsguide to verify those numbers.

Goodluck.

September 25, 2009 9:57 PM  
Blogger Lizt. said...

Is somebody insane?...not even worth looking at.

September 25, 2009 10:19 PM  
Blogger CanadianSense said...

Otto,

The Bloc, NDP, CPC will need a few weeks to craft their 10% to remind how the Liberals voted against this policy.

The vast majority (92%) of Canadians are aware of the credit, and many are planning to take advantage of this newly promised incentive. Results released by Angus Reid Strategies’ Retail Reid report highlight that of the one-in-two (54%) Canadian households who have already started or plan to start home renovations or improvements before the end of year, two-thirds (64%) cite the tax credit as an influence in their decision-making.

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/polls-analysis/opinion-polls/home-renovation-tax-credit-clearly-encouraging-canadians-renovate

September 25, 2009 10:47 PM  
Blogger marie said...

common Sense, The Liberals have $ 1.8 million due in leadership debts Dec 2009.
Wrong!the liberals have payed off those debts and gained a lot more member and raised a lot of money. Don't play that Liberals are broke again. And your still busy promoting the ad scam issue which the Cons were involved with as well and Harper has is own Harper scam that has cost us Millions more in using tax dollars to promote themselves. Common Sense, there are a lot of smarter Canadians who vote then you think there are and they know politics and people a lot more than you think . Give it a rest already because you know dick all. You speak as though you are working for this incompetent government and your merely in line at the soup kitchens is more than likely.

And what do you have to say about those 10% ers that are always in my mail box. From Mp's that are not living in my riding and most not even in my province. More Harperscams. That's my tax dollars and I object about your Reform/alliance/Cons spending it to promote themselves.
As for the Home Renovation rebate, that was voted on and passed after the last election when the budget was read. How many times does stuff have to pass to make it legal? As many times as Harper uses bills to to con Canadians would be my guess.

How anyone can vote for this man is beyond me. A Con artist who even cons his own people.

September 26, 2009 6:25 PM  
Blogger CanadianSense said...

Marie you are wrong.

Several are paid up and several are not.

Please link the your proof those debts are paid.

143,500 - Michael IGNATIEFF - June 30, 2009
$627,860 - Stéphane DION - December 31, 2009
$322,361 - Gerard KENNEDY - December 31, 2009
$269,378 - Maurizio BEVILACQUA - December 31, 2009
$184,460 - Martha HALL FINDLEY - December 31, 2009
$160,290 - Joe VOLPE - December 31, 2009
$150,095 - Scott BRISON - December 31, 2009
$104,000 - Hedy FRY - December 31, 2009
$395,890 - Ken DRYDEN - June 30, 2010
$0 - Carolyn BENNETT
$0 - Bob RAE

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/01/lookahead-to-2009-year-in-political.php

September 26, 2009 6:44 PM  
Blogger CanadianSense said...

Marie another link

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/october/27/liberal_contenders/&c=2

Another link to those debts. I also have the links to elections Canada regarding contributions.

So if they were in debt 1-4 million and have spent 2 million on tv spots how much is left?

Don't forget the next court case regarding GST overpayments.

September 26, 2009 6:48 PM  

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