Thursday, September 03, 2009

Wait until the Spring

I am not one of those who believe the Liberals would necessarily benefit from a Fall election.

The key reason is there is no groundswell out there to "kick the bums out". Although we are seeing the beginnings of such a groundswell it has not hit the critical mass necessary to guarantee a loss by the Harper government. In such a situation Mr. Harper could eke out another win, particularly against a chief opponent who will be fighting his first national campaign.

The Liberals can afford to wait and allow that groundswell to flourish, and it will flourish. The Harper government has gone past that line where they will be able to do something to rehabilitate their party and their government. The longer they stay in power the more inevitable their defeat becomes and the greater the potential of that defeat being a crushing one.

None of this means that Mr. Ignatieff should change his mind. I imagine that Mr. Ignatieff made his statements because the Liberal Party is ready for an election, regardless of when it takes place. They have no reason to fear one as I would say it is a little better than even money that the Liberals would win an election this Fall. By all means maintain the hard line, make the other parties react to that hard line and let the chips fall where they may. However, at the same time Liberals should hope that Mr. Harper will become desperate enough to do something that would save his government in the short term but set him up for a much bigger defeat in the medium term.

The pieces for a Liberal victory are falling into place but the puzzle is not yet complete. The Liberals should hope the Conservative government survives the Fall, allowing that groundswell to hit critical mass over the Winter and then hope for an election in the Spring. By that time the conditions will be set for a virtually guaranteed Liberal victory and maybe even a big Liberal victory.

2 Comments:

Blogger Joseph said...

I agree with your sentiment, but not your title.

You can't "wait" for the spring and yet be ready for an election now. That rubicon has been crossed (as Cat would say ;).

You might hope that the conditions work so that an election actually occurs next spring - which is basically what you've said.

I just don't think the word "wait" in your title applies, as it conveys a different meaning entirely.

(In other words, it sounds a lot like "retreat," which is not what I think you intended)

September 03, 2009 9:07 PM  
Blogger Amateur Liberal Strategist said...

I'd prefer an election this fall. If the election is delayed until spring and there's a huge groundswell it could quickly go away. Anything can happen during a campaign and I'd say it's better to have room to grow then to have to hold on to a lead.

UALS

September 03, 2009 9:38 PM  

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