Saturday, June 27, 2009

End of session polls

We have had a few come out since the end of the Parliamentary session, with the latest being the Nanos offering this morning. The Liberal blogsphere has been abuzz about the estimates and many have speculated on the reasons why the Liberals seem to have fallen off a bit.

My advice to them is not to worry. The estimates are what they are. Trying to explain movements of less than 2-3% is what the MSM does and always very badly. Leave it to them.

What I would point out is the Liberals have lead and are now tied (still leading according to Nanos) the campaigning, errr I mean, the governing party for over 6 months. That is very unusual. Even during the worst revelations of the Gomery Inquiry the Conservatives could only gain small leads that lasted less than two weeks.

As well, I believe the most telling result of the last few polls was the one that stated that Stephen Harper has become a weakness for his party instead of a strength. That is very bad news for them. By design, Stephen Harper has made himself and the Conservative Party synonymous and he has been very successful doing so. It will be very difficult to now separate them going forward so even if the Conservatives try to take the spotlight off of Stephen Harper it will have minimal effect and whatever effect it does have will be neutalized once a campaign begins and Stephen Harper again becomes front and centre.

Canada's political history is full of examples of leaders who were considered strong and popular, who had a big reversal in that opinion and dragged their party down. It happened to Trudeau, Mulroney, Martin, Harris, just to name a few. We could be seeing the beginnings of the same thing for Stephen Harper.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Really good post, ottlib. I particularly like the use of the phrase, "Campaigning" Party. It fits like a glove. I've often said that if the conservatives actually spent a tiny fraction of the energies they spend on running the eternal campaign, they might actually accomplish something beneficial to the country.

You could coin that phrase.

June 27, 2009 11:44 AM  
Blogger RuralSandi said...

Harper always does better when parliament is out. He's got money to throw around (I wonder if the SLOW release of monies was on purpose so he could do this through the summer).

I would call the "Perpetual Campaigning Party)

June 27, 2009 12:27 PM  

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