Believe it or not but I do not really like partisan politics. Our politicians' obsessive focus on each other instead of on the issues that are really important to the lives and livelihoods of Canadians is infuriating.
However, I am addicted to partisan politics. I have known that for sometime but I had a WTF moment last Tuesday that really got me thinking. I won't bore you with the details but I will say I have spent the last week thinking and reflecting on it and I have decided to walk away from partisan politics.
The upshot for this blog is that I will be doing a lot less blogging than I did in the past, which was not much to begin with really. As well, going back to the beginning of this blog I stated in my first post that I wanted to engage in intelligent debate about issues. It certainly did not take long for that idea to be swamped by partisanship. So, I am actually going to do what I intended to do with this blog. I will talk about issues instead of the personalities and the organizations that so pollute our political culture.
The last week has also allowed me to put the current election into a non-partisan perspective and I have concluded that it will be what it will be. I will do my bit to effect the outcome on Monday but after that it is out of my hands. Otherwise, the final result will have very little impact on me or society at large with only political partisans from all parties being the most effected.
So long, I wish you all good fortune.
Go Habs! Go Canucks!
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Stasis
I usually do not comment on polls. They are all polling the same population but they always seem to come up with radically different estimates so I generally do not give them much thought or credibility.
For example, if you are following Nanos the Conservatives seem to have been on the verge of a majority government for weeks. However, if you look at EKOS and Harris Decima the Conservatives are firmly planted in minority territory with the Liberals not as far behind as the Conservatives would like.
In short, the polls are giving us very conflicting information on where the parties stand in the eyes of Canadians, which to my mind make them largely useless.
However, something all of the polls seem to be indicating is there has not been much change in the opinions of Canadians for about a week. The last time we saw any real movement was a week ago today, after the leaked AG draft report caused a tightening of the race. Since then we have had the debates but the estimates have really not changed.
Yes, yes, yes, some in the media have been touting an NDP surge but if you look at said surge most polls are showing the differences between the national horse race estimates today being within the MOE compared to where they were this time last week. In other words, the difference is statistically insignificant, statistical noise. This is true for all of the parties.
What about the regionals you might ask. The same is true there as well. The MOEs are much greater for these regional breakdowns so if you look at the estimates for each of them you will note any changes in the estimates for the regional breakdowns today are within the MOE compared to this time last week. Certainly there appears to have been large fluctuations but that always happens with polls with large MOEs. There is no way you can discern statistical noise from actual changes in public opinion.
It is as if the electorate is holding its breath. So the question is why.
Has the electorate made up its mind and we are just playing out the string?
Or is conventional wisdom wrong, and Canadians are still not paying as much attention to the election as expected at this point in the campaign?
Who knows. However, I do know that a significant portion of the electorate makes up their mind during the final weekend of any election campaign, with a significant portion of them waiting until they pick up the pencil behind the voting screen. So, I am leaning towards the second choice.
This election is not over yet.
For example, if you are following Nanos the Conservatives seem to have been on the verge of a majority government for weeks. However, if you look at EKOS and Harris Decima the Conservatives are firmly planted in minority territory with the Liberals not as far behind as the Conservatives would like.
In short, the polls are giving us very conflicting information on where the parties stand in the eyes of Canadians, which to my mind make them largely useless.
However, something all of the polls seem to be indicating is there has not been much change in the opinions of Canadians for about a week. The last time we saw any real movement was a week ago today, after the leaked AG draft report caused a tightening of the race. Since then we have had the debates but the estimates have really not changed.
Yes, yes, yes, some in the media have been touting an NDP surge but if you look at said surge most polls are showing the differences between the national horse race estimates today being within the MOE compared to where they were this time last week. In other words, the difference is statistically insignificant, statistical noise. This is true for all of the parties.
What about the regionals you might ask. The same is true there as well. The MOEs are much greater for these regional breakdowns so if you look at the estimates for each of them you will note any changes in the estimates for the regional breakdowns today are within the MOE compared to this time last week. Certainly there appears to have been large fluctuations but that always happens with polls with large MOEs. There is no way you can discern statistical noise from actual changes in public opinion.
It is as if the electorate is holding its breath. So the question is why.
Has the electorate made up its mind and we are just playing out the string?
Or is conventional wisdom wrong, and Canadians are still not paying as much attention to the election as expected at this point in the campaign?
Who knows. However, I do know that a significant portion of the electorate makes up their mind during the final weekend of any election campaign, with a significant portion of them waiting until they pick up the pencil behind the voting screen. So, I am leaning towards the second choice.
This election is not over yet.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
What are the trolls trying to accomplish?
As can be expected with the election the blogsphere has been humming. More people have been posting their ideas in their blogs and more people have been commenting on them.
One thing I have noticed with these comments is the number of Conservative trolls who have invaded Liblogs. Sometimes their comments make sense and are even insightful but most of the time it is just drivel I can only conclude is designed to agitate and often their comments are out and out lies.
What are these people trying to accomplish? Do they believe that their comments will be seen by anybody else besides partisans from other political parties? Do they seriously believe that they can sway those partisans to change their support for their parties?
I visit the blogs of supporters from other parties to see what they are saying but I rarely feel the need to comment on them because I know that none of my comments will sway that person's opinion. I really do have better things to do with my time.
So why do Conservative supporters insist on commenting on Liberal blogs? Are you really getting paid for it? If so, what a colossal waste of money that is. Do you really have that much time on your hands? If so, get a job, unless commenting on Liberal blogs is your job, in which case carry on I guess.
But if you are not getting paid to do it might I suggest that you could be something much more useful with your time.
One thing I have noticed with these comments is the number of Conservative trolls who have invaded Liblogs. Sometimes their comments make sense and are even insightful but most of the time it is just drivel I can only conclude is designed to agitate and often their comments are out and out lies.
What are these people trying to accomplish? Do they believe that their comments will be seen by anybody else besides partisans from other political parties? Do they seriously believe that they can sway those partisans to change their support for their parties?
I visit the blogs of supporters from other parties to see what they are saying but I rarely feel the need to comment on them because I know that none of my comments will sway that person's opinion. I really do have better things to do with my time.
So why do Conservative supporters insist on commenting on Liberal blogs? Are you really getting paid for it? If so, what a colossal waste of money that is. Do you really have that much time on your hands? If so, get a job, unless commenting on Liberal blogs is your job, in which case carry on I guess.
But if you are not getting paid to do it might I suggest that you could be something much more useful with your time.
Rise Up Video
I have been watching the reaction to the Rise Up video.
As expected that reaction depends on your political bent. Conservatives pan it and Liberals love it. As for the media pundits I really could not say. I concluded they were idiots a long time ago and stopped reading or listening to them.
What everybody seems to forget is that you cannot always predict what Canadians will care about. As well, you cannot always predict how they will react at any given point to any given situation or statement.
Will this video and the sentiment it hightlights resonate with Canadians? Who knows. The Conservatives hope not, the Liberals hope so and the media pundits will try to tell Canadians what they should think but it will be ordinary Canadians who will have the final say.
As expected that reaction depends on your political bent. Conservatives pan it and Liberals love it. As for the media pundits I really could not say. I concluded they were idiots a long time ago and stopped reading or listening to them.
What everybody seems to forget is that you cannot always predict what Canadians will care about. As well, you cannot always predict how they will react at any given point to any given situation or statement.
Will this video and the sentiment it hightlights resonate with Canadians? Who knows. The Conservatives hope not, the Liberals hope so and the media pundits will try to tell Canadians what they should think but it will be ordinary Canadians who will have the final say.
Use Humour in advertizing
Today is was revealed that the $30 billion dollar cost for the new F-35 jets may not include the engines for them. I hope that the folks doing the ads for the Liberals are on top of this and that they use humour because really this whole situation is side splittingly funny.
Here is an idea.
Take the photo Stephen Harper is his silly leather Calgary Stampede getup. Animate it like South Park. You know those characters where the top of the heads bounce up and down while speaking.
Give this animated Stephen Harper the classic used car salesman voice and then have it "sell" the F-35 to Canadians using all of the information that has come out showing that these are the wrong planes for Canada.
At the end of the sales job have the animated Stephen Harper make the statement: "And you can have all of this for the low, low price of $30 billion, (pause) engines not included."
This whole F-35 situation is absurd and one of the best ways to show absurdity is to use humour to mock it. The Liberals should use that to their advantage.
Oh yes, the Liberals need to make certain that they run it as much as possible in the last few days of the election as well as on Youtube.
Here is an idea.
Take the photo Stephen Harper is his silly leather Calgary Stampede getup. Animate it like South Park. You know those characters where the top of the heads bounce up and down while speaking.
Give this animated Stephen Harper the classic used car salesman voice and then have it "sell" the F-35 to Canadians using all of the information that has come out showing that these are the wrong planes for Canada.
At the end of the sales job have the animated Stephen Harper make the statement: "And you can have all of this for the low, low price of $30 billion, (pause) engines not included."
This whole F-35 situation is absurd and one of the best ways to show absurdity is to use humour to mock it. The Liberals should use that to their advantage.
Oh yes, the Liberals need to make certain that they run it as much as possible in the last few days of the election as well as on Youtube.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Week Three in the books: Now the real election begins
The debate week of the election is now over and the real election campaign is underway. How do we assess the week gone by?
For the Liberals they had both positives and negatives. The debates did not help them as much as they would have liked but at the same time they did not hurt them either. They can take some solace from the fact that 10 million Canadians tuned into watch the debates and that was probably their first look at Mr. Ignatieff without the media or Conservative filter. Although he did not blow the doors off I would imagine that he did make a reasonably positive impression, one that he can build on for the next two weeks.
The Liberals are showing signs that they are focusing their message with the new healthcare ads. That is a good start. Now I would like to see four other ads before the end of the election. One to tie all of the undemocratic actions of the Conservatives together, including the attempted disenfranchizement of those students in Guelph. The other three each focusing on jets, jails and corporate tax cuts and contrasting them with the Liberal family plan. One ad for each of those Conservative priorities. Then blanket the airwaves with them from now until E-day.
Mr. Ignatieff is still packing them in at rallies and the enthusiasm of Liberals has not waned since the beginning of the election. That bodes well for the GOTV efforts on May 2 and it could mean those 800,000 or so Liberals who stayed home in 2008 will come out this time. If they do that will have a profound effect on alot of ridings in this country.
Finally, if you believe the public polls the Liberals have cut the initial Conservative advantage, at the beginning of this campaign, in half. Not bad when you consider that voters were not really paying attention during the first weeks. Now that they probably are the Liberals have a great opportunity to keep moving up if they can continue to run a good campaign.
The Conservatives began their week with a controversy and ended it with two more. In between the debates did not help them or hurt them. It seems they just cannot run their campaign without stepping in it. Their position has been on a steady and slow decline even though voters were not paying attention. If they continue to suffer from more controversies in the next two weeks their fortunes would probably continue to wane, possibly beyond the point of no return.
Of the two controversies today watch the effects of the Guergis controversery. Her experience could reinforce the notion amongst professional women in this country as to why they do not like nor trust Stephen Harper. They contributed to costing him majorities on two other occasions and they could do the same thing this time, or worse.
The NDP had a good week. The polls tell me so, if you can believe the public polls. However, one good week out of three is not nearly good enough and it is doubtful that they can sustain it over the next two weeks. It would not surprise me one bit to see them fade in the coming days and weeks.
The Bloc also had a good week. However, they are still not doing nearly as well as they did in 2008. It is an open question as to whether they will be able to sustain their post-debate bounce for the next two weeks.
For the Green Party the debates gave them another opportunity to get noticed by complaining that they were not in the debates. However, while that might get them some sympathy I doubt that it will get them any votes.
At the third week mark of the campaign it is still a toss-up as to who will win it. Certainly, the Conservatives have the advantage in the public polls but their campaign is still being beset by scandal and controversy while the campaign of their chief opponent is being run smoothly. The campaign is still the Conservatives' to lose but they are alot closer to doing so now at the beginning of the real election campaign than they were three weeks ago.
For the Liberals they had both positives and negatives. The debates did not help them as much as they would have liked but at the same time they did not hurt them either. They can take some solace from the fact that 10 million Canadians tuned into watch the debates and that was probably their first look at Mr. Ignatieff without the media or Conservative filter. Although he did not blow the doors off I would imagine that he did make a reasonably positive impression, one that he can build on for the next two weeks.
The Liberals are showing signs that they are focusing their message with the new healthcare ads. That is a good start. Now I would like to see four other ads before the end of the election. One to tie all of the undemocratic actions of the Conservatives together, including the attempted disenfranchizement of those students in Guelph. The other three each focusing on jets, jails and corporate tax cuts and contrasting them with the Liberal family plan. One ad for each of those Conservative priorities. Then blanket the airwaves with them from now until E-day.
Mr. Ignatieff is still packing them in at rallies and the enthusiasm of Liberals has not waned since the beginning of the election. That bodes well for the GOTV efforts on May 2 and it could mean those 800,000 or so Liberals who stayed home in 2008 will come out this time. If they do that will have a profound effect on alot of ridings in this country.
Finally, if you believe the public polls the Liberals have cut the initial Conservative advantage, at the beginning of this campaign, in half. Not bad when you consider that voters were not really paying attention during the first weeks. Now that they probably are the Liberals have a great opportunity to keep moving up if they can continue to run a good campaign.
The Conservatives began their week with a controversy and ended it with two more. In between the debates did not help them or hurt them. It seems they just cannot run their campaign without stepping in it. Their position has been on a steady and slow decline even though voters were not paying attention. If they continue to suffer from more controversies in the next two weeks their fortunes would probably continue to wane, possibly beyond the point of no return.
Of the two controversies today watch the effects of the Guergis controversery. Her experience could reinforce the notion amongst professional women in this country as to why they do not like nor trust Stephen Harper. They contributed to costing him majorities on two other occasions and they could do the same thing this time, or worse.
The NDP had a good week. The polls tell me so, if you can believe the public polls. However, one good week out of three is not nearly good enough and it is doubtful that they can sustain it over the next two weeks. It would not surprise me one bit to see them fade in the coming days and weeks.
The Bloc also had a good week. However, they are still not doing nearly as well as they did in 2008. It is an open question as to whether they will be able to sustain their post-debate bounce for the next two weeks.
For the Green Party the debates gave them another opportunity to get noticed by complaining that they were not in the debates. However, while that might get them some sympathy I doubt that it will get them any votes.
At the third week mark of the campaign it is still a toss-up as to who will win it. Certainly, the Conservatives have the advantage in the public polls but their campaign is still being beset by scandal and controversy while the campaign of their chief opponent is being run smoothly. The campaign is still the Conservatives' to lose but they are alot closer to doing so now at the beginning of the real election campaign than they were three weeks ago.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
No knockout
As much as we would all like to see Mr. Ignatieff reducing Mr. Harper to a pile of goo during these debates it is not going to happen. Neither will it happen in reverse. There will be no knockout blow during either debate. There are two reasons. One, each of the participants will be too well briefed and prepared. Two, the debate format is not conducive to knockout blows.
So, with this in mind the mindset of Mr. Ignatieff going is should be to focus on what he can control, namely delivering his message with passion and resolve. Being a former TV journalist he should have no problems in front of the cameras. If he just falls back on that experience he should be fine.
So, with this in mind the mindset of Mr. Ignatieff going is should be to focus on what he can control, namely delivering his message with passion and resolve. Being a former TV journalist he should have no problems in front of the cameras. If he just falls back on that experience he should be fine.
Friday, April 08, 2011
Week Two in the Books: Liberals with momentum and Conservatives in trouble
So week number two is pretty well over and if we are to assess the results from it we can say that the Liberals seem to have a little bit of momentum heading into debate week and the Conservatives have some real troubles in the present and probable future.
The sense of momentum for the Liberals can be felt in the polls with most of them seeming to indicate that the Liberals and Mr. Ignatieff have made up alot of ground on the Conservatives in week two. As well, they seem to be taking support from the NDP, which is a necessary step in gaining power. Reducing vote splitting and convincing soft Conservative supporters to switch sides has always been the key to victory for the Liberals.
However, the real momentum can be seen in the campaign itself. Mr. Ignatieff is playing to packed houses. As I stated in a previous post in most cases these people are Liberal partisans. So, if Mr. Ignatieff can attract 1200 Liberal partisans in Hamilton that probably means that the candidates in Hamilton and surrounding areas are attracting alot of volunteers. That bodes well for the GOTV effort on election day. As well, all reports seem to indicate that fundraising is going very well which would seem to indicate that Liberals are engaged in this election. Remember folks that the Conservatives lost votes during the 2008 election but still won because almost 1 million Liberals decided to sit out that election. If they decide to come back things will be very good for the Liberals.
The Conservatives are having real difficulties. Week two of their campaign was just a brutal, if not more so, than week one. They stomped on their own message with three days of reports of their tactics for keeping undesirable young people out of their rallies, the illegal use of the RCMP in doing so and the ongoing Carson saga. It is starting to rattle Stephen Harper. That is the only reason why he would release the Conservative platform in the setting he did today. The bubble boy campaign claims are beginning to hit home and he desperately wants to appear to be reversing it without actually doing so of course. Then there is the content of the platform. Only a party that is feeling the heat would stomp on their own budget 17 days after tabling it in the House.
The Carson Affair is the real danger for the Conservatives. I know that Conservative supporters and their apologists in the media have been trying to downplay the whole thing and they have had some success so far. However, this affair just does not seem to end and with every new revelation more Canadians are wondering just what is going on there.
Further the elements of the affair can be very easily stitched together into a nasty narrative for the Conservatives.
"Stephen Harper appointed, as one of his senior advisors, a man who was convicted of a felony five times and who seems to have had links with a money launderer, a man who is now under RCMP investigation for allegations that he illegally lobbied the government for government contracts that could have kicked back 10s of millions of dollars to him and his fiancee, who happens to be a former high prices prostitute."
Do you think such a narrative could be nicely explained in a 30 second spot? One that is run, alot, from the end of the debates to the end of the election. As the Adscam ads the Conservatives used during the 2006 election demonstrate, they do not need to be totally true. They just need to tell a plausible story.
Mr. Carson could very well bring down the Conservative Party on May 2.
The Liberals are exactly where they want to be going into debate week. They have the momentum and they are facing a chief opponent that is showing signs that they may not be able to turn things around before election day.
The sense of momentum for the Liberals can be felt in the polls with most of them seeming to indicate that the Liberals and Mr. Ignatieff have made up alot of ground on the Conservatives in week two. As well, they seem to be taking support from the NDP, which is a necessary step in gaining power. Reducing vote splitting and convincing soft Conservative supporters to switch sides has always been the key to victory for the Liberals.
However, the real momentum can be seen in the campaign itself. Mr. Ignatieff is playing to packed houses. As I stated in a previous post in most cases these people are Liberal partisans. So, if Mr. Ignatieff can attract 1200 Liberal partisans in Hamilton that probably means that the candidates in Hamilton and surrounding areas are attracting alot of volunteers. That bodes well for the GOTV effort on election day. As well, all reports seem to indicate that fundraising is going very well which would seem to indicate that Liberals are engaged in this election. Remember folks that the Conservatives lost votes during the 2008 election but still won because almost 1 million Liberals decided to sit out that election. If they decide to come back things will be very good for the Liberals.
The Conservatives are having real difficulties. Week two of their campaign was just a brutal, if not more so, than week one. They stomped on their own message with three days of reports of their tactics for keeping undesirable young people out of their rallies, the illegal use of the RCMP in doing so and the ongoing Carson saga. It is starting to rattle Stephen Harper. That is the only reason why he would release the Conservative platform in the setting he did today. The bubble boy campaign claims are beginning to hit home and he desperately wants to appear to be reversing it without actually doing so of course. Then there is the content of the platform. Only a party that is feeling the heat would stomp on their own budget 17 days after tabling it in the House.
The Carson Affair is the real danger for the Conservatives. I know that Conservative supporters and their apologists in the media have been trying to downplay the whole thing and they have had some success so far. However, this affair just does not seem to end and with every new revelation more Canadians are wondering just what is going on there.
Further the elements of the affair can be very easily stitched together into a nasty narrative for the Conservatives.
"Stephen Harper appointed, as one of his senior advisors, a man who was convicted of a felony five times and who seems to have had links with a money launderer, a man who is now under RCMP investigation for allegations that he illegally lobbied the government for government contracts that could have kicked back 10s of millions of dollars to him and his fiancee, who happens to be a former high prices prostitute."
Do you think such a narrative could be nicely explained in a 30 second spot? One that is run, alot, from the end of the debates to the end of the election. As the Adscam ads the Conservatives used during the 2006 election demonstrate, they do not need to be totally true. They just need to tell a plausible story.
Mr. Carson could very well bring down the Conservative Party on May 2.
The Liberals are exactly where they want to be going into debate week. They have the momentum and they are facing a chief opponent that is showing signs that they may not be able to turn things around before election day.
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
The genius of Stephen Harper
I now believe I know Stephen Harper's plan for winning this election. It is to run a campaign filled with so many gaffes, mistakes and errors that the war rooms of the other parties will not be able to keep up.
Afterall, just in the last two days the Conservative campaign has had revelations that it is using Facebook to screen out undesirables from their rallies. This is still ungoing as more people who have been victimized by this are coming forward. Then there is the ungoing Bruce Carson saga and the questions of if Stephen Harper knew he was a five time convicted felon when Mr. Harper tagged him as a senior advisor. These two events are on top of the other stuff we saw during week one.
This is very clever of the Conservatives. In fact it is genius. Keep your opponents off balance by running a lousy campaign. It is so crazy it might just work. As well, it gives the Conservatives the added benefit of hiding the fact that they do not have anything they can campaign on, at least not for this campaign. The 2015 campaign, they have it covered, but this campaign the cupboard is bare.
Genius I tell you.
Note: In case anybody does not realize it my tongue is firmly planted in my cheek for this post. So, on a more serious note has anybody noticed that the media are no longer talking about "coalitions" and they are no longer using the phrase "Conservative majority government"? The two key messages of the Conservatives have beem stomped on by their own ineptitude. Can the Conservative advantage in the polls be maintained if this continues?
Afterall, just in the last two days the Conservative campaign has had revelations that it is using Facebook to screen out undesirables from their rallies. This is still ungoing as more people who have been victimized by this are coming forward. Then there is the ungoing Bruce Carson saga and the questions of if Stephen Harper knew he was a five time convicted felon when Mr. Harper tagged him as a senior advisor. These two events are on top of the other stuff we saw during week one.
This is very clever of the Conservatives. In fact it is genius. Keep your opponents off balance by running a lousy campaign. It is so crazy it might just work. As well, it gives the Conservatives the added benefit of hiding the fact that they do not have anything they can campaign on, at least not for this campaign. The 2015 campaign, they have it covered, but this campaign the cupboard is bare.
Genius I tell you.
Note: In case anybody does not realize it my tongue is firmly planted in my cheek for this post. So, on a more serious note has anybody noticed that the media are no longer talking about "coalitions" and they are no longer using the phrase "Conservative majority government"? The two key messages of the Conservatives have beem stomped on by their own ineptitude. Can the Conservative advantage in the polls be maintained if this continues?
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Plunging
The title of this post is not referring to a poll. It is referring to the moral of the members of the Privy Council Office (PCO) after they found out that Stephen Harper threw their whole department under a bus in yet another attempt to distance himself from the smell wafting up from the Carson Affair. You could only imagine their chagrin at being accused of not doing their job and being unable to respond to defend themselves.
I have disagreed with many conservative politicians over the years but I never had a personal dislike for any of them. The same cannot be said of Stephen Harper. I think the man is despicable. The PCO's function is to serve the Prime Minister. They are his very own department. These people bust their butt each day to serve him, which in many cases means watching his political back. You would think that he would appreciate that enough to do the same, after all that is what leaders do.
Canada is blessed with one of the most professional public services on the planet so Mr. Harper can rest assured that the PCO will not respond to his outrageous claims of their incompetence. Indeed, Mr. Harper probably took that fact into account when he came up with his latest defence.
However, there would be some justice if some damaging leaks began appearing in the media about some of the more controversial decisions this government has made over the last five years, which I will bet a large amount of money will not happen.
I have disagreed with many conservative politicians over the years but I never had a personal dislike for any of them. The same cannot be said of Stephen Harper. I think the man is despicable. The PCO's function is to serve the Prime Minister. They are his very own department. These people bust their butt each day to serve him, which in many cases means watching his political back. You would think that he would appreciate that enough to do the same, after all that is what leaders do.
Canada is blessed with one of the most professional public services on the planet so Mr. Harper can rest assured that the PCO will not respond to his outrageous claims of their incompetence. Indeed, Mr. Harper probably took that fact into account when he came up with his latest defence.
However, there would be some justice if some damaging leaks began appearing in the media about some of the more controversial decisions this government has made over the last five years, which I will bet a large amount of money will not happen.
Sunday, April 03, 2011
Politicians do not call elections unless they think they can win
An obvious statement I know but one that needs to made because of all of the BS we saw leading up to this election.
Many in the chattering classes were on Mr. Ignatieff because of his desire to have an election. They pointed to the public polls and stating he had no chance so why force one now?
The obvious answer is he believes he can win and he is proving that by his performance this past week. He knows that the Conservatives are vulnerable in a number of fronts and that their expressed desire to not have an election was genuine. In politics it is generally a good idea to force your opponent to do something they do not want to do.
As the last week has demonstrated all of the reports in the media on how Mr. Harper wanted this election and how he maneuvered the opposition into bringing him down to force one was unadulterated bunk. Mr. Harper is not performing like someone who wanted to be campaigning. Quite the opposite is true. Many have noted that he does not seem to be campaigning to win. That is not true, of course he is campaigning to win. The problem is he did not want this election and he was not ready for it.
Of course, these men did not come to their decisions at random, they did seek out data and one source of that data in internal polling. Political parties poll to assist in their decision making and as a result they ask many questions the media do not think of or just refuse to ask. The "desire for change" question happens to be one that we used to see all of the time but has now disappeared from the media polls.
Armed with this data, the knowledge of the progress of their election planning processes and some political instinct the two party leaders determined whether they could win an election. Mr. Ignatieff believed he could and Mr. Harper could very well believe the same thing. We saw the result in Week one.
Are they correct in their beliefs. That question will be answered on May 2.
Many in the chattering classes were on Mr. Ignatieff because of his desire to have an election. They pointed to the public polls and stating he had no chance so why force one now?
The obvious answer is he believes he can win and he is proving that by his performance this past week. He knows that the Conservatives are vulnerable in a number of fronts and that their expressed desire to not have an election was genuine. In politics it is generally a good idea to force your opponent to do something they do not want to do.
As the last week has demonstrated all of the reports in the media on how Mr. Harper wanted this election and how he maneuvered the opposition into bringing him down to force one was unadulterated bunk. Mr. Harper is not performing like someone who wanted to be campaigning. Quite the opposite is true. Many have noted that he does not seem to be campaigning to win. That is not true, of course he is campaigning to win. The problem is he did not want this election and he was not ready for it.
Of course, these men did not come to their decisions at random, they did seek out data and one source of that data in internal polling. Political parties poll to assist in their decision making and as a result they ask many questions the media do not think of or just refuse to ask. The "desire for change" question happens to be one that we used to see all of the time but has now disappeared from the media polls.
Armed with this data, the knowledge of the progress of their election planning processes and some political instinct the two party leaders determined whether they could win an election. Mr. Ignatieff believed he could and Mr. Harper could very well believe the same thing. We saw the result in Week one.
Are they correct in their beliefs. That question will be answered on May 2.
Saturday, April 02, 2011
This election will be decided on the ground
I went to my local Liberal candidate's campaign office this morning to give her a big fat monetary political contribution. I no longer have the time in my busy life to actually volunteer so I now just give them money. I will be doing the same for the national campaign.
I arrived at the office just before the candidate was heading out to do some canvassing. She had a good team to accompany her, she also had other teams that were going canvassing without her and the telephone canvassing stations were all occupied. Since I was there, and not being a stranger to campaign offices, I took a quick look around and noticed that she already has over two dozen volunteers for e-day. Just a week in and already that many have decided to take part in the GOTV effort on May 2. Impressive.
This is just one local campaign but we may be seeing signs of it being more widespread by the size of the crowds coming out to see Mr. Ignatieff at his campaign stops. Make no mistake, these people are not ordinary Canadians. They are Liberal partisans, probably working for a local campaign in the area. So, if Mr. Ignatieff can draw almost a 1000 people in say, Winnipeg, that probably means that the local campaigns in that city and the surrounding area are seeing a good turnout of volunteers.
The national campaign is important but as 2008 demonstrates without a good ground game to pull the vote you will not see success.
The first week of the national campaign was encouraging. Seeing the crowds that Mr. Ignatieff has been speaking to and the buzz I saw today at my local candidate's office is also encouraging that the ground game for the Liberals will be much better than the last two elections.
I arrived at the office just before the candidate was heading out to do some canvassing. She had a good team to accompany her, she also had other teams that were going canvassing without her and the telephone canvassing stations were all occupied. Since I was there, and not being a stranger to campaign offices, I took a quick look around and noticed that she already has over two dozen volunteers for e-day. Just a week in and already that many have decided to take part in the GOTV effort on May 2. Impressive.
This is just one local campaign but we may be seeing signs of it being more widespread by the size of the crowds coming out to see Mr. Ignatieff at his campaign stops. Make no mistake, these people are not ordinary Canadians. They are Liberal partisans, probably working for a local campaign in the area. So, if Mr. Ignatieff can draw almost a 1000 people in say, Winnipeg, that probably means that the local campaigns in that city and the surrounding area are seeing a good turnout of volunteers.
The national campaign is important but as 2008 demonstrates without a good ground game to pull the vote you will not see success.
The first week of the national campaign was encouraging. Seeing the crowds that Mr. Ignatieff has been speaking to and the buzz I saw today at my local candidate's office is also encouraging that the ground game for the Liberals will be much better than the last two elections.
Friday, April 01, 2011
Week One in the Books: Something for Everybody
The election is one week old and it has been an interesting week. If you are sitting at home assessing how things went it can probably be concluded that every one of the campaigns can take away some positives from the week.
The Liberals can take the most positives. Michael Ignatieff is proving, so far, to be a good campaigner. He has been focused and that is rubbing off on the campaign. The ads they have released are good. He is doing a good job of comparing the Liberal and Conservative positions and priorites. The chattering classes are beginning to see that the caricature that the Conservative Party created of him does not match reality. The only real hiccup was the gentleman from Vaughn (sorry I am lousy with names) deciding to back the Conservatives. Other than that it has all been good news and if they can keep it up the Liberals could win, maybe even win big.
The Conservatives have had a terrible first week. Stephen Harper did not want to have this election and it shows. From his first news conference at Rideau Hall to the present he has not looked comfortable campaigning. His head is not in the game as demonstrated by the coalition gambit and the debate challenge. By most accounts it was his idea to pursue the coalition angle and how he believed that his own words about the issue, from 2004 and 1997, would not enter into the conversation is astounding. Then there is the debate challenge. Making the challenge undid everything the Conservatives have been trying to do since Michael Ignatieff became leader of the Liberal Party. It made him an equal. Backing out of the debate just 24 hours after issuing the challenge makes him look weak. This and other gaffes have made Mr. Harper go further into the bubble that he started the campaign in, freezing out the media, much to their chagrin, which could have some negative impacts on the campaign in the medium to long-term. His campaign has been Seinfeldian in nature. He only made two real promises this week. One that will not take effect until Jim Kirk starts his 5 year mission and the one today, which everybody could see coming, and which he announced on a Friday afternoon. Again, people are noticing, including the media, and some serious questions regarding the Conservative campaign are being posed.
All that being said, the Conservatives can take some solace from two polls today. Despite all of their troubles they have not seemed to have suffered for it, yet.
However, Conservatives had better take those estimates with a grain of salt. Conservatives just need to look to Prime Minister Martin's campaign of 2006 to see what happens to party leaders who focus mainly on fear during an election campaign and who leads a campaign beset with problems like the Conservative campaign has been of late. If it continues it will catch up to them.
Some state that the Conservatives could turn things around and that is certainly true. However, the kind of campaign the Conservatives are having can feed on themselves and no matter what the party or leader does they just cannot right the ship.
The NDP is having its typical election campaign. It is trying to be heard and trying to appear relevant. So far, its policy proposals have been underwhelming. It too can take solace from the latest EKOS poll as they were the only party that saw their estimates move outside of the MOE. The other parties were all pretty static.
The Bloc is the Bloc. Gilles Duceppe is a seasoned campaigner and he has the advantage of only having to campaign in Quebec. So far, his party seems to be holding its own. If Quebecers collectively decide, again, to be disengaged from the governance of Canada they should do well. If that begins to change, watch their fortunes change for the worst, quickly.
The decision of the media consortium to not include the Greens is a gift for them. It allowed them to be heard at least for a short time this week. Any other decision and the Greens would not have received any attention at all.
The Liberals can take the most positives. Michael Ignatieff is proving, so far, to be a good campaigner. He has been focused and that is rubbing off on the campaign. The ads they have released are good. He is doing a good job of comparing the Liberal and Conservative positions and priorites. The chattering classes are beginning to see that the caricature that the Conservative Party created of him does not match reality. The only real hiccup was the gentleman from Vaughn (sorry I am lousy with names) deciding to back the Conservatives. Other than that it has all been good news and if they can keep it up the Liberals could win, maybe even win big.
The Conservatives have had a terrible first week. Stephen Harper did not want to have this election and it shows. From his first news conference at Rideau Hall to the present he has not looked comfortable campaigning. His head is not in the game as demonstrated by the coalition gambit and the debate challenge. By most accounts it was his idea to pursue the coalition angle and how he believed that his own words about the issue, from 2004 and 1997, would not enter into the conversation is astounding. Then there is the debate challenge. Making the challenge undid everything the Conservatives have been trying to do since Michael Ignatieff became leader of the Liberal Party. It made him an equal. Backing out of the debate just 24 hours after issuing the challenge makes him look weak. This and other gaffes have made Mr. Harper go further into the bubble that he started the campaign in, freezing out the media, much to their chagrin, which could have some negative impacts on the campaign in the medium to long-term. His campaign has been Seinfeldian in nature. He only made two real promises this week. One that will not take effect until Jim Kirk starts his 5 year mission and the one today, which everybody could see coming, and which he announced on a Friday afternoon. Again, people are noticing, including the media, and some serious questions regarding the Conservative campaign are being posed.
All that being said, the Conservatives can take some solace from two polls today. Despite all of their troubles they have not seemed to have suffered for it, yet.
However, Conservatives had better take those estimates with a grain of salt. Conservatives just need to look to Prime Minister Martin's campaign of 2006 to see what happens to party leaders who focus mainly on fear during an election campaign and who leads a campaign beset with problems like the Conservative campaign has been of late. If it continues it will catch up to them.
Some state that the Conservatives could turn things around and that is certainly true. However, the kind of campaign the Conservatives are having can feed on themselves and no matter what the party or leader does they just cannot right the ship.
The NDP is having its typical election campaign. It is trying to be heard and trying to appear relevant. So far, its policy proposals have been underwhelming. It too can take solace from the latest EKOS poll as they were the only party that saw their estimates move outside of the MOE. The other parties were all pretty static.
The Bloc is the Bloc. Gilles Duceppe is a seasoned campaigner and he has the advantage of only having to campaign in Quebec. So far, his party seems to be holding its own. If Quebecers collectively decide, again, to be disengaged from the governance of Canada they should do well. If that begins to change, watch their fortunes change for the worst, quickly.
The decision of the media consortium to not include the Greens is a gift for them. It allowed them to be heard at least for a short time this week. Any other decision and the Greens would not have received any attention at all.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Four questions per day?
Word out of the Conservative campaign is Stephen Harper is now only going to answer four questions per day. At any other time I would find such a report as lacking credibility. However, Stephen Harper has a history of running away form situations when he finds it getting too hot, from not answering journalists' questions to proroguing Parliament.
In one of my previous posts I asked how the media would play this election. I stated that they would side with the campaign they believed had the greatest chance of winning. As I said, the corporate bosses of the MSM will want to be on the good side of the victor.
I am certain that the journalists on the Conservative Leader's campaign tour are not too enamoured with these new restrictions on them. I am also certain that some of them will see this a blood on the water. However, I believe they will bide their time for another few days. If the Conservative campaign continues to stumble and if polls begin to show the Liberals closing the gap then we may see the media turn against the Conservatives, possibly with gusto.
This really turning into an interesting election.
In one of my previous posts I asked how the media would play this election. I stated that they would side with the campaign they believed had the greatest chance of winning. As I said, the corporate bosses of the MSM will want to be on the good side of the victor.
I am certain that the journalists on the Conservative Leader's campaign tour are not too enamoured with these new restrictions on them. I am also certain that some of them will see this a blood on the water. However, I believe they will bide their time for another few days. If the Conservative campaign continues to stumble and if polls begin to show the Liberals closing the gap then we may see the media turn against the Conservatives, possibly with gusto.
This really turning into an interesting election.
Monday, March 28, 2011
First Impressions
Some initial impressions of the party leaders after three days of the election.
Michael Ignatieff is looking like Jean Chretien in the sense that he seems to be enjoying himself. I am not saying he has the political smarts of Mr. Chretien or anything but one thing I noticed about Mr. Chretien during his three campaigns is he always seemed to be having fun regardless of the daily vagaries of them. The same seems to be true of Mr. Ignatieff. He looks like he is having fun.
Stephen Harper does not look like he is having fun. He has always been a gloomy individual having to work really hard to appear cheerful and friendly. So far he has not been totally successful in that goal and on top of that he is channelling Paul Martin. The Liberals have a "hidden agenda"? Canadians have been there and done that.
Jack Layton has surprised me so far. For the first time in longer than I can remember he has actually made the Conservatives a target of his campaign as opposed to the Liberals. It seemed during the 2008 campaign Mr. Layton talked more about the Liberals than the Conservatives. The past three days have been much different. I am certain as things go forward he will change his focus but it is refreshing to see the NDP focus on the governing party for a change.
Gilles Duceppe also surprised me with his focus on Stephen Harper. Mind you the Bloc has a better chance of taking away the few Conservative seats in Quebec than the Liberal seats. As well, since the Conservatives tend to target the same voters as the Bloc they are a bigger threat to the Bloc than the Liberals right now.
Lizzy May has been invisible which is not surprising considering the environment is not front and centre in this campaign. She will not be included in the debates this time and there will not be a backlash to that fact either.
Michael Ignatieff is looking like Jean Chretien in the sense that he seems to be enjoying himself. I am not saying he has the political smarts of Mr. Chretien or anything but one thing I noticed about Mr. Chretien during his three campaigns is he always seemed to be having fun regardless of the daily vagaries of them. The same seems to be true of Mr. Ignatieff. He looks like he is having fun.
Stephen Harper does not look like he is having fun. He has always been a gloomy individual having to work really hard to appear cheerful and friendly. So far he has not been totally successful in that goal and on top of that he is channelling Paul Martin. The Liberals have a "hidden agenda"? Canadians have been there and done that.
Jack Layton has surprised me so far. For the first time in longer than I can remember he has actually made the Conservatives a target of his campaign as opposed to the Liberals. It seemed during the 2008 campaign Mr. Layton talked more about the Liberals than the Conservatives. The past three days have been much different. I am certain as things go forward he will change his focus but it is refreshing to see the NDP focus on the governing party for a change.
Gilles Duceppe also surprised me with his focus on Stephen Harper. Mind you the Bloc has a better chance of taking away the few Conservative seats in Quebec than the Liberal seats. As well, since the Conservatives tend to target the same voters as the Bloc they are a bigger threat to the Bloc than the Liberals right now.
Lizzy May has been invisible which is not surprising considering the environment is not front and centre in this campaign. She will not be included in the debates this time and there will not be a backlash to that fact either.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
How will this election play in the media?
The Main Stream Media (MSM) in this country is not objective or balanced. That is a journalism school fallacy. This is particularly true of political reporters.
In a few cases it is because of ideology, with the Sun and the National Post being the best examples. In most cases though the media chooses the side they believe will win.
The reason is simple, money. Ownership of our MSM is pretty much concentrated in three large corporations. Those corporations want access to government (taxpayer) funds and the best way to do that is not to piss off the party that is governing or looks like it is about to become the governing party.
We saw this throughout the Liberal years. With the exception of the Sun and the National Post the MSM largely ignored or downplayed some of the more outrageous actions of the Chretien government, focusing on the positive instead. At the same time they nitpicked the Reform Party/Canadian Alliance relentlessly. This reached its peak during the 2000 election when they hounded Stockwell Day for even the most minor gaffe. Certainly he provided them with alot of content but I have always believed that the media was extremely unfair to him and the Canadian Alliance in 2000.
We saw this again in 2004 but when Stephen Harper reduced the Liberals to a minority things began to change in the MSM. They were still hard on the Conservatives but they were not as easy on the Liberals as they had been just a few years before.
Since 2006, we have seen the same thing with only the players changing. The Conservatives have enjoyed a rather easy time of it compared to the Liberals.
So which way will the media jump in this election?
That will all depend on how the election goes. I think the corporate bosses in the media will hedge their bets this time because this election is a crap shoot for both the Liberals and the Conservatives. They will want to be able to point to whoever wins that they treated them fairly during the election so they deserve a place at the public trough.
The Liberals will not enjoy an easy time of it as demonstrated by the hounding about the coalition the day before the writ was dropped but neither are they going to be nitpicked about every little thing happening in the Liberal campaign. (Remember the MSM reaction to the trouble with the campaign plane the last time?) However, the Conservatives will not receive the easy treatment they received during the 2008 election either, as demonstrated by the fact the media actually asked Mr. Harper about his coalition letter of 2004.
The Liberals will not enjoy an easy time of it as demonstrated by the hounding about the coalition the day before the writ was dropped but neither are they going to be nitpicked about every little thing happening in the Liberal campaign. (Remember the MSM reaction to the trouble with the campaign plane the last time?) However, the Conservatives will not receive the easy treatment they received during the 2008 election either, as demonstrated by the fact the media actually asked Mr. Harper about his coalition letter of 2004.
Both Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff are going to have to work hard to impress the MSM this time and it will be interesting to see how each one of them handles that reality.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
"We categorically rule out a coalition or formal arrangement with the Bloc Quebecois."
That is the key point in the Liberal Party media release from this morning.
I would guess that most people opposed to a coalition, who are not Conservative partisans, are opposed to it because of the idea that the a seperatist party might gain some power in our Federal Government.
Remove that worry and the idea of a coalition is no longer so objectionable, except of course to Conservative partisans.
Now all the Liberals have to do is take the above statement and place it beside the letter Mr. Harper wrote to the GG in 2004 and the statements made by Mr. Duceppe today regarding the process that lead to that letter.
Not only would the Liberals neutralize the coalition issue as a threat in this election they would turn it back on Stephen Harper, making him look like the hypocrit that he is on this whole issue.
On a related note, did Stephen Harper and the Conservatives really believe that their machinations of 2004 would not be brought back into the light when they began trying to scare Canadians about the "evil coalition" again?
I would guess that most people opposed to a coalition, who are not Conservative partisans, are opposed to it because of the idea that the a seperatist party might gain some power in our Federal Government.
Remove that worry and the idea of a coalition is no longer so objectionable, except of course to Conservative partisans.
Now all the Liberals have to do is take the above statement and place it beside the letter Mr. Harper wrote to the GG in 2004 and the statements made by Mr. Duceppe today regarding the process that lead to that letter.
Not only would the Liberals neutralize the coalition issue as a threat in this election they would turn it back on Stephen Harper, making him look like the hypocrit that he is on this whole issue.
On a related note, did Stephen Harper and the Conservatives really believe that their machinations of 2004 would not be brought back into the light when they began trying to scare Canadians about the "evil coalition" again?
Stephen Harper is not a political genius
It is with great amusement that I read many media commentators claiming that Stephen Harper is poised to win a majority government because he is a seasoned campaigner while Mr. Ignatieff is a rookie.
How they have such short memories.
In the last two elections the Conservatives were given remarkable electoral gifts. The first was Adscam the second was a political opponent who did not have his whole party behind him and wound up having to deal with the perception that he was proposing a new tax just as a recession was starting.
In both of these cases Stephen Harper had majority governments virtually handed to him but he still managed to blow it.
I could just imagine what Jean Chretien would have done with either of these electoral gifts. Actually I do not need to imagine. Just look at what he did in 2000.
So why would anybody believe it will be different this time?
One of the other advantages that the Conservatives had the last couple of times was they did not have to defend their record over much. Things were not all great on that front in 2008 but they could deflect any flak by pointing to the Green Shift. This time around their government fell because they were found in Contempt of Parliament and they are facing all sorts of little scandals, which on their own would not be that bad, but when taken together could be trouble.
Now Mr. Ignatieff just sucked the air out of the one issue that they could have used to deflect attention away from those scandals.
In short, this election might not be as easy for Mr. Harper and the Conservatives as the last two.
The last two times the Liberals gave the Conservatives great electoral gifts and they failed to take advantage. There are only so many times that the Liberals will do the Conservatives this favour. Will they do it again this time? That remains to be seen but if they do not I wonder how Mr. Harper the political genius will react.
How they have such short memories.
In the last two elections the Conservatives were given remarkable electoral gifts. The first was Adscam the second was a political opponent who did not have his whole party behind him and wound up having to deal with the perception that he was proposing a new tax just as a recession was starting.
In both of these cases Stephen Harper had majority governments virtually handed to him but he still managed to blow it.
I could just imagine what Jean Chretien would have done with either of these electoral gifts. Actually I do not need to imagine. Just look at what he did in 2000.
So why would anybody believe it will be different this time?
One of the other advantages that the Conservatives had the last couple of times was they did not have to defend their record over much. Things were not all great on that front in 2008 but they could deflect any flak by pointing to the Green Shift. This time around their government fell because they were found in Contempt of Parliament and they are facing all sorts of little scandals, which on their own would not be that bad, but when taken together could be trouble.
Now Mr. Ignatieff just sucked the air out of the one issue that they could have used to deflect attention away from those scandals.
In short, this election might not be as easy for Mr. Harper and the Conservatives as the last two.
The last two times the Liberals gave the Conservatives great electoral gifts and they failed to take advantage. There are only so many times that the Liberals will do the Conservatives this favour. Will they do it again this time? That remains to be seen but if they do not I wonder how Mr. Harper the political genius will react.
The secret to a good nights sleep
Do not live and die by the polls.
Watch and listen to the leaders of the parties instead. They will tell you how this thing is going much better than Nanos, EKOS, Ipsos, etc. ever will.
Oh yes, I am going to go out on a limb right now and make a prediction on how this election will end.
It will end when all of the polling booths across the country close during the evening of May 2 and the ballots are counted.
Watch and listen to the leaders of the parties instead. They will tell you how this thing is going much better than Nanos, EKOS, Ipsos, etc. ever will.
Oh yes, I am going to go out on a limb right now and make a prediction on how this election will end.
It will end when all of the polling booths across the country close during the evening of May 2 and the ballots are counted.
Friday, March 25, 2011
More like 2004
Warren Kinsella seems to believe that the upcoming election will be like the 1984 election. I think he has missed it by 20 years.
The beginning of this election is more like the election of 2004.
For that election the sitting government began the it under a cloud of scandal but the scandal, that eventually became Adscam, was still not fully explored, since Justice Gomery had barely begun his work. So there was a suspicion that things were not quite right with the ethical conduct of the government but it had not yet hit that critical mass that caused the sitting government to suffer for it at the polls. Although it did suffer for it at the only poll that really mattered. (More on that in a minute)
The sitting PM had a huge lead over his chief opponent in every leadership score there was. Actually the lead was embarrassingly large. So much so the media had pretty much written off his chief opponent and expected the government to be returned with a majority despite the scandals.
Hell, there was even a poll published by a government friendly newspaper just days before the writ was dropped and the banner front page headline in that paper was "Liberals heading for majority: poll". The story then went on to explain that the governing party was in majority terrritory with almost a 20 point lead.
The economy was booming and the governing party wanted to focus on that while downplaying the brewing scandal.
The governing party spent a great deal of time and money demonizing their chief opponent.
Sound familiar?
Of course, we all know how that election turned out. The governing party was reduced to a minority government and its main opponent set itself up for a victory just 18 months later.
This does not seem to bode well for the Liberals this time because if the same thing happens this time as it did in 2004 they lose.
However, there are some big differences that need to be explored.
First and foremost, the governing party had a majority government heading into the 2004 election. It could afford to lose a bunch of seats and still retain power. The margin for error for the current government is much smaller.
Second, Paul Martin was actually liked by most Canadians. They knew he was partly responsible for the good times that we were enjoying at that time. As well, he was on the right side of many issues that mattered to Canadians such as health care and child care. The current government leader is not liked and the governments priorities seem to be out of step with the electorate.
Third, the government of PMPM and of PMJC before him enjoyed majority support and double digit leads over their cheif opponent, in poll after poll, from every polling company, for years prior to that election. That remained true right up to when the writ was dropped. With the exception of the past 6 weeks the current government has been mired in minority government territory and has bounced back and forth between small leads to statistical ties with their chief opponents for the past 24 months. And if you go back to the time between the 2004 election and the 2006 election you see a similar pattern.
The parallels between this coming election and the one that we enjoyed in 2004 are quite striking. However, there are several key differences that will have an impact on how things unfold going forward so I am certain that his election will eventually turn out like the 2011 election instead of the 2004 or 1984 elections.
The beginning of this election is more like the election of 2004.
For that election the sitting government began the it under a cloud of scandal but the scandal, that eventually became Adscam, was still not fully explored, since Justice Gomery had barely begun his work. So there was a suspicion that things were not quite right with the ethical conduct of the government but it had not yet hit that critical mass that caused the sitting government to suffer for it at the polls. Although it did suffer for it at the only poll that really mattered. (More on that in a minute)
The sitting PM had a huge lead over his chief opponent in every leadership score there was. Actually the lead was embarrassingly large. So much so the media had pretty much written off his chief opponent and expected the government to be returned with a majority despite the scandals.
Hell, there was even a poll published by a government friendly newspaper just days before the writ was dropped and the banner front page headline in that paper was "Liberals heading for majority: poll". The story then went on to explain that the governing party was in majority terrritory with almost a 20 point lead.
The economy was booming and the governing party wanted to focus on that while downplaying the brewing scandal.
The governing party spent a great deal of time and money demonizing their chief opponent.
Sound familiar?
Of course, we all know how that election turned out. The governing party was reduced to a minority government and its main opponent set itself up for a victory just 18 months later.
This does not seem to bode well for the Liberals this time because if the same thing happens this time as it did in 2004 they lose.
However, there are some big differences that need to be explored.
First and foremost, the governing party had a majority government heading into the 2004 election. It could afford to lose a bunch of seats and still retain power. The margin for error for the current government is much smaller.
Second, Paul Martin was actually liked by most Canadians. They knew he was partly responsible for the good times that we were enjoying at that time. As well, he was on the right side of many issues that mattered to Canadians such as health care and child care. The current government leader is not liked and the governments priorities seem to be out of step with the electorate.
Third, the government of PMPM and of PMJC before him enjoyed majority support and double digit leads over their cheif opponent, in poll after poll, from every polling company, for years prior to that election. That remained true right up to when the writ was dropped. With the exception of the past 6 weeks the current government has been mired in minority government territory and has bounced back and forth between small leads to statistical ties with their chief opponents for the past 24 months. And if you go back to the time between the 2004 election and the 2006 election you see a similar pattern.
The parallels between this coming election and the one that we enjoyed in 2004 are quite striking. However, there are several key differences that will have an impact on how things unfold going forward so I am certain that his election will eventually turn out like the 2011 election instead of the 2004 or 1984 elections.
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