Incompetence

That is the only description that can be applied to how the US and Israel conducted the war on Iran.

They were stupid to start it to begin with but once the quick victory did not come to pass they should have ended it immediately. It would have cost them but not as much is it is going to cost them now.

Starting the war is just plain stupid but continuing it after the second week turned a misadventure into a disaster.

A few days into the war I wrote a post about the opening positions each side stated for negotiations. At the time the damage to US, Israeli and Iranian interests and infrastructure was relatively light and although the Strait of Hormuz had been closed it had not been closed long enough to cause real economic harm.

Neither side would have had the advantage so neither side would have been able to dig in. The US and Israel would have had to make some major concessions but so would have the Iranians.

Now, with the Strait being closed for almost six weeks and with it being proven that the US cannot do anything to change that fact the Iranian negotiation position is much stronger than it was in week two and probably stronger that the US/Israeli negotiation position.

That is why the Iranians dug in this weekend during the first round of peace negotiations in Pakistan. The US needs to end the war more that the Iranians do and the Iranians are going to take full advantage of that position.

In week two the Iranians would have probably had to give up their nuclear program and they would have had to curtail their missile production in exchange for sanctions being dropped and control of the Strait of Hormuz being formalized.

In week six that is no longer the case. 

So we will see where this goes. Donald Trump is going to rage, whine, lie and thump his chest but he will eventually be compelled to go back to the negotiating table and pretty much give everything the Iranians want. The only other alternative would be to start shooting again, which will just further strengthen the Iranian strategic position, making peace even more costly for the US in the future.

So he will make peace and probably before his two week deadline is up. Although it may take longer as he extends that deadline.

Israel would be happy with a renewal of the shooting but I believe that their worst nightmare is going to unfold over the next few weeks. Donald Trump is going to make a separate peace with the Iranians, leaving Israel to face a much strengthened Iran alone. He has no loyalty to anybody but himself and you can tell that he is reaching the conclusion that he needs to make peace with the Iranians or face political disaster at home.

So, there is a pause in the peace talks, which will lead to all sorts of posturing by the main combatants and low level violations of the cease fire but in the end a deal will be struck.

Once I see the final deal I may provide my assessment of it in this space at that time.

Maple MAGA is Going to be Going Through Some Stuff

Maple MAGA is already melting down. Through the defection of 5 opposition MPs to the Liberals, in the last few months, they are within one seat of gaining majority government status. There are three by-elections tomorrow and the Liberals are expected to gain at least two of the three with a reasonable probability that they will sweep them. That would give the Liberals a three seat majority. As well, it has been reported that other Conservative caucus members could move to the Liberal caucus in the coming weeks, giving the Liberals a more comfortable majority.

If this comes to pass we can probably expect Maple MAGA to react poorly.

By-elections being what they are no Liberal should take them for granted. In the past by-elections did not mean anything. They were just elections to fill vacant seats in between general elections and did not have any real impact on the political situation and they could not be taken as a harbinger of future elections, although commentators, both professional and amateur, often tied themselves into knots to prove otherwise.

This time it will be different. The results will lead to a majority government or force the Liberals to continue to work as a minority government. That will change the dynamic of them, from voter turnout usually being very low and many turning out to cast a protest vote, to voters actually voting to have a real impact on the federal political scene. 

However, assuming the Liberals win at least two of them, what is going to happen to Pierre Poilievre.

There are reports he may resign but I would bet money that he will not. If the Conservatives want to be rid of him they are going to have to push him out. He will not go voluntarily. 

I have stated the reason in this space before. If the next election is held in 2029, which would be the most probable outcome of the Liberals gaining majority government status, the leader of the CPC at that time will have a very good chance of becoming PM. There is no way that the Liberals will be able to fly as high as they are currently for the next three years. They will come back down to earth. Combine that with the fact 2029 will see the Liberals governing for 14 years, the chances of the Liberals winning the election in 2029 is probably less than 50/50.

Pierre Poilievre has to know this so unless he is forced out he will stick around. Ironically, if the Liberals gain enough seats for a majority the pressure will be reduced on Mr. Poilievre, even if more of his caucus leaves. The political dynamics of a majority government are much different from the dynamics of a minority government. He would have the luxury of just waiting out the Liberal surge and then attempt to take advantage of any downturn they experience. Without the prospect of a snap election he would have the luxury of time.

All of that will not reduce the extreme angst of Maple MAGA however so expect them to really lose their shit in the coming weeks if the by-elections results from tomorrow night play out as expected.