Surprising no one the Liberals secured a majority government last night by sweeping the three by-elections. Then again, the victory in Terrebonne was not a foregone result but they still won.
For the first time in decades these by-elections actually had a profound impact on Canada's politics. On Monday morning Mark Carney was leading a minority government and by midnight he was leading a majority government. However, that is the only significance of the results of last night's by-elections.
Of course, that is not stopping people from asserting that the results have much bigger implications for Canadian politics.
The Conservatives underperformed compared to the 2025 general election so I am seeing some commentators stating that this could spell the end of the Conservative Party of Canada.
I saw one NDP supporter cheer the fact that the NDP overperformed in one of the Toronto ridings by over 10 points, compared to the 2025 general election, and that person was cheering the the "NDP are back!" They still lost by over 40 points but that did not dim this person's enthusiasm.
I say this after all by-elections. They are wrong. You cannot make these kinds of assertions based on their results. By-elections are a different beast from general elections, on several levels, so trying to extrapolate their results to the broader political landscape is silly and actually asserting that they are a harbinger of how the next general election will turn out is bordering on the criminal. (Not really but....)
These were the most significant by-elections in decades because they changed the nature of the government. However, that is the only conclusion you can draw from them. Any other assertions on the broader Canadian politics is drivel, and often self-serving drivel.
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