The Polls are Still Ridiculous

I have stated many times in this space that I never believe the polls. They can sometimes be a useful tool to get a general sense of things but they should never be taken as the true picture of the political situation in this country.

If you want to receive the truer picture of how things are look at what the parties are doing.

During an election campaign I find the best way to do that is to watch the leaders speak with the sound turned off. Nothing they say is important because most just follow talking points. However, with the sound off you can read their facial expressions and body language without distraction.

Looking at Mark Carney's I would say that the Liberal Party's data analytics team is probably agreeing with what the media polls are saying. They are in the lead with a reasonably comfortable cushion. He is relaxed and natural at the podium and there are no fear or anxiety markers on his face or in this body language. He can probably thank Donald Trump for that and he should be really thankful because his campaign so far has been lackluster. It lacks vision, being just a campaign where he throws out random policy promises. Make no mistake, most of his policies ideas are good ones but they are not being held together by an overarching theme or vision. If Donald Trump was not looming over the election he would probably be hard pressed to push back any desire for change.

Looking at Pierre Poilievre I would say his data analytics team agrees with their Liberal counterparts. He looks terrible at the podium. His smile is pasted on but the rest of his face is stuck in a permanent frown. The way he moves at the podium would also indicate that he is not having fun. It is true that he just might not like being at that podium but he has stood behind many when it appeared he would win the election and his body language and face were much different. His campaign is just as lackluster as the Liberal one. It is also completely lacking in any overarching theme or vision. However, he has the advantage of the Liberals being in power for a decade. Without Donald Trump all he would have had to do this time is try to appear non-threatening and he would be on his way to a possible election victory. At the very least it would probably be alot closer than it appears to be.

Mr. Singh looks like he is phoning it in. Enough said.

Mr. Blanchette is not looking happy either. Quebecers have always feared the US more than Canada because it is a big English speaking country to their south. They know that if the US wanted to throw its weight around on the continent the French language would be one of the first victims. Therefore, even the most ardent separatist is looking for the federalist party that will most protect against that. Most Quebecers have heard the anti-French rhetoric from the Reform wing of the CPC and they know that the NDP has no chance of forming a government so the Liberals probably look pretty good right now.

If I were to guess the current political situation in the campaign I would say that the Liberals are indeed in the "driver's seat" and that it is their election to lose at this point. Neither the Liberals or the Conservatives are running good campaigns but so far the fear of Donald Trump appears to be trumping any desire for change in the country. This is to the Liberals' advantage. Although my head says that could change my gut is increasingly saying that it will not change quickly enough for the Conservatives to win the election.

Donald Trump is not Going Anywhere

I have been reading some Conservative commentators on social media and they are stating that the policies being presented by the CPC have the potential to turn things around for them. One commentator even stated that they could take voters' mind off of Donald Trump.

As a Liberal supporter I really hope the Conservatives go with that idea. As the political animal that I am I believe it is nuts to make such an assertion.

This election is shaping up to be like the 1988 Free Trade election. The Liberals, the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (Yes there were only three parties then.) all presented great and not-so-great policy proposals. As well, each party leader committed gaffes that would have caused them trouble in typical election campaigns. However, they were largely ignored because Canadians were riled up by the FTA between Canada and the US. For context this was the precursor to the NAFTA. The country was very divided on the issue and it dominated that election, squeezing out every other consideration.

This election is shaping up to be the Donald Trump election. That is, Canadians are riled up by his words and actions towards Canada and they are going to dominate the campaign. He seems to have looked away from Canada for now, focusing more on Greenland, but Canadians are not going to forget what he has been saying and doing to Canada by the end of the campaign. And that will be reinforced because Donald Trump is not going to stop talking or acting like a lunatic. He will be constantly in the headlines and that will remind Canadians of how much of a threat he is to Canada's interests on a daily basis.

Any political party that believes otherwise is setting themselves up for a fall. Canadians are justifiably anxious about how Donald Trump could impact their future and they are looking to the Liberals and the Conservatives (sorry NDP) to see how they are going to address the Trump threat. So far the Conservatives have ceded that ground to the Liberals and as long as they do nothing else they say or do will have a positive impact on their election chances. 

I do believe that the Liberals can lose this election but only if the Conservatives begin to address that orange elephant in the room in a meaningful way. If they do not then in all probability this will not be a change election.

What will be the Ballot Question?

For every election political commentators always ask what will be the ballot question for voters come election day.

They then assert all sorts of guesses; taxes, the environment, housing prices, social issues, you name it. 

They are all wrong. For every election of the last 50 years the ballot question has been "Do I want to change the government?". The one exception was the 1988 election when the ballot question was about whether Canadians wanted to ratify the Free Trade Agreement between the US and Canada. The answer was no but the no votes were split between the Liberals and the NDP and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada won. Their decision to proceed with the ratification despite a sizable majority of Canadians being against it was a big contributing factor to the eventual demise of the PCPC. 

This election was shaping up to be another election about whether Canadians wanted to change governments but Donald Trump threw a big wrench into that. Now it is looking more like the 1988 election because he has managed to make all about him and how the next Canadian government is going to handle him. That puts the Conservatives into a bit of a bind at several levels.

First, it cannot be denied that there is a certain affinity between the CPC and Donald Trump. They have shared political advisors, more than a few prominent Conservatives have been seen wearing MAGA hats and entertaining or being entertained by MAGA influencers. That creates serious questions amongst many Canadians of whether a CPC government can be trusted to look out for Canadian interests in its dealings with the Trump administration. Speaking to my Conservative neighbour about just that topic it would appear that many do not believe they will, which would explain why he has a Liberal sign on his lawn this time. Maybe the softer tone by Trump administration may mitigate this but I would not count on it. Regardless of his new tone he will be in the news every day for the remainder of the election campaign and that will not make the Conservatives' Donald Trump problem go away.

Donald Trump has reduced the desire for change in the country. Before his reelection there appeared to be some desire for change. I am not certain how intense it was. It is anecdotal evidence at best but I do know that while most of my Conservative family members did not like Justin Trudeau they also believed that Pierre Poilievre was an asshole. They absolutely hated the Trucker Convoy of a few years ago. They saw it as an insurrection and they are savvy enough to realize that Mr. Poilievre had a hand in it. (Me reminding them of that helped). So that desire for change was always soft. I do not trust polls that much but I will say that before Donald Trump the polls were saying that the desire for change was around 60% and that has since fallen to around 55%. If it stays that way for the remainder of the election campaign then the Liberals will win. If 40 to 45% of the electorate decide not to change the government that would probably result in a Liberal majority government because the remainder would be split between five other parties. For context during the last change election in 2015, pollster were indicating that the desire for change had hit the 70% mark just a few days before election day.

The Conservatives have another problem. They have made politics personal. In 2004 and 2006 they had the Sponsorship Scandal to hammer the Liberals with. However, once they gained power they stopped talking about Liberal policies and started targeting the leader of the party. They targeted Mr. Dion, Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Trudeau. In all three cases it took years to make Canadians dislike the Liberal leaders, including 10 years for Mr. Trudeau. They have a few short weeks to do the same thing to Mark Carney. The result is if there was a desire for change it was a desire for a change in PM, which has taken place. They essentially ignored the Liberal Party and what it was doing so any desire for change does not seem to be directed at the Liberal government per se.

So, the answer to my question is still going to be whether Canadians want to change the government. Right now I would say the answer is an emphatic no. That could change in the next few weeks. However, we will probably need to be seeing signs of it in the next week to 10 days. Otherwise, I would guess that the results of the election on April 28 will be a Liberal government.

An Assessment of Justin Trudeau's Time as Leader

Justin Trudeau has left politics. With the swearing in of Mark Carney as PM and the election call Mr. Trudeau has started his post politics life. As I usually do I am going to provide an assessment of his time as leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister.

I will acknowledge that I am biased. I thought he did a generally good job as PM and Liberal Party leader although he was certainly not perfect.

As party leader I have stated many times in this space that he deserves a great deal of credit for throwing the old party establishment in the dustbin and dragging the Liberal Party into the 21st century. I believe if he had not done that then the last decade would not have been a Liberal one.

However, he did seem to have serious issues with handling some of the personalities within his caucus. Jodi Raybould Wilson could have been dismissed as an aberration, the result of his ham fisted handling of a minister who may not have been a team player in the end. However, he was even more ham fisted with Christia Freeland, who demonstrated that she was very much of a team player through almost a decade in his cabinet. As well, his handling, or lack thereof, of the caucus revolt late last year was stunning. Another leader would have started dealing with that before it reached critical mass but it seemed he did nothing. Certainly he did not seem to try to employ the various tools available to party leaders to convince dissenters to mute their concerns.

As Prime Minister we can say that he did some good, bad and ugly things.

The Good

• The general approach to governing. His government tended to use evidence to make decisions instead of ideology and they were not afraid to make the tough choices even if it might cost them votes. We can only hope that succeeding governments live up to that standard.
• The Trudeau government was the most progressive government this country has had since Trudeau the Senior. The next government, regardless of who wins the next election, will not match that.
• The handling of the health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a masterclass of crisis management during a once in a century global crisis. The economic decisions of his government are the reason why we have one of the strongest economies on the planet. As well, if you are someone who receives a COVID shot each year you can thank the Trudeau government for that. They made certain to secure enough doses of the vaccines to provide for all Canadians until around 2035.
• The environmental polices of the Trudeau government. Although the Carbon Levy receives most of the attention it was just a small part of an very comprehensive and robust plan to tackle environmental issues. The Carbon Levy may be going but the rest is staying.
• The anti-poverty measures of the government. From the Child Care Benefit to the Dental benefit and $10 per day child care plan his government made great strides in reducing poverty and helping Canadians with paying for essential services.
• The government's handling of Donald Trump.

The Bad

• He bought a pipeline. The reason why he had to do so is because the economic case for that pipeline was so weak the private sector establishments that began it backed out. It was a purely political decision and it could have resulted in Canada owning a a giant white elephant. The second Trump presidency might have made it more economically viable but that could not have been foreseen when they decided to buy it.
• The government's communications was terrible. The media in this country is extremely hostile to the Liberals. That hostility predates Justin Trudeau's leadership. Just ask, Mr. Dion and Ignatieff about that. The government never adapted its communications to that reality. Interestingly we finally began to see better communication towards the end of PMJT's tenure but it was too little and certainly too late.
• The change to the Capital Gains tax was silly. While I agreed with it in principle its announcement and planned implementation were so poorly done that it only caused them grief for almost no benefit for Canadians. 
• The Trudeau government was way too slow in reacting to the precipitous rise in housing prices after the Pandemic. They had a very good housing strategy before it but they failed to review whether it was still valid after the Pandemic.

The Ugly

• Breaking the promise to change how we vote. While this issue only really appeals to a very small subset of the electorate it was still ugly. The funny thing is it could have been prevented and we could have had a new voting system since 2019 if Mr. Trudeau would have stuck to his first instincts. You may recall that he wanted to strike a Parliamentary committee to address this issue, where its membership would be set by the number of seats each party had in the House. Of course, the Opposition howled because that would have given the Liberal the majority on the committee. They demanded the composition be by the popular vote of the 2015 election instead and he caved. The rest was predictable. With no party having a majority and no party willing to compromise on what electoral reform would look like for them the Committee wasted over two years in fruitless debate before the government pulled the plug. I still wonder is Mr. Trudeau's decision to cave was a rookie mistake or a calculated move to make it look like he was trying to keep a promise he never had any intention of keeping.

In general, Justin Trudeau did a very good job as PM and the Leader of the Liberal Party. I am certain that he would do some things quite differently if he were given some do overs. However, he can take pride in the fact that he left the country is as good a shape as when he became PM (and some can argue it is in better shape). As well, he left the Liberal Party in good shape. It will be up to his successors to see if they can leverage that for the future.

Election 2025

The 2025 Federal election is off and running. So who is going to win?

Usually I feel comfortable answering that question but this time it is a tossup.

On the one hand, you have a governing party that has been such going on 10 years. Historical voting patterns would indicate that they really have very little chance of winning.

On the other hand, Donald Trump has upended politics almost everywhere, including Canada. His tariffs and his threats have totally changed the political dynamic in this country. Justin Trudeau, secure in the knowledge that he was going to be leaving public service, took the gloves off and challenged Donald Trump at every opportunity. His actions and demeanour during those first few weeks of Donald Trump's term gave upset Canadians something to rally around. Mark Carney is benefited from that right now. We will have to see if he can take advantage of it.

Helping him is the fact Pierre Poilievre seems not to have noticed the political dynamic has changed. He is still running the same campaign that he has been running since he won the leadership of the CPC three years ago. That might have worked when our relationship with the US was calm and uneventful and it could still be working is we were dealing with a President Harris but it does not currently look to be working with President Trump.

As well, this change in dynamic has resulted in things that were not very important a few months ago becoming important, namely probable Indian government interference in his election as leader of the CPC and his refusal to get a security clearance. A few months ago these were only important to those living in the Ottawa bubble but with Canadians being more fearful for our sovereignty the idea of foreign interference in our politics is taking on a greater significance outside of that bubble. Add to this the silliness of Danielle Smith talking to American alt-right commentators, in ways that make it look like her and Mr. Poilievre might not be so against Trump's threats to our sovereignty, is not helping the Conservative electoral fortunes. BTW, watching Ms. Smith just further demonstrates that you could dress a rock in Conservative clothing in that province and they would vote for it. The utter extent of her political tone deafness proves to me that if she would have tried to win an election in any other province of this country she would have lost big.

So three days into the campaign the media polls are showing the Liberals are in a comfortable lead, with seat counts anywhere from 180 to over 200 seats being in play. I do not believe any media poll but it should be noted that the Liberals are looking comfortable while the Conservatives are looking increasingly uncomfortable. I believe that indicates that their data analytics teams are showing the media polls are not totally out to lunch.

So I would say the the early advantage goes to the Liberals. However, the two dynamics that could decide this election is the desire for change from the Liberals after 10 years and the fear of Donald Trump. If the first one prevails on April 28 then the Conservatives will win. If the second one prevails then the Liberals are best placed to take advantage of that and they will probably win. 

Please do not ask me which dynamic will prevail in the end.

Polling Correction

The alternative title for this post could also be: I told you so.

The latest media polls are indicating that the Conservatives and the Liberals are essentially tied, with at least one poll indicating that the Liberals have taken a slim lead. This should surprise no one.

The polls indicating that the Conservatives were up by 20 points were never credible and they were always going to change in favour of the Liberals. We know this because minority governments that find themselves down by 20 points do not continue to govern for over a year after the polls say as much. At no time during the last 18 months has there ever been a credible threat to the Liberals in the House of Commons.

Many are saying that the reason for the change in the polls is the resignation of Justin Trudeau, the threatening stupidity of Donald Trump and the rise of Mark Carney. This is not completely true. If Justin Trudeau had not resigned the polls would be doing the exact same thing they are doing now. The only difference is the stupidity of Donald Trump has caused the change to be more rapid than it would have normally. 

Justin Trudeau was not an unpopular as the pollster stated and Pierre Poilievre is still a politician with all of the charisma of an angry turnip with absolutely no political instincts or acumen. When an election finally seemed imminent, which it did just before the New Year, the pollsters had to engineer the polling correction to maintain their credibility. If they would have been as far off as they would have been they would have lost all credibility, which would have impacted their paying business lines.

As well, as I stated a year ago the convergence of the polls has caused the "collapse" of Conservative support to become a big story. Even Conservative friendly media outlets have been commenting on it, although their columnists have been trying to spin it as positively as possible. This kind of narrative is not good for the Conservatives if they really do want to trigger an election this spring. 

A word of caution though. The Liberals are in year 10 of being in power. Historical voting patterns indicate that governments are operating on borrowed time after year 8. The Liberals are going to have their work cut out for them and they could very well lose, despite the recent good news. 

Polls are useless and latest ones are no different in that regard. However, the media love them to spin narratives and the latest one should worry the Conservatives. 

Bold Prediction

Donald Trump will not be president this time next year.

There is no way his bull in the china shop routine can last more than a few months before something gives.

The 25th Amendment will probably be the means of his departure but I would not rule out other more extreme means.

Don't Blame MAGA for Electing Trump

MAGA was always going to vote for Donald Trump. That was to be expected and they lived up to expectations. As I stated weeks ago they showed up but they did not increase in number. Donald Trump received roughly the same number of votes in 2024 as he did in 2020 and 2016 for that matter.

The reason why Donald Trump won is because millions of Democratic voters who voted for Joe Biden did not bother to vote. The reason for that is still being debated but if anybody believes that Kamala Harris' skin colour and gender was not a factor I would like them to contact me. I am looking for investors to build a bridge between Tokyo and Victoria, BC and you seem like prime candidates.

Democratic voters who stayed home on election day are the reason why Donald Trump won the election. They are also the reason why the Republicans won both Chambers of Congress as well. So if you want to blame someone for Donald Trump's election blame them.

Please Stop

Just stop comparing the modern United States to the Weimer Republic.

I have been seeing these comparison by people as a way for them to demonstrate that the US is going down the same path as Weimer Germany, which of course led to the rise of Adolph Hitler. They state that Hitler was elected and we all know what happened afterwards.

While I like the attempt at not reliving history the comparison is so superficial that it serves no real purpose except to frighten people.

Looking deeper you can see the comparison does not hold up.

First, the Weimer Republic was a 14 year democratic experiment that replaced a centuries old autocratic system, in Germany, after the First World War. In other words Germany had no democratic tradition before 1919. The German people were used to being ruled by an autocrat, they had no idea how to "do democracy" and they had no idea how to prevent going back to autocracy, assuming they wanted to prevent it. Of course, the United States is one of the oldest democracies in the world. It has had almost 250 years to develop, nurture and build that democracy. Anybody who believes that it could be overthrown by a wannabe autocrat that easily is very much mistaken.

Second, the Weimer government was the only government that had any power in Germany after 1919. Therefore, the Nazis only had to focus on it. They did not have to worry about other people in Germany having other power bases that could compete with theirs. The United States is a federal system. They have 50 individual power bases in their 50 states. Some of them might agree with Donald Trump and they might even accept autocracy but what they will not do is give up any of their own power to achieve it. Meanwhile there are many states with people who would actively resist the US reverting to autocracy with whatever tools they could lay their hands on. And that does not even touch on the various power bases within the Federal government who could work against any efforts to overthrow American democracy.

Third, Weimer Germany was the result of the Treaty of Versailles, which was designed to humiliate Germany and the Germans after the First World War. It beggared the German people and ironically created a true united German nationalism. Before the Treaty most Germans identified with their region of Germany, such as being Prussian, Saxon or Bavarian. After the Treaty they began to think of themselves as Germans. So when the Nazis came along the German people were ready to hear and support the Nazi message of reestablishing German pride and power and they united behind them. It is interesting, Hitler won just over 30% of the vote in 1933. If he would have allowed elections to take place, as scheduled, in 1937 he would have won a majority of the vote, possibly a landslide. The US is divided, probably more divided than it has been since the end of the US Civil War. What it means to be American is no longer agreed upon by its people. If one person or group of Americans tries to overthrow the current democratic order they will be resisted and fought by other groups who disagree with them.

Finally, Adolph Hitler was an evil, hate filled son of a bitch. However, he was also a shrewd politician with a well defined plan to achieve his goals and the discipline to stay focused and carry through on those plans. He also surrounded himself with a cadre of capable men who could assist him in achieving his goals. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has the attention span and temperament of an enraged toddler. He may have delusions of becoming a dictator but he lacks the wherewithal to achieve it and the people he has hired that could assist them are about as intelligent as he is, which is to say not very intelligent at all.

So, making the claim that US democracy is in mortal danger from Donald Trump because he was elected, as Hitler was in 1933, is just wrong on so many levels. I would remind you that the founders of the United States designed a government with the primary purpose of preventing one of them from setting themselves up as a king. After almost 250 years that system is still pretty much intact so a would be king is going to find it difficult to become one.

That is not to say that Mr. Trump and some of his more capable people could not pull it off but it would take years to do it and they do not have that kind of time. They have about six months. At that point the internal data analytics within the Republican Party will begin to show the beginning of a surge in support for the Democrats. A surge, that if left unchecked, would sweep the Republicans out of power in the House and the Senate. The Republican leaders in both Chambers will want to prevent that and their only real chance of doing so will be to distance themselves from Donald Trump, and begin to obstruct some of is agenda. We saw that from the end of 2017 to the mid-term elections of 2018 during Mr. Trump's first term. And that was when his more baser instincts were kept in check by some of the people around him. They are long gone and he has surrounded himself with yes men who will make no attempt to urge him to moderate. The result will be a huge backlash that we will see in November of 2026. Once that happens and Congress is in the hands of the Democrats the Trump Presidency will essentially be at an end and any further attempts to overthrow America's democracy will end with it.

The next few months are going to be difficult and Donald Trump and his group of village idiots will do untold damage to the US and its people. However, despite his desires, he will not be able to overturn American democracy before changes in the political situation in the country begin to frustrate those desires. When you add that to the total lack of discipline on his part the more likely outcome of the next few years of the Trump presidency will be a Democratic Congress in 2026 and them adding the White House in 2028.