It has been expected for weeks that the Ukrainians would launch a summer offensive but it was also expected that they would launch it at the static front in Eastern Ukraine. Instead they attached North into Russia itself.
A couple of things.
First, the fact the Ukrainians could launch the offensive and encounter little to no resistance is a testament to Russian hubris. They firmly believed that the Ukrainians would never have the temerity to actually launch ground operations into Russia itself so they never actually defended against such a possibility. Make no mistake, if they had the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Region would have been nothing more than a raid in force, ending almost as soon as it began.
This could change the strategic situation on the ground somewhat. With this incursion the Russians are going to have to spread their troops a little thinner to prevent a repeat of it after the Ukrainians finally withdraw. Up until now the Russians could concentrate their forces in the Donbass region, effectively outnumbering the Ukrainians at the point of attack. Now they are going to have to put more troops on the other borders with Ukraine. Where are those troops going to come from? They will either come from Eastern Ukraine for from Russia itself. In the first instance that will lead to the weakening of the Russian lines in the East and in the second instance it will lead to less reinforcements being available to replace the losses they have been experiencing in the the war of attrition taking place in the east. Either way, things just got harder for Russian commanders.
The question that this incursion does not answer is whether the Ukrainians, with their superior equipment, training and morale, can outlast the Russians, with their greater number of soldiers and their total lack of concern about casualties. That has been the question of this war since it began.
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